A Novel Heuristic Algorithm for theModeling and Risk Assessment of the COVID-19 Pandemic Phenomenon

Themodeling and risk assessment of a pandemic phenomenon such as COVID-19 is an important and complicated issue in epidemiology,and such an attempt is of great interest for public health decision-making.To this end,in the present study,based on a recent heuristic algorithm proposed by the authors,the time evolution of COVID-19 is investigated for six different countries/states,namely New York,California,USA,Iran,Sweden and UK.The number of COVID-19-related deaths is used to develop the proposed heuristic model as it is believed that the predicted number of daily deaths in each country/state includes information about the quality of the health system in each area,the age distribution of population,geographical and environmental factors as well as other conditions.Based on derived predicted epidemic curves,a new 3D-epidemic surface is proposed to assess the epidemic phenomenon at any time of its evolution.This research highlights the potential of the proposed model as a tool which can assist in the risk assessment of the COVID-19.Mapping its development through 3D-epidemic surface can assist in revealing its dynamic nature as well as differences and similarities among different districts.

HEURISTIC MODELING FOR A DYNAMIC AND GOAL PROGRAMMING IN PRODUCTION PLANNING OF CONTINUOUS MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS

At the first sight it seems that advanced operation research is not used enough in continuous production systems as comparison with mass production, batch production and job shop systems, but really in a comprehensive evaluation the advanced operation research techniques can be used in continuous production systems in developing countries very widely, because of initial inadequate plant layout, stage by stage development of production lines, the purchase of second hand machineries from various countries, plurality of customers. A case of production system planning is proposed for a chemical company in which the above mentioned conditions are almost presented. The goals and constraints in this issue are as follows： （1） Minimizing deviation of customer＇s requirements. （2） Maximizing the profit. （3） Minimizing the frequencies of changes in formula production. （4） Minimizing the inventory of final products. （5） Balancing the production sections with regard to rate in production. （6） Limitation in inventory of raw material. The present situation is in such a way that various techniques such as goal programming, linear programming and dynamic programming can be used. But dynamic production programming issues are divided into two categories, at first one with limitation in production capacity and another with unlimited production capacity. For the first category, a systematic and acceptable solution has not been presented yet. Therefore an innovative method is used to convert the dynamic situation to a zero- one model. At last this issue is changed to a goal programming model with non-linear limitations with the use of GRG algorithm and that＇s how it is solved.

Selection of regression models for predicting strength and deformability properties of rocks using GA

Recently,many regression models have been presented for prediction of mechanical parameters of rocks regarding to rock index properties.Although statistical analysis is a common method for developing regression models,but still selection of suitable transformation of the independent variables in a regression model is diffcult.In this paper,a genetic algorithm(GA)has been employed as a heuristic search method for selection of best transformation of the independent variables(some index properties of rocks)in regression models for prediction of uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)and modulus of elasticity(E).Firstly,multiple linear regression(MLR)analysis was performed on a data set to establish predictive models.Then,two GA models were developed in which root mean squared error(RMSE)was defned as ftness function.Results have shown that GA models are more precise than MLR models and are able to explain the relation between the intrinsic strength/elasticity properties and index properties of rocks by simple formulation and accepted accuracy.

In Silico Investigation of Agonist Activity of a Structurally Diverse Set of Drugs to hPXR Using HM-BSM and HM-PNN

The human pregnane X receptor（hPXR） plays a critical role in the metabolism, transport and clearance of xenobiotics in the liver and intestine. The hPXR can be activated by a structurally diverse of drugs to initiate clinically relevant drug-drug interactions. In this article, in silico investigation was performed on a structurally diverse set of drugs to identify critical structural features greatly related to their agonist activity towards h PXR. Heuristic method（HM）-Best Subset Modeling（BSM） and HM-Polynomial Neural Networks（PNN） were utilized to develop the linear and non-linear quantitative structure-activity relationship models. The applicability domain（AD） of the models was assessed by Williams plot. Statistically reliable models with good predictive power and explain were achieved（for HM-BSM, r^2=0.881, q^2_（LOO）=0.797, q^2_（EXT）=0.674; for HM-PNN, r^2=0.882, q^2_（LOO）=0.856, q^2_（EXT）=0.655）. The developed models indicated that molecular aromatic and electric property, molecular weight and complexity may govern agonist activity of a structurally diverse set of drugs to h PXR.

A high-precision heuristic model to detect home and work locations from smart card data

Smart card-automated fare collection systems now routinely record large volumes of data comprising the origins and destinations of travelers.Processing and analyzing these data open new opportunities in urban modeling and travel behavior research.This study seeks to develop an accurate framework for the study of urban mobility from smart card data by developing a heuristic primary location model to identify the home and work locations.The model uses journey counts as an indicator of usage regularity,visit-frequency to identify activity locations for regular commuters,and stay-time for the classification of work and home locations and activities.London is taken as a case study,and the model results were validated against survey data from the London Travel Demand Survey and volunteer survey.Results demonstrate that the proposed model is able to detect meaningful home and work places with high precision.This study offers a new and cost-effective approach to travel behavior and demand research.