Health evaluation method for degrading systems subject to dependent competing risks

This paper proposes a health evaluation method for degrading systems subject to competing risks of dependent soft and hard failures. To characterize the time-varying degradation rate, the degradation process is determined by a non-stationary Gamma process and the soft failure is encountered when it exceeds a predefined critical level. For the hard failure, a Cox’s proportional hazard model is applied to describe the hazard rate of the time to system failure. The dependent relationship is modeled by incorporating the degradation process as a time-varying covariate into the Cox’s proportional hazard model. To facilitate the health characteristics evaluation, a discretization technique is applied both to the degradation process and the monitoring time.All health characteristics can be obtained in the explicit form using the transition probability matrix, which is computationally attractive for practical applications. Finally, a numerical analysis is carried out to show the effectiveness and the performance of the proposed health evaluation method.

VOR and CVOR Index for Health Evaluation of Typical Steppe in Inner Mongolia

[Objective] The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of livestock exclusion on the health of grassland ecosystem accurately and quantitatively. [Method] One open grazing site and five seasonal exclusion sites, which had the same vegetation composition （taking Leymus chinensis and Stipa krylovii as main species） and soil type, were chosen as research objects for the VOR and CVOR evaluation of the effect of open grazing and livestock exclusion on the health of typical steppes, and for building the calculation model for VOR and CVOR indices to evaluate the health of typical steppes with different exclusion periods. [ Result] The VOR and CVOR composite indices both could accurately evaluate the health of typical steppes, and the evaluation results from the both indices were quite consistent. Although the condition （C）, vigor（V）, organization （O） and resilience（ R ） indices changed differently in different exclusion periods, the VOR and CVOR composite indices increased gradually with the peri- od of exclusion prolonged, and the health condition of typical steppe changed from ＂alert＂ level （in the open grazing and earlier exclusion period） to ＂healthy＂ level （after 13 to 20 years＇exclusion）. [ Conclusion] The application of exclusion was beneficial to the recovery of degraded grassland ecosystem.

Health economic evaluation on population-based Helicobacter pylori eradication and endoscopic screening for gastric cancer prevention

Gastric cancer is a global public health burden, nearly one million new cases are diagnosed per year worldwide, of which 44% of cases occur in China. The prognosis of gastric cancer varies remarkably by the stage of cancer, and most of the patients in China are diagnosed at advanced stages, resulting in poor prognoses. Effective strategies to reduce the burden of gastric cancer include primary prevention through testing and treatment of Helicobacter pylori(H. pylori) and secondary prevention by screening and early detection. Although many countries have issued management guidelines and consensus reports concerning these strategies, the limited availability of healthcare resources often precludes their widespread implementation. Therefore, assessing the costs, benefits, and harms of population-based intervention measures through health economic evaluation is necessary for informed health policy decisions. Accordingly, we synthesize management approaches from different countries on H. pylori eradication and endoscopic screening, and also summarize recent advancements in health economic evaluations on population-based preventive strategies. The goal of the review is to provide empirical evidence supporting optimal resource allocation, maximizing benefits for the population, and ultimately reducing the burden of gastric cancer.

An Evaluation on Smoking-induced Health Costs in China (1988-1989)

A study on smoking-attributable health economic costs in China was conducted from 1988-1992, in which three major categories of chronic diseases, diseases of cancer, diseases of circulatory system, and diseases of respiratory system were included. A prevalence-based method which estimated the cumulative effect of cigarette smoking during the past 20-30years was used. The results show that in 1989, the total smoking-attributable economic costs to health sectors in China were about 27.1 billion of Chinese Yuan, including about 7 billion Yuan in direct medical costs and 20 billion Yuan in indirect costs, which include indirect morbidity costs and indirect mortality costs. The relatively low direct costs reflected the low medical costs at hospitals in China at that time. And the high proportion of indirect costs relative to the total costs shows the high potential years of life lost due to clgarette smoking. The results also show the heavier health burden in urban areas than in rural areas, reflecting the worse situation in urban China at nowadays. But if considering that almost 80% of the Chinese are rural farmers with the higher smoking prevalence and relatively shorter history of manufactured cigarette smoking than their urban counterparts,the very frightful situation due to cigarette smoking would be for China in the next century

Prospective evaluation of health status, quality of life and clinical outcomes following implantable defibrillator generator exchange

BACKGROUND Little is known about health status and quality of life(QoL)after implantable cardioverter-defibrillator(ICD)generator exchange(GE).METHODS We prospectively followed patients undergoing first-time ICD GE.Serial assessments of health status were performed by administering the 36-Item Short Form Survey(SF-36).RESULTS Mean age was 67.5±14.3 years,left ventricle ejection fraction(LVEF)was 36.5%±15.0%and over 40%of the cohort had improved LVEF to>35%at the time of GE.SF-36 scores were significantly worse in physical/general health domains compared to domains of emotional/social well-being(P<0.001 for each comparison).Physical health scores were significantly worse among those with medical comorbidities including diabetes,chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and atrial fibrillation.Mean follow-up was 1.6±0.5 years after GE.Overall SF-36 scores remained stable across all domains during follow-up.Survival at 3 years post-GE was estimated at 80%.Five patients died during follow-up and most deaths were adjudicated as non-arrhythmic in origin.Four patients experienced appropriate ICD shocks after GE,three of whom had LVEF which remains impaired LVEF(i.e.,<35%)at the time of GE.CONCLUSION Patients undergoing ICD GE have significantly worse physical health compared to emotional/social well-being,which is associated with the presence of medical comorbidities.In terms of clinical outcomes,the incidence of appropriate shocks after GE among those with improvement in LVEF is very low,and most deaths post-procedure appear to be non-arrhythmic in origin.These data represent an attempt to more fully characterize the spectrum of QoL and clinical outcomes after GE.

The Role of Health Inequality in the Maternal Health Services Provided by Public Institutions in Mexico

This work aims to determine the role of inequality in the provision of maternal health services among five regions in Mexico (northwest, northeast, central, the Mexico City-State of Mexico region and the south). We consider the most important service providers corresponding to the main health institutions in Mexico (IMSS, ISSSTE, SESAS, IMSS-Oportunidades). Therefore, a cross-sectional prospective study was conducted to analyze eight intervention packages (Prenatal Care, Syphilis, Influenza, Obstetric Urgent Care, HIV in pregnancy, delivery care, neonatal care and accessibility) offered by the Maternal and Perinatal Health (MPH) program. A quantitative analysis demonstrates low to marginal performance of the MPH program in three regions (South, Mexico City-State of Mexico and the Northwest) and marginal in two other regions (Central and Northeast). Furthermore, four of the intervention packages presented the lowest performance in the South (Prenatal Care, Syphilis, Influenza and Obstetric Urgent Care), as did the average of the total of the MPH packages. The performance of HIV in Pregnancy package was marginal in the Southern and Mexico City-State of Mexico regions and Neonatal Care was low in the Northwest. The assessment of the MPH intervention packages allows us to identify their strengths and weaknesses. This information allows us to identify similarities and differences among the geographical regions in order to describe and analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the current system and hence to improve the decision making regarding the Maternal and Perinatal Health Programs in Mexico. The results suggest that a homogenization has taken place in terms of the low quality of the services.

Assessment of the Accessibility of Users in Primary Health Care

Objectives: The goal of this project was to evaluate the quality of the accessibility of the adult population to services in Primary Health Care, with a view to contribute to the development of measures that will propose improvement in the offered assistance. Methods: This is a quantitative and evaluative study made in the municipality of Santa Cruz, State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, with a sample of 180 people. The study was approved by the Ethics and Research Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte under Opinion number 152/2012. Results: It was found that the adult population classified the quality of care from regular to good, showing an association with the waiting time, time spent from the unit to one’s house and the reception. Conclusions: It could be concluded that this study contributes to the development of strategies able to provide a full and equitable care to the adult population in the primary health care network, since this is the gateway to other levels of care, because it aims to promote adult health and prevent diseases.

Longitudinal Care Evaluation in Child Healthcare

Objective: To evaluate the essential attribute of Primary Health Care, longitudinal care, care directed at children from birth to two years old. Methods: This is a descriptive and exploratory study of evaluative character and quantitative approach, conducted with parents/caregivers of 186 children, younger than two years old, patients of primary health care services in the city of Santa Cruz/RN, Brazil. For data collection, the instrument Primary Care Assessment Tools (PCA Tools) was used, and the results of the questions dealing with longitudinal attribute were evaluated. The data were stored and processed in Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Health Sciences School of Trairí, under number 348896. Results: The mean age of children in months was 8.21;84.4% (n = 157) were assisted by the same doctor/nurse every time;in 81.7% (n = 152) of cases the doctor/nurse know the full medical history of the child;73.7% (n = 137) answered that the professional know their child more as a person than just as someone with a health problem;48.9% (n = 91) stated that the doctor/nurse do not know their family very well;86.6% (n = 161) reported finding the doctor/nurse understands what is saying or questioning;96.2 (n = 179) of respondents said the doctor/nurse answers the questions so that they understand;96.2% (n = 179) of the interviewed said they feel comfortable telling the concerns or problems of their child to the doctor/nurse;66.7% (n = 124) claimed that they would not change the service/doctor/nurse to another health service. Conclusion: It is concluded that the attribute was well rated by the mothers of children seen in primary health care services and that they can establish good communication and relationship with the health professionals who treat their children.

Assessment of Comprehensive Health Care of the Elderly in Primary Health Care

Objective: To assess comprehensive care in the elderly population, as well as the quality of care in Primary Health Care. Methods: This is an exploratory descriptive study with a quantitative approach, conducted from July to December 2012, in the city of Santa Cruz, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. A sample of 130 subjects chosen by drawn was calculated, and data collection was performed at their homes. Results: There were interviewed 130 people, 92 (70.8%) women and 38 men (29.2%), with a minimum age of 60 and maximum of 96 years, with a mean of 72.8, median of 72.0 and a standard deviation of 8.3. Regarding the quality of care ratings of the PHC team, 48.5% (n = 63) of respondents stated this to be good, while 32.3% (n = 42) rated this as fair. Conclusions: In this perspective, one of the most appreciated meanings that were given to comprehensive care by health care professionals refers to holistic knowledge of each patient, resulting in the non-fragmentation of care. Thus, it is noticed that comprehensiveness has some weaknesses that need to be corrected, which shows the need for education and training of professionals assigned to primary health care services.

Concept and evaluation of bay health:the role of numerical model in the Yueqing Bay,China

To better evaluate the three-dimensional bay health and predict the dynamic bay health conditions, a concept of numerical bay health was introduced and a method of numerical bay health evaluation（NBHE） was developed.To support the NBHE method, a numerical bay health index（NBHI） system was constructed, which assess the natural and socio-economic effects on the entire bay. Five index groups are combined to formulate the NBHI,including geometry, hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics, bio-ecology, water quality and socio-economy.Each group has different number of indices selected and weighted using AHP method according to their importance. Data were mainly synthesized from a variety of numerical models together with monitoring programs, which provide superior to other approaches in discriminating data integrity and predicting data in future. The NBHE method using NBHI system was applied in the Yueqing Bay during spring tide in April 2007.According to the NBHE results, Sta. A, at the surface level of the estuarine mouth, has a healthy geometry condition, sub-healthy hydrodynamic and sediment dynamic condition, and unhealthy water quality and bioecology conditions. The integrated healthy score at Sta. A indicates its sub-healthy condition.

Physiology and health assessment,risk balance,and model for endstage liver disease scores:Postoperative outcome of liver transplantation

BACKGROUND Liver transplantation aims to increase the survival of patients with end-stage liver diseases and improve their quality of life.The number of organs available for transplantation is lower than the demand.To provide fair organ distribution,predictive mortality scores have been developed.AIM To compare the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV(APACHE IV),balance of risk(BAR),and model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)scores as predictors of mortality.METHODS Retrospective cohort study,which included 283 adult patients in the postoperative period of deceased donor liver transplantation from 2014 to 2018.RESULTS The transplant recipients were mainly male,with a mean age of 58.1 years.Donors were mostly male,with a mean age of 41.6 years.The median cold ischemia time was 3.1 hours,and the median intensive care unit stay was 5 days.For APACHE IV,a mean of 59.6 was found,BAR 10.7,and MELD 24.2.The 28-day mortality rate was 9.5%,and at 90 days,it was 3.5%.The 28-day mortality prediction for APACHE IV was very good[area under the curve(AUC):0.85,P<0.001,95%CI:0.76-0.94],P<0.001,BAR(AUC:0.70,P<0.001,95%CI:0.58–0.81),and MELD(AUC:0.66,P<0.006,95%CI:0.55-0.78),P<0.008.At 90 days,the data for APACHE IV were very good(AUC:0.80,P<0.001,95%CI:0.71–0.90)and moderate for BAR and MELD,respectively,(AUC:0.66,P<0.004,95%CI:0.55–0.77),(AUC:0.62,P<0.026,95%CI:0.51–0.72).All showed good discrimination between deaths and survivors.As for the best value for liver transplantation,it was significant only for APACHE IV(P<0.001).CONCLUSION The APACHE IV assessment score was more accurate than BAR and MELD in predicting mortality in deceased donor liver transplant recipients.

Prognostic value of red blood cell distribution width for severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND Severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)is a common condition in the intensive care unit(ICU)and has a high mortality.Early evaluation of the severity and prognosis is very important for SAP therapy.Recently,red blood cell distribution(RDW)was associated with mortality of sepsis patients and could be used as a predictor of prognosis.Similarly,RDW may be associated with the prognosis of SAP patients and be used as a prognostic indicator for SAP patients.AIM To investigate the prognostic value of RDW for SAP patients.METHODS We retrospectively enrolled SAP patients admitted to the ICU of the First Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University from June 2015 to June 2017.According to the prognosis at 90 d,SAP patients were divided into a survival group and a non-survival group.RDW was extracted from a routine blood test.Demographic parameters and RDW were recorded and compared between the two groups.The receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve was constructed and Cox regression analysis was performed to investigate the prognostic value of RDW for SAP patients.RESULTS In this retrospective cohort study,42 SAP patients were enrolled,of whom 22 survived(survival group)and 20 died(non-survival group).The baseline parameters were comparable between the two groups.The coefficient of variation of RDW(RDW-CV),standard deviation of RDW(RDW-SD),Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II(APACHE II)score,and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA)score were significantly higher in the non-survival group than in the survival group(P<0.05).The RDW-CV and RDW-SD were significantly correlated with the APACHE II score and SOFA score,respectively.The areas under the ROC curves(AUCs)of RDW-CV and RDW-SD were all greater than those of the APACHE II score and SOFA score,among which,the AUC of RDW-SD was the greatest.The results demonstrated that RDW had better prognostic value for predicting the mortality of SAP patients.When the RDW-SD was greater than 45.5,the sensitivity for predicting prognosis was 77.8%and the specificity was 70.8%.Both RDW-CV and RDW-SD could be used as independent risk factors to predict the mortality of SAP patients in multivariate logistic regression analysis and univariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis,similar to the APACHE II and SOFA scores.CONCLUSION The RDW is greater in the non-surviving SAP patients than in the surviving patients.RDW is significantly correlated with the APACHE II and SOFA scores.RDW has better prognostic value for SAP patients than the APACHE II and SOFA scores and could easily be used by clinicians for the treatment of SAP patients.

Predictors of the outcomes of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

AIM： To identify the risk factors in predicting the out- come of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure pa- tients. METHODS： We retrospectively divided 113 patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure-hepatitis B virus （ACLF-HBV） and without concurrent hepatitis C or D virus infection and hepatocellular carcinoma into two groups according to their outcomes after anti-HBV therapy. Their demographic, clinical, and biochemical data on the day of diagnosis and after the first week of treatment were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test, Fisher＇s exact test, and a multiple logistic regres- sion analysis. RESULTS： The study included 113 patients （87 men and 26 women） with a mean age of 49.84 years. Fifty- two patients survived, and 61 patients died. Liver failure （85.2%）, sepsis （34.4%）, and multiple organ failure （39.3%） were the main causes of death. Mul- tivariate analyses showed that Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation （APACHE） Ⅱ scores ≥ 12 [odds ratio （OR） = 7.160, 95% CI： 2.834-18.092, P 〈 0.001] and positive blood culture （OR = 13.520, 95% CI： 2.740-66.721, P = 0.001） on the day of diagnosis and model for end-stage liver disease （MELD） scores 28 （OR = 8.182, 95% CI： 1.884-35.527, P = 0.005） after the first week of treatment were independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION： APACHE II scores on the day of diag- nosis and MELD scores after the first week of anti-HBV therapy are feasible predictors of outcome in ACLF- HBV patients.

Diagnostic role of soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cell-1 in patients with sepsis

BACKGROUND：Biomarkers may be helpful in risk stratification and prediction of mortality in septic patients. This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic role of soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid celI-I（sTREM-1）, procalcitonin （PCT）, C-reactive protein （CRP） and other inflammatory markers in patients with sepsis. METHODS：A total of 56 patients with systemic inflammation response syndrome （SIRS） who had been admitted to the ICU department of the Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University between May 2009 and July 2010 were enrolled. They were divided into a sepsis group （n=32） and a SIRS group （n=24）. Twenty-five non-SIRS patients served as controls. The sepsis group was sub-divided into a survival group and a death group according to 28-day prognosis. The values of sTREM-1, PCT, CRP, white blood cell （WBC）, and neutrophil count percentage （N） were measured. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II （APACHE II） score were determined within 24 hours. The correlation between sTREM-1 and APACHE II score was analyzed. Quantitative data were analyzed by the F test or the KruskaI-Wallis test. RESULTS： The plasma level of sTREM-1 in the sepsis group was significantly higher than that in the SIRS group and control group. The plasma level of sTREM-1 in the non-survival group was significantly higher than that in the survival group. In the sepsis group, the plasma sTREM-1 level was positively correlated with APACHE II score （rs=0.426, P= 0.032）. The area under the ROC curve of sTREM-1 was 0.935, larger than that of PCT and CRP. CONCLUSION：Plasma sTREM-1 is useful in the diagnosis of sepsis at early stage. The increased level of sTREM-1 during the first 24 hours may be correlated with poor outcome of patients with sepsis.

Clinical significance of melatonin concentrations in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

AIM: To assess the value of plasma melatonin in predicting acute pancreatitis when combined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II?(APACHEII) and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems.METHODS: APACHEII and BISAP scores were calculated for 55 patients with acute physiology (AP) in the first 24 h of admission to the hospital. Additionally, morning (6:00 AM) serum melatonin concentrations were measured on the first day after admission. According to the diagnosis and treatment guidelines for acute pancreatitis in China, 42 patients suffered mild AP (MAP). The other 13 patients developed severe AP (SAP). A total of 45 healthy volunteers were used in this study as controls. The ability of melatonin and the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems to predict SAP was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The optimal melatonin cutoff concentration for SAP patients, based on the ROC curve, was used to classify the patients into either a high concentration group (34 cases) or a low concentration group (21 cases). Differences in the incidence of high scores, according to the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems, were compared between the two groups.RESULTS: The MAP patients had increased melatonin levels compared to the SAP (38.34 ng/L vs 26.77 ng/L) (P = 0.021) and control patients (38.34 ng/L vs 30.73 ng/L) (P = 0.003). There was no significant difference inmelatoninconcentrations between the SAP group and the control group. The accuracy of determining SAP based on the melatonin level, the APACHEII score and the BISAP score was 0.758, 0.872, and 0.906, respectively, according to the ROC curve. A melatonin concentration ≤ 28.74 ng/L was associated with an increased risk of developing SAP. The incidence of high scores (≥ 3) using the BISAP system was significantly higher in patients with low melatonin concentration (≤ 28.74 ng/L) compared to patients with high melatonin concentration (> 28.74 ng/L) (42.9% vs 14.7%, P = 0.02). The incidence of high APACHEII scores (≥ 10) between the two groups was not significantly different.CONCLUSION: The melatonin concentration is closely related to the severity of AP and the BISAP score. Therefore, we can evaluate the severity of disease by measuring the levels of serum melatonin.

Association between acute pancreatitis and peptic ulcer disease

AIM:To evaluate the relationship between peptic ulcer disease(PUD) and acute pancreatitis.METHODS:A cohort of 78 patients with acute pancreatitis were included in this study.The presence of PUD and the Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori) status were assessed by an endoscopic method.The severity of acute pancreatitis was assessed using Ranson's score,the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE) □ score,computed tomography severity indexand the clinical data during hospitalization,all of which were compared between the patients with and without PUD.The risk factors for PUD were also evaluated.RESULTS:Among 78 patients,41 patients(52.6%) with acute pancreatitis suffered from PUD,but only 13(31.7%) patients with PUD were infected by H.pylori.On univariate analysis,male gender,an etiology of alcohol-induced pancreatitis,a history of smoking or alcohol consumption,elevated triglyceride and C-reactive protein levels,and high APACHE □ score were signif icantly associated with PUD.However,on multivariate logistic regressionanalysis,the APACHE □ score(odds ratio:7.69;95% conf idence interval:1.78-33.33;P < 0.01) was found to be the only independent risk factor for PUD.CONCLUSION:Patients with acute pancreatitis are liable to suffer from PUD.PUD is associated with severeacute pancreatitis according to the APACHE □ score,and treatment for PUD should be considered for patients with severe acute pancreatitis.

Predictors of irreversible intestinal resection in patients with acute mesenteric venous thrombosis

BACKGROUND Acute mesenteric venous thrombosis(AMVT)can cause a poor prognosis.Prompt transcatheter thrombolysis(TT)can achieve early mesenteric revascularization.However,irreversible intestinal ischemia still occurs and the mechanism is still unclear.AIM To evaluate the clinical outcomes of and to identify predictive factors for irreversible intestinal ischemia requiring surgical resection in AMVT patients treated by TT.METHODS The records of consecutive patients with AMVT treated by TT from January 2010 to October 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.We compared patients who required resection of irreversible intestinal ischemia to patients who did not require.RESULTS Among 58 patients,prompt TT was carried out 28.5 h after admission.A total of 42(72.4%)patients underwent arteriovenous combined thrombolysis,and 16(27.6%)underwent arterial thrombolysis alone.The overall 30-d mortality rate was 8.6%.Irreversible intestinal ischemia was indicated in 32(55.2%)patients,who had a higher 30-d mortality and a longer in-hospital stay than patients without resection.The significant independent predictors of irreversible intestinal ischemia were Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)II score(odds ratio=2.368,95% confidence interval:1.047-5.357,P=0.038)and leukocytosis(odds ratio=2.058,95% confidence interval:1.085-3.903,P=0.027).Using the receiver operating characteristic curve,the cutoff values of the APACHE II score and leukocytosis for predicting the onset of irreversible intestinal ischemia were calculated to be 8.5 and 12×10^9/L,respectively.CONCLUSION Prompt TT could achieve a favorable outcome in AMVT patients.High APACHE II score and leukocytosis can significantly predict the occurrence of irreversible intestinal ischemia.Therefore,close monitoring of these factors may help with the early identification of patients with irreversible intestinal ischemia,in whom ultimately surgical resection is required,before the initiation of TT.

Prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis on admission by urinary trypsinogen activation peptide: A meta-analysis

AIM: To undertake a meta-analysis on the value of urinary trypsinogen activation peptide (uTAP) in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis on admission.METHODS: Major databases including Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials in the Cochrane Library were searched to identify all relevant studies from January 1990 to January 2013. Pooled sensitivity, specificity and the diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) with 95%CI were calculated for each study and were compared to other systems/biomarkers if mentioned within the same study. Summary receiver-operating curves were conducted and the area under the curve (AUC) was evaluated.RESULTS: In total, six studies of uTAP with a cut-off value of 35 nmol/L were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of uTAP for predicting severity of acute pancreatitis, at time of admission, was 71% and 75%, respectively (AUC = 0.83, DOR = 8.67, 95%CI: 3.70-20.33). When uTAP was compared with plasma C-reactive protein, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC and DOR were 0.64 vs 0.67, 0.77 vs 0.75, 0.82 vs 0.79 and 6.27 vs 6.32, respectively. Similarly, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC and DOR of uTAP vs Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II within the first 48 h of admission were found to be 0.64 vs 0.69, 0.77 vs 0.61, 0.82 vs 0.73 and 6.27 vs 4.61, respectively.CONCLUSION: uTAP has the potential to act as a stratification marker on admission for differentiating disease severity of acute pancreatitis.

Effects of high-volume hemofiltration on alveolar- arterial oxygen exchange in patients with refractory septic shock

BACKGROUND：High-volume hemofiltration （HVHF） is technically possible in severe acute pancreatitis （SAP） patients complicated with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome （MODS）. Continuous HVHF is expected to become a beneficial adjunct therapy for SAP complicated with MODS. In this study, we aimed to explore the effects of fluid resuscitation and HVHF on alveolar- arterial oxygen exchange, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II （APACHE II） score in patients with refractory septic shock. METHODS：A total of 89 refractory septic shock patients, who were admitted to ICU, the Provincial Hospital affiliated to Shandong University from August 2006 to December 2009, were enrolled in this retrospective study. The patients were randomly divided into two groups： fluid resuscitation （group A, n=41）, and fluid resuscitation plus high-volume hemofiltration （group B, n=48）, The levels of O2 content of central venous blood （CcvO2）, arterial oxygen content （CaO2）, alveolar-arterial oxygen pressure difference P（A-a）DO2, ratio of arterial oxygen pressure/alveolar oxygen pressure （PaO2/ PAO2）, respiratory index （RI） and oxygenation index （OI） were determined. The oxygen exchange levels of the two groups were examined based on the arterial blood gas analysis at different times （0, 24, 72 hours and 7 days of treatment） in the two groups. The APACHE II score was calculated before and after 7-day treatment in the two groups. The levels of CcvO2, CaO2 on day 7 in group A were significantly lower than those in group B （CcvO2：0.60±0.24 vs, 0.72±0.28, P〈0.05; CaO2：0.84±0.43 vs. 0.94±0.46, P〈0.05）. The level of oxygen extraction rate （O2ER） in group A on the 7th day was significantly higher than that in group B （ 28.7±2.4 vs. 21.7±3.4, P〈0.01）. The levels of P（A-a）DO2 and RI in group B on the 7th day were significantly lower than those in group A. The levels of PaO2/PAO2 and OI in group B on 7th day were significantly higher than those in group A （P〈0.05 or P〈0.01）. The APACHE II score in the two groups reduced gradually after 7-day treatment, and the APACHE II score on the 7th day in group B was significantly lower than that in group A （8.2±3.8 vs. 17.2±6.8, P〈0.01）. HVHF combined with fluid resuscitation can improve alveolar- arterial-oxygen exchange, decrease the APACHE II score in patients with refractory septic shock, and thus it increases the survival rate of patients.

Different phenotypes of monocytes in patients with newonset mild acute pancreatitis

AIM To evaluate the numbers of different subsets of monocytes and their associations with the values of clinical measures in mild acute pancreatitis(MAP) patients.METHODS The study included one group of 13 healthy controls and another group of 24 patients with new-onset MAP. The numbers of different subsets of monocytes were examined in these two groups of subjects by flow cytometry. The concentrations of plasma interleukin(IL)-10 and IL-12 were determined by cytometric bead array. The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation(APACHE) II scores of individual patients were evaluated, and the levels of plasma C-reactive protein(CRP) as well as the activities of amylase and lipase were measured. RESULTS In comparison with that in the controls, significantly increased numbers of CD14+CD163-, CD14+CD163-MAC387+ M1 monocytes, but significantly reduced numbers of CD14+CD163+IL-10+ M2 monocytes were detected in the MAP patients(P < 0.01 or P < 0.05). Furthermore, significantly higher levels of plasma IL-10 and IL-12 were observed in the MAP patients(P < 0.01 for all). More importantly, the levels of plasma CRP were positively correlated with the numbers of CD14+CD163-(R = 0.5009, P = 0.0127) and CD14+CD163-MAC387+(R = 0.5079, P = 0.0113) M1 monocytes and CD14+CD163+CD115+ M2 monocytes(R = 0.4565, P = 0.0249) in the patients. The APACHE II scores correlated with the numbers of CD14+CD163+CD115+(R = 0.4581, P = 0.0244) monocytes and the levels of plasma IL-10(R = 0.4178, P = 0.0422) in the MAP patients. However, there was no significant association among other measures tested in this population. CONCLUSION Increased numbers of CD14+CD163- and CD14+ CD163-MAC387+ monocytes may contribute to the pathogenesis of MAP, and increased numbers of CD14+CD163+CD115+ monocytes may be a biomarker for evaluating the severity of MAP.