This paper gives an overview of the Lee Carter method and reiterates the feasibility of using it to construct mortality forecast for the population data. In a first step, the model is fitted in a traditional way and u...This paper gives an overview of the Lee Carter method and reiterates the feasibility of using it to construct mortality forecast for the population data. In a first step, the model is fitted in a traditional way and used to extrapolate forecast of the time-varying mortality index. The observed pattern of the mortality rates shows a different variability at different ages, highlighting that the homoscedasticity hypothesis is quite unrealistic. Thus, in a second step, the paper aims to produce more reliable mortality forecasting, focusing on the errors in the estimation of the model parameters. The robustness of the estimated parameter is analysed throughout an experimental strategy which allows to assess the robustness of the Lee Carter model by inducing the errors to satisfy the homoscedasticity hypothesis. The graphical and numerical results are tested by means of a comparison in terms of prediction accuracy.展开更多
A boundary plasma turbulence code BOUT is presented. The preliminary encour- aging results have been obtained when comparing with probe measurements for a typical Ohmic discharge in HT-7 tokamak. The validation and be...A boundary plasma turbulence code BOUT is presented. The preliminary encour- aging results have been obtained when comparing with probe measurements for a typical Ohmic discharge in HT-7 tokamak. The validation and benchmark of BOUT code and experimental diagnostic tools for fusion boundary plasma turbulence is proposed.展开更多
As one part of the National Highway Network Planning in China, the Qinghai-Tibet Expressway （QTE） from Golmud to Lhasa will be built in the interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （QTP） across about 630 km of permaf...As one part of the National Highway Network Planning in China, the Qinghai-Tibet Expressway （QTE） from Golmud to Lhasa will be built in the interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （QTP） across about 630 km of permafrost lands. Due to the problematic interactions between the engineering foundations and permafrost, the frozen-soil roadbed of the QTE will be subjected to the more intense thermal disturbances due to the wider black surface. The design and construction for long-term thermal and mechanical stability will face more severe challenges than those in ordinary highways and railways in the same region. In order to provide scientific support for cold regions engineering practices, the QTE Experimental Demonstration Project （EDP） was constructed in situ in the vicinity of the Beilu＇he Permafrost Station in the interior of the QTP. In this paper, the anticipated problems of the proposed QTE project are enumerated, and the structures of the test sections for QTE EDP are described. Through numerical simulations, it was found that the heat transfer processes occurring in each specific road structure are significantly different. The heat accumulation in the highway embankment is mainly due to the black bituminous pavement, but in the railway embankment with its gravel surfaces, it mainly comes from the side slopes. As a result, the net heat accumulation of the highway embankment is three times higher than that in the railway. In expressway, the heat accumulation is further increased because of the wider pavement so that significantly more heat will be accumulated in the roadbed beneath the centerline area. Thus, the thermal stability of the fro- zen-soil roadbed and the underlying permafrost of the QTE can be seriously threatened without proper engineering measures protection against thawing. Based on research and practical experiences from the operating Qinghai-Tibet Railway （QTR） and the Qinghai-Tibet Highway （QTH）, combined with the predicted characteristics of heat transfer in an expressway embankment, nine kinds of engineering measures for mitigating the thaw settlement of foundation soils through the cooling the roadbed soils were built and are being tested in the EDP. The design of the monitoring system for the EDP and the observed parameters were also described.展开更多
Japanese IMS-VHT project on the Virtual Heat Treatment tool for monitoring and optimising HT process in relation with the international cooperative programs is briefly introduced. This project motivates to develop vir...Japanese IMS-VHT project on the Virtual Heat Treatment tool for monitoring and optimising HT process in relation with the international cooperative programs is briefly introduced. This project motivates to develop virtual tools for computer to optimize the heat treatment condition and to support decision for HT operation by knowledge based database in addition to process simulation. As one of the activities with the cooperation of the Society of Materials Science, Japan and the Japan Society for Heat Treatment, a benchmark project is undergoing. This includes simulation of carburized quenching process of a cylinder, disc, and ring as well as a helical gear by use of common data of materials properties and cooling characteristics by several available simulation programs. A part of the newly obtained results is presented as an interim report.展开更多
Higher and more requirements on experiments and innovation projects of computer science courses is brought forward to promote the "Double First Class". For these requirements, the cloud-based experiment and ...Higher and more requirements on experiments and innovation projects of computer science courses is brought forward to promote the "Double First Class". For these requirements, the cloud-based experiment and innovation project supporting platform is introduced in this paper. On the one hand, the platform could satisfy the diversified resource requirements of both teachers and students in course experiments and innovation projects. On the other hand, the feature of "construct once and access anywhere" could achieve higher resource utilization rate and lower costs than the traditional "lab-based" experiment mode. The supporting platform has been applied to practice and gains a lot of positive feedbacks.展开更多
文摘This paper gives an overview of the Lee Carter method and reiterates the feasibility of using it to construct mortality forecast for the population data. In a first step, the model is fitted in a traditional way and used to extrapolate forecast of the time-varying mortality index. The observed pattern of the mortality rates shows a different variability at different ages, highlighting that the homoscedasticity hypothesis is quite unrealistic. Thus, in a second step, the paper aims to produce more reliable mortality forecasting, focusing on the errors in the estimation of the model parameters. The robustness of the estimated parameter is analysed throughout an experimental strategy which allows to assess the robustness of the Lee Carter model by inducing the errors to satisfy the homoscedasticity hypothesis. The graphical and numerical results are tested by means of a comparison in terms of prediction accuracy.
基金Work performed under the auspices of the U. S. Department of Energy by University of California Lawrence LivermoreNational Lab
文摘A boundary plasma turbulence code BOUT is presented. The preliminary encour- aging results have been obtained when comparing with probe measurements for a typical Ohmic discharge in HT-7 tokamak. The validation and benchmark of BOUT code and experimental diagnostic tools for fusion boundary plasma turbulence is proposed.
基金The QTE EDP was funded by the Western Project Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-XB2-10)Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40730736)National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (Grant No. 40625004)
文摘As one part of the National Highway Network Planning in China, the Qinghai-Tibet Expressway （QTE） from Golmud to Lhasa will be built in the interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （QTP） across about 630 km of permafrost lands. Due to the problematic interactions between the engineering foundations and permafrost, the frozen-soil roadbed of the QTE will be subjected to the more intense thermal disturbances due to the wider black surface. The design and construction for long-term thermal and mechanical stability will face more severe challenges than those in ordinary highways and railways in the same region. In order to provide scientific support for cold regions engineering practices, the QTE Experimental Demonstration Project （EDP） was constructed in situ in the vicinity of the Beilu＇he Permafrost Station in the interior of the QTP. In this paper, the anticipated problems of the proposed QTE project are enumerated, and the structures of the test sections for QTE EDP are described. Through numerical simulations, it was found that the heat transfer processes occurring in each specific road structure are significantly different. The heat accumulation in the highway embankment is mainly due to the black bituminous pavement, but in the railway embankment with its gravel surfaces, it mainly comes from the side slopes. As a result, the net heat accumulation of the highway embankment is three times higher than that in the railway. In expressway, the heat accumulation is further increased because of the wider pavement so that significantly more heat will be accumulated in the roadbed beneath the centerline area. Thus, the thermal stability of the fro- zen-soil roadbed and the underlying permafrost of the QTE can be seriously threatened without proper engineering measures protection against thawing. Based on research and practical experiences from the operating Qinghai-Tibet Railway （QTR） and the Qinghai-Tibet Highway （QTH）, combined with the predicted characteristics of heat transfer in an expressway embankment, nine kinds of engineering measures for mitigating the thaw settlement of foundation soils through the cooling the roadbed soils were built and are being tested in the EDP. The design of the monitoring system for the EDP and the observed parameters were also described.
文摘Japanese IMS-VHT project on the Virtual Heat Treatment tool for monitoring and optimising HT process in relation with the international cooperative programs is briefly introduced. This project motivates to develop virtual tools for computer to optimize the heat treatment condition and to support decision for HT operation by knowledge based database in addition to process simulation. As one of the activities with the cooperation of the Society of Materials Science, Japan and the Japan Society for Heat Treatment, a benchmark project is undergoing. This includes simulation of carburized quenching process of a cylinder, disc, and ring as well as a helical gear by use of common data of materials properties and cooling characteristics by several available simulation programs. A part of the newly obtained results is presented as an interim report.
基金supported by Study and Practice of Practice Education Integrated Service Architecture and Education Mode based on Cloud,which is one of Education Research and Reform Projects of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications(2015)and the open project of Science and Technology on Communication Networks Laboratory
文摘Higher and more requirements on experiments and innovation projects of computer science courses is brought forward to promote the "Double First Class". For these requirements, the cloud-based experiment and innovation project supporting platform is introduced in this paper. On the one hand, the platform could satisfy the diversified resource requirements of both teachers and students in course experiments and innovation projects. On the other hand, the feature of "construct once and access anywhere" could achieve higher resource utilization rate and lower costs than the traditional "lab-based" experiment mode. The supporting platform has been applied to practice and gains a lot of positive feedbacks.
