A COMBINED VERIFICATION METHOD FOR PREDICTABILITY OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS OVER EAST ASIA BASED ON ENSEMBLE FORECAST

Persistent Heavy Rainfall(PHR)is the most influential extreme weather event in Asia in summer,and thus it has attracted intensive interests of many scientists.In this study,operational global ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration(CMA)are used,and a new verification method applied to evaluate the predictability of PHR is investigated.A metrics called Index of Composite Predictability(ICP)established on basic verification indicators,i.e.,Equitable Threat Score(ETS)of 24 h accumulated precipitation and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of Height at 500 h Pa,are selected in this study to distinguish"good"and"poor"prediction from all ensemble members.With the use of the metrics of ICP,the predictability of two typical PHR events in June 2010 and June 2011 is estimated.The results show that the"good member"and"poor member"can be identified by ICP and there is an obvious discrepancy in their ability to predict the key weather system that affects PHR."Good member"shows a higher predictability both in synoptic scale and mesoscale weather system in their location,duration and the movement.The growth errors for"poor"members is mainly due to errors of initial conditions in northern polar region.The growth of perturbation errors and the reason for better or worse performance of ensemble member also have great value for future model improvement and further research.

Rainfall Variability and Trends in West Africa

Rainfall variability associated with climate change has enormous impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and people in West Africa but few studies have been devoted to it. Monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2013, provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Center dataset, were analyzed using segmentation and empirical modal decomposition (EMD) methods to increase our knowledge on past and recent spatio-temporal rainfall trends and their impacts on the West African region. The results obtained showed that the peak of rainfall during the short rainy season is observed in September in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Liberia. The temporal variability of this rainfall is marked by several breakpoints whose durations range from 2 to 70 years. The periods of change in the rainfall regime, characterized by the appearance of breakpoints, vary from one country to another and are of unequal duration. The main breakpoint appears after 1960. Periods of relative or normal increase or decrease in precipitation are observed before and after 1960. The long-term variability of this rainfall is characterized by a decrease in the amount of rainfall over all West African countries. The results of this study can be used as a tool to help raise awareness among populations for sustainable management of water resources in response to climate change and its adverse effects.

Analysis of an Extensive Heavy Rainfall Weather Process during 23-24 April, 2021 in China

An extensive rainfall occurred in central and eastern China during 23-24 April, 2021. This research mainly uses the reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR every 6 hours to analyze this heavy rainfall weather process. The results show that the main reason for this precipitation process is the shear formed between the cold air and the warm and humid air flow in the southwest. The low temperature on the ground allows the warm and humid air flow to lift up to form precipitation. The shear system is strengthened to a low vortex, which greatly strengthens the vertical ascent movement. Good water vapor and dynamic conditions form a large range of heavy rainfall.

Average Rainfall Estimation: Methods Performance Comparison in the Brazilian Semi-Arid

Considering the rainfall’s importance in hydrological modeling, the objective of this study was the performance comparison, in convergence terms, of techniques often used to estimate the average rainfall over an area: Thiessen Polygon (TP) Method;Reciprocal Distance Squared (RDS) Method;Kriging Method (KM) and Multiquadric Equations (ME) Method. The comparison was done indirectly, using GORE and BALANCE index to assess the convergence results from each method by increasing the rain gauges density in a region, through six scenarios. The Coremas/Mae D’água Watershed employed as study area, with an area of 8385 km2, is situated on Brazilian semi-arid. The results showed the TP, as RDS and ME techniques to be employed successfully to obtain the average rainfall over an area, highlighting the MEM. On the other hand, KM, using two variograms models, had an unstable behavior, pointing the prior study of data and variogram’s choice as a need to practical applying.

Simulation Monitoring for Rainfall Infiltration in Soil Based on High Density Electrical Method

Rainfall infiltration is a porous medium flow problem with variable saturation. Based on the theoretical analysis of the flow field, electrical conductivity of rocks, the electrical field, the paper simulates the coupling relationship between the water saturation in soil and the apparent resistivity distribution. It combines the Richards equation, the Archie formula and the Laplace equation. The experiment simulates the potential field data by the Wenner setting in electrical exploration on a two-layer geologic model with continuous rainfall during 5 days, which shows that the effective saturation in soil is increasing with the rainfall time, while the apparent resistivity is decreasing. This can provide a theoretical basis for the analyzing the rainfall infiltration and porosity of the soil by using high-density electrical method in the future.

AN OPERATIONAL STATISTICAL SCHEME FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED RAINFALL FORECAST

A non-parametric method is used in this study to analyze and predict short-term rainfall due to tropical cyclones(TCs) in a coastal meteorological station. All 427 TCs during 1953-2011 which made landfall along the Southeast China coast with a distance less than 700 km to a certain meteorological station- Shenzhen are analyzed and grouped according to their landfalling direction, distance and intensity. The corresponding daily rainfall records at Shenzhen Meteorological Station(SMS) during TCs landfalling period(a couple of days before and after TC landfall) are collected. The maximum daily rainfall(R-24) and maximum 3-day accumulative rainfall(R-72) records at SMS for each TC category are analyzed by a non-parametric statistical method, percentile estimation. The results are plotted by statistical boxplots, expressing in probability of precipitation. The performance of the statistical boxplots is evaluated to forecast the short-term rainfall at SMS during the TC seasons in 2012 and 2013. Results show that the boxplot scheme can be used as a valuable reference to predict the short-term rainfall at SMS due to TCs landfalling along the Southeast China coast.

Study of Helicity in Typhoon Rainfall Regions——A Case Study of Typhoon "Muifa"

Using the center of figure method and center of mass method, precipitation and heavy precipitation processes caused by No. 9 typhoon ＂ Muifa＂ in 2011 were analyzed based on helicity, and the mechanism of typhoon rainfall was interpreted from the relation between helicity and ener- gy. The results showed that horizontal helicity checked the diffusion of nonlinear energy and maintained the development of the system. Precipitati- on mainly appeared on the southeast of vertical helicity, while heavy precipitation mainly occurred on its southwest. Compared with the center of fig- ure method, the center of mass method had good results, especially for heavy precipitation. Vertical helicity at 700 hPa reflected system deviation in rainfall regions well and had the best correction effect on rainfall intensity and regions

Dynamic assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard

The assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards is a significant issue in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China due to the rapid development of land in the past two decades. In this study, a probabilistic analysis method that combines TRIGRS and the point-estimate method for evaluating the hazards of shallow landslides have been proposed under the condition of rainfall over a large area. TRIGRS provides the transient infiltration model to analyze the pore water pressure during a rainfall. The point-estimate method is used to analyze the uncertainty of the soil parameters, which is performed in the geographic information system(GIS). In this paper, we use this method to evaluate the hazards of shallow landslides in Badong County,Three Gorges Reservoir, under two different types of rainfall intensity, and the results are compared with the field investigation. The results showed that the distribution of the hazard map is consistent with the observed landslides. To some extent, the distributionof the hazard map reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of the shallow landslide caused by rainfall.

Rainfall-runoff simulation and flood forecasting for Huaihe Basin

The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin＇anjiang rainfall-runoff model. The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins, including the surface of Hongze Lake. The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way. With a one-day time step, the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing, and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting. Representative historical data were collected for the model calibration. The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually, so the parameters of the Xin＇anjiang model were different for different sub-basins. This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.

Rainfall Distribution Functions for Irrigation Scheduling: Calculation Procedures Following Site of Olive (<i>Olea europaea</i>L.) Cultivation and Growing Periods

In Tunisia (36.5oN, 10.2oE, Alt.10 m), rainfall is the major factor govering olive production. Annual and seasonal falls are variable following years and regions, making yields of olive trees fluctuating consistently. Irrigation was applied since the 70th in the intensive olive orchards to improve and stabilize olive production. This study aimed to determine the crop water needs of olive orchards and the rainfall frequencies at which they are covered following age and site of olive production. For this purpose, the rainfall distribution functions were established for different cities of Tunisia (Tunis, Bizerte, Béja, Nabeul, Sidi Bouzid, Gabes and Sousse). For all sites and growing periods, the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was computed by using several methods. Their performance against the PM-ET0 (Penman-Monteith) estimates was evaluated graphically and statistically for a better adaptation them to the existing environmental conditions, particularly when data are missing to compute ET0-PM. Results show that ET0 estimates strongly correlate with ET0-PM with r values of up to 0.88. Particularly, the methods of Turc and Ivanov appropriately predict the ET0-PM in all climatic regions of Tunisia, constituing an appropriate alternative for determining ET0 when data are missing to compute ET0-PM. However, although the Turc method performs well with all climatic zones of Tunisia, the Ivanov method appears to be more appropriate to the northern areas (Béja and Bizerte), though a poorer agreement was found when using the Eagleman method. Estimates of ET0 by using the Hargreave-Samani (HS) formula for the east-southern area (Gabes, arid climate) show satisfactory agreement with ET0-PM estimates. It appears also that at a given site, the most appropriate method for ET0 estimation at annual scale may be different from that giving the best value of ET0 when considering the growing stages of the olive tree, for example, the method of Turc, although it was appropriate when estimating the annual ET0 value for Sousse, it wasn’t adequate at seasonal scale. In opposite, although the method of BC is suitable for stages 1, 2, 4 and 5 at Sousse, the appropriate method for the overall cycle is that of Turc. This indicates that there is no weather-based evapotranspiration equation that can be expected to predict evapotranspiration perfectly under every climatic situation due to simplification in formulation and errors in data measurement. However, we can say that when data are missing, ET0 can be estimated with a specific formula;that of Turc can be appropriately used for Tunis, Sidi Bouzid, Sousse and Béja at annual scale despite of their appartenance to different climatic regions, while the method of Ivanov is quite valuable for Bizerte and Nabeul. Results show also that values of P-ETc recorded during the irrigation period are negative even for young plantations, with lowest and highest deficits observed at Béja and Gabes cities, respectively. The driest period is that of July-August for all sites with F values exceeding 0.9 in most cases. Only 10% of water needs are supplied by rainfall during this period of fruit development. Therefore, irrigation is needed all time for adult trees even at the rainiest locations. For young plantations, irrigation becomes necessary beginning from the second period of tree development, i.e. April-June for Bizerte, Béja, Nabeul and Tunis and since the early spring period for both young and old plants for Gabes and Sidi-Bouzid. It appears from this analyze based on the seasonal rainfall frequencies and water needs computed with the PM-method, that there is a need for irrigating olive plantations aging more than 5 years in most case studies and especially when olive is cultivated in the western areas of Tunisia. Results indicate also that the use of no adequate method to estimate ET0 allowed overestimating or underestimating of irrigation water needs. So it is desirable to have for Tunisia a method that estimates ET consistently well and future research is needed to reconcile which should be the standard method of calculating the change in the crop coefficient over time. However, despite a quite good performance of the PM-equation in most applications, particularly when it is used for irrigation scheduling purposes, some problems may appear because of lack of local information on Kc-values and determination of the effective rainfall. Additional research is needed on developing crop coefficients that use the Penman-Monteith equation when calculating ET. In conclusion we can say that on the basis of the results produced, we can decide for each region and growing period if complementary irrigation is needed or not. Indicative amounts are given for each case study.

Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL （BTOPMC）, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model＇s applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin＇anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution （SCE-UA） method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model＇s applicability.

Earth Pressure of Retaining Structure Induced by Subgrade under Rainfall

This article selects the retaining wall as the research object, introducing the rainfall infiltration model, considering the infiltration of rainwater into the groundwater recharge, analysizing the variation of earth pressure in the subgrade retaining wall. On this occasion, the back of retaining wall produces stable seepage water and compares with the non drainage water body. The results show that, with the infiltration of rainwater into the groundwater recharge, the greater the active earth pressure under the condition of rainfall appears, more quickly the active earth pressure of the retaining wall with the drainage body increases. The matrix suction of unsaturated soils, which is infiltrated into soil of subgrade, has a positive effect on the shear strength of the earth pressure.

降雨作用下抗滑桩与三维土工网垫植草护坡坡体的稳定分析

针对抗滑桩与三维土工网垫植草护坡在降雨作用下的稳定性问题,采用有限元强度折减法,利用ABAQUS建立抗滑桩与三维土工网垫植草护坡坡体的三维有限元模型,以坡底水平位移突变情况作为边坡失稳的判断标准,分别比较了不同工况下护坡安全系数随降雨时长的变化规律,以及降雨作用下抗滑桩桩位、桩长对抗滑桩与三维土工网垫植草护坡坡体的稳定性影响,并与未考虑降雨时的影响规律进行对比。结果表明:降雨时长对三维土工网垫植草工况的边坡稳定性影响较为明显;抗滑桩桩长对边坡稳定性影响较大,桩长宜取8 m;无降雨作用下将桩位置于坡中时边坡整体获得最大安全系数,降雨作用下将抗滑桩置于相对位置(L 0.4=4.8 m)时能够起到更好的抗滑效果;抗滑桩与三维土工网垫植草在降雨作用时加固护坡的效果比无降雨时更好,且优于原边坡。

山洪灾害雨量预警指标分析方法评述与展望

山洪灾害预警指标是山洪灾害预报预警的核心,我国现阶段主要采用经验法和水位流量反推法确定雨量预警指标,并逐步推广应用复合预警指标法和动态临界雨量法。在系统阐述国内外常用雨量预警指标分析方法及其特点基础上,针对山洪灾害预警指标分析中需考虑的降雨时空分布变化、高含砂水流、泥石流及其他不确定因素影响问题,提出今后雨量预警指标研究方向。

降雨条件下层状土坡三维边坡稳定性分析

降雨是诱发滑坡的重要因素之一,在降雨型滑坡的研究中,关于土壤水分剖面形状动态变化对三维边坡稳定性的影响有待进一步考虑。鉴于此,在前人工作的基础上,本文采用含修正形状系数的形状曲线描述土壤水分剖面的变化,结合非饱和土的水力特性,计算等效渗透系数,推导出改进入渗模型并拓展至双层土体入渗。利用GRASS GIS建立三维边坡模型,选取椭球面作为三维滑动面,通过蒙特卡洛法模拟椭球面参数,确定试算滑动面,采用Hovland三维极限平衡法计算考虑雨水入渗影响的三维边坡安全系数。根据湿润锋面、土层间界面和潜在滑动面三者的相对位置关系,将栅格单元柱分为5种情况考虑。通过算例分析验证所提出的降雨条件下三维边坡稳定性分析方法的可行性,结果表明:蒙特卡洛模拟试算样本数的最佳取值可定为2500次;最小三维边坡安全系数随着降雨历时的增加而减小,减小幅度为0.055~0.126。

安徽省2021年梅雨期降水预报检验分析

对安徽省2021年梅雨期(6月10日—7月10日)6个客观模式和1个主观订正预报产品进行了检验分析,其中包含了3个区域模式数值预报(中国气象局中尺度天气数值预报系统“CMA-MESO”、中国气象局上海数值预报模式系统“CMA-SH9”、安徽WRF,3个全球模式数值预报(中国气象局全球同化预报系统“CMA-GFS”、欧洲中期天气预报中心确定性预报模式“ECMWF”、美国国家环境预报中心全球预报系统“NCEP-GFS”)和安徽智能网格主观订正预报的降水产品,结果表明:传统检验中安徽智能网格和区域模式对晴雨准确率的预报效果优于全球模式,又以CMA-MESO最优;在暴雨及以上量级的强降水预报中,传统检验表明安徽智能网格预报的得分最高(23.83),ECMWF模式则是客观模式预报中效果最好的(20.12),CMA-SH9次之(19.34);通过对除安徽智能网格以外的各个客观数值模式进行的MODE空间检验可知,不同数值模式间暴雨预报误差原因不尽相同,ECMWF与各区域数值模式主要是由雨区位置的预报偏差,尤其是纬度偏差导致的,NCEP-GFS全球模式对降水强度和雨区面积的预报偏弱偏小比较明显,CMA-GFS在强降水方面的预报可参考性较差;各个主客观预报暴雨及以上量级预报,整体表现出较明显的日变化特征,在午夜前后、上午时段TS评分较高,而午后到傍晚评分较低,这个现象或许是梅雨期的午后降水多以地表太阳加热引起的短历时热对流降水为主造成的。

基于地区线性矩法的四川省24 h极值降雨频率分析

为探究四川省24 h极值降雨在不同重现期不同频率下的时空分布特征,采用地区线性矩法划分四川省水文气象一致区,确定最优拟合线型,并验证地区线性矩法在站点稀疏地区的适用性,随后估计四川省24 h不同重现期降雨频率值,分析其时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)四川省可划分为40个水文气象一致区,经线型拟合优度检验,主要线型为GLO、GEV和GNO,其中川西高原地区的最优线型大多为GLO,盆地区域的最优线型大多为GEV。(2)地区线性矩法在站点相对稀疏的川西高原地区具有良好的适用性。(3)四川省内不同地区24 h极值降雨空间分布十分不均,同一重现期下不同地区降雨频率估计值的最大值可达最小值的10倍。

2020年我国梅雨期暴雨特征及ECMWF暴雨落区订正分析

利用常规地面和高空资料对2020年我国梅雨期暴雨特征进行初步分析,按照925hPa锋区性质对暴雨过程进行分型,最后通过两个典型暴雨个例讨论ECMWF数值预报的订正思路.结果表明:①在27次梅雨期区域性暴雨中,有26次暴雨与925hPa切变线位置吻合,只有18次与850hPa切变线位置吻合.②按照925hPa锋区位置和强弱,可将梅雨期暴雨分为无锋区暴雨、强锋区暴雨、弱锋区暴雨和混合型暴雨;按照锋区移动方向可将强锋区暴雨分为南压型、静止型和北抬型暴雨;按照暴雨落区与锋区位置关系可将弱锋区暴雨分为弱强迫暴雨和冷区暴雨.③EC对无锋区型暴雨预报较差,对强锋区暴雨预报有偏北趋势(20次中有14次偏北,2次正确,4次偏南),对弱锋区暴雨预报有偏南趋势(11次中有8次偏南,1次正确,2次偏北).④从典型暴雨个例上也能看到,925hPa切变线和温度锋区位置与暴雨落区相吻合;中尺度数值模式有时候能较好地弥补EC全球数值模式对锋区降水的不足.

HEC-HMS水文模型不同降雨损失方法对比研究

为对比分析HEC-HMS模型三种降雨损失方法在沁河流域的适用性。借助Morris筛选法识别降雨损失方法的关键参数,选用流域内5场雨洪资料进行参数率定和模拟精度分析。结果表明:(1)SCS CN值曲线法、Green-Ampt法、Initial and Uniform法主要敏感性参数分别为CN值、土壤饱和导水率、恒定损失率。(2)选取洪峰流量、洪水总量、峰现时刻误差以及Nash系数对模型模拟精度进行评价,SCS CN值曲线法和Initial and Uniform法模拟结果达到乙等精度,Green-Ampt法模拟结果达到丙等精度。研究成果可为半湿润地区中小流域降雨损失方法的选择提供参考。

光流法雷达外推产品在突发强降水预报中的应用

地形条件复杂的山丘区中小河流洪水突发性强、汇流时间短,高准确率和长时效性降水短时临近预报产品对提高突发洪水预报精度尤为关键。以2021年9月河南省鸭河口水库出现的千年一遇特大洪水为例,利用国家气象信息中心提供的三源融合格点实况降水资料,检验基于改进光流法的雷达外推降水预报产品在本次洪水过程中0~1 h和0~3 h降水预报的TS评分和预报偏差。结果表明:(1)改进光流法在0~1 h的逐小时降水预报上较为精准,累计雨量在50 mm以下时,TS评分在0.45~0.85之间;雨量在50~70 mm之间时,TS评分在0.35~0.70之间;雨量在70 mm以上时,TS评分在0.25~0.35之间。50 mm以上雨量有较高TS评分表现出改进光流法在极端强降水预报中的优势性。(2)改进光流法在0~3 h的降水预报上,累计雨量在50 mm以下时,TS评分在0.55~0.85之间;在50 mm以上时,TS评分在0.35~0.75之间。该降水预报产品不仅对极端性降水预报效果较好,且预报时效长达3 h,可为防洪调度提供更长的决策时间。(3)改进光流法在0~3 h的降水预报产品与融合实况格点降水相比,雨量在20 mm以下的预报结果比较接近,平均绝对误差在10 mm以内;雨量在20 mm以上时,随雨量增大,平均误差、平均绝对误差、均方根误差均逐渐增大。(4)改进光流法在0~3 h的降水预报产品对影响范围小、降水强度大、维持时间长、累计雨量大的极端强降水有较好的预报表现。研究成果可为洪水预报模型提供一种较为可靠的降水输入预报。