Assessment on eco-environmental quality of the Yellow River Basin by considering desertification index

Desertification has had a significant impact on the ecological environment of the Yellow River Basin(YRB)in China.However,previous studies on the evaluation of the ecological environment quality(EEQ)in the YRB have paid limited attention to the indicator of desertification.It is of great significance to incorporate the desertification index into the spatiotemporal assessment of the EEQ in the YRB in order to protect the ecological environment in the region.In this study,based on multi-source remote sensing data from 91 cities in the YRB,this article proposes a desertification remote sensing ecological index(DRSEI)model,which builds upon the traditional Remote Sensing Ecological Index(RSEI)model,to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in the EEQ in the YRB from 2001 to 2021.Furthermore,using the geographic detector(GD),and geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model,the study assesses the impact of human and natural factors on the EEQ in the YRB.The research findings indicate that:(1)Compared to the traditional RSEI,the improved DRSEI shows a decreasing trend in the evaluation results of the EEQ.Among the 24 cities,the change in DRSEI exceeds 0.05 compared to RSEI,accounting for 26.37%of the YRB.The remaining 67 cities have changes within a range of less than 0.05,accounting for 73.63%of the YRB.(2)The results of the GD for individual and interactive effects reveal that rainfall and elevation have significant individual and interactive effects on the EEQ.Furthermore,after the interaction with natural factors,the explanatory power of human factors gradually increases over time.The spatial heterogeneity results of GTWR demonstrate that rainfall has a strong direct positive impact on the EEQ,accounting for 98.90%of the influence,while temperature exhibits a more pronounced direct inhibitory effect,accounting for 76.92%of the influence.Human activities have a strong negative impact on the EEQ and a weak positive impact.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Embedded Water Consumption from the Perspective of Virtual Water Surplus and Deficit in the Yellow River Basin,China

Virtual water trade(VWT)provides a new perspective for alleviating water crisis and has thus attracted widespread attention.However,the heterogeneity of virtual water trade inside and outside the river basin and its influencing factors remains further study.In this study,for better investigating the pattern and heterogeneity of virtual water trade inside and outside provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin in 2015 using the input-output model(MRIO),we proposed two new concepts,i.e.,virtual water surplus and virtual water deficit,and then used the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model to identify the inherent mechanism of the imbalance of virtual water trade between provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin and the other four regions in China.The results show that:1)in provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin,the less developed the economy was,the larger the contribution of the agricultural sector in virtual water trade,while the smaller the contribution of the industrial sector.2)Due to the large output of agricultural products,the upstream and midstream provincial regions of the Yellow River Basin had a virtual water surplus,with a net outflow of virtual water of 2.7×10^(8) m^(3) and 0.9×10^(8) m^(3),respectively.3)provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin were in a virtual water deficit with the rest of China,and the decisive factor was the active degree of trade with the outside.This study would be beneficial to illuminate the trade-related water use issues in provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin,which has farreaching practical signific-ance for alleviating water scarcity.

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin,China

The Yellow River Basin of China is a key region that contains myriad interactions between human activities and natural environment.Industrialization and urbanization promote social-economic development,but they also have generated a series of environmental and ecological issues in this basin.Previous researches have evaluated urban resilience at the national,regional,urban agglomeration,city,and prefecture levels,but not at the watershed level.To address this research gap and elevate the Yellow River Basin’s urban resilience level,we constructed an urban resilience evaluation index system from five dimensions:industrial resilience,social resilience,environmental resilience,technological resilience,and organizational resilience.The entropy weight method was used to comprehensively evaluate urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin.The exploratory spatial data analysis method was employed to study the spatiotemporal differences in urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin in 2010,2015,and 2020.Furthermore,the grey correlation analysis method was utilized to explore the influencing factors of these differences.The results of this study are as follows:(1)the overall level of urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin was relatively low but showed an increasing trend during 2010–2015,and significant spatial distribution differences were observed,with a higher resilience level in the eastern region and a low-medium resilience level in the western region;(2)the differences in urban resilience were noticeable,with industrial resilience and social resilience being relatively highly developed,whereas organizational resilience and environmental resilience were relatively weak;and(3)the correlation ranking of resilience influencing factors was as follows:science and technology level>administrative power>openness>market forces.This research can provide a basis for improving the resilience level of cities in the Yellow River Basin and contribute to the high-quality development of the region.

Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yellow River Basin Under Global Warming

The increasing temperature in the Yellow River Basin has led to a rapid rise in the melting level height,at a rate of 5.98 m yr^(-1)during the cold season,which further contributes to the transition from snowfall to rainfall patterns.Between 1979 and 2020,there has been a decrease in snowfall in the Yellow River Basin at a rate of-3.03 mm dec^(-1),while rainfall has been increasing at a rate of 1.00 mm dec^(-1).Consequently,the snowfall-to-rainfall ratio(SRR)has decreased.Snowfall directly replenishes terrestrial water storage(TWS)in solid form until it melts,while rainfall is rapidly lost through runoff and evaporation,in addition to infiltrating underground or remaining on the surface.Therefore,the decreasing SRR accelerates the depletion of water resources.According to the surface water balance equation,the reduction in precipitation and runoff,along with an increase in evaporation,results in a decrease in TWS during the cold season within the Yellow River Basin.In addition to climate change,human activities,considering the region's dense population and extensive agricultural land,also accelerate the decline of TWS.Notably,irrigation accounts for the largest proportion of water withdrawals in the Yellow River Basin(71.8%)and primarily occurs during the warm season(especially from June to August).The impact of human activities and climate change on the water cycle requires further in-depth research.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

Spatio-temporal evolution of the coordinated development of high-tech industry agglomeration and resource-environmental carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin

Under the background of new infrastructure,the Yellow River Basin’s superior growth cannot be separated originating with the synergistic effect of scientific and technological inventiveness and ecological civilization construction.In light of the coupling coordination analysis of the coordination effect of provincial high-tech industry agglomeration and resource carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2021,The evolution of the geographical and temporal pattern of development was investigated using the Moran index and kernel density estimation.The results show that the agglomeration of high-tech industries in the Yellow River Basin presents a development trend of seek improvement in stability,and there is a good coupling and coordination throughout the progression of scientific and technological innovation and the loading capacity of the resource,from the viewpoint of a time series.From the perspective of spatial pattern distribution,the whole basin aims at the lower reaches,accelerates the optimization of digital industry and promotes Yellow River Basin development of superior quality through innovation support and increase of input,and based on policy guidance.

Coordinated Development of Human Settlement and Economy in County-level Cities in the Yellow River Basin

[Objective] To provide quantification means for comprehensively analyzing the coordinated development of urban human settlement and economy by constructing an index system of economy and human settlement. [Method] By constructing an evaluation index system of economy and human settlement, and using the coordinate measurement model of them, 22 county-level cities in the Yellow River Basin were analyzed. [Result] In the Yellow River Basin, the construction level of economy and human settlement in those county-level cities is low with distinct spatial differences and deteriorating polarization; there is a great spatial corresponding between coordinated development degree and economic level, the higher the economic development level, the higher coordinated development degree in county-level cities; county-level cities around the boundaries of provinces have difficulties in development. [Conclusion] Evaluation standards and models are clear in significance, convenient in application, which can successfully evaluate the coordination of human settlement development in the study region.

Comparisons of Simulations of Soil Moisture Variations in the Yellow River Basin Driven by Various Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets

Based on station observations, The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis （ERA40）, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis and Princeton University＇s global meteorological forcing data set （Princeton）, four atmospheric forcing fields were constructed for use in driving the Community Land Model version 3.5 （CLM3.5）. Simulated soil moisture content throughout the period 1951-2000 in the Yellow River basin was validated via comparison with corresponding observations in the upper, middle, and lower reaches. The results show that CLM3.5 is capable of reproducing not only the characteristics of intra-annual and annual variations of soil moisture, but also long-term variation trends, with different statistical significance in the correlations between the observations and simulations from different forcing fields in various reaches. The simulations modeled with station-based atmospheric forcing fields are the most consistent with observed soil moisture, and the simulations based on the Princeton data set are the second best, on average. The simulations from ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR are close to each other in quality, but comparatively worse to the other sources of forcing information that were evaluated. Regionally, simulations are most consistent with observations in the lower reaches and less so in the upper reaches, with the middle reaches in between. In addition, the soil moisture simulated by CLM3.5 is systematically greater than the observations in the Yellow River basin. Comparisons between the simulations by CLM3.5 and CLM3.0 indicate that simulation errors are primarily caused by deficiencies within CLM3.5 and are also associated with the quality of atmospheric forcing field applied.

Natural runoff changes in the Yellow River Basin

The driving factors of runoff changes can be divided into precipitationfactor and non-precipitation factor, and they can also be divided into natural factor and humanactivity factor. In this paper, the ways and methods of these driving factors impacting on runoffchanges are analyzed at first, and then according to the relationship between precipitation andrunoff, the analytical method about impacts of precipitation and non-precipitation factors onbasin's natural runoff is derived. The amount and contribution rates of the two factors impacting onnatural runoff between every two adjacent decades during 1956-1998 are calculated in the YellowRiver Basin (YRB). The results show that the amount and contribution rate of the two factorsimpacting on natural runoff are different in different periods and regions. For the YRB, thenon-precipitation impact is preponderant for natural runoff reduction after the 1970s. Finally, bychoosing main factors impacting on the natural runoff, one error back-propagation (BP) artificialneural network (ANN) model has been set up, and the impact of human activities on natural runoffreduction in the YRB is simulated. The result shows that the human activities could cause a 77 x10^8 m^3·a^(-1) reduction of runoff during 1980-1998 according to the climate background of1956-1979.

Distributed modeling of direct solar radiation on rugged terrain of the Yellow River Basin

Due to the influences of local topographical factors and terrain inter-shielding, calculation of direct solar radiation （DSR） quantity of rugged terrain is very complex. Based on digital elevation model （DEM） data and meteorological observations, a distributed model for calculating DSR over rugged terrain is developed. This model gives an all-sided consideration on factors influencing th a resolution of 1 km × 1 km for thDSR. Using the developed model, normals of annual DSR quantity wie Yellow River Basin was generated, with DEM data as the general characterization of terrain. Characteristics of DSR quantity influenced by geographic and topographic factors over rugged terrain were analyzed thoroughly. Results suggest that： influenced by local topographic factors, i.e. azimuth, slope and so on, and annual DSR quantity over mountainous area has a clear spatial difference; annual DSR quantity of sunny slope （or southern slope） of mountains is obviously larger than that of shady slope （or northern slope）. The calculated DSR quantity of the Yellow River Basin is provided in the same way as other kinds of spatial information and can be employed as basic geographic data for relevant studies as well.

GRACE-based estimates of water discharge over the Yellow River basin

As critical component of hydrologic cycle, basin discharge is a key issue for understanding the hydrological and climatologic related to water and energy cycles. Combining GRACE gravity field models with ET from GLDAS models and precipitation from GPCP, discharge of the Yellow River basin are estimated from the water balance equation. While comparing the results with discharge from GLDAS model and in situ measurements, the results reveal that discharge from Mosaic and CLM GLDAS model can partially represent the river discharge and the discharge estimation from water balance equation could reflect the discharge from precipitation over the Yellow River basin.

Quantitative distinction of the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1981-2019

Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities,vegetation ecosystem has undergone profound changes.It can be seen that there are obvious differences in the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation ecosystem in different historical periods.Therefore,it is urgent to identify and reveal the dominant factors and their contribution rates in the vegetation change cycle.Based on the data of climate elements(sunshine hours,precipitation and temperature),human activities(population intensity and GDP intensity)and other natural factors(altitude,slope and aspect),this study explored the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1989 to 2019 through a residual method,a trend analysis,and a gravity center model,and quantitatively distinguished the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution based on Geodetector model.The results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest.During 1981-2019,the temporal variation of vegetation NDVI showed an overall increasing trend.The gravity centers of average vegetation NDVI during the study period was distributed in Zhenyuan County,Gansu Province,and the center moved northeastwards from 1981 to 2019.During 1981-2000 and 2001-2019,the proportion of vegetation restoration areas promoted by the combined action of climate change and human activities was the largest.During the study period(1981-2019),the dominant factors influencing vegetation NDVI shifted from natural factors to human activities.These results could provide decision support for the protection and restoration of vegetation ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin.

Synergistic effects of multiple driving factors on the runoff variations in the Yellow River Basin,China

River runoff plays an important role in watershed ecosystems and human survival,and it is controlled by multiple environmental factors.However,the synergistic effects of various large-scale circulation factors and meteorological factors on the runoff on different time-frequency scales have rarely been explored.In light of this,the underlying mechanism of the synergistic effects of the different environmental factors on the runoff variations was investigated in the Yellow River Basin of China during the period 1950-2019 using the bivariate wavelet coherence(WTC)and multiple wavelet coherence(MWC)methods.First,the continuous wavelet transform(CWT)method was used to analyze the multiscale characteristics of the runoff.The results of the CWT indicate that the runoff exhibited significant continuous or discontinuous annual and semiannual oscillations during the study period.Scattered inter-annual time scales were also observed for the runoff in the Yellow River Basin.The meteorological factors better explained the runoff variations on seasonal and annual time scales.The average wavelet coherence(AWC)and the percent area of the significant coherence(PASC)between the runoff and individual meteorological factors were 0.454 and 19.89%,respectively.The circulation factors mainly regulated the runoff on the inter-annual and decadal time scales with more complicated phase relationships due to their indirect effects on the runoff.The AWC and PASC between the runoff and individual circulation factors were 0.359 and 7.31%,respectively.The MWC analysis revealed that the synergistic effects of multiple factors should be taken into consideration to explain the multiscale characteristic variations of the runoff.The AWC or MWC ranges were 0.320-0.560,0.617-0.755,and 0.819-0.884 for the combinations of one,two,and three circulation and meteorological factors,respectively.The PASC ranges were 3.53%-33.77%,12.93%-36.90%,and 20.67%-39.34%for the combinations one,two,and three driving factors,respectively.The combinations of precipitation,evapotranspiration(or the number of rainy days),and the Arctic Oscillation performed well in explaining the variability in the runoff on all time scales,and the average MWC and PASC were 0.847 and 28.79%,respectively.These findings are of great significance for improving our understanding of hydro-climate interactions and water resources prediction in the Yellow River Basin.

A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework of Water-Energy-Food System Coupling Coordination in the Yellow River Basin,China

For mankind’s survival and development,water,energy,and food(WEF)are essential material guarantees.In China,however,the spatial distribution of WEF is seriously unbalanced and mismatched.Here,a collaborative governance mechanism that aims at nexus security needs to be urgently established.In this paper,the Yellow River Basin in China with a representative WEF system,was selected as a case.Firstly,a comprehensive framework for WEF coupling coordination was constructed,and the relationship and mechanism between them were analyzed theoretically.Then,we investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of the coupling coordination degree(CCD)with a composite evaluation method,coupling coordination degree model,spatial statistical analysis,and multiscale geographic weighted regression.Finally,policy implications were discussed to promote the coordinated development of the WEF system.The results showed that:1)WEF subsystems showed a significant imbalance of spatial pattern and diversity in temporal changes;2)the CCD for the WEF system varied little and remained at moderate coordination.Areas with moderate coordination have increased,while areas with superior coordination and mild disorder have decreased.In addition,the spatial clustering phenomenon of the CCD was significant and showed obvious characteristics of polarization;and 3)the action of each factor is self-differentiated and regionally variable.For different factors,GDP per capita was of particular importance,which contributed most to the regional development’s coupling coordination.For different regions,GDP per capita,average yearly precipitation,population density,and urbanization rate exhibited differences in geographical gradients in an east-west direction.The conclusion can provide references for regional resource allocation and sustainable development by enhancing WEF system utilization efficiency.

Formation Mechanisms and Geomorphic Evolution of the Erlian Mudflow Fans, Eastern Guide Basin of the Upper Reaches of Yellow River

Several argillaceous platforms lie along the Yellow River（YR） of the eastern Guide Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, and their compositions, formation processes, and geomorphic evolution remain debated. Using field survey data, sample testing, and high-resolution remote sensing images, the evolution of the Erlian mudflow fans are analyzed. The data show significant differences between fans on either side of the YR. On the right bank, fans are dilute debris flows consisting of sand and gravel. On the left bank, fans are viscosity mudflows consisting of red clay. The composition and formation processes of the left bank platforms indicate a rainfall-induced pluvial landscape. Fan evolution can be divided into two stages： early-stage fans pre-date 16 ka B.P., and formed during the last deglaciation; late-stage fans post-date 8 ka B.P.. Both stages were induced by climate change. The data indicate that during the Last Glacial Maximum, the northeastern Tibetan Plateau experienced a cold and humid climate characterized by high rainfall. From 16–8 ka, the YR cut through the Erlian early mudflow fan, resulting in extensive erosion. Since 8 ka, the river channel has migrated south by at least 1.25 km, and late stage mudflow fan formation has occurred.

Responses of terrestrial water cycle components to afforestation within and around the Yellow River basin

Reforestation has attracted worldwide attention because of its multiple environmental benefits,but its impact on water resources is complicated and still controversial. In this study, the authors conducted numerical experiments within and around the Yellow River basin under the Grain-forGreen project using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The results showed that the terrestrial water cycle process was sensitive to land use/cover change in the study region. Under the increase of mixed forests within and below the basin, the basin-averaged precipitation and evaporation increased by 223.17 and 223.88 mm respectively, but the surface runoff decreased by 2.22 mm from 2006 to 2010. In other words, the forest-induced increase in evaporation exceeded that of precipitation along with decreased surface runoff. Importantly, the afforestation effects on water resources seemed to enhance with time, and the effects of the same vegetation change were different in dry and wet years with different precipitation amounts(i.e. different atmospheric circulation background). It should be noted that it is difficult to obtain one product that can explicitly reflect the spatial distribution of actual land cover change promoted by the Grain-for-Green project in the Yellow River basin, which is an important obstacle to clearly identify the reforestation impacts. A land cover dataset derived from advantages of multiple sets of data therefore needs to be proposed.

The Linkage between Two Types of El Ni?o Events and Summer Streamflow over the Yellow and Yangtze River Basins

It is generally agreed that El Nino can be classified into East Pacific(EP)and Central Pacific(CP)types.Nevertheless,little is known about the relationship between these two types of El Ni?o and land surface climate elements.This study investigates the linkage between EP/CP El Ni?o and summer streamflow over the Yellow and Yangtze River basins and their possible mechanisms.Over the Yellow River basin,the anomalous streamflow always manifests as positive(negative)in EP(CP)years,with a correlation coefficient of 0.39(-0.37);while over the Yangtze River basin,the anomalous streamflow shows as positive in both EP and CP years,with correlation coefficients of 0.72 and 0.48,respectively.Analyses of the surface hydrological cycle indicate that the streamflow is more influenced by local evapotranspiration(ET)than precipitation over the Yellow River basin,while it is dominantly affected by precipitation over the Yangtze River basin.The different features over these two river basins can be explained by the anomalous atmospheric circulation,which is cyclonic(anticyclonic)north(south)of 30°N over East Asia.EP years are dominated by two anticyclones,which bring strong water vapor convergence and induce more precipitation but less ET,and subsequently increase streamflow and flooding risks.In CP years,especially over the Yellow River basin,two cyclones dominate and lead to water vapor divergence and reduce moisture arriving.Meanwhile,the ET enhances mainly due to local high surface air temperature,which further evaporates water from the soil.As a result,the streamflow decreases,which will then increase the drought risk.

Farm Production Growth in the Upper and Middle Parts of the Yellow River Basin,China,During 1980-1999

The impact of inputs on farm production growth was evaluated by analyzing the economic data of the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin, China for the period of 1980-1999. Descriptive statistics were employed to characterize the temporal trends and spatial patterns in farm production and five pertinent inputs of cultivated cropland, irrigation ratio, agricultural labor, machinery power and chemical fertilizer. Stochastic frontier production function was applied to quantify the dependence of the farm production on these inputs. The growth of farm production was decomposed to reflect the contributions by input growths and change in total factor productivity.. The change in total factor productivity was further decomposed into the changes in technology and in technical efficiency. The gross value of farm production in the region of study increased by 1.6 fold during 1980-1999. Among the five selected farm inputs, machinery power and chemical fertilizer increased by 1.8 and 2.8 fold, respectively. The increases in cultivated cropland, irrigated cropland, and agricultural labor were all less than 0.16 fold. The growth in the farm production was primarily contributed by the increase in the total factor productivity during 1980-1985, and by input growths after 1985. More than 80% of the contributions by input growths were attributed to the increased application of fertilizer and machinery. In the change of total factor productivity, the technology change dominated over the technical efficiency change in the study period except in the period of 1985-1990, implying that institution and investment played important roles in farm production growth. There was a decreasing trend in the technical efficiency in the region of study, indicating a potential to increase farm production by improving the technical efficiency in farm activities. Given the limited natural resources in the basin, the results of this study suggested that, for a sustainable growth of farm production in the area, efforts should be directed to technology progress and improvement in technical efficiency in the use of available resources.

Evaluation of summer drought ensemble prediction over the Yellow River basin

Accurately predicting drought a few months in advance is important for drought mitigation and agricultural and water resources management,especially for a river basin like that of the Yellow River in North China.However,summer drought predictability over the Yellow River basin is limited because of the low influence from ENSO and the large interannual variations of the East Asian summer monsoon.To explore the drought predictability from an ensemble prediction perspective,29-year seasonal hindcasts of soil moisture drought,taken directly from several North American multimodel ensemble(NMME)models with different ensemble sizes,were compared with those produced by combining bias-corrected NMME model predictions and variable infiltration capacity(VIC)land surface hydrological model simulations.It was found that the NMME/VIC approach reduced the root-mean-square error from the best NMME raw products by 48%for summer soil moisture drought prediction at the lead-1 season,and increased the correlation significantly.Within the NMME/VIC framework,the multimodel ensemble mean further reduced the error from the best single model by 6%.Compared with the NMME raw forecasts,NMME/VIC had a higher probabilistic drought forecasting skill in terms of a higher Brier skill score and better reliability and resolution of the ensemble.However,the performance of the multimodel grand ensemble was not necessarily better than any single model ensemble,suggesting the need to optimize the ensemble for a more skillful probabilistic drought forecast.

Spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of habitat quality in the loess hilly area of the Yellow River Basin:A case study of Lanzhou City,China

Rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to the most serious habitat degradation in China,especially in the loess hilly area of the Yellow River Basin,where the ecological environment is relatively fragile.The contradiction between economic development and ecological environment protection has aroused widespread concern.In this study,we used the habitat quality of Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST-HQ)model at different scales to evaluate the dynamic evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Lanzhou City,Gansu Province of China.The spatiotemporal variations of habitat quality were analyzed by spatial autocorrelation.A Geographical Detector(Geodetector)model was used to explore the driving factors that influencing the spatial differentiation of habitat quality,including natural factors,socio-economic factors,and ecological protection factors.The results showed that the habitat quality index of Lanzhou City decreased from 0.4638 to 0.4548 during 2000-2018.The areas with reduced the habitat quality index were mainly located in the Yellow River Basin and Qinwangchuan Basin,where are the main urban areas and the new economic development areas,respectively.The spatial distribution of habitat quality presented a trend of high in the surrounding areas and low in the middle,and showed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation.With the increase of study scale,the spatial distribution of habitat quality changed from concentrated to dispersed.The spatial differentiation of habitat quality in the study area was the result of multiple factors.Among them,topographic relief and slope were the key factors.The synergistic enhancement among these driving factors intensified the spatial differentiation of habitat quality.The findings of this study can provide a scientific basis for land resources utilization and ecosystem restoration in the arid and semi-arid land.