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Cascading Delays for the High-Speed Rail Network Under Different Emergencies:A Double Layer Network Approach
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作者 Xingtang Wu Mingkun Yang +3 位作者 Wenbo Lian Min Zhou Hongwei Wang Hairong Dong 《IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica》 SCIE EI CSCD 2023年第10期2014-2025,共12页
High-speed rail(HSR) has formed a networked operational scale in China. Any internal or external disturbance may deviate trains’ operation from the planned schedules, resulting in primary delays or even cascading del... High-speed rail(HSR) has formed a networked operational scale in China. Any internal or external disturbance may deviate trains’ operation from the planned schedules, resulting in primary delays or even cascading delays on a network scale. Studying the delay propagation mechanism could help to improve the timetable resilience in the planning stage and realize cooperative rescheduling for dispatchers. To quickly and effectively predict the spatial-temporal range of cascading delays, this paper proposes a max-plus algebra based delay propagation model considering trains’ operation strategy and the systems’ constraints. A double-layer network based breadth-first search algorithm based on the constraint network and the timetable network is further proposed to solve the delay propagation process for different kinds of emergencies. The proposed model could deal with the delay propagation problem when emergencies occur in sections or stations and is suitable for static emergencies and dynamic emergencies. Case studies show that the proposed algorithm can significantly improve the computational efficiency of the large-scale HSR network. Moreover, the real operational data of China HSR is adopted to verify the proposed model, and the results show that the cascading delays can be timely and accurately inferred, and the delay propagation characteristics under three kinds of emergencies are unfolded. 展开更多
关键词 Delay propagation double layer network high speed rail network max-plus algebra
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Challenges of the Performance Standards of the International Finance Corporation in Financing the African Integrated High-Speed Railway Network and the Way Forward: The Case of Standard Gauge Railway in Tanzania
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作者 Emmanuele Elifadhili Mchome Uwezo Wilbard Nzoya 《Journal of Transportation Technologies》 2023年第4期772-788,共17页
Financing of the African Integrated High-Speed Railway Network (AIHSRN) through Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) Projects is very expensive. As a result, most of the African countries seek financial supports from the Inte... Financing of the African Integrated High-Speed Railway Network (AIHSRN) through Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) Projects is very expensive. As a result, most of the African countries seek financial supports from the International Financial Institutions (IFIs). However, conditions provided by the IFIs through the Performance Standards (PS) of the International Financial Corporation (IFC) increase cost of the projects and thus, it becomes a burden to most of the African countries. This study aimed to explore the causes of IFC-PS through the SGR Projects that escalate costs and how to address them. The Tanzania SGR Lot 1 Project that covered 205 km from Dar es Salaam to Morogoro was selected as a case study. The methods used for data collection involved literature review, focus group discussions and interviews. The results and findings show a gap between the IFC-PS and the National Laws and Regulations that escalates costs of the projects if funds from the IFIs were to be secured. To bridge the gap, it is recommended that the African countries should engage into negotiations with the IFIs to agree to waive IFC-PS conditions that escalate costs provided they are adequately covered in the national laws and regulations;engagement of locally established national and regional financial institutions;and the responsible government institutions in the African countries should sit together for assessment and review of the IFC-PS against the national laws and regulations. 展开更多
关键词 African Integrated high-speed Railway network International Financial Institutions Standard Gauge Railway Performance Standards
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A novel optical burst switching architecture for high speed networks 被引量:2
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作者 Amit Kumar Garg R.S.Kaler 《Chinese Optics Letters》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2008年第11期807-811,共5页
A novel optical burst switching (OBS) high speed network architecture has been proposed. To verify its feasibility and evaluate its performance, just-enough-time (JET) signaling has been considered as a high perfo... A novel optical burst switching (OBS) high speed network architecture has been proposed. To verify its feasibility and evaluate its performance, just-enough-time (JET) signaling has been considered as a high performance protocol. In the proposed architecture, to avoid burst losses, firstly, a short-prior- confirmation-packet (SPCP) is sent over the control channel that simulates the events that the actual packet will experience. Once SPCP detects a drop at any of the intermediate nodes, the actual packet is not sent but the process repeats. In order to increase network utilization, cost effectiveness and to overcome some limitations of conventional OBS, inherent codes (e.g., orthogonal optical codes (OOC)), which are codified only in intensity, has been used. Through simulations, it shows that a decrease in burst loss probability, cost effectiveness and a gain in processing time are obtained when optical label processing is used as compared with electronic processing. 展开更多
关键词 NODE OBS A novel optical burst switching architecture for high speed networks LENGTH high
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Research and improvement on packet capture mechanism in linux for high-speed network 被引量:2
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作者 杨武 方滨兴 +1 位作者 云晓春 张宏莉 《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》 EI CAS 2005年第5期494-498,共5页
With the increasing enlargement of network scale and the rapid development of network techniques, large numbers of the network applications begin to appear. Packet capture plays an important role as one basic techniqu... With the increasing enlargement of network scale and the rapid development of network techniques, large numbers of the network applications begin to appear. Packet capture plays an important role as one basic technique used in each field of the network applications. In a high-speed network, the heavy traffic of network transmission challenges the packet capture techniques. This paper does an in-depth analysis on the traditional packet capture mechanisms in Linux, and then measures the performance bottleneck in the process of packet capture. The methods for improving the packet capture performance are presented and an optimized packet capture scheme is also designed and implemented. The test demonstrates that the new packet capture mechanism (Libpacket) can greatly improve the packet capture performance of the network application systems in a high-speed network. 展开更多
关键词 高速网络 信息包 通信协议 LKM 网络安全 网络管理
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CW-HSTCP: Fair TCP in high-speed networks 被引量:1
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作者 潘雪增 苏凡军 +1 位作者 吕勇 平玲娣 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2006年第2期172-178,共7页
The congestion control mechanisms of the current standard TCP constrain the congestion windows that can be achieved by TCP in high-speed networks, which leads to low link utilization. HSTCP is one solution to solve th... The congestion control mechanisms of the current standard TCP constrain the congestion windows that can be achieved by TCP in high-speed networks, which leads to low link utilization. HSTCP is one solution to solve this problem by modifying the congestion control mechanism to have the characteristics of TCP friendliness in high loss rate environment and high scalability in low loss rate environment. However, experiments revealed that HSTCP has severe RTT unfairness. After analyzing the RTT unfairness in HSTCP with a model, we proposed CW-HSTCP, which added a fair factor to decrease the difference of congestion window caused by different RTT. Fair factor of long RTT flows can cause a sharp window increment that is easy to cause a bursty traffic, so a method called block-pacing was adopted. Simulation results showed that our new proposal could alleviate the RTT unfairness while keeping advantages of HSTCP. 展开更多
关键词 高速网络 阻塞控制 TCP CW-HSTCP 通信协议
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A Real-Time TCP Stream Reassembly Mechanism in High-Speed Network 被引量:3
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作者 熊兵 陈晓苏 陈宁 《Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University(English Edition)》 2009年第3期185-191,共7页
With the continual growth of the variety and complexity of network crime means, the traditional packet feature matching cannot detect all kinds of intrusion behaviors completely. It is urgent to reassemble network str... With the continual growth of the variety and complexity of network crime means, the traditional packet feature matching cannot detect all kinds of intrusion behaviors completely. It is urgent to reassemble network stream to perform packet processing at a semantic level above the network layer. This paper presents an efficient TCP stream reassembly mechanism for real-time processing of high-speed network traffic. By analyzing the characteristics of network stream in high-speed network and TCP connection establishment process, several polices for designing the reassembly mechanism are built. Then, the reassembly implementation is elaborated in accordance with the policies. Finally, the reassembly mechanism is compared with the traditional reassembly mechanism by the network traffic captured in a typical gigabit gateway. Experiment results illustrate that the reassembly mechanism is efficient and can satisfy the real-time property requirement of traffic analysis system in high-speed network. 展开更多
关键词 TCP stream reassembly high-speed network Real-time property Reassembly policy
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A Genetic Based Fuzzy Q-Learning Flow Controller for High-Speed Networks 被引量:2
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作者 Xin LI Yuanwei JING +1 位作者 Nan JIANG Siying ZHANG 《International Journal of Communications, Network and System Sciences》 2009年第1期84-89,共6页
For the congestion problems in high-speed networks, a genetic based fuzzy Q-learning flow controller is proposed. Because of the uncertainties and highly time-varying, it is not easy to accurately obtain the complete ... For the congestion problems in high-speed networks, a genetic based fuzzy Q-learning flow controller is proposed. Because of the uncertainties and highly time-varying, it is not easy to accurately obtain the complete information for high-speed networks. In this case, the Q-learning, which is independent of mathematic model, and prior-knowledge, has good performance. The fuzzy inference is introduced in order to facilitate generalization in large state space, and the genetic operators are used to obtain the consequent parts of fuzzy rules. Simulation results show that the proposed controller can learn to take the best action to regulate source flow with the features of high throughput and low packet loss ratio, and can avoid the occurrence of congestion effectively. 展开更多
关键词 high-speed network Flow Control FUZZY Q-LEARNING GENETIC OPERATOR
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Extraction Fuzzy Linguistic Rules from Neural Networks for Maximizing Tool Life in High-speed Milling Process 被引量:2
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作者 SHEN Zhigang HE Ning LI Liang 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2009年第3期341-346,共6页
In metal cutting industry it is a common practice to search for optimal combination of cutting parameters in order to maximize the tool life for a fixed minimum value of material removal rate(MRR). After the advent ... In metal cutting industry it is a common practice to search for optimal combination of cutting parameters in order to maximize the tool life for a fixed minimum value of material removal rate(MRR). After the advent of high-speed milling(HSM) pro cess, lots of experimental and theoretical researches have been done for this purpose which mainly emphasized on the optimization of the cutting parameters. It is highly beneficial to convert raw data into a comprehensive knowledge-based expert system using fuzzy logic as the reasoning mechanism. In this paper an attempt has been presented for the extraction of the rules from fuzzy neural network(FNN) so as to have the most effective knowledge-base for given set of data. Experiments were conducted to determine the best values of cutting speeds that can maximize tool life for different combinations of input parameters. A fuzzy neural network was constructed based on the fuzzification of input parameters and the cutting speed. After training process, raw rule sets were extracted and a rule pruning approach was proposed to obtain concise linguistic rules. The estimation process with fuzzy inference showed that the optimized combination of fuzzy rules provided the estimation error of only 6.34 m/min as compared to 314 m/min of that of randomized combination of rule s. 展开更多
关键词 high-speed milling rule extraction neural network fuzzy logic
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Sensitivity analysis of distributed parameter elements in high-speed circuit networks
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作者 Lei DOU Zhiquan WANG 《控制理论与应用(英文版)》 EI 2007年第1期53-56,共4页
This paper presents an analysis method, based on MacCormack's technique, for the evaluation of the time domain sensitivity of distributed parameter elements in high-speed circuit networks. Sensitivities can be calcul... This paper presents an analysis method, based on MacCormack's technique, for the evaluation of the time domain sensitivity of distributed parameter elements in high-speed circuit networks. Sensitivities can be calculated from electrical and physical parameters of the distributed parameter elements. The proposed method is a direct numerical method of time-space discretization and does not require complicated mathematical deductive process. Therefore, it is very convenient to program this method. It can be applied to sensitivity analysis of general transmission lines in linear or nonlinear circuit networks. The proposed method is second-order-accurate. Numerical experiment is presented to demonstrate its accuracy and efficiency. 展开更多
关键词 Sensitivity analysis Distributed parameter Multiconductor transmission fines high-speed circuit networks MacCormack method
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Noisy Chaotic Neural Network for Resource Allocation in High-Speed Train OFDMA System 被引量:1
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作者 赵宜升 纪红 陈忠辉 《Transactions of Tianjin University》 EI CAS 2014年第5期368-374,共7页
High-speed train communication system is a typical high-mobility wireless communication network. Resource allocation problem has a great impact on the system performance. However, conventional resource allocation appr... High-speed train communication system is a typical high-mobility wireless communication network. Resource allocation problem has a great impact on the system performance. However, conventional resource allocation approaches in cellular network cannot be directly applied to this kind of special communication environment. A multidomain resource allocation strategy was proposed in the orthogonal frequency-division multiple access(OFDMA) of high-speed. By analyzing the effect of Doppler shift, sub-channels, antennas, time slots and power were jointly considered to maximize the energy efficiency under the constraint of total transmission power. For the purpose of reducing the computational complexity, noisy chaotic neural network algorithm was used to solve the above optimization problem. Simulation results showed that the proposed resource allocation method had a better performance than the traditional strategy. 展开更多
关键词 资源分配问题 混沌神经网络 OFDMA 列车系统 无线通信网络 资源分配策略 正交频分多址 神经网络算法
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A Control Simulation Method of High-Speed Trains on Railway Network with Irregular Influence
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作者 杨立兴 李想 李克平 《Communications in Theoretical Physics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第9期411-418,共8页
Based on the discrete time method,an effective movement control model is designed for a group of highspeedtrains on a rail network.The purpose of the model is to investigate the specific traffic characteristics of hig... Based on the discrete time method,an effective movement control model is designed for a group of highspeedtrains on a rail network.The purpose of the model is to investigate the specific traffic characteristics of high-speedtrains under the interruption of stochastic irregular events.In the model,the high-speed rail traffic system is supposedto be equipped with the moving-block signalling system to guarantee maximum traversing capacity of the railway.Tokeep the safety of trains’ movements,some operational strategies are proposed to control the movements of trains inthe model,including traction operation,braking operation,and entering-station operation.The numerical simulationsshow that the designed model can well describe the movements of high-speed trains on the rail network.The researchresults can provide the useful information not only for investigating the propagation features of relevant delays underthe irregular disturbance but also for rerouting and rescheduling trains on the rail network. 展开更多
关键词 高速列车 铁路网络 控制模 仿真方法 轨道交通系统 火车模型 运动安全 制动操作
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Analysis of Dual-Core Type City and Its Hinterland Contact Pattern under the Background of High-Speed Rail Networking—Urban Agglomeration in Zhejiang Province as an Example
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作者 Xiaohong Ren 《Journal of Transportation Technologies》 2016年第4期207-217,共12页
Under the background of high-speed rail networking, this paper uses the passenger trains, the type and direction of the railway via Hang Yong and its extension road line, to construct adsorption and dependency index a... Under the background of high-speed rail networking, this paper uses the passenger trains, the type and direction of the railway via Hang Yong and its extension road line, to construct adsorption and dependency index among cities, depict the contact pattern between the Hang Yong dual-core and its hinterland, measure the “net effect” that two center cities (Hangzhou, Ningbo) have on their hinterland, and estimate population agglomeration potential and future possible population flows of Zhejiang Province and the main sample cities. The result shows that, compared with Ningbo, Hangzhou has stronger radiation force to the vast majority of sample cities, and the sample cities affected more by Ningbo mainly concentrates in Ningbo-Taizhou-Wenzhou along;in addition, the sample cities such as Hangzhou, Ningbo and so on show better population agglomeration, then the population “scramble” phenomenon between cities has begun to appear. 展开更多
关键词 high-speed Rail networking Contact Pattern Measurement
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High-Performance Network Communications for CSCW
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作者 宋军 顾冠群 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 1996年第2期7-12,共6页
Computer supported cooperative work as a new multi disciplinary research area, brings a lot of new challenges for the computer technologies. Having analyzed the CSCW applications by using the groupware space time mat... Computer supported cooperative work as a new multi disciplinary research area, brings a lot of new challenges for the computer technologies. Having analyzed the CSCW applications by using the groupware space time matrix, we conclude that the communicatio 展开更多
关键词 CSCW high speed network MULTIMEDIA high performance COMMUNICATIONS platform
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Study on Factors Affecting the Structure of High Speed Steel Ingot Produced by ESR 被引量:1
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作者 Li Zhengbang Che Xiangqian 《Journal of Iron and Steel Research(International)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 1996年第1期1-4,共4页
The influence of the metal pool depth and the local solidification time on the structure of high speed steel ingot produced by electroslag remelting (ESR) process has been studied by measuring the dendritic arm spacin... The influence of the metal pool depth and the local solidification time on the structure of high speed steel ingot produced by electroslag remelting (ESR) process has been studied by measuring the dendritic arm spacing and the size of the carbides. It is shown that the metal pool depth is a factor that influences the uniformity of the ESR ingot structure and not only the dendritic arm spacing, but also the size of the carbides can be influenced by the local solidification time in the solidification process of the ingot. The relationship between the melting rate during ESR process and the local solidification time has been studied. It is shown that there is an optimum melting rate at which the local solidification time is minimum as a result of the combination of the influence of the melt rate on the width of the local mushy zone and on the local solidification rate. The influence of the inoculants on the solidification structure of high speed steel produced by ESR has been studied and it is shown that the size of the grain can be significantly reduced by inoculation process. 展开更多
关键词 high speed steel electroslag remelting carbide network ledeburite size INOCULANT
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EVCP:a convergence time improved high-speed transport congestion control protocol
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作者 LU Guang WANG Yong-chao ZHU Miao-liang 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2007年第6期849-856,共8页
The Internet evolves to incorporate very-high-bandwidth optical links and more large-delay satellite links. TCP faces new challenges in this unique environment. Theory and experiments showed that TCP becomes inefficie... The Internet evolves to incorporate very-high-bandwidth optical links and more large-delay satellite links. TCP faces new challenges in this unique environment. Theory and experiments showed that TCP becomes inefficient and is prone to be unstable as the per-flow product of bandwidth and latency increases, regardless of the queuing scheme. Variable-structure congestion Control Protocol (VCP) is proposed to address these problems. However, VCP has problem in terms of convergence time, i.e., it takes a long time for a new VCP flow to achieve fair bandwidth allocation if the existing VCP flows have large con- gestion windows. This paper proposed an Extended Variable-structure congestion Control Protocol (EVCP), which adopted a convergence controller. The basic idea of convergence controller is that if a flow has larger window than its fair window, its congestion window should be decreased more aggressively than usual in Multiplicative Decrease (MD) phase. Simulations showed that EVCP has better performance in terms of convergence time while keeping the advantages of VCP. 展开更多
关键词 EVCP 拥塞控制协议 高速网络 收敛时间
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ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSMISSION PROPERTIES OF TAPERED MUTLICONDUCTOR INTERCONNECTING BUSES IN HIGH-SPEED INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
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作者 王秉中 《Journal of Electronics(China)》 1994年第1期22-27,共6页
Analysis approach and formulas for the transmission properties of uniform multicon-ductor interconnecting buses in high-speed integrated circuits are presented in this article. And further, by using a network approach... Analysis approach and formulas for the transmission properties of uniform multicon-ductor interconnecting buses in high-speed integrated circuits are presented in this article. And further, by using a network approach, a tapered bus system can be analyzed as a set of cascaded uniform buses with slightly different strip widths. Obtained results are in good agreement with the experimental data. 展开更多
关键词 high speed integrated circuit INTERCONNECTION TRANSMISSION LINES network SCATTERING PARAMETER
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Resource Allocation in D2D-Aided High-Speed Railway Wireless Communication Systems: A Matching Theory Approach
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作者 Meilin Gao Bo Ai +3 位作者 Yong Niu Zhewei Zhang YanqingXu Dapeng Li 《China Communications》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第12期87-99,共13页
With the rapid deployment of high speed railway(HSR) worldwide,both safety operation and comfort experience can be desired to evolve into a future era of intelligent transportation system.To eliminate boredom and prov... With the rapid deployment of high speed railway(HSR) worldwide,both safety operation and comfort experience can be desired to evolve into a future era of intelligent transportation system.To eliminate boredom and provide entertainment for passengers,an intranet for internal communications among passengers named as onboard social network system(SNS) is needed.In this paper,the latest progress in HSR network architectures and technology building blocks are discussed to enable the implementation of the SNS.Meanwhile,based on the device-to-device(D2 D) communication technology for proximal information interaction,SNS can be efficiently facilitated.A dynamic resource allocation algorithm is proposed to maximize the total utility of the onboard SNS,which is solved with the matching theory method.Simulation results verify the convergence and efficiency of the proposed algorithm. 展开更多
关键词 D2D high speed RAILWAY match-ing theory resource ALLOCATION social networksystem
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高铁场景下意图驱动的网络智能运营研究
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作者 王晓刚 郭严伟 +3 位作者 柴景申 王波 赵娜 贾海蓉 《邮电设计技术》 2024年第5期8-13,共6页
随着4G/5G网络的深入应用,高铁移动网络的用网体验成为人们持续关注的焦点。对高铁场景下意图驱动的网络智能运营进行了研究。充分利用大数据和AI技术等新质生产力技术,采用高铁车体移动指纹分析、切换序列判定等算法精准识别高铁用户,... 随着4G/5G网络的深入应用,高铁移动网络的用网体验成为人们持续关注的焦点。对高铁场景下意图驱动的网络智能运营进行了研究。充分利用大数据和AI技术等新质生产力技术,采用高铁车体移动指纹分析、切换序列判定等算法精准识别高铁用户,采用时序覆盖特征分析、频繁项挖掘算法等技术准确识别高铁路网覆盖情况,并以此为基础构建出高铁质差用户和小区的“评估-定位-闭环处理-效果验证”端到端闭环处理流程。 展开更多
关键词 大数据 智能化 自动化 高铁感知 高铁移动网络
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空铁综合运输网络结构特征实证分析
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作者 王飞 伍加伟 黄宝军 《科学技术与工程》 北大核心 2024年第7期2901-2908,共8页
为探究中国空铁综合运输网络结构特性,以城市为节点,若城市间有航班或高铁则连边,以航班数量和高铁数量为权重,分别建立了3个加权网络:高铁子网络、航空子网络和空铁综合运输网络。首先,通过均值关联、三角中介中心度、加权谐波中心度... 为探究中国空铁综合运输网络结构特性,以城市为节点,若城市间有航班或高铁则连边,以航班数量和高铁数量为权重,分别建立了3个加权网络:高铁子网络、航空子网络和空铁综合运输网络。首先,通过均值关联、三角中介中心度、加权谐波中心度指标对比研究了不同网络的关键节点;其次,通过聚类系数和平均最短路径长度研究了三个网络的小世界特性;再次,通过Newman算法研究了三个网络的社团结构;最后,通过加权网络效率为指标,研究了三个网络的鲁棒性。研究结果表明,北上广深是三个网络的三种不同加权中心度的排名都很靠前,是共有的最为关键的节点。三个网络都具有小世界特性,但只有高铁子网络的模块度值大于0.3,存在明显的社团结构,并被划分为了10个社团。空铁综合运输网络具有更好的加权网络效率,约为0.32,为三个网络中最高,节点失效时的加权效率变化最小,鲁棒性最强。可见空铁综合运输网络集成了高铁网络、航空网络的互补优势,网络结构特征优于单一运输网络。 展开更多
关键词 综合运输 空铁综合运输加权网络 节点中心度 网络社团结构 网络鲁棒性
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高速铁路三维控制网粗差实时判别方法研究
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作者 曹娟华 秦航 吴维军 《铁道勘察》 2024年第3期15-20,27,共7页
高速铁路三维控制网外业观测易受不利环境因素影响,难免存在测量粗差,为了尽早识别测量粗差,提高外业数据质量及后续平差结果的精度,需进行三维控制网粗差实时判别方法的研究。根据三维控制网网形及其特点,详细分析三维控制网闭合环的类... 高速铁路三维控制网外业观测易受不利环境因素影响,难免存在测量粗差,为了尽早识别测量粗差,提高外业数据质量及后续平差结果的精度,需进行三维控制网粗差实时判别方法的研究。根据三维控制网网形及其特点,详细分析三维控制网闭合环的类型,采用三维控制网(Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类、Ⅲ类)22种闭合环进行闭合差计算;同时,基于协方差传播定律构建闭合环校核边中误差的数学模型,以2倍闭合环相对中误差为限差,判别三维控制网外业数据质量。研究表明,三维控制网网形具有较强的规律性和对称性,在完成归整后,可使用1/7000,1/13000和1/23000为对应闭合环的极限误差进行粗差判别。研究结果表明,在三维控制网外业数据观测过程中,采用该方法能够实时判别并发现测量粗差,有利于以最小代价进行现场补测,从而提高三维控制网数据可靠性和数据质量。 展开更多
关键词 高速铁路 三维控制网 粗差判别 协方差 闭合差
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