Extension of Goal-Directed Behavior Model for Post-Pandemic Korean Travel Intentions to Alternative Local Destinations: Perceived Risk and Knowledge

Since the outbreak of COVID-19,tourists have been increasingly concerned over various risks of international travel,while knowledge of the pandemic appears to vary significantly.In addition,as travel restrictions continue to impact adversely on international tourism,tourism efforts should be placed more on the domestic markets.Via structural equation modeling,this study unearthed different risk factors impacting Korean travelers’choices of alternative local destinations in the post-pandemic era.In addition,this study extended the goal-directed behavior framework with the acquisition of perceived risk and knowledge of COVID-19,which was proven to hold a sig-nificantly superior explanatory power of tourists’decisions of local alternatives over foreign countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.Furthermore,desire was found to play an imminent mediating role in the conceptual mod-el,maximizing the impact of perceived risk on travel intentions.Henceforth,this research offers meaningful the-oretical implication as thefirst empirical study to deepen the goal-directed behaviour framework with perceived risk and knowledge in the context of post-COVID-19 era.It also serves as insightful knowledge for Korean tour-ism authorities and practitioners to understand local tourists’decision-making processes and tailor effective recovery strategy for domestic tourism.

Thoughts of a travelling ecologist 14. Structure-function conflation in environmental risk assessment and monitoring

Recently,I attended a conference organised by the European Food Safety Authority in the beautiful and prosperous Italian city of Parma.The overall topic of the conference was risk assessment,and the program included a section on aspects of environmental risk assessment.In various areas,including the evalution of the effects of pesticide applications,invasive organisms or genetically modified plants(Arpaia et al.,2014)preparing an environmental risk assessment is an obviously relevant exercise.

On the Association between Travel Distance and Treatment Choice for Low-Risk Prostate Cancer: Results from a Rural State

Background: Evidence suggests that cancer patients with increased travel burden to treatment centers may have limited treatment options. Purpose: To investigate the association between travel distance to a treatment facility and initial treatment choice among young men with low-risk prostate cancer in a rural state. Methods: A retrospective medical charts review was conducted of young men (65 years or younger) newly diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2014 who were treated with either active surveillance, radical prostatectomy, or brachytherapy at either of the two major hospital systems in Bismarck, ND, USA. Results: Information on a random sample of 242 patients was studied. The majority of patients (66%) received radical prostatectomy. Patients who received radical prostatectomy were significantly younger (p-value 0.001). PSA at diagnosis, clinical stage, and Gleason score were not associated with treatment choice (p-value = 0.06;p-value = 0.1794;and p-value = 1.00;respectively). Adjusting for age at diagnosis, PSA at diagnosis, and treatment facility, treatment choice was not associated with travel distance (p-value = 0.309). Patients treated at St. Alexius facility were more likely to undergo radical prostatectomy than Sanford health patients (p-value Conclusions: We found no association between travel distance and treatment choice for low-risk prostate cancer. Treatment choice was associated with institution which may suggest institutional bias in patterns of care.

Alpha-reliable combined mean traffic equilibrium model with stochastic travel times

Based on the reliability budget and percentile travel time(PTT) concept, a new travel time index named combined mean travel time(CMTT) under stochastic traffic network was proposed. CMTT here was defined as the convex combination of the conditional expectations of PTT-below and PTT-excess travel times. The former was designed as a risk-optimistic travel time index, and the latter was a risk-pessimistic one. Hence, CMTT was able to describe various routing risk-attitudes. The central idea of CMTT was comprehensively illustrated and the difference among the existing travel time indices was analyzed. The Wardropian combined mean traffic equilibrium(CMTE) model was formulated as a variational inequality and solved via an alternating direction algorithm nesting extra-gradient projection process. Some mathematical properties of CMTT and CMTE model were rigorously proved. Finally, a numerical example was performed to characterize the CMTE network. It is founded that that risk-pessimism is of more benefit to a modest(or low) congestion and risk network, however, it changes to be risk-optimism for a high congestion and risk network.

Online fault recognition of electric power cable in coal mine based on the minimum risk neural network

Firstly,the concepts of the traveling wave entropy and the feature function of traveling wave entropy were defined.Then the statistic characters of the traveling wave entropy feature function,mean value and variance were analyzed after the zero-order component of the traveling wave of online cable was selected to serve as the observed object.Finally,the new recognition algorithm of minimum risk neural network was pre- sented.The simulation experiments show that the recognitions of the early fault states can be completed correctly by using the proposed recognition algorithm.The classes of cable faults include in 1-phase ground faults,and the 2-phase short circuit faults or ground faults and the 3-phase short circuit faults or ground faults,open circuit.The fault resistance range is 1×10^(-1)～1×10~9Ω.

Factors Affecting Disease Risk Perception and Self-Management Behaviors among Japanese Long-Term Overseas Volunteers

Introduction: Many overseas volunteers have worked in low and middle-income countries. However traveling abroad and staying in an unfamiliar environment with inadequate medical infrastructure exposes volunteers to a wide range of health risks. The aim of this study was to clarify the relationships among disease knowledge and symptoms, disease risk perception, and self-management skills. Methods: This was a questionnaire survey of 189 Japanese who were preparing to volunteer abroad. A factor analysis was conducted on 13 items (six general risk events and seven major diseases) of risk perception. Correlation analysis was performed between the identified risk perception factors and disease knowledge and symptoms. Risk perception scores by factors from the seven disease items were compared between the Self-management Score (SMS) group and disease knowledge and risk of symptoms group, using T-tests. St. Luke’s International University Ethics Committee (19-A092) approved this study. Results: Many participants expected to suffer from digestive diseases (69.3%) and dermatitis (55%) in the field. On the other hand, few expected high risk of malaria (26.5%) or dengue fever (36%). Factor analysis yielded robust factor loadings creating a “Dread” and an “Unknown” factor accounting for 62.2% of total variance. Strong correlation was not found between SMS and disease risk perception. A weak negative correlation was observed in dengue fever, digestive disorders, and dermatitis (r = −0.20 to −0.25, p < 0.001) on the “Unknown” factor. A high SMS score was associated with a lower “Unknown” factor score for malaria, diarrhea, dermatitis, and dental disorders. In addition, higher disease knowledge was significantly associated with higher “Dread” factor score for dental disorders. Conclusions: Self-management skills and disease knowledge will enable higher risk awareness of common diseases and high lethality diseases.

交通路网灾害风险系统影响分析

当交通设施因自然灾害、恶劣气候及严重交通事故服务中断时 ,会引起用户出行成本的增加 ,并造成部分出行取消。本文根据用户成本的构成 ,建立交通需求及分配模型进行单位用户成本的评估。由用户成本及补救工作成本构成的灾害损失即灾害后果是道路关闭时间、其他绕行路线可用性及补救措施的函数。同时本文通过灾害发生概率及相应后果对灾害进行了风险评估 ,并建议了减少道路关闭概率或相应损失的常见方法 。

消费者旅游感知风险维度识别及差异分析

旅游感知风险是影响消费者旅游决策的关键因素,对感知风险的维度识别与影响因素的研究尤为重要。该研究通过文献分析、预调研、大样本调查和探索性因子分析得出旅游消费者基于损失分类的感知风险维度,研究发现,除身体风险、功能风险、财务风险、沟通风险、心理风险、社会风险6个基本感知风险维度外,还存在服务风险、设施风险和沟通风险3个旅游消费情境下特定的感知风险维度。通过方差分析,发现在不同的消费者人口统计特征和旅游行为特征下,各维度的感知风险水平存在显著差异。

基于风险认知概念模型的旅游风险认知分析——以上海市民为例

本文对风险认知概念模型及其在旅游产业中的应用作了简要回顾,并据此设计了旅游风险认知调查量表。分析表明,在财物风险、绩效风险、身体风险、社会风险、心理风险、医疗风险、治安风险和设施设备8项旅游风险中,游客较为重视设施设备风险、医疗风险、治安风险和身体风险等实体风险。同时,文章还分析了风险认知的个性差异与群体差异,并对旅游风险的防范与规避提出了建议。

青藏铁路沿线旅游安全风险评价

安全是旅游业发展的生命线。旅游地安全风险已成为我国旅游业可持续发展的重要障碍因素,也是近年来国内外旅游科学研究关注的重点领域之一。青藏铁路沿线是我国旅游业发展的重要区域,也是旅游高风险区域。以风险理论为基础,在充分考虑旅游风险评估复杂性和不确定性的基础上,构建了青藏铁路沿线旅游风险评级指标体系,通过层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评判方法,对青藏铁路沿线10大区段旅游旺季的风险进行评估。结果发现:低风险区段有6个:湟水谷地区段、拉萨河谷区段、柴达木盆地东北亚高山区段、柴达木盆地盐湖戈壁区段、青海湖盆地区段、昆仑高山区段;一般风险区段有2个:念青唐古拉宽谷盆地区段、怒江源宽谷区段;高风险区段有2个:可可西里-长江源宽谷区段、唐古拉极高山区段。

旅途精神病的危险因素及其相关分析

作者对长途列车旅行中发生旅途精神病的危险因素及其与生理指标、心理指标、临床症状的相关性进行了调查。结果表明：①发病者多是农民、文化程度较低，女性亦占一定比例；②车厢ＣＯ２浓度、有无座位、乘车时间、性格内外向、乘车次数是与旅途精神病发生有关的危险因素；③相关分析进一步对危险因素与生理指标、心理状态、临床症状的关系予以揭示。本研究提示，旅途精神病可能是易感人群对长途旅行这一应激的极端表现，车厢的ＣＯ２浓度亦起重要作用。

徒步旅游感知风险及其影响研究

在户外徒步旅游安全问题凸显的背景下,从风险的主观方面探索徒步旅游者感知风险的维度及其影响非常重要。以桂林地区徒步活动爱好者为对象,通过文献分析、实地访谈和问卷调查,得出了徒步旅游的感知风险维度。研究发现,徒步旅游存在"人身风险"和"心理风险"两个基本的感知风险维度,并揭示了这两种感知风险的不同性质和作用。通过统计分析发现,性别和行为特征对徒步旅游感知风险水平有着明显的影响。

我国高危险性旅游项目安全保障系统构建研究

目前兴起的高危险性旅游项目越来越受到旅游者的青睐,随之而生的各种旅游安全问题也极其严重。本文分析了高危险性旅游项目的概况、特征及存在的问题,构建了高危险性旅游项目安全保障系统,以期解决高危险性旅游项目的安全问题。

基于竞争风险模型的居民活动-出行计划研究

对出行者活动-出行计划行为的研究有助于进一步解析出行者的行为决策机理,也是制定和实施交通管理政策的前提.本文扩展了传统的基于单一删失事件的生存风险研究,将竞争风险模型应用于出行者活动时间分配行为的研究,基于吉林市居民出行数据的分析,提取出行者制定活动计划的影响因素,通过敏感性分析,解析出行者在连续时间轴上活动参与类型与活动持续时间的联合选择过程.结果表明:出行者N次与N+1次活动之间存在相互联系、相互制约关系,且关系强度又随着参与活动类型的不同而存在显著差异,竞争风险模型能有效应用于这些差异性的分析,丰富和扩展了出行行为的分析理论与方法.

考虑风险规避和认知更新的日常择路行为演进

为了刻画出行者的日常择路行为,利用动力学系统方法和不动点理论,建立了一个集成风险规避和认知更新的演化模型,分析了演化过程的稳定性,并在一个简单网络上进行了验证。发现在模拟开始的前15 d内,出行时间预算、路径期望出行时间、实际出行时间以及路径流量都出现了较大的波动,但经过大约30 d的摸索以后,开始趋向于随机用户均衡状态。分析结果表明:模型所设计的择路演化过程类似于经典的相继平均算法的计算过程,可以确保收敛到稳定状态,并与初始状态参数的取值无关。

北京奥运交通规划与组织经验

总结北京奥运会筹备和运行期间交通规划和组织经验,可以为其他大型赛事活动提供借鉴。从奥运交通需求特征出发,探讨奥运交通需求与背景交通需求的兼容性和差异性。重点阐述奥运交通规划体系的构成,分析目标层、总体规划层、具体专项规划层、奥运专项规划层4个规划层级的内容及相互关系,指出奥运交通规划体系集成的必要性。以奥运会开幕式观众散场为例,介绍了疏散组织方案和道路管控措施,10万人疏散仅用时75min。总结了奥运交通需求管理方案及实施前期的准备工作。方案实施后,削减机动车流量20%,城市日常出行量仅减少10%,对城市日常出行影响较小。最后,介绍了奥运交通风险评估对规划的修正和补充情况。

基于累积前景理论的出行风险分析

将出行者基于累积前景理论的出行成本——累积感知价值(CPV)看作是由路径出行时间成本和到达目的地后的到达时间感知价值共同组成,对累积前景理论(CPT)进行了介绍,同时引入到达时间感知价值(ATPV)概念建立到达时间与出行感知价值之间的联系,以一个中间节点设置可变信息情报板(VMS)的简单平行网络为例,对累积前景理论在出行决策中的运用进行了分析.结果表明,基于累积前景理论的累积感知价值建模方式较好的刻画了不同出行环境下出行选择风险,VMS的设置有利于降低出行风险.

考虑风险规避的出行路径选择行为分析

为探究智能交通系统中考虑风险规避时出行者路径选择行为,针对不同特征出行者多属性路径选择问题,利用累积前景理论描述出行者的风险规避态度,并建立考虑风险规避的出行路径多目标选择决策模型,设计基于指派模型的求解算法,通过实例对模型合理性进行检验.结果表明,出行者的风险规避对路径选择结果具有明显影响,路径选择结果随出行者对于复合阻抗和综合影响权重的不同而变化;考虑风险规避时目标的敏感性强于不考虑风险规避情形,考虑风险规避更贴近路径选择的实际情况.所建模型不仅可以研究智能交通系统中多类型出行者的多属性路径选择问题,还可作为交通流分配和网络设计等交通问题的研究基础.

RBI技术在起重机零部件失效概率计算中的应用

传统的起重机检验多采用定期检测的方法,检测周期不合理,且对高风险设备和关键部件的重视不够。参考承压设备RBI分析方法,建立了桥式起重机零部件失效概率求解的RBI计算模型:重新定义了起重机失效概率计算公式,基于系数修正法建立起重机失效概率计算模型,利用层次分析法计算各因子的权重,最后采用灰色综合评价法计算修正系数。基于风险的起重机零部件失效概率计算模型为建立起重机械科学合理的检测策略提供了基础,对起重机械事故预防与安全评估研究具有借鉴意义。

基于走行时间鲁棒可靠性的随机交通均衡问题

在基于走行时间可靠性的交通均衡问题中,普遍存在假设是引起走行时间变异的O-D(Origin-Destination)需求或路段通行能力的概率分布是精确已知的。然而,现实中这些概率分布很难精确获得.本文放松这个假设而仅要求知道O-D需求的前m阶矩(这里m是和路段费用函数的形式相关的正整数),通过运用最坏风险价值和最坏条件风险价值指标定义鲁棒分位走行时间和鲁棒超过期望走行时间,并证明在一般分布下两种出行时间是等价的.基于此定义,通过整合出行者的感知误差,提出了鲁棒分位随机用户均衡(鲁棒超过期望随机交通均衡)模型,模型被表示为一个变分不等式,并证明了解的存在性,然后运用一种启发式算法求解该模型.数值算例显现了模型在应用上的特性及算法上的有效性.