Global Epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease and the Importation Risk into China: An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method

Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976–2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the diseaseoutbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively.Results From 1976–2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases(14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate(85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease.The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk(23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone,Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co te d’Ivoire.Conclusion China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.

Comparative Analysis of Pythagorean MCDM Methods for the Risk Assessment of Childhood Cancer

According to the World Health Organization(WHO),cancer is the leading cause of death for children in low and middle-income countries.Around 400,000 kids get diagnosed with this illness each year,and their survival rate depends on the country in which they live.In this article,we present a Pythagorean fuzzy model that may help doctors identify the most likely type of cancer in children at an early stage by taking into account the symptoms of different types of cancer.The Pythagorean fuzzy decision-making techniques that we utilize are Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS,Pythagorean Fuzzy Entropy(PF-Entropy),and Pythagorean Fuzzy PowerWeighted Geometric(PFPWG).Ourmodel is fed with nineteen symptoms and it diagnoses the risk of eight types of cancers in children.We develop an algorithm for each method and calculate its complexity.Additionally,we consider an example to make a clear understanding of our model.We also compare the final results of various tests that prove the authenticity of this study.

GIS Application in Urban Flood Risk Analysis: Midar as a Case Study

The significance of this study lies in its exploration of the advanced applications of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing urban flood risks, with a specific focus on Midar, Morocco. This research is pivotal as it showcases that GIS technology is not just a tool for mapping, but a critical component in urban planning and emergency management strategies. By meticulously identifying and mapping flood-prone areas in Midar, the study provides invaluable insights into the potential vulnerabilities of urban landscapes to flooding. Moreover, this research demonstrates the practical utility of GIS in mitigating material losses, a significant concern in flood-prone urban areas. The proactive approach proposed in this study, centered around the use of GIS, aims to safeguard Midar’s population and infrastructure from the devastating impacts of floods. This approach serves as a model for other urban areas facing similar challenges, highlighting the indispensable role of GIS in disaster preparedness and response. Overall, the study underscores the transformative potential of GIS in enhancing urban resilience, making it a crucial tool in the fight against natural disasters like floods.

Application of combination weighting method in contract risk's evaluation of third party logistics

First,the analytical hierarchy process(AHP),which stands for the subjective weighting method,and the entropy method,which stands for the objective weighting method,are chosen to calculate the index weights of the contract risks of third party logistics(TPL),respectively.Then,they can determine the combination weights using the combination weighting method.Second,using the combination weights,the contract risks of TPL are evaluated through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.According to the combination weights,the most important risk factor of the contract risks of TPL is choosing sub-contractors.The results are basically consistent with the facts and show that the weights determined by the combination weighting method can avoid the man-made deviations of the subjective weighting method on the one hand,and prevent results opposite to the reality brought about by the objective weighting method on the other hand.Meanwhile,the results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are that the contract risks of TPL are at a high risk level.Roughly this matches real situations,and it indicates that the combination weighting method can generate the comprehensive assessment more scientifically and more reasonably as well.

Risk Assessment of Diary Cattle Brucellosis Based on Systematic Multilevel Grey Relation Entropy Method

[Objective] The study was to explore the major factors affecting diary cattle brucellosis risk assessment,as well as their strong-to-weak sequence,so as to provide theoretical basis for assessing diary cattle brucellosis risk level in different regions.[Method] From 4 dimensions of feeding and importing,breeding,housing and polyculture situation,an evaluation index system was set up,and diary cattle brucellosis risk survey was conducted in 3 typical regions.Finally,systematic multilevel grey relation entropy method was applied to perform data analysis.[Result] The strong-to-weak sequence of Level 1 impact factor of diary cattle brucellosis was as follows：feeding and importinghousingpolyculture situationbreeding;the sequence of Level 2 impact factor was U32〉U12〉U11〉U31〉U21〉U42〉U43〉U23〉U22〉U41;the risk level sequence of 3 typical regions was Province A（County A1,A2,A3）Province B（County B1,B2,B3）Province C（County C1,C2,C3）.[Conclusion] According to the weight of Level 1 index strata,administrative departments at all levels and dairy cattle farmers should lay emphasis on the aspects of feeding,importing and housing;viewed from the perspective of Level 2 index strata,dairy cattle farmers should value the siting of cattle field,the brucellosis surveillance before importing and milking modes most.According to the diary cattle brucellosis risk level of 3 typical regions,if administrative departments at all levels strengthen peoples＇ awareness of their personal health and increase investment in this area,with new healthy cultured atmosphere built,the risk level of diary cattle brucellosis will surly decline.

Risk identification and risk mitigation during metro station construction by enlarging shield tunnel combined with cut-and-cover method

Constructing a metro station by enlarging shield tunnels combined with a mining/cut-and-cover method provides a new method to solve the contradictions of construction time limits of shield tunnels and stations. As a new-style construction method, there are several specific risks involved in the construction process. Based on the test section of Sanyuanqiao station on Beijing metro line 10, and combined with the existing methods of risk identification at present, including a review of world-wide operational experience of similar projects, the study of generic guidance on hazards associated with the type of work being undertaken, and discussions with qualified and experienced staff from the project team, etc., the specific risks during the construction process of the metro station constructed by enlarging shield tunnels combined with the cut-and-cover method are identified. The results show that the specific risks mainly come from three construction processes which include constructing upper enclosure structures, excavating the soil between shield tunnels and demolishing shield segments. Then relevant risk mitigation measures are put forward. The results can provide references for scheme improvement and a comprehensive risk assessment of the new-style construction method.

A RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD OF THE WIRELESS NETWORK SECURITY

The core of network security is the risk assessment. In this letter,a risk assessment method is introduced to estimate the wireless network security. The method,which combines Analytic Hier-archy Process (AHP) method and fuzzy logical method,is applied to the risk assessment. Fuzzy logical method is applied to judge the important degree of each factor in the aspects of the probability,the influence and the uncontrollability,not to directly judge the important degree itself. The risk as-sessment is carved up 3 layers applying AHP method,the sort weight of the third layer is calculated by fuzzy logical method. Finally,the important degree is calculated by AHP method. By comparing the important degree of each factor,the risk which can be controlled by taking measures is known. The study of the case shows that the method can be easily used to the risk assessment of the wireless network security and its results conform to the actual situation.

Research Progress in Occupational Health Risk Assessment Methods in China

Traditional occupational disease control and prevention has remained prevalent in China over recent decades. There are appropriately 30,000 new case reports of occupational diseases annually. Although China has already established a series of occupational disease prevention programs, occupational health risk assessment （OHRA） strategies continue to be a limitation.

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI

Hazard factors, hazard-bearling objects, disaster-developing environment, and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone （TC） disasters. Of all of these, the most important is the intensity of hazard factors （risk sources）. In this study, this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors; then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors. The exceedance probability of various hazard factors, including frequency and timing, scope of wind and rain, and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases, are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai fi＇om 1959-2006. The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed, and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results. The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai. The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model, and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster. Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa （0716） would be more serious than those by TC Wipha （0713）, and that TC Fung Wong （0808） would have a weak impact. Real-life situations validate these results.

Risk calculation method for complex engineering system

This paper presents a rapid and simple risk calculation method for large and complex engineering systems, the simulated maximum entropy method （SMEM）, which is based on integration of the advantages of the Monte Carlo and maximum entropy methods, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the slow convergence rate of the Monte Carlo method in risk calculation. Application of SMEM in the calculation of reservoir flood discharge risk shows that this method can make full use of the known information under the same conditions and obtain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It not only greatly improves the speed, compared with the Monte Carlo method, but also provides a new approach for the risk calculation in large and complex engineering systems.

Analytical Methods for Environmental Risk Assessment of Acid Sulfate Soils: A Review

Assessment of acid sulfate soil risk is an important step for acid sulfate soil management and its reliability depends very much on the suitability and accuracy of various analytical methods for estimating sulfide-derived potential acidity, actual acidity and acid-neutralizing capacity in acid sulfate soils. This paper critically reviews various analytical methods that are currently used for determination of the above parameters, as well as their implications for environmental risk assessment of acid sulfate soi1s.

A Fault Risk Warning Method of Integrated Energy Systems Based on RelieF-Softmax Algorithm

The integrated energy systems,usually including electric energy,natural gas and thermal energy,play a pivotal role in the energy Internet project,which could improve the accommodation of renewable energy through multienergy complementary ways.Focusing on the regional integrated energy system composed of electrical microgrid and natural gas network,a fault risk warning method based on the improved RelieF-softmax method is proposed in this paper.The raw data-set was first clustered by the K-maxmin method to improve the preference of the random sampling process in the RelieF algorithm,and thereby achieved a hierarchical and non-repeated sampling.Then,the improved RelieF algorithm is used to identify the feature vectors,calculate the feature weights,and select the preferred feature subset according to the initially set threshold.In addition,a correlation coefficient method is applied to reduce the feature subset,and further eliminate the redundant feature vectors to obtain the optimal feature subset.Finally,the softmax classifier is used to obtain the early warnings of the integrated energy system.Case studies are conducted on an integrated energy system in the south of China to demonstrate the accuracy of fault risk warning method proposed in this paper.

Risk assessments of debris flow based on improved analytic hierarchy process and efficacy coefficient method

In order to evaluate the danger of debris flow properly, eight factors were selected as the risk assess- ment indexes of the debris flow, namely the vertical slope, valley relative difference, hillside slope, area of ba- sin, loose solid material reserves, the path length of sediment supply probability, silting and scouring derrieking and vegetation coverage. The improved Analytic Hierarchy Process （ AHP ） method was used to obtain the weights of the factors; and the efficacy coefficient method was adopted to evaluate the risks of six typical debris flow gullies. According to the research, the improved AHP method not only avoids the subjectivity in the indi- vidual factor valuation by comparing two factors of each layer, but also makes the subsequent consistency check unnecessary.

Risk Assessment Framework and Algorithm of Power Systems Based on the Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Method

针对平均风险指标无法区分高损失-低概率事件及低损失-高概率事件的缺点,提出了电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架。该框架将电力系统的风险状态细分为低损失、中等损失和高损失3个风险范围,并提出3个损失范围条件风险函数和条件风险概率的概念。采用经典的容量停运表模型,建立了这些条件期望指标的计算方法。对IEEE-RTS及TH-RTS2000系统进行了分割多目标风险评估,研究不同负荷水平下系统风险在3个损失范围的分布及转移情况,并分析损失分割点对系统风险的影响。通过分割多目标风险分析,风险分析者和决策者可以权衡系统的平均风险以及高、中、低损失范围的条件期望风险,从而对系统的风险状况有一个全面和深入的了解。

Indoor air quality risk assessment on the Canadian campus by a multilevel integrated weighted average method

Increasing incidents of indoor air quality(IAQ) related complaints lead us to the fact that IAQ has become a significant occupational health and environmental issue. However, how to effectively evaluate IAQ under different scale of multiple indicators is still a challenge. The traditional single-indicator method is subjected to uncertainties in assessing IAQ due to different subjectivity on good or bad quality and scalar differences of data set. In this study, a multilevel integrated weighted average IAQ method including initial walking through assessment(IWA) and two-layers weighted average method are developed and applied to evaluate IAQ of the laboratory building at the University of Regina in Canada. Some important chemical parameters related to IAQ in terms of volatile organic compounds(VOCs), methanol(HCHO), carbon dioxide(CO2), and carbon monoxide(CO) are evaluated based on 5 months continuous monitoring data. The new integrated assessment result can not only indicates the risk of an individual parameter, but also able to quantify the overall IAQ risk on the sampling site. Finally, some recommendations based on the result are proposed to address sustainable IAQ practices in the sampling area.

2022 Multiple-country Monkeypox Outbreak and Its Importation Risk into China:An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method

Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epidemic and calculated concentration index to measure economic-related inequality.Importation risk into China was evaluated and ranked by using risk matrix method and Borda count method,respectively.Results As of July 29,2022,of 79 countries or territories,39(49.37%,39/79),17(21.52%,17/79),6(7.59%,6/79),12(15.19%,12/79),and 5(6.33%,5/79)country or territories identified cases<10,10-,51-,101-,and>1,000.There were economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of cases(the concentration index=0.42,P=0.027),and the inequality disadvantageous to the rich(pro-poor).There were 12(15.38%,12/78),15(19.23%,15/78),6(7.69%,6/78),and 45(57.69%,45/78)countries or territories with extremely high,high,moderate,and low importation risk.United States and France ranked first with the highest Borda points of 156,and counts of zero.Conclusion Of 78 countries or territories,the key attention need be paid to the United States and France,relatively.As the epidemic progresses,preparing prevention and control measures to further reduce importation risk was crucial.

Application of the Bottom-up Method on Risk Evaluation of Climate Change in Water Resources System

Traditional approach to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources systems always begins with downscaling general circulation models( GCMs) and proceeding back to the hydrological model. This approach has some distinct disadvantages: 1) GCM must be downscaled; 2) different GCMs are difficult to be reconciled for a given climate change scenario;3) the uncertainty of GCMs is far from the requirement of the evaluation of climate change impacts. To overcome these limits of the traditional method,a new method termed as "bottom-up"was used for climate risk assessment that linked vulnerability assessment with climate information to assess the risk of climate change impacts on the Quabbin Reservoir,and United States under A2 scenario.The result shows that the risks are around 20% in 2006-2035 and 2036-2055,50% in 2066-2095.

The Methodology of Risk Assessment in the Planning of Construction Projects

Any investment project bears some burden of risk. An investor who plans to carry out a building investment must be aware of the hazards that can be encountered while pursuing the project. Risk analysis can be supported by multi-criteria methods, which allow the user to assess the risk level while taking into account various risk-affecting factors. The aim of this article is to present and compare methods for estimating the level of risk. The article shows an example of risk assessment using methods Preliminary Hazard Assessment, Hazard Matrix and the method not used to this type of calculation Indicator method. Conducted in Article calculations show the possibility of using methods from the group of multi-criteria analysis and the results show the usefulness of the methodology developed by the author. This analysis involves a construction development designed for the tourism business. This is an interesting example due to the specific nature of the object and its location. The calculations take into account the difficult implementation conditions and the results show what you should pay attention to when planning investment.

Urban flood risk assessment under rapid urbanization in Zhengzhou City,China

With accelerated urbanization and climate change,urban flooding is becoming more and more serious.Flood risk assessment is an important task for flood management,so it is crucial to map the spatial and temporal distribution of flood risk.This paper proposed an urban flood risk assessment method that takes into account the influences of hazard,vulnerability,and exposure,by constructing a multi-index urban flood risk assessment framework based on Geographic Information System(GIS).To determine the weight values of urban flood risk index factors,we used the analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Also,we plotted the temporal and spatial distribution maps of flood risk in Zhengzhou City in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020.The analysis results showed that,the proportion of very high and high flood risk zone in Zhengzhou City was 1.362%,5.270%,4.936%,12.151%,and 24.236%in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020,respectively.It is observed that the area of high flood risk zones in Zhengzhou City showed a trend of increasing and expanding,of which Dengfeng City,Xinzheng City,Xinmi City,and Zhongmu County had the fastest growth rate and the most obvious increase.The flood risk of Zhengzhou City has been expanding with the development of urbanization.The method is adapted to Zhengzhou City and will have good adaptability in other research areas,and its risk assessment results can provide a scientific reference for urban flood management personnel.In the future,the accuracy of flood risk assessment can be further improved by promoting the accuracy of basic data and reasonably determining the weight values of index factors.The risk zoning map can better reflect the risk distribution and provide a scientific basis for early warning of flood prevention and drainage.

Prioritizing real estate enterprises based on credit risk assessment:an integrated multi‑criteria group decision support framework

Credit risk assessment involves conducting a fair review and evaluation of an assessed subject’s solvency and creditworthiness.In the context of real estate enterprises,credit risk assessment provides a basis for banks and other financial institutions to choose suitable investment objects.Additionally,it encourages real estate enterprises to abide by market norms and provide reliable information for the standardized management of the real estate industry.However,Chinese real estate companies are hesitant to disclose their actual operating data due to privacy concerns,making subjective evalu-ation approaches inevitable,occupying important roles in accomplishing Chinese real estate enterprise credit risk assessment tasks.To improve the normative and reliability of credit risk assessment for Chinese real estate enterprises,this study proposes an integrated multi-criteria group decision-making approach.First,a credit risk assessment index for Chinese real estate enterprises is established.Then,the proposed framework combines proportional hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation II methods.This approach is suitable for processing large amounts of data with high uncertainty,which is often the case in credit risk assessment tasks of Chinese real estate enterprises involving massive subjec-tive evaluation information.Finally,the proposed model is validated through a case study accompanied by sensitivity and comparative analyses to verify its rationality and feasibility.This study contributes to the research on credit assessment for Chinese real estate enterprises and provides a revised paradigm for real estate enterprise credit risk assessment.