Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during t...Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.展开更多
Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions ...Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration;and 3） analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey.Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.展开更多
基金the National Social Sciences Foundation Program "A Study on the Effects of Changing Demographic Structure on China's Economic Deceleration and Countermeasures"
文摘Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.
文摘Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration;and 3） analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey.Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.
