The Import Trade Forecasting Model Based on PCA: Evidence from Rwanda

A developing country like Rwanda heavily is keen on international trade for several essential goods in the development of an economy. This study investigated the influence of various factors affecting import trade, and use principal component analysis to determine an empirical model for a comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors of import trade of Rwanda using secondary data over the period from 1980-2017. The PCA model showed that Rwanda’s import trade is principally littered with investment fundamental factors, income consumption factors, price factors, inflation factors, and savings factors and the empirical results showed that Rwanda’s import trade is negatively correlated with the investment fundamental and savings factors, the income consumption factors, price factor, and the inflation are positively correlated and therefore the forecast for the period 2018-2025 revealed that the import trade of Rwanda may experience an increase. The implication is that unstable price and currency depreciation cause high income consumption and increased import trade volume. The study advises policy makers on international trade first to pay attention to the accumulation of investment and savings checking if providing support for import trade control and enhance economic security. Second, stabilize the price and manage to keep inflation low and stable. Third, better focus on improving domestic production by not permitting Rwandan currency (Frw) to lose the worth, thus directly forming the necessity for foreign merchandise for investment purposes to increase the level of production exportation, which might have a giant positive impact on saving culture linked to economic growth.

Sources and Flows of Embodied CO_2 Emissions in Import and Export Trade of China

This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project(version 7)database to calculate embodied CO2emissions in bilateral trade between China and other countries(regions)based on input-output methods.The sources and flows of embodied CO2emissions in import and export trade of China are analyzed.Results show that the flows of embodied CO2emissions in export trade are highly concentrated.The main flows to the United States(US)and Japan account for 1/4 and 1/7 of the total CO2emissions in export trade,respectively.Concentrated flows of total exports and small differences in export structure are the main reasons for the highly concentrated export trade.The sources of embodied CO2emissions in import trade have relatively low concentration.Taiwan Province of China,Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China,US,Russia,Republic of Korea,and Japan account for around 7.72%–12.67%of the total embodied CO2emissions in import trade.The relative dispersion of import sources,the impact of the import structure,and the level of production technology in importing countries caused low concentration of CO2emissions in import trade.Overall,the embodied CO2emissions in the export trade of China are higher than those in import trade.As a result,production-based CO2emissions are higher than consumption-based CO2emissions.The difference of 8.96×108t of CO2,which comes mainly from the US,Japan,Germany,and the United Kingdom,accounts for 58.70%of the total difference.Some suggestions,such as improving energy efficiency,alerting high carbon-intensive industries transfer,expanding the market for sharing risks,and prompting the accounting system of consumption-based CO2emissions,are proposed based on the results.

Study on China’s Import Trade and Market in Main Forest Products

The forest products trade from other countries to China is predominantly and tremendously increasing and many dealers, officials and scholars are convinced that this trend will continue. This paper covers 5 topics: (1) Analysis on China’s forest resources; (2) Analysis on the supply and demand factors of forest products in China; (3) The import trade of recent main forest products in China; (4) The market characteristics of forest products in China; (5)The development trends of forest products in China.

Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on Import and Export Trade Pattern of Soybean in Heilongjiang

Under the background of Sino-US trade friction,soybean,as an important variety in the important and export trade of agricultural products,has become a key bargaining chip. After the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the counter list of agricultural products including soybean,the price fluctuations of domestic soybean and related agricultural products are rapidly expanding. Under the background of SinoUS trade friction,taking the soybean-producing areas in Heilongjiang as an example,the impact of Sino-US trade friction on the important and export pattern of soybean in Heilongjiang was explored to provide a certain theoretical basis for the development of soybean industry in Heilongjiang.

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between China's Maize Price and Maize Import and Export Trade

Based on the time series of China’s maize trade and domestic maize price,the article analyzes the relationship between domestic maize price and China’s maize international trade by using empirical methods.The results show that there is a connection between domestic maize prices and China's maize international trade,but the link is not very close.Domestic maize price is the cause of China’s maize international trade change,but its impact is very limited;China's maize international trade also can make some difference on the domestic maize price.Based on the results of research,the article brings three suggestion and expectation to adjust China’s maize international trade and the cost control reasonably in order to stabilize domestic maize price and maize yield,and to protect domestic grain security.

The Concrete Analysis of the Change of Import and Export Trade of Chinese Enterprises Is Based on the Perspective of RMB Exchange Rate

The change of import and export trade of Chinese enterprises actually reflects the appreciation and depreciation of RMB,which are closely related to the total volume of import and export trade of Chinese enterprises and the formulation of corresponding foreign exchange measures.Generally speaking,the rise of the RMB exchange rate means the appreciation of the RMB is conducive to imports,while the decline of the RMB exchange rate means the depreciation of the RMB and the decline of the price of export commodities,so it has a greater price advantage and is conducive to exports.Chinese enterprises should correctly grasp the rise and fall of RMB exchange rate and carry out import and export trade reasonably when developing abroad.

China’s alfalfa market and imports: Development, trends, and potential impacts of the U.S.-China trade dispute and retaliations

This study examines the development and trends of China’s alfalfa market and imports, identifies key factors for the rapid increase in China’s alfalfa imports, and discusses potential impacts of the U.S.-China trade dispute and retaliations on the alfalfa markets and trade in both nations. China’s rapid transition toward larger-scale commercial dairy production, with enhanced feed and cost management as well as quality and safety control, and its limited resources for high-quality alfalfa production are key factors for the dramatic increase in its alfalfa imports, from 19 601 metric tons in 2008 to 1.38 million metric tons(mmt) in 2018. While the United States dominated China’s alfalfa imports with an average share of 97.01% from 2007 to 2017, the share dropped to 83.76% in 2018 and 63.28% in January 2019 due to the trade dispute and retaliations started in 2018. China will likely remain a large importer of alfalfa because of both its growing demand and the comparative advantages of imported alfalfa in quality and price, but the imports from the United States will be highly affected by the ongoing trade dispute and negotiations. China is also expected to make more efforts to reduce its dependence on U.S. alfalfa through increased investment in domestic alfalfa production and identification of alternative sources of alfalfa and other hay imports.

NEW REGULATIONS OF CHECKING AND WRITING-OFF FOREIGN EXCHANGE PAYMENT FOR TRADE IMPORT

As from March 1,the State Administration of Exchange Con-trol will implement a new "Provisional Regulations of Checking,Writing-off and Supervising Foreign Exchange Payment for TradeImport".This is an important measure of reforming China’s for-eign exchange system, and is an afterwards supervising measure ofguaranteeing orderly proceeding of toreign exchange payment fortrade import after the exchange of regular items.One of the purpose of carrying out the new regulations is toform an afterwards supervising mechanism for foreign exchangeimport payment of regular items which guarantees the authenticityof foreign exchange import payment and orderly proceeding theexchange of Renminbi regular items;secondly,through examiningand verifying documents of foreign exchange import payment,veri-

Import and Export Quality Guaranteed for the Steady Development of Foreign Trade

Under the good situation of the reform and opening to the outside world, the rapid development of foreign economic and trade has resulted in enhancing the inspection work of import and export commodities in China. The commodity inspection organs at all level adhere to the work policy of guaranteeing quality and offering better service, making import and export commodity quality as their central task. They strictly implement national laws and regulations to serve commodity inspection and management, thus achieving great success.

Water pollution footprints induced by industrial import and export in China

With the rapid development of foreign trade in China, industrial import and export has been an absolute subject in recent years. The huge trade surplus of import and export trade of industrial products brings not only high profits, but also pollution costs as well. Based on the concept of water pollution footprints(WPFs), this study applies the input-output method and calculates pollutant-producing coefficients of 20 major industrial sectors in China and investigates the WPFs caused by the import and export trades of these industrial sectors. The research results show that WPF resulting from exports exceeds that of imports from 2011 to 2015 in China. The net inflow of pollution footprint is mainly from paper mills, printing and stationery manufacturing, and textile industry; whereas a great number of WPFs are transferred to other countries by these sectors,such as metal mining and dressing industry and oil and natural gas exploitation industry.

Influence of International Trade on the Urbanization in the Pearl River Delta

The Pearl River Delta is a typical representative of China s coastal economic belt and one of the most active regions for international trade.It has important reference value for the urbanization of other coastal economic regions in China to study the impact of international trade on the urbanization of the Pearl River Delta.This paper constructs the theoretical model of the three factors of export trade,import trade and industrial scale affecting the urbanization of the Pearl River Delta.It is empirically found that the international trade has positive effects on the total effect of urbanization in which export trade and import intermediate product trade have a positive effect on urbanization,and import trade and export intermediate product trade have a negative effect on urbanization.

基于农产品进出口贸易视角的农业机械化发展研究

为推进全程全面绿色高效农业机械化发展,基于农产品进出口贸易的视角分析农业机械化存在的短板弱项问题。目前我国农业存在贸易逆差逐年增加、主要农产品贸易逆差扩大、劳动密集型农产品比较优势逐渐消失、主要农产品自给率较低等发展现状。在农业机械化方面,小农经济及二元经济结构现状制约着适度规模经营的发展进度,农业规模化种植的生产效益还未充分体现;全程全面高质高量农业机械还不充分;全程农业机械化种植农艺技术推广应用还需加强。农业机械化发展应立足于保障粮食安全与提高农业经营主体经济效益的基本定位,关键在于提高农产品生产效率,改善农产品质量,提高农产品国际竞争力。基于上述分析,提出推进适度规模经营、推动短板弱项农业装备创新发展、优化农业机械化支持政策、推进先进适用农艺技术推广应用、强化农产品初加工装备研发及推广等发展建议。

疫情背景下中国蔬菜进出口贸易变化分析及对策

通过分析我国2020—2022年的蔬菜进出口数据发现,我国蔬菜出口额稳步增长,年均增长了9.13%,2021年蔬菜出口量受疫情影响稍有下降,2022年疫情形势缓和后有所回涨;进口贸易中进口额和进口量先升后降,蔬菜进口贸易的升降与疫情相关。出口市场中,我国蔬菜出口量超10万t的支柱市场的出口量受新冠疫情影响较大;出口产品中,优势产品集中度明显,辅助产品占比持续较小,其中鲜冷冻蔬菜和加工保藏蔬菜出口量止降回涨,干蔬菜和蔬菜种子稳步发展。优势进口市场数量减少,进口量占比持续下降,优势进口蔬菜产品变化较大,进口量集中度明显下降。另外,3年来我国蔬菜进出口均价有所上涨,其中加工保藏蔬菜进出口均价持续上涨,其他品类皆有波动。提高农产品在世界市场上的国际竞争力,促进农业现代化发展,是我国在后疫情时代中拓展蔬菜对外贸易市场、巩固我国主要的蔬菜进口市场的重要方法之一。

长三角地区数字经济高质量发展效应——基于进口贸易的视角

文章基于2012—2021年长三角地区41个城市的面板数据,通过构建数字经济与经济高质量发展综合评价指标体系,实证分析了数字经济促进经济高质量发展的效应及作用机制,并进一步构建空间杜宾模型研究其空间溢出效应。结果表明:数字经济对经济高质量发展有显著正向促进作用,且这种作用具有区域异质性,这一结论在稳健性检验中通过替换被解释变量、调整样本期以及将“宽带中国”政策试点作为准自然实验后依然成立;机制检验显示,进口贸易是数字经济助力经济高质量发展的重要机制;空间杜宾模型研究发现,数字经济空间效应显著,其可以通过空间溢出效应推动经济高质量发展。

Economic Influencing Factors of Trade Volume Between China and RCEP Member States

This paper examines the impact of key economic factors on trade volumes between China and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)member states.Studies have shown that gross domestic products(GDP),exchange rate,and inflation have an impact on China’s import and export trade volume with RCEP member states.China’s export trade volume to RCEP member states is deeply affected by China’s GDP,but the import trade volume depends on China’s domestic demand and market.The impact of exchange rates on import and export trade volumes varies from country to country.China’s export volume to RCEP member states is generally more affected by the consumption level of its residents than the consumption level of Chinese residents.

RCEP协定下跨境电商对贸易影响的时间差异性研究

为了拓宽双循环渠道,打开外循环新思路,以中国与RCEP成员国在2010年至2021年间进出口面板数据结合中国跨境电商交易额建立VAR模型,研究跨境电子商务发展对我国进出口贸易的动态影响。结果表明,在长期,跨境电商的发展使得发展中国家与我国双边贸易弹性系数高于发达国家,跨境电商的发展有利于我国同发展中国家进行贸易往来;在短期,跨境电商的发展对中国与韩国等部分国家的进出口存在逐渐增强的正向影响;跨境电商的发展对我国与多国贸易存在双向动态交互关系。

双循环格局下贸易便利化对进出口贸易的影响--以中日贸易为例

贸易便利化作为一种综合性制度安排,能有效提升我国对外贸易的质量,在国内因素和国际因素发生显著性变化的当下,是挖掘新贸易增长动力的重要手段。本研究对进出口贸易和贸易便利化相关文献进行了回顾,分析了中日贸易便利化的现状,并通过基础设施、商业环境、制度环境和金融环境四个层面分析贸易便利化对中日贸易的影响。研究结果表明,中日贸易便利化对中日贸易发展存在显著的正向促进作用,同时贸易便利化对中日贸易的影响作用受行业、地域等不同因素的影响。为了进一步推动中日贸易提质增效,中国要在推进基础设施建设的基础上,加快制度环境的构建,利用好RCEP这一中日间首个自贸协定的签订契机来提升中日贸易便利化水平,维护中日之间的供应链体系,提升区域经济合作水平。

2023年中药材及饮片进出口形势分析及展望

全面分析2023年中药材及饮片进出口的详细情况,包括主要市场、主要产品及进出口区域,数据显示中药材及饮片产业进出口保持了较强活力,全年进出口取得不错成绩,中药材及饮片进口额的提升带来贸易顺差逐渐收窄的效果,得出“充分利用海外植物资源补充国内需求已经成为与海外中药材产业互动的有效路径”这一结论。未来,中药材及饮片产业应当积极扩大互动的“朋友圈”,不断提升产品质量和管理水平,“走出去”的同时更多地“引进来”,努力打造本土化产业链,推动中药材及饮片产业高质量发展。

中国奶酪市场引力效应与伙伴国贸易前景——以中欧为例

在世界未有之大变局下,奶酪贸易不确定性加剧,严重威胁中国奶酪供需平衡。本文在构建随机前沿引力模型与显性竞争优势指数的基础上,预测中欧奶酪贸易前景。研究结果表明,中欧奶酪贸易效率分布不均,不同国家贸易前景存在较大差异。随机前沿引力模型结果显示:双方人口规模、人均GDP促进中欧奶酪贸易,但双方之间的距离阻碍中欧奶酪贸易;贸易伙伴国政府支出、商业自由度、投资自由度等促进贸易效率,但贸易伙伴国政府诚信、税收负担、贸易自由度和生产者价格对贸易效率有阻碍作用。为了提高中欧奶酪贸易效率,中国应对不同“贸易前景”性质的国家采取异质性进口策略,构筑通达、互联互通的贸易环境、打造自由的营商制度环境,促进中欧奶酪贸易效率,保障中国奶酪贸易安全。