Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,a...Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,and to explore future interventions.Methods The epidemiological,behavioral,and population census data from multiple sources were analyzed to extract inputs for an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)epidemic model(AEM).Baseline curves,derived from historical trends in HIV prevalence,were used,and the AEM was employed to examine future intervention scenarios.Results In 2015,the modeled data suggested an adult HIV prevalence of 0.191%in Sichuan,with an estimated 128,766 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,983 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Considering current high-risk behaviors,the model predicts an increase in the adult prevalence to 0.306%by 2025,projecting an estimated 212,168 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,555 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Conclusion Heterosexual transmission will likely emerge as the primary mode of AIDS transmission in Sichuan.Furthermore,we anticipate a stabilization in the incidence of AIDS with a concurrent increase in prevalence.Implementing comprehensive intervention measures aimed at high-risk groups could effectively alleviate the spread of AIDS in Sichuan.展开更多
The control of HIV demands different interventions for different age groups.In the present manuscript,we formulate and analyze a mathematical compartmental models of HIV transmission within and between two age groups ...The control of HIV demands different interventions for different age groups.In the present manuscript,we formulate and analyze a mathematical compartmental models of HIV transmission within and between two age groups in Kenya.We fitted the model to data using MCMC technique and inferred the parameters.We also estimate the reproduction numbers,namely within age group transmission and between age groups transmission basic reproduction numbers.The analysis of the data revealed that there is significant difference in mean number of new HIV infections between males and females within the two age groups.More,particularly,females are highly infected with HIV as compared to their male counterparts.Calculation of the reproduction numbers within and between age groups provides insights into control that cannot be deduced simply from observations on the prevalence of infection.More specifically,the analysis showed that the per capita rate of HIV transmission was highest when there is interaction between young adults to adults and most HIV infections occurred in adult population.Furthermore,the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the reproduction numbers depend mainly on the probabilities of infection.This results can be used to guide HIV interventions,condom distribution and antiretroviral therapy.Precisely,the results can be used to educate the young adults on practicing safe sex with their partners in order to contain the occurrence of new infections.展开更多
Background Heterosexual sex has become the dominant transmission route in China. Recently studies reported high heterogeneity in heterosexual transmission risk in resource-limited countries. The aim of this study was ...Background Heterosexual sex has become the dominant transmission route in China. Recently studies reported high heterogeneity in heterosexual transmission risk in resource-limited countries. The aim of this study was to summarize the risk of HIV transmission among Chinese serodiscordant couples. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies of heterosexual HIV transmission among serodiscordant couples in China was conducted. Two reviewers conducted a literature search using the China National Knowledge Infrastructure （CNKI）, Chinese Medical Current Contents （CMCC）, and Medline databases. Pooled transmission estimates per 100 person-years （PY） were calculated using a random-effects model. Meta-regression analysis and subgroup analysis stratified by study design, transmission direction and period of antiretroviral therapy （ART） availability were conducted to assess the factors associated with transmission. Results Eleven eligible studies were identified reporting on 11 984 couples and 405 HIV transmission events. HIV transmission risk from HIV-positive individuals to heterosexual partners was 1.68 （95% Cl 0.74-2.62） per 100 PY. Study design did not reach statistical significance in meta-regression analysis. The pooled female-to-male transmission estimate was 1.11 （95% CI 0.09-2.14） per 100 PY and male-to-female transmission estimate was 1.43 （95% Cl 0.19-2.68） per 100 PY. The pooled estimate for those before the availability of the Chinese National Free Antiretroviral Therapy Program （2.13 （95% Cl 0.00-4.63） per 100 PY） was higher than that for those after the implementation of this program （1.44 （95% CI 0.62-2.26） per 100 PY）. Conclusions Transmission estimates in China were lower than other developing countries, but higher than developed countries. Research that better defines HIV secondary transmission rates and the associated behavioral, treatment adherence, and health-related risk factors among heterosexual serodiscordant couples in China is needed.展开更多
基金funded by the Humanities and Social Sciences Research Project of Ministry of Education of China[Grant ID:18YJA840018].
文摘Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,and to explore future interventions.Methods The epidemiological,behavioral,and population census data from multiple sources were analyzed to extract inputs for an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)epidemic model(AEM).Baseline curves,derived from historical trends in HIV prevalence,were used,and the AEM was employed to examine future intervention scenarios.Results In 2015,the modeled data suggested an adult HIV prevalence of 0.191%in Sichuan,with an estimated 128,766 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,983 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Considering current high-risk behaviors,the model predicts an increase in the adult prevalence to 0.306%by 2025,projecting an estimated 212,168 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,555 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Conclusion Heterosexual transmission will likely emerge as the primary mode of AIDS transmission in Sichuan.Furthermore,we anticipate a stabilization in the incidence of AIDS with a concurrent increase in prevalence.Implementing comprehensive intervention measures aimed at high-risk groups could effectively alleviate the spread of AIDS in Sichuan.
文摘The control of HIV demands different interventions for different age groups.In the present manuscript,we formulate and analyze a mathematical compartmental models of HIV transmission within and between two age groups in Kenya.We fitted the model to data using MCMC technique and inferred the parameters.We also estimate the reproduction numbers,namely within age group transmission and between age groups transmission basic reproduction numbers.The analysis of the data revealed that there is significant difference in mean number of new HIV infections between males and females within the two age groups.More,particularly,females are highly infected with HIV as compared to their male counterparts.Calculation of the reproduction numbers within and between age groups provides insights into control that cannot be deduced simply from observations on the prevalence of infection.More specifically,the analysis showed that the per capita rate of HIV transmission was highest when there is interaction between young adults to adults and most HIV infections occurred in adult population.Furthermore,the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the reproduction numbers depend mainly on the probabilities of infection.This results can be used to guide HIV interventions,condom distribution and antiretroviral therapy.Precisely,the results can be used to educate the young adults on practicing safe sex with their partners in order to contain the occurrence of new infections.
文摘Background Heterosexual sex has become the dominant transmission route in China. Recently studies reported high heterogeneity in heterosexual transmission risk in resource-limited countries. The aim of this study was to summarize the risk of HIV transmission among Chinese serodiscordant couples. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies of heterosexual HIV transmission among serodiscordant couples in China was conducted. Two reviewers conducted a literature search using the China National Knowledge Infrastructure （CNKI）, Chinese Medical Current Contents （CMCC）, and Medline databases. Pooled transmission estimates per 100 person-years （PY） were calculated using a random-effects model. Meta-regression analysis and subgroup analysis stratified by study design, transmission direction and period of antiretroviral therapy （ART） availability were conducted to assess the factors associated with transmission. Results Eleven eligible studies were identified reporting on 11 984 couples and 405 HIV transmission events. HIV transmission risk from HIV-positive individuals to heterosexual partners was 1.68 （95% Cl 0.74-2.62） per 100 PY. Study design did not reach statistical significance in meta-regression analysis. The pooled female-to-male transmission estimate was 1.11 （95% CI 0.09-2.14） per 100 PY and male-to-female transmission estimate was 1.43 （95% Cl 0.19-2.68） per 100 PY. The pooled estimate for those before the availability of the Chinese National Free Antiretroviral Therapy Program （2.13 （95% Cl 0.00-4.63） per 100 PY） was higher than that for those after the implementation of this program （1.44 （95% CI 0.62-2.26） per 100 PY）. Conclusions Transmission estimates in China were lower than other developing countries, but higher than developed countries. Research that better defines HIV secondary transmission rates and the associated behavioral, treatment adherence, and health-related risk factors among heterosexual serodiscordant couples in China is needed.
