The driving factors of runoff changes can be divided into precipitationfactor and non-precipitation factor, and they can also be divided into natural factor and humanactivity factor. In this paper, the ways and method...The driving factors of runoff changes can be divided into precipitationfactor and non-precipitation factor, and they can also be divided into natural factor and humanactivity factor. In this paper, the ways and methods of these driving factors impacting on runoffchanges are analyzed at first, and then according to the relationship between precipitation andrunoff, the analytical method about impacts of precipitation and non-precipitation factors onbasin's natural runoff is derived. The amount and contribution rates of the two factors impacting onnatural runoff between every two adjacent decades during 1956-1998 are calculated in the YellowRiver Basin (YRB). The results show that the amount and contribution rate of the two factorsimpacting on natural runoff are different in different periods and regions. For the YRB, thenon-precipitation impact is preponderant for natural runoff reduction after the 1970s. Finally, bychoosing main factors impacting on the natural runoff, one error back-propagation (BP) artificialneural network (ANN) model has been set up, and the impact of human activities on natural runoffreduction in the YRB is simulated. The result shows that the human activities could cause a 77 x10^8 m^3·a^(-1) reduction of runoff during 1980-1998 according to the climate background of1956-1979.展开更多
文摘The driving factors of runoff changes can be divided into precipitationfactor and non-precipitation factor, and they can also be divided into natural factor and humanactivity factor. In this paper, the ways and methods of these driving factors impacting on runoffchanges are analyzed at first, and then according to the relationship between precipitation andrunoff, the analytical method about impacts of precipitation and non-precipitation factors onbasin's natural runoff is derived. The amount and contribution rates of the two factors impacting onnatural runoff between every two adjacent decades during 1956-1998 are calculated in the YellowRiver Basin (YRB). The results show that the amount and contribution rate of the two factorsimpacting on natural runoff are different in different periods and regions. For the YRB, thenon-precipitation impact is preponderant for natural runoff reduction after the 1970s. Finally, bychoosing main factors impacting on the natural runoff, one error back-propagation (BP) artificialneural network (ANN) model has been set up, and the impact of human activities on natural runoffreduction in the YRB is simulated. The result shows that the human activities could cause a 77 x10^8 m^3·a^(-1) reduction of runoff during 1980-1998 according to the climate background of1956-1979.
