Drawing on Dutch disease theory,we assess how the recent housing boom has contributed to a decline in China's manufacturing exports.Using Chinese city and enterprise panel data from 2004 to 2013,our analysis revea...Drawing on Dutch disease theory,we assess how the recent housing boom has contributed to a decline in China's manufacturing exports.Using Chinese city and enterprise panel data from 2004 to 2013,our analysis reveals that Dutch disease indeed exists and that the housing price increase has played a very important role in affecting China's manufacturing exports through two key channels:resource movement effect and spending effect.Specifically,this paper found that:(i)the housing price increase hindered labor flowing into China's manufacturing industry(resource movement efect)and caused higher inflation(spending effect);(ii)the housing boom clearly impeded China's manufacturing exports,especially after the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008;(ii)the impacts of the housing price increase on China's manufacturing exports were heterogenous,and were more significant for labor-intensive manufacturing businesses,businesses that were foreign owned,less R&D intensive,or located in the central and western regions.展开更多
This paper is concentrated on analyzing the CEE （Central and Eastern European） countries housing and lending market development in 2002-2009. These countries experienced real estate boom and bust phases during that ...This paper is concentrated on analyzing the CEE （Central and Eastern European） countries housing and lending market development in 2002-2009. These countries experienced real estate boom and bust phases during that time and the aim of this paper is to understand which of these countries have the greatest potential for housing market recovery. The study has conducted comparable analysis of these countries and their real estate and lending market. The data was collected from central banks, national statistic offices and real estate companies. The results suggest that countries with higher housing debt had stronger real estate booms and the current bust-cycle has caused much steeper decline in prices. This paper attempts to look at the CEE housing markets from the developer＇s or investor＇s point of view and may be useful for banks and other financial institutions which are related to housing market and lending.展开更多
Incorporating asymmetric cost and benefit of supplying excess liquidity into an otherwise standard time inconsistency model this paper offers an explanation of the excess liquidity and housing price booms recently exp...Incorporating asymmetric cost and benefit of supplying excess liquidity into an otherwise standard time inconsistency model this paper offers an explanation of the excess liquidity and housing price booms recently experienced in China. We find that the central bank＇s incentive to stimulate eeonomie growth with excess liquidity fuels real estate prices and accelerates inflation bias. Therefore, the central bank should free itself from the pressure to achieve an economic growth rate higher than the potential level and assign an appropriate weight to the real estate price fluctuations in the central bank＇s objective function, so that the central bank ＂s policy of stimulating economic growth with excess liquidity can be constrained.展开更多
基金supported financially by the Major Program of the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.20ZDA052)and the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.22BJY163).
文摘Drawing on Dutch disease theory,we assess how the recent housing boom has contributed to a decline in China's manufacturing exports.Using Chinese city and enterprise panel data from 2004 to 2013,our analysis reveals that Dutch disease indeed exists and that the housing price increase has played a very important role in affecting China's manufacturing exports through two key channels:resource movement effect and spending effect.Specifically,this paper found that:(i)the housing price increase hindered labor flowing into China's manufacturing industry(resource movement efect)and caused higher inflation(spending effect);(ii)the housing boom clearly impeded China's manufacturing exports,especially after the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008;(ii)the impacts of the housing price increase on China's manufacturing exports were heterogenous,and were more significant for labor-intensive manufacturing businesses,businesses that were foreign owned,less R&D intensive,or located in the central and western regions.
文摘This paper is concentrated on analyzing the CEE （Central and Eastern European） countries housing and lending market development in 2002-2009. These countries experienced real estate boom and bust phases during that time and the aim of this paper is to understand which of these countries have the greatest potential for housing market recovery. The study has conducted comparable analysis of these countries and their real estate and lending market. The data was collected from central banks, national statistic offices and real estate companies. The results suggest that countries with higher housing debt had stronger real estate booms and the current bust-cycle has caused much steeper decline in prices. This paper attempts to look at the CEE housing markets from the developer＇s or investor＇s point of view and may be useful for banks and other financial institutions which are related to housing market and lending.
文摘Incorporating asymmetric cost and benefit of supplying excess liquidity into an otherwise standard time inconsistency model this paper offers an explanation of the excess liquidity and housing price booms recently experienced in China. We find that the central bank＇s incentive to stimulate eeonomie growth with excess liquidity fuels real estate prices and accelerates inflation bias. Therefore, the central bank should free itself from the pressure to achieve an economic growth rate higher than the potential level and assign an appropriate weight to the real estate price fluctuations in the central bank＇s objective function, so that the central bank ＂s policy of stimulating economic growth with excess liquidity can be constrained.
