Objective:This paper aims to study the correlativity between the number of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases and seasonal meteorological factors in Beijing.Methods:Based on theory of Human-Environmental Inter Relatio...Objective:This paper aims to study the correlativity between the number of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases and seasonal meteorological factors in Beijing.Methods:Based on theory of Human-Environmental Inter Relation in Huangdi's Internal Classics,we adopted monthly cases of PTB in Beijing from 2004 to 2011,and established a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model.Using the cross-correlation function (CCF),we then analyzed the correlation between meteorological factors and number of infected patients.The related meteorological factors were subsequently integrated,to establish a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) model,which was used to estimate and verify the number of PTB cases in 2012.Results:In this study,a SARIMA(0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model was established;CCF analysis was used to reveal the correlativity between PTB and precipitation with 1 lag,relative humidity with 1 lag.Then,integrated with relative humidity with 1 lag (β =2.405,95% confidence interval:0.433-4.377),the SARIMAX prediction model was proved to be an accurate approach for predicting local situations of PTB occurrence.Conclusions:The occurrence of PTB is correlated with seasonal meteorological factors.Combining these factors,an exact prediction model can be established,to estimate of the number of PTB infected patients.展开更多
Symmetrical relationships between humans and their environment have been referred to as an extension of symmetries in the human geographical system and have drawn great attention. This paper explored the symmetry betw...Symmetrical relationships between humans and their environment have been referred to as an extension of symmetries in the human geographical system and have drawn great attention. This paper explored the symmetry between physical and human systems through fractal analysis of the road and drainage networks in Wuling mountainous area. We found that both the road and drainage networks reflect weak clustering distributions. The evolution of the road network shared a significant self-organizing composition, while the drainage network showed obvious double fraetal characteristics. The geometric fractal dimension of the road network was larger than that of the drainage network. In addition, when assigned a weight relating to hierarchy or length, neither the road network nor drainage network showed a fractal property. These findings indicated that the fractal evolution of the road network shared certain similarities with fractal distribution of the drainage network. The symmetry between the two systems resulted from an interactive process of destroying symmetry at the lower order and reconstructing symmetry at the higher order. The relationships between the fractal dimensions of the rural-urban road network, the drainage network andthe urban system indicated that the development of this area was to achieve the symmetrical isomorphism of physical-human geographical systems.展开更多
Most serious natural disasters cause fatalities and injuries, and result in infrastructure damage, economic impacts, and social effects. With respect to the nature of impacts, it is important to understand the direct ...Most serious natural disasters cause fatalities and injuries, and result in infrastructure damage, economic impacts, and social effects. With respect to the nature of impacts, it is important to understand the direct and indirect impacts of natural disasters on infrastructure and industries. In this paper, a holistic disaster impact analysis framework is presented to support more understanding of natural disaster events with respect to inter-relation of infrastructure and associated industries. Disaster impact mechanism and inter-relations based on critical function of industries derived from the extensive literature review and case studies. To develop the framework, service factor is chosen to measure the level of inter-relations and proper weights for each inter-relation between infrastructure and associated industries are obtained by surveying experts in the area of disaster mitigation, emergency organizations, and infrastructure management. This paper focuses on the impact analysis of hurricane disaster and the outcome can also be applied to other types of disasters.展开更多
The study of human-environment relationships in mountain areas is important for both theoretical and practical reasons, as many mountain areas suffer similar problems, such as depopulation, unemployment and natural ha...The study of human-environment relationships in mountain areas is important for both theoretical and practical reasons, as many mountain areas suffer similar problems, such as depopulation, unemployment and natural hazards. Medium mountains constitute a special case within mountains, because they are more populated but less attractive as tourist destinations than high mountains. In this context, the Apuseni Mts （Romania） are considered as a ease study. In this paper, we apply GIS-based, quantitative methods to characterize the strength and dynamics of human-environment interactions, taking into consideration some environmental factors （elevation, relative height, slope, river distance, lithology, land cover, natural attractions） as well as historical population and recent tourism data. We found that population density has strong （r2〉0.8） relationships with all relief factors （elevation, relative height, slope, river distance）, and that best-fit functions are nonlinear. We outlined the varying demographic scenarios by elevation zones and interpreted the historically switching sign of population change versus elevation relationship. We demonstrated that lithology also has an impact on the spatial distribution of population, although it is not independent from the relief effect. The land cover of the mainly cultural landscape is very strongly correlated with relief parameters （especially slope）, which suggests good adaptation. We pointed out the dominance of karst objects in the natural tourism potential of the Apuseni Mts and also explored further components of real tourism （spas, heritage, towns）. Finally, we concluded that the environmental settings investigated do in fact constrain the spatial framework of society, but soeio-economic changes in history can be explained from the side of society, which conforms to the theory of cultural possibilism.展开更多
基金This study was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(81574098).
文摘Objective:This paper aims to study the correlativity between the number of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases and seasonal meteorological factors in Beijing.Methods:Based on theory of Human-Environmental Inter Relation in Huangdi's Internal Classics,we adopted monthly cases of PTB in Beijing from 2004 to 2011,and established a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model.Using the cross-correlation function (CCF),we then analyzed the correlation between meteorological factors and number of infected patients.The related meteorological factors were subsequently integrated,to establish a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) model,which was used to estimate and verify the number of PTB cases in 2012.Results:In this study,a SARIMA(0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model was established;CCF analysis was used to reveal the correlativity between PTB and precipitation with 1 lag,relative humidity with 1 lag.Then,integrated with relative humidity with 1 lag (β =2.405,95% confidence interval:0.433-4.377),the SARIMAX prediction model was proved to be an accurate approach for predicting local situations of PTB occurrence.Conclusions:The occurrence of PTB is correlated with seasonal meteorological factors.Combining these factors,an exact prediction model can be established,to estimate of the number of PTB infected patients.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China project (Grant Nos. 41201130, 41101361, and 41371183)
文摘Symmetrical relationships between humans and their environment have been referred to as an extension of symmetries in the human geographical system and have drawn great attention. This paper explored the symmetry between physical and human systems through fractal analysis of the road and drainage networks in Wuling mountainous area. We found that both the road and drainage networks reflect weak clustering distributions. The evolution of the road network shared a significant self-organizing composition, while the drainage network showed obvious double fraetal characteristics. The geometric fractal dimension of the road network was larger than that of the drainage network. In addition, when assigned a weight relating to hierarchy or length, neither the road network nor drainage network showed a fractal property. These findings indicated that the fractal evolution of the road network shared certain similarities with fractal distribution of the drainage network. The symmetry between the two systems resulted from an interactive process of destroying symmetry at the lower order and reconstructing symmetry at the higher order. The relationships between the fractal dimensions of the rural-urban road network, the drainage network andthe urban system indicated that the development of this area was to achieve the symmetrical isomorphism of physical-human geographical systems.
基金Project supported by the National Science Foundation of USA (Grant No.0080209)the Innovation Program of the Education Commission of Shanghai Municipality (Grant No.09YZ172)the Consultant Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering(Grant No.200606)
文摘Most serious natural disasters cause fatalities and injuries, and result in infrastructure damage, economic impacts, and social effects. With respect to the nature of impacts, it is important to understand the direct and indirect impacts of natural disasters on infrastructure and industries. In this paper, a holistic disaster impact analysis framework is presented to support more understanding of natural disaster events with respect to inter-relation of infrastructure and associated industries. Disaster impact mechanism and inter-relations based on critical function of industries derived from the extensive literature review and case studies. To develop the framework, service factor is chosen to measure the level of inter-relations and proper weights for each inter-relation between infrastructure and associated industries are obtained by surveying experts in the area of disaster mitigation, emergency organizations, and infrastructure management. This paper focuses on the impact analysis of hurricane disaster and the outcome can also be applied to other types of disasters.
基金supported by the Hungarian National Science Foundation,OTKA 104811 projectsupported by the János Bolyai Scolarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
文摘The study of human-environment relationships in mountain areas is important for both theoretical and practical reasons, as many mountain areas suffer similar problems, such as depopulation, unemployment and natural hazards. Medium mountains constitute a special case within mountains, because they are more populated but less attractive as tourist destinations than high mountains. In this context, the Apuseni Mts （Romania） are considered as a ease study. In this paper, we apply GIS-based, quantitative methods to characterize the strength and dynamics of human-environment interactions, taking into consideration some environmental factors （elevation, relative height, slope, river distance, lithology, land cover, natural attractions） as well as historical population and recent tourism data. We found that population density has strong （r2〉0.8） relationships with all relief factors （elevation, relative height, slope, river distance）, and that best-fit functions are nonlinear. We outlined the varying demographic scenarios by elevation zones and interpreted the historically switching sign of population change versus elevation relationship. We demonstrated that lithology also has an impact on the spatial distribution of population, although it is not independent from the relief effect. The land cover of the mainly cultural landscape is very strongly correlated with relief parameters （especially slope）, which suggests good adaptation. We pointed out the dominance of karst objects in the natural tourism potential of the Apuseni Mts and also explored further components of real tourism （spas, heritage, towns）. Finally, we concluded that the environmental settings investigated do in fact constrain the spatial framework of society, but soeio-economic changes in history can be explained from the side of society, which conforms to the theory of cultural possibilism.
