Impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources in the Ebinur Lake Basin, Northwest China

Changing climatic conditions and extensive human activities have influenced the global water cycle.In recent years,significant changes in climate and land use have degraded the watershed ecosystem of the Ebinur Lake Basin in Xinjiang,Northwest China.In this paper,variations of runoff,temperature,precipitation,reference evapotranspiration,lake area,socio-economic water usage,groundwater level and water quality in the Ebinur Lake Basin from 1961 to 2015 were systematically analyzed by the Mann-Kendall test methods(M-K)mutation test,the cumulative levelling method,the climate-sensitive method and land-use change index.In addition,we evaluated the effects of human activities on land use change and water quality.The results reveal that there was a significant increase in temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2015,despite a decrease in reference evapotranspiration.The Wenquan station was not significantly affected by human activities as it is situated at a higher altitude.Runoff at this station increased significantly with climate warming.In contrast,runoff at the Jinghe station was severely affected by numerous human activities.Runoff decreased without obvious fluctuations.The contributions of climate change to runoff variation at the Jinghe and Wenquan stations were 46.87%and 58.94%,respectively;and the contributions of human activities were 53.13%and 41.06%,respectively.Land-use patterns in the basin have changed significantly between 1990 and 2015:urban and rural constructed lands,saline-alkali land,bare land,cultivated land,and forest land have expanded,while areas under grassland,lake,ice/snow and river/channel have declined.Human activities have dramatically intensified land degradation and desertification.From 1961 to 2015,both the inflow into the Ebinur Lake and the area of the lake have declined year by year;groundwater levels have dropped significantly,and the water quality has deteriorated during the study period.In the oasis irrigation area below the runoff pass,human activities mainly influenced the utilization mode and quantity of water resources.Changes in the hydrology and quantity of water resources were driven primarily by the continuous expansion of cultivated land and oasis,as well as the growth of population and the construction of hydraulic engineering projects.After 2015,the effects of some ecological protection projects were observed.However,there was no obvious sign of ecological improvement in the basin,and some environmental problems continue to persist.On this basis,this study recommends that the expansion of oasis should be limited according to the carrying capacity of the local water bodies.Moreover,in order to ensure the ecological security of the basin,it is necessary to determine the optimal oasis area for sustainable development and improve the efficiency of water resources exploitation and utilization.

Influence of climate change and human activity on water resources in arid region of Northwest China: An overview

This study reviews the latest progress in research on climate change and water resources in the arid region of Northwest China, analyzes the cause of water resource changes within the region from the perspective of climate change and human activities, and summarizes future likely changes in water resources and associated adaptation strategies. The research shows that the climate in the region has experienced warming and wetting with the most significant warming in winter and the highest increase in summer precipitation since 1961. Areas with the most significant warming trends include the Qaidam Basin, the Yili River Valley, and Tacheng. Spatially, the increasing trend in precipitation becomes increasingly significant from the southeast to the northwest, and northern Xinjiang experienced the highest increase. Studies have shown a decrease in headwater of Shiyang River because runoff is mainly based on precipitation which shows a decrease trend. But an increase in western rivers was observed such as Tarim River and Shule River as well as Heihe River due to rapid glacier shrinkage and snowmelt as well as precipitation increase in mountain area. Meanwhile unreasonable human activities resulted in decrease of runoff in the middle and lower reaches of Haihe River, Shiyang River and Kaidu River. Finally, recommendations for future studies are suggested that include characteristics of changes in extreme weather events and their impacts on water resources, projections of future climate and water resource changes, climate change attribution, the selection of adaptation strategies relating to climate change and social economic activities, and use of scientific methods to quantitatively determine water resource allocation.

Spatiotemporal changes in water,land use,and ecosystem services in Central Asia considering climate changes and human activities

Central Asia is located in the hinterland of Eurasia,comprising Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,and Tajikistan;over 93.00%of the total area is dryland.Temperature rise and human activities have severe impacts on the fragile ecosystems.Since the 1970s,nearly half the great lakes in Central Asia have shrunk and rivers are drying rapidly owing to climate changes and human activities.Water shortage and ecological crisis have attracted extensive international attention.In general,ecosystem services in Central Asia are declining,particularly with respect to biodiversity,water,and soil conservation.Furthermore,the annual average temperature and annual precipitation in Central Asia increased by 0.30℃/decade and 6.9 mm/decade in recent decades,respectively.Temperature rise significantly affected glacier retreat in the Tianshan Mountains and Pamir Mountains,which may intensify water shortage in the 21st century.The increase in precipitation cannot counterbalance the aggravation of water shortage caused by the temperature rise and human activities in Central Asia.The population of Central Asia is growing gradually,and its economy is increasing steadily.Moreover,the agricultural land has not been expended in the last two decades.Thus,water and ecological crises,such as the Aral Sea shrinkage in the 21st century,cannot be attributed to agriculture extension any longer.Unbalanced regional development and water interception/transfer have led to the irrational exploitation of water resources in some watersheds,inducing downstream water shortage and ecological degradation.In addition,accelerated industrialization and urbanization have intensified this process.Therefore,all Central Asian countries must urgently reach a consensus and adopt common measures for water and ecological protection.

Modeling and analyzing supply-demand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang from a perspective of ecosystem services

Water shortage is one bottleneck that limits economic and social developments in arid and semi-arid areas.As the impacts of climate change and human disturbance intensify across time,uncertainties in both water resource supplies and demands increase in arid and semi-arid areas.Taking a typical arid region in China,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,as an example,water yield depth(WYD)and water utilization depth(WUD)from 2002 to 2018 were simulated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model and socioeconomic data.The supply-demand relationships of water resources were analyzed using the ecosystem service indices including water supply-demand difference(WSDD)and water supply rate(WSR).The internal factors in changes of WYD and WUD were explored using the controlled variable method.The results show that the supplydemand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang were in a slight deficit,but the deficit was alleviated due to increased precipitation and decreased WUD of irrigation.WYD generally experienced an increasing trend,and significant increase mainly occurred in the oasis areas surrounding both the Junggar Basin and Tarim Basin.WUD had a downward trend with a decline of 20.70%,especially in oasis areas.Water resources in most areas of Xinjiang were fully utilized and the utilization efficiency of water resources increased.The water yield module in the InVEST model was calibrated and validated using gauging station data in Xinjiang,and the result shows that the use of satellite-based water storage data helped to decrease the bias error of the InVEST model by 0.69×10^(8)m^(3).This study analyzed water resource supplies and demands from a perspective of ecosystem services,which expanded the scope of the application of ecosystem services and increased the research perspective of water resource evaluation.The results could provide guidance for water resource management such as spatial allocation and structural optimization of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas.

Potential Renaturalisation of Lakes as An Element Building Up Water Resources： An Example of Mosina Lake, Poland

Water deficits observed in many regions of the world make it necessary to implement measures intended to improve this situation. Poland is one of the countries with the poorest water resources in Europe due to its natural conditions and human impact. As a result of land reclamation carried out over decades, many elements of its hydrographic system have been changed, and some of them, like lakes, have disappeared altogether. In the days of the socio-economic transformation and more frequent extreme events, what seems worth considering is the renaturalisation of non-existing lakes, an idea presented in this paper on a selected example.

Climate change and water security in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains

Water security is under threat worldwide from climate change. A warming climate would accelerate evaporationand cryosphere melting, leading to reduced water availability and unpredictable water supply. However, thewater crisis in the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains(NSTM) faces dual challenges because water demandsforfast-growing urban areas have put heavy pressure on water resources. The mountain-oasis-desert system featuresglacier-fed rivers that sustain intensive water use in the oasis and end in the desert as fragile terminal lakes.The complex balance between water conservation and economic development is subtle. This paper investigateschanges in hydroclimatic variables and water security-related issues on the NSTM. The spatiotemporal variationsin glaciers, climatic variables, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, groundwater, surface water, human water use, andstreamflow were analyzed for the past four decades. The results show that temperature in the NSTM exhibitedan apparent upward trend with a more significant warming rate in the higher altitude regions. Glacier massloss and shrinkage was strong. The average annual streamflow increased from 1980-1989 to 2006–2011 at mosthydrological stations. The monthly dynamics of surface water area showed notable variability at both inter-annual and seasonal scales, revealing the impacts of both natural and anthropogenic drivers on surface wateravailability in the region. The terrestrial water storage anomaly showed a decreasing trend, which might berelated to groundwater pumping for irrigation. Human water use for agriculture and industry grew with theincrease in cultivated land area and gross domestic product (GDP). The increased agricultural water use wasstrongly associated with the expansion of oases. It is unclear whether water availability would remain high underfuture climatic and hydrological uncertainties, posing challenges to water management. In the context of rapidurban growth and climate change, balancing water for humans and nature is vital in achieving the SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDGs) in NSTM. This study provides a baseline understanding of the interplay among water,climate change, and socio-economic development in NSTM. It would also shed light on wise water managementunder environmental changes for other rapidly developing mountain-oasis-desert systems worldwide.

Vulnerability of an inland river basin water resource system under the background of future accelerated glacier melt: A case of Yarkent River Basin in arid Northwest China

Water resources of inland river basins of arid Northwest China will be profoundly affected by future accelerated glacier melt. Based on scenarios of climate warming, accelerated glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, vulnerability of the Yarkent River Basin water resources for 2010-2030 is evaluated quantitatively using the indicator of water deficiency ratio. Results show that the quantity of the basin＇s water resources will continuously increase over the next 20 years, mainly due to the effect of climate warming and accelerated glacier melt. But, in the next 10 years, the basin will have a deficient water status, and the water resource system will be quite vulnerable. This is due to an increased water demand from rapidly increasing socioeco- nomic development and a lack of low water-use efficiency in the near future. After about 2020, water supply will outstrip demand, greatly relieving the basin＇s water deficient due to increased water resources and the advancement of water-saving technology. Contrast to the hypothetical situation of unchanged glacier melt, climate wanning and resulting accelerated glacier melt may play a role in relieving the supply-demand strain to some extent.

Identification and Evolution of Groundwater Chemistry in the Ejin Sub-Basin of the Heihe River, Northwest China

Hydro-chemical characteristics of groundwater and their changes as affected by human activities were studied in the Ejin Sub-Basin of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, to understand the groundwater evolution, to identify the predominant geochemical processes taking place along the horizontal groundwater flow path, and to characterize anthropogenic factors affecting the groundwater environment based on previous data. The concentrations of major ions and total dissolved solids (TDS) in the groundwater showed a great variation, with 62.5% of the samples being brackish (TDS≥1000 mg L-1). The groundwater system showed a gradual hydro-chemical zonation composed of Na+-HCO3-, Na+-Mg2+-SO42-Cl-, and Na+-Cl-. The relationships among the dissolved species allowed identification of the origin of solutes and the processes that generated the observed water compositions. The dissolution of halite, dolomite, and gypsum explained, in part, the presence of Na+, K+, Cl-, SO42-, and Ca2+, but other processes, such as mixing, Na+ exchange for Ca2+ and Mg2+, and calcite precipitation also contributed to the composition of water. Human activity, in particular large-scale water resources development associated with dramatic population growth in the last 50 years, has led to tremendous changes in the groundwater regime, which reflected in surface water runoff change, decline of groundwater table and degeneration of surface water and groundwater quality. Solving these largely anthropogenic problems requires concerted, massive and long-term efforts.

水资源刚性约束制度研究框架与展望

实行水资源刚性约束制度是当前水资源管理制度领域的重大改革措施,也是推动相关国家战略实施、实现人水和谐共生的必然举措。梳理了水资源刚性约束制度的提出背景与历程,分析了水资源刚性约束制度的概念内涵,从指导思想、理论基础、技术支撑、战略目标、研究内容和关键问题等6个方面构建了水资源刚性约束制度研究框架,从理论研究、技术研究、实践研究等3个方面对未来研究进行了展望,以期为水资源刚性约束制度相关研究提供理论和实践参考。

基于人水和谐视角的国家水网优化布局构想与展望

国家水网建设有助于缓解当前日益复杂的人水矛盾,基于人水和谐论开展国家水网优化布局研究,能够为国家水网建设提供新的思路。本文从人水和谐的视角出发,通过梳理国家水网提出过程,分析现阶段国家水网建设中亟待解决的问题,在此基础上辨析人水和谐论对国家水网优化布局的指导作用;进一步以人水和谐理念为引领,从指导理论、基本原则、布局方法、关键内容与研究途径等方面提出了国家水网优化布局的构建框架;从促进人与自然和谐共生、实现综合效益最优发挥、支撑国家安全总体保障、助力先进文化繁荣发展、建设现代水网智慧服务5个方面描绘了国家水网优化布局的蓝图;从理论、方法、技术、支撑体系4个方面对国家水网优化布局未来研究进行展望。

新时代李冰文化的精神内涵分析及其传承价值探讨

李冰于公元前256年主持修建都江堰,是中国古代科学治水的典型象征。李冰文化是中华优秀传统文化的一部分。目前关于李冰文化精神内涵的表述众说纷纭。研究认为李冰文化的精神内涵是以李冰为代表的都江堰历代治水先贤以及广大人民群众在都江堰的建设管理发展过程中、治水实践中所形成和体现的执政理念、科学思想、优秀品德及与之相关的民族情感,也是都江堰巨大作用、历史地位、独特价值的反映。本着客观、便于接受和推广的原则,提出李冰文化的精神内涵具体表述为“治水兴邦,师法自然,求实创新,人水和谐”。同时,结合国家政策以及新时代经济、文化发展需要,对李冰文化的传承发展提出建议。

水资源节约集约利用理论体系与应用实践

水资源节约集约利用是促进全社会节约用水、保障国家水安全、促进生态文明建设、助力高质量发展的重要举措。通过梳理水资源节约集约利用的提出背景及历程,深入剖析水资源节约集约利用的概念内涵,提出了水资源节约集约利用理论体系框架,包括基础理论、符合原则与研究内容。重点分析了水资源节约集约利用理论在节水型社会建设、水利高质量发展、人与自然和谐共生以及水资源刚性约束制度建设中的应用实践,旨在为我国现代水资源利用提供理论支撑和实践指导。

塔里木河流域土地利用及人类活动强度的时空演化特征研究

[研究目的]人类活动引起的土地利用/覆被变化是全球环境变化的重要组成部分,旱区土地利用对区域水文和生态的影响尤为显著,探究土地利用变化及其对人类活动的响应对西北干旱内陆生态与资源环境可持续发展具有重要意义。[研究方法]基于1980-2018年间共5期遥感影像,结合土地利用动态度、土地利用转移矩阵和人类活动强度指数分析塔里木河流域各水资源分区土地利用变化特征。[研究结果]近40年中,塔里木河流域耕地、建设用地和林地面积分别增加1.58×10^(4)km^(2)、1.2×10^(3) km^(2)和347 km^(2),而草地、未利用地和水域面积分别减少1.33×10^(4)km^(2)、0.32×10^(4)km^(2)和815 km^(2)。各水资源分区中塔里木河干流土地利用类型变化最大,其次为渭干河、阿克苏河和喀什噶尔河流域。自2000年以来,塔里木河流域建设用地当量面积和人类活动强度增加相对较快,特别是2000-2010年间呈显著增长趋势。[结论]塔里木河流域各水资源分区的人类活动强度呈显著的空间差异性。社会经济发展和政策的导向性作用是塔里木河流域土地利用变化和人类活动强度的主要影响因素。

引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源调配系统设计与开发

为强化引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源统一调配,基于Spring Boot和Vue前后端分离开发的模式,利用天地图API、WebGL、Echarts等技术设计研发引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源调配系统。从设计思路、功能界面、关键技术3个角度论述系统设计思路和实现过程,从而实现地理信息服务、供需水预测、水资源优化配置、水资源优化调度等功能,实现水量分配可视化、运行调度智能化和跨流域调水管控一体化。系统测试结果表明:引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源调配系统的建立提高了受水区水资源精细化管理的水平,解决了引江济淮工程(河南段)跨流域调水的配置难题,为受水区水资源高效利用提供有效的技术支撑。

基于补偿费用最小的鲁棒性水利项目群调度模型

对人力资源在水利项目群中的调度分配问题进行研究,以提高项目群的鲁棒性,保证项目群的补偿费用最小。从业主角度出发,在构建净现值工期延误补偿费用这一鲁棒性指标的基础上构建鲁棒性水利项目群调度模型。该模型对工期固定的水利项目群以净现值工期延误补偿费用最小为目标对人力资源进行分配,运用设计的MSDCC算法进行求解;针对项目群某一个合同项目发生拖期的情况,在业主采取措施保证总工期不变再进行优化分配。研究结果表明:构建的模型能够获得鲁棒性高的调度方案,可实现补偿费用最小的目标,且能有效地控制调整后的补偿费用与拖期风险。

中国式现代化道路蕴含的儒家生态文明思想探析

中国式现代化道路的选择不是偶然的,而是由中国独特的历史文化传统决定的。党的二十大报告中明确提出“中国式现代化是人与自然和谐共生的现代化”,揭示了中国式现代化的鲜明特征,也折射出中国式现代化道路中蕴含着儒家“天人合一”等生态文明思想。在新时代背景下,基于中国式现代化生态文明维度,深入挖掘儒家生态文明思想的核心要义,整体考察中国式现代化汲取儒家生态文明思想的理路表征,有利于进一步彰显中国式现代化的中国特色,增强文化自信与文化自觉,为新时代中国生态文明建设提供智慧支持。

价值导向与制度重建:中国式现代化之自然资源法治论析

在新时代法治中国与美丽中国建设新征程的宏阔背景下,自然资源法治是中国社会主义法治的核心要素之一,为中国式现代化的实现提供基础与保障。因此,为构建中国式现代化之自然资源法治,积极响应党的二十大精神,应从自然资源法治的价值导向、规范体系、实施体系三个维度着手。全面坚持党的领导,坚持保护优先和系统保护的法治理念,实行自上而下的动力机制,以整体系统协调的法治方法论为路径指引,优化自然资源法律规范的整体结构、加强自然资源法律规范的制度衔接,以再体系化方式实现自然资源法治的制度重建,并在执法和司法中加强协作共治的实践走向,真正实现中国式现代化之自然资源法治建设新格局。

引黄灌区水资源调配模型及和谐评估

基于引黄灌区普遍特征及存在的水资源问题,构建考虑水资源、经济社会和生态环境多维目标的水资源优化调配模型,建立引黄灌区水资源和谐评估指标体系,并将模型和评估体系应用到赵口引黄灌区二期工程。基于模型解集中选取的4种代表性优化调配方案进行水资源、经济社会、生态环境的效益分析,选定P_(4)方案为赵口二期水资源多目标优化调度方案,并基于该方案开展和谐评估和多方案调控研究。结果表明:模型优化后灌区和谐度明显提高,通过对和谐度较低的地下水开采率、农业用水比例、城镇化率、人均粮食产量、绿化覆盖率等指标调控后,和谐度可进一步提高到0.790。

“以水定产”驱动的黄河流域可持续水管理策略研究

水资源短缺是长期以来制约黄河流域经济发展的关键因素,实施“以水定产”是黄河流域可持续水管理的核心策略,对推动流域内的经济社会与环境协同发展、实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略至关重要。本文剖析了“以水定产”的基本概念及其内涵的演变过程,辨析了“以水定产”“水管理”两者的逻辑关系,基于复合生态系统理论提出了“以水定产”促进可持续水管理的概念框架及实施路径;从黄河流域水治理战略演变、流域水管理制度变迁两个层面梳理了黄河流域水管理体系的发展历程及现状;进而分析了黄河流域实施“以水定产”在管理体制统筹协同、人水和谐效益优化、基础数据支撑能力等方面存在的主要挑战。研究提出了“以水定产”驱动的黄河流域可持续水管理策略建议:完善流域水管理部门和行政单元协调机制,协同推进“四水四定”;激励多元主体参与流域治理,创新流域治理网络体系构建;推动流域内管理部门共建共享数据资源,实现流域精细化、可持续水管理。

基于EWM-AHP-DEMATEL模糊评价模型的区域水资源承载力研究

【目的】针对目前区域水资源承载力评价中存在的评价指标体系不完善、指标权重不够客观的问题,以鄂尔多斯市为例,建立新的评价模型,为该地区合理优化配置水资源提供理论依据与参考。【方法】从区域水资源禀赋、开发利用情况、人类活动的影响、生态环境4个方面选取16个指标,构建水资源-社会-经济-生态耦合的综合评价体系。采用AHP-DEMATEL模型确定主观赋权;采用EWM法确定客观赋权;采用M(·,⊕)算子进行模糊运算,确定评价结果。【结果】结果显示:鄂尔多斯市2011—2021年水资源承载力大部分为Ⅲ级,属于临界超载水平,其中2012年、2016年、2021年水资源承载力等级上升至Ⅱ级,属于弱可承载水平。【结论】影响鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力的主要因素是当地水资源量、经济用水效率、居民节水意识、生态用水补给。2011—2021年鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力整体上呈现出波动上升趋势;EWM-AHP-DEMATEL模型确定的权重更加全面客观。