China has experienced dramatic changes in food consumption patterns over the last three decades. However, there are different opinions regarding the future trends in consumption. By adopting the well-developed partial...China has experienced dramatic changes in food consumption patterns over the last three decades. However, there are different opinions regarding the future trends in consumption. By adopting the well-developed partial equilibrium model-China Agricultural Policy Simulation Model(CAPSi M), the demand for livestock products and the main feed crops over 2011–2030 is predicted and analyzed. It is found that China's per capita consumption of livestock products will continue to rise during this period, even though its growth rate will slow down gradually. Meanwhile, the expansion of livestock production will pose great challenges for feed supply in China. More accurately, China will be confronted with feed security rather than grain security in the future.展开更多
There is an increasing demand for feed as the industrialization of hog production in China. Land scarcity limits China's ability to continue increasing its hog production without feed imports, particularly soybean, a...There is an increasing demand for feed as the industrialization of hog production in China. Land scarcity limits China's ability to continue increasing its hog production without feed imports, particularly soybean, and the feed markets are increasingly integrated into the global market. This study performs an analysis of price transmission between the hog price in China and feed prices, specifically domestic maize price and international soybean price, from January 2000 to April 2014. We identified a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the three markets. However, further analyses show that there is no significant Granger causality between hog and feed market, and the long-run equilibrium partially results from Granger causality between the international soybean market and domestic maize market. This suggests that the domestic hog market has been distorted by different policies. The results also indicate that the efficiency of price transmission is very low and it takes about 11 months to correct one-half of any long-run disequilibrium for the hog market in China. Therefore, to stabilize hog price in China, only market intervention to regulate the maize and soybean markets would be insufficient and comprehensive measures need to be taken into account such as hog production modernization, agricultural insurance, epidemic surveillance etc.展开更多
With the support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the'Strategic Priority Research Program'of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a collaborative study by the research groups led by Professor...With the support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the'Strategic Priority Research Program'of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a collaborative study by the research groups led by Professors Tian Zhixi(田志喜),Wang Guodong(王国栋),and Zhu Baoge(朱保葛)from the展开更多
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71373255)the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences(2012RC102)the National Maize Industrial Technical System,China(nycytx-02)
文摘China has experienced dramatic changes in food consumption patterns over the last three decades. However, there are different opinions regarding the future trends in consumption. By adopting the well-developed partial equilibrium model-China Agricultural Policy Simulation Model(CAPSi M), the demand for livestock products and the main feed crops over 2011–2030 is predicted and analyzed. It is found that China's per capita consumption of livestock products will continue to rise during this period, even though its growth rate will slow down gradually. Meanwhile, the expansion of livestock production will pose great challenges for feed supply in China. More accurately, China will be confronted with feed security rather than grain security in the future.
基金the sponsorship of German Research Foundation(RTG1666)A Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD),Chinathe National Natural Science Foundation of China(71173110)
文摘There is an increasing demand for feed as the industrialization of hog production in China. Land scarcity limits China's ability to continue increasing its hog production without feed imports, particularly soybean, and the feed markets are increasingly integrated into the global market. This study performs an analysis of price transmission between the hog price in China and feed prices, specifically domestic maize price and international soybean price, from January 2000 to April 2014. We identified a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the three markets. However, further analyses show that there is no significant Granger causality between hog and feed market, and the long-run equilibrium partially results from Granger causality between the international soybean market and domestic maize market. This suggests that the domestic hog market has been distorted by different policies. The results also indicate that the efficiency of price transmission is very low and it takes about 11 months to correct one-half of any long-run disequilibrium for the hog market in China. Therefore, to stabilize hog price in China, only market intervention to regulate the maize and soybean markets would be insufficient and comprehensive measures need to be taken into account such as hog production modernization, agricultural insurance, epidemic surveillance etc.
文摘With the support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the'Strategic Priority Research Program'of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a collaborative study by the research groups led by Professors Tian Zhixi(田志喜),Wang Guodong(王国栋),and Zhu Baoge(朱保葛)from the