农民工迁移、户籍制度改革与城乡居民生活差距

本文构建出一个具有城乡二元经济结构的动态随机一般均衡模型,探讨二元经济体系下农民工迁移、户籍制度改革及周期性波动因素如何影响城乡居民生活水平。基于2000—2012年季度数据的贝叶斯估计结果表明,本文模型对实际数据具有很高匹配度,并得到以下研究结论:(1)乡区生产技术进步与宽松型货币政策有利于缩小城乡居民消费与收入差距;(2)城乡居民偏好冲击分别解释了各自消费的大部分波动,城镇居民收入的大部分波动可由城区生产技术冲击所解释,乡村居民收入波动的主要解释因素为劳力迁移成本冲击;(3)若政府调整现行户籍制度以降低农民工迁移成本,不论从长期还是短期而言,都有利于提高城乡居民消费与收入,而且还可以缩小城乡居民生活差距。

中国高速增长的“半城市化”调节模式:布瓦耶和阿瑞吉的比较与补充

法国调节学派代表人物布瓦耶近期对"中国体制"的概括值得关注。他将城乡分割的"半城市化"调节模式视为支撑中国经济高速增长的制度基础,并基于发达工业化国家的经验对这一体制提出批评。这与肯定中国"半无产阶级化"现象的社会历史学派代表人物阿瑞吉的观点形成了对比。就法国调节学派概括"中国体制"的整体性分析框架与社会历史学派分析中国特色发展道路的历史性、民族性视角进行比较与综合,有助于我们准确把握中国高速增长的制度条件和历史背景。鉴于布瓦耶和阿瑞吉所掌握的统计数据和制度细节尚不全面,对"半城市化"历史制度根源的认识存在一定局限性,我们尝试基于具体的统计数据和历史制度背景对他们的观点进行补充,以期在发展的视角下全面准确地认识中国高速增长的"半城市化"调节模式。

The New Generation of Migrant Workers and Legitimacy Crisis of Local Citizenship in China

This paper uses empirical research conducted in Shanghai to answer these questions： What are the differences between the new generation of migrant workers and the previous generation of migrant workers？ What influence do they have on China＇s politics？ Surveys have shown that the new generation of migrant workers put a greater emphasis on personal space and quality of life. They also have a greater awareness of their individual rights. Additionally, they have a stronger desire to assimilate into the city. The ratio of remittances in relation to income among the new generation of migrant workers has decreased signiflcandy while their local spending has increased. Overall, the new migrant workers demonstrate a stronger tendency towards permanent migration. Local citizenship based on the hukou （household registration ） system is facing a crisis of legitimacy. The unrest among the new generation of migrant workers is a mixture of Marx-type labor unrest and Polanyi-type labor unrest, but the unrest is ultimately directed towards the state. The result will be a rise in the politics of citizenship in China.