Research on the Impact of Innovation Drivers on the Quality of Economic Growth in China

The quality of economic growth is a prominent issue in the process of economic growth worldwide.This paper builds relevant econometric models and uses the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2015 to analyze the impact of innovation drivers on China’s economic growth.The empirical results show that technological innovation and institutional innovation have a significant role in promoting the quality of China’s economic growth,and the effect of institutional innovation is stronger than that of technological innovation.In terms of regions,the innovation driver has the greatest contribution to the quality of economic growth in the eastern region of China,with the western and central parts ranking second and third.However,the role of institutional innovation in the eastern region is prominent,and the role of technological innovation is weak.Only institutional innovation in the central region has a significant role in promoting the quality of economic growth.Only technological innovation in the western region has a positive effect on the quality of economic growth,and the impact is weak.The regional differences in the impact of innovation-driven economic growth are obvious.

Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.

Information Models for Forecasting Nonlinear Economic Dynamics in the Digital Era

The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5th information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6th LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.

The Impacts of the Growth of the Three Industries and Industrial Price Structural Changes on China’s Economic Growth between 1952 and 2019

This paper focuses on the impacts and effects of China’s growth of the three industries and price structural change on the real GDP growth rate.First of all,it presents a new accounting method for decomposing growth rates on the basis of existing accounting method for decomposing growth rates.By using this method,we can identify the impacts and effects of structural changes on the growth rate.The paper uses a new decomposition method to recalculate China’s industry-based real GDP growth rates between 1952 and 2019,focuses on the driving effect of growth of the three industries on the real GDP growth,and the impacts of price structural change on GDP growth rate and the contributin of the growth of the three industries on GDP growth rate.By analysis,this paper shows that between 1952 and 2019 China’s economic growth was mainly driven by the secondary industry,which had contributed to the economic growth by over 50%,the role of the tertiary industry in driving economic growth rose,but that of the secondary industry declined over the time;in the short run,the overall effect of the price structural changes of the three industries has a little impact on the economic growth,but the price change of each industry has strong effects,and the price structural change has signifi cantly changed the effect of the growth of the three industries on the real economic growth;in the long term,the price structural change plays a relatively big hindering effect on economic growth due to the Baumol’s cost disease.

A New Era of Economic Growth

The China Economic Growth Forum(2003),which was held for two days,has closed.The famous economists and entrepreneurscoming from China and abroad as well as the high-ranking officials of the Chinese government have achieved the commonunderstanding on some important economic issues.One aspect of the common understanding is that China’s economic growthhas entered a new stage or a new era.An important reason why this common understanding has been achieved is that more and more people have noticed the greatchanges,which have taken place in the conditions supporting China’s economic growth.These changes have been shown at leastin six respects:(1)The deep going changes have taken place in the system mechanism which supports China’s economic growth.

China’s transitioning class identity

China’s rapid economic transformation is similar in some ways to those that have occurred in other East Asian nations.But the changing structure of perceived class identity that occurs in many rapidly growing economies is found to be absent in China,and in fact as China has continued to grow such change as has occurred is found to be downward,despite the immense material improvement there.Objective data on income distribution in China do not explain this phenomenon,but anomalies in China’s urban real-estate market might.