Hybrid model for BOF oxygen blowing time prediction based on oxygen balance mechanism and deep neural network

The amount of oxygen blown into the converter is one of the key parameters for the control of the converter blowing process,which directly affects the tap-to-tap time of converter. In this study, a hybrid model based on oxygen balance mechanism (OBM) and deep neural network (DNN) was established for predicting oxygen blowing time in converter. A three-step method was utilized in the hybrid model. First, the oxygen consumption volume was predicted by the OBM model and DNN model, respectively. Second, a more accurate oxygen consumption volume was obtained by integrating the OBM model and DNN model. Finally, the converter oxygen blowing time was calculated according to the oxygen consumption volume and the oxygen supply intensity of each heat. The proposed hybrid model was verified using the actual data collected from an integrated steel plant in China, and compared with multiple linear regression model, OBM model, and neural network model including extreme learning machine, back propagation neural network, and DNN. The test results indicate that the hybrid model with a network structure of 3 hidden layer layers, 32-16-8 neurons per hidden layer, and 0.1 learning rate has the best prediction accuracy and stronger generalization ability compared with other models. The predicted hit ratio of oxygen consumption volume within the error±300 m^(3)is 96.67%;determination coefficient (R^(2)) and root mean square error (RMSE) are0.6984 and 150.03 m^(3), respectively. The oxygen blow time prediction hit ratio within the error±0.6 min is 89.50%;R2and RMSE are0.9486 and 0.3592 min, respectively. As a result, the proposed model can effectively predict the oxygen consumption volume and oxygen blowing time in the converter.

Prediction of three-dimensional ocean temperature in the South China Sea based on time series gridded data and a dynamic spatiotemporal graph neural network

Ocean temperature is an important physical variable in marine ecosystems,and ocean temperature prediction is an important research objective in ocean-related fields.Currently,one of the commonly used methods for ocean temperature prediction is based on data-driven,but research on this method is mostly limited to the sea surface,with few studies on the prediction of internal ocean temperature.Existing graph neural network-based methods usually use predefined graphs or learned static graphs,which cannot capture the dynamic associations among data.In this study,we propose a novel dynamic spatiotemporal graph neural network(DSTGN)to predict threedimensional ocean temperature(3D-OT),which combines static graph learning and dynamic graph learning to automatically mine two unknown dependencies between sequences based on the original 3D-OT data without prior knowledge.Temporal and spatial dependencies in the time series were then captured using temporal and graph convolutions.We also integrated dynamic graph learning,static graph learning,graph convolution,and temporal convolution into an end-to-end framework for 3D-OT prediction using time-series grid data.In this study,we conducted prediction experiments using high-resolution 3D-OT from the Copernicus global ocean physical reanalysis,with data covering the vertical variation of temperature from the sea surface to 1000 m below the sea surface.We compared five mainstream models that are commonly used for ocean temperature prediction,and the results showed that the method achieved the best prediction results at all prediction scales.

Deep Learning for Financial Time Series Prediction:A State-of-the-Art Review of Standalone and HybridModels

Financial time series prediction,whether for classification or regression,has been a heated research topic over the last decade.While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results,deep learning has largely contributed to the elevation of the prediction performance.Currently,the most up-to-date review of advanced machine learning techniques for financial time series prediction is still lacking,making it challenging for finance domain experts and relevant practitioners to determine which model potentially performs better,what techniques and components are involved,and how themodel can be designed and implemented.This review article provides an overview of techniques,components and frameworks for financial time series prediction,with an emphasis on state-of-the-art deep learning models in the literature from2015 to 2023,including standalonemodels like convolutional neural networks(CNN)that are capable of extracting spatial dependencies within data,and long short-term memory(LSTM)that is designed for handling temporal dependencies;and hybrid models integrating CNN,LSTM,attention mechanism(AM)and other techniques.For illustration and comparison purposes,models proposed in recent studies are mapped to relevant elements of a generalized framework comprised of input,output,feature extraction,prediction,and related processes.Among the state-of-the-artmodels,hybrid models like CNNLSTMand CNN-LSTM-AM in general have been reported superior in performance to stand-alone models like the CNN-only model.Some remaining challenges have been discussed,including non-friendliness for finance domain experts,delayed prediction,domain knowledge negligence,lack of standards,and inability of real-time and highfrequency predictions.The principal contributions of this paper are to provide a one-stop guide for both academia and industry to review,compare and summarize technologies and recent advances in this area,to facilitate smooth and informed implementation,and to highlight future research directions.

Effects of data smoothing and recurrent neural network(RNN)algorithms for real-time forecasting of tunnel boring machine(TBM)performance

Tunnel boring machines(TBMs)have been widely utilised in tunnel construction due to their high efficiency and reliability.Accurately predicting TBM performance can improve project time management,cost control,and risk management.This study aims to use deep learning to develop real-time models for predicting the penetration rate(PR).The models are built using data from the Changsha metro project,and their performances are evaluated using unseen data from the Zhengzhou Metro project.In one-step forecast,the predicted penetration rate follows the trend of the measured penetration rate in both training and testing.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is compared with the recurrent neural network(RNN)model.The results show that univariate models,which only consider historical penetration rate itself,perform better than multivariate models that take into account multiple geological and operational parameters(GEO and OP).Next,an RNN variant combining time series of penetration rate with the last-step geological and operational parameters is developed,and it performs better than other models.A sensitivity analysis shows that the penetration rate is the most important parameter,while other parameters have a smaller impact on time series forecasting.It is also found that smoothed data are easier to predict with high accuracy.Nevertheless,over-simplified data can lose real characteristics in time series.In conclusion,the RNN variant can accurately predict the next-step penetration rate,and data smoothing is crucial in time series forecasting.This study provides practical guidance for TBM performance forecasting in practical engineering.

Deep learning framework for time series classification based on multiple imaging and hybrid quantum neural networks

Time series classification(TSC)has attracted a lot of attention for time series data mining tasks and has been applied in various fields.With the success of deep learning(DL)in computer vision recognition,people are starting to use deep learning to tackle TSC tasks.Quantum neural networks(QNN)have recently demonstrated their superiority over traditional machine learning in methods such as image processing and natural language processing,but research using quantum neural networks to handle TSC tasks has not received enough attention.Therefore,we proposed a learning framework based on multiple imaging and hybrid QNN(MIHQNN)for TSC tasks.We investigate the possibility of converting 1D time series to 2D images and classifying the converted images using hybrid QNN.We explored the differences between MIHQNN based on single time series imaging and MIHQNN based on the fusion of multiple time series imaging.Four quantum circuits were also selected and designed to study the impact of quantum circuits on TSC tasks.We tested our method on several standard datasets and achieved significant results compared to several current TSC methods,demonstrating the effectiveness of MIHQNN.This research highlights the potential of applying quantum computing to TSC and provides the theoretical and experimental background for future research.

Automated Machine Learning Algorithm Using Recurrent Neural Network to Perform Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Long-term time series forecasting stands as a crucial research domain within the realm of automated machine learning(AutoML).At present,forecasting,whether rooted in machine learning or statistical learning,typically relies on expert input and necessitates substantial manual involvement.This manual effort spans model development,feature engineering,hyper-parameter tuning,and the intricate construction of time series models.The complexity of these tasks renders complete automation unfeasible,as they inherently demand human intervention at multiple junctures.To surmount these challenges,this article proposes leveraging Long Short-Term Memory,which is the variant of Recurrent Neural Networks,harnessing memory cells and gating mechanisms to facilitate long-term time series prediction.However,forecasting accuracy by particular neural network and traditional models can degrade significantly,when addressing long-term time-series tasks.Therefore,our research demonstrates that this innovative approach outperforms the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)method in forecasting long-term univariate time series.ARIMA is a high-quality and competitive model in time series prediction,and yet it requires significant preprocessing efforts.Using multiple accuracy metrics,we have evaluated both ARIMA and proposed method on the simulated time-series data and real data in both short and long term.Furthermore,our findings indicate its superiority over alternative network architectures,including Fully Connected Neural Networks,Convolutional Neural Networks,and Nonpooling Convolutional Neural Networks.Our AutoML approach enables non-professional to attain highly accurate and effective time series forecasting,and can be widely applied to various domains,particularly in business and finance.

Multi-dimension and multi-modal rolling mill vibration prediction model based on multi-level network fusion

Mill vibration is a common problem in rolling production,which directly affects the thickness accuracy of the strip and may even lead to strip fracture accidents in serious cases.The existing vibration prediction models do not consider the features contained in the data,resulting in limited improvement of model accuracy.To address these challenges,this paper proposes a multi-dimensional multi-modal cold rolling vibration time series prediction model(MDMMVPM)based on the deep fusion of multi-level networks.In the model,the long-term and short-term modal features of multi-dimensional data are considered,and the appropriate prediction algorithms are selected for different data features.Based on the established prediction model,the effects of tension and rolling force on mill vibration are analyzed.Taking the 5th stand of a cold mill in a steel mill as the research object,the innovative model is applied to predict the mill vibration for the first time.The experimental results show that the correlation coefficient(R^(2))of the model proposed in this paper is 92.5%,and the root-mean-square error(RMSE)is 0.0011,which significantly improves the modeling accuracy compared with the existing models.The proposed model is also suitable for the hot rolling process,which provides a new method for the prediction of strip rolling vibration.

HQNN-SFOP:Hybrid Quantum Neural Networks with Signal Feature Overlay Projection for Drone Detection Using Radar Return Signals-A Simulation

With the wide application of drone technology,there is an increasing demand for the detection of radar return signals from drones.Existing detection methods mainly rely on time-frequency domain feature extraction and classical machine learning algorithms for image recognition.This method suffers from the problem of large dimensionality of image features,which leads to large input data size and noise affecting learning.Therefore,this paper proposes to extract signal time-domain statistical features for radar return signals from drones and reduce the feature dimension from 512×4 to 16 dimensions.However,the downscaled feature data makes the accuracy of traditional machine learning algorithms decrease,so we propose a new hybrid quantum neural network with signal feature overlay projection(HQNN-SFOP),which reduces the dimensionality of the signal by extracting the statistical features in the time domain of the signal,introduces the signal feature overlay projection to enhance the expression ability of quantum computation on the signal features,and introduces the quantum circuits to improve the neural network’s ability to obtain the inline relationship of features,thus improving the accuracy and migration generalization ability of drone detection.In order to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method,we experimented with the method using the MM model that combines the real parameters of five commercial drones and random drones parameters to generate data to simulate a realistic environment.The results show that the method based on statistical features in the time domain of the signal is able to extract features at smaller scales and obtain higher accuracy on a dataset with an SNR of 10 dB.On the time-domain feature data set,HQNNSFOP obtains the highest accuracy compared to other conventional methods.In addition,HQNN-SFOP has good migration generalization ability on five commercial drones and random drones data at different SNR conditions.Our method verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of signal detection methods based on quantum computation and experimentally demonstrates that the advantages of quantum computation for information processing are still valid in the field of signal processing,it provides a highly efficient method for the drone detection using radar return signals.

DIAGNOSTICS OF FATIGUE CRACK IN ULTERIOR PLACES OF LARGER-SCALE OVERLOADED SUPPORTING SHAFT BASED ON TIME SERIES AND NEURAL NETWORKS

To improve the diagnosis accuracy and self-adaptability of fatigue crack in ulterior place of the supporting shaft, time series and neural network are attempted to be applied in research on diag-nosing the fatigue crack’s degree based on analyzing the vibration characteristics of the supporting shaft. By analyzing the characteristic parameter which is easy to be detected from the supporting shaft’s exterior, the time series model parameter which is hypersensitive to the situation of fatigue crack in ulterior place of the supporting shaft is the target input of neural network, and the fatigue crack’s degree value of supporting shaft is the output. The BP network model can be built and net-work can be trained after the structural parameters of network are selected. Furthermore, choosing the other two different group data can test the network. The test result will verify the validity of the BP network model. The result of experiment shows that the method of time series and neural network are effective to diagnose the occurrence and the development of the fatigue crack’s degree in ulterior place of the supporting shaft.

A Hybrid Neural Network and Box-Jenkins Models for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is insufficient forecasting accuracy.The present study proposes a hybrid forecastingmethods to address this need.The proposed method includes three models.The first model is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)statistical model;the second model is a back propagation neural network(BPNN)with adaptive slope and momentum parameters;and the thirdmodel is a hybridization between ARIMA and BPNN(ARIMA/BPNN)and artificial neural networks and ARIMA(ARIMA/ANN)to gain the benefits of linear and nonlinearmodeling.The forecasting models proposed in this study are used to predict the indices of the consumer price index(CPI),and predict the expected number of cancer patients in the Ibb Province in Yemen.Statistical standard measures used to evaluate the proposed method include(i)mean square error,(ii)mean absolute error,(iii)root mean square error,and(iv)mean absolute percentage error.Based on the computational results,the improvement rate of forecasting the CPI dataset was 5%,71%,and 4%for ARIMA/BPNN model,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNN model respectively;while the result for cancer patients’dataset was 7%,200%,and 19%for ARIMA/BPNNmodel,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNNmodel respectively.Therefore,it is obvious that the proposed method reduced the randomness degree,and the alterations affected the time series with data non-linearity.The ARIMA/ANN model outperformed each of its components when it was applied separately in terms of increasing the accuracy of forecasting and decreasing the overall errors of forecasting.

Adaptive Modeling and Forecasting of Time Series by Combining the Methods of Temporal Differences with Neural Networks

This paper discusses the modeling method of time series with neural network. In order to improve the adaptability of direct multi-step prediction models, this paper proposes a method of combining the temporal differences methods with back-propagation algorithm for updating the parameters continuously on the basis of recent data. This method can make the neural network model fit the recent characteristic of the time series as close as possible, therefore improves the prediction accuracy. We built models and made predictions for the sunspot series. The prediction results of adaptive modeling method are better than that of non-adaptive modeling methods.

Modeling and Simulation of Time Series Prediction Based on Dynamic Neural Network

Molding and simulation of time series prediction based on dynamic neural network(NN) are studied. Prediction model for non-linear and time-varying system is proposed based on dynamic Jordan NN. Aiming at the intrinsic defects of back-propagation (BP) algorithm that cannot update network weights incrementally, a hybrid algorithm combining the temporal difference (TD) method with BP algorithm to train Jordan NN is put forward. The proposed method is applied to predict the ash content of clean coal in jigging production real-time and multi-step. A practical example is also given and its application results indicate that the method has better performance than others and also offers a beneficial reference to the prediction of nonlinear time series.

Synchronization of stochastically hybrid coupled neural networks with coupling discrete and distributed time-varying delays

A general model of linearly stochastically coupled identical connected neural networks with hybrid coupling is proposed, which is composed of constant coupling, coupling discrete time-varying delay and coupling distributed timevarying delay. All the coupling terms are subjected to stochastic disturbances described in terms of Brownian motion, which reflects a more realistic dynamical behaviour of coupled systems in practice. Based on a simple adaptive feedback controller and stochastic stability theory, several sufficient criteria are presented to ensure the synchronization of linearly stochastically coupled complex networks with coupling mixed time-varying delays. Finally, numerical simulations illustrated by scale-free complex networks verify the effectiveness of the proposed controllers.

Multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series based on co-evolutionary recurrent neural network

This paper proposes a co-evolutionary recurrent neural network （CERNN） for the multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series, it estimates the proper parameters of phase space reconstruction and optimizes the structure of recurrent neural networks by coevolutionary strategy. The searching space was separated into two subspaces and the individuals are trained in a parallel computational procedure. It can dynamically combine the embedding method with the capability of recurrent neural network to incorporate past experience due to internal recurrence. The effectiveness of CERNN is evaluated by using three benchmark chaotic time series data sets： the Lorenz series, Mackey-Glass series and real-world sun spot series. The simulation results show that CERNN improves the performances of multi-step-prediction of chaotic time series.

Generalized unscented Kalman filtering based radial basis function neural network for the prediction of ground radioactivity time series with missing data

On the assumption that random interruptions in the observation process are modeled by a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables, we firstly generalize two kinds of nonlinear filtering methods with random interruption failures in the observation based on the extended Kalman filtering （EKF） and the unscented Kalman filtering （UKF）, which were shortened as GEKF and CUKF in this paper, respectively. Then the nonlinear filtering model is established by using the radial basis function neural network （RBFNN） prototypes and the network weights as state equation and the output of RBFNN to present the observation equation. Finally, we take the filtering problem under missing observed data as a special case of nonlinear filtering with random intermittent failures by setting each missing data to be zero without needing to pre-estimate the missing data, and use the GEKF-based RBFNN and the GUKF-based RBFNN to predict the ground radioactivity time series with missing data. Experimental results demonstrate that the prediction results of GUKF-based RBFNN accord well with the real ground radioactivity time series while the prediction results of GEKF-based RBFNN are divergent.

Time Series Modeling of River Flow Using Wavelet Neural Networks

A new hybrid model which combines wavelets and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) called wavelet neural network (WNN) model was proposed in the current study and applied for time series modeling of river flow. The time series of daily river flow of the Malaprabha River basin (Karnataka state, India) were analyzed by the WNN model. The observed time series are decomposed into sub-series using discrete wavelet transform and then appropriate sub-series is used as inputs to the neural network for forecasting hydrological variables. The hybrid model (WNN) was compared with the standard ANN and AR models. The WNN model was able to provide a good fit with the observed data, especially the peak values during the testing period. The benchmark results from WNN model applications showed that the hybrid model produced better results in estimating the hydrograph properties than the latter models (ANN and AR).

The application of neural network to the analysis of earthquake precursor chaotic time series

Artificial neural network (NN) is such a model as to imitate the structure and intelligence feature of human brain. It has strong nonlinear mapping function. To introduce NN into the study of earthquake prediction is not only an extension of the application of artificial neural network model but also a new try for precursor observation to serve the earthquake prediction. In this paper, we analyzed the predictability of time series and gave a method of application of artificial neural network in forecasting earthquake precursor chaotic time series. Besides, taking the ground tilt observation of Jiangning and Xuzhou Station, the bulk strain observation of Liyang station as examples, we analyzed and forecasted their time series respectively. It is indicated that the precision of this method can meet the needs of practical task and therefore of great value in the application to the future practical earthquake analysis and prediction.

TIME SERIES NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR HYDROLOGIC FORECASTING

Time series analysis plays an important role in hydrologic forecasting,while the key to this analysis is to establish a proper model.This paper presents a time series neural network model with back propagation procedure for hydrologic forecasting.Free from the disadvantages of previous models,the model can be parallel to operate information flexibly and rapidly.It excels in the ability of nonlinear mapping and can learn and adjust by itself,which gives the model a possibility to describe the complex nonlinear hydrologic process.By using directly a training process based on a set of previous data, the model can forecast the time series of stream flow.Moreover,two practical examples were used to test the performance of the time series neural network model.Results confirm that the model is efficient and feasible.

Times Series Prediction to Basis of a Neural Network Conceived by a Real Genetic Algorithm

Neural network and genetic algorithms are complementary technologies in the design of adaptive intelligent system. Neural network learns from scratch by adjusting the interconnections betweens layers. Genetic algorithms are a popular computing framework that uses principals from natural population genetics to evolve solutions to problems. Various forecasting methods have been developed on the basis of neural network, but accuracy has been matter of concern in these forecasts. In neural network methods forecasted values depend to the choose of neural predictor structure, the number of the input, the lag. To remedy to these problem, in this paper, the authors are investing the applicability of an automatic design of a neural predictor realized by real Genetic Algorithms to predict the future value of a time series. The prediction method is tested by using meteorology time series that are daily and weekly mean temperatures in Melbourne, Australia, 1980-1990.