Ingredients-based Methodology and Fuzzy Logic Combined Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall Short-Range Forecasting:An Improved Scheme

Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 mm.SHR is one of the most common convective weather phenomena that can cause severe damage.Short-range forecasting of SHR is an important part of operational severe weather prediction.In the present study,an improved objective SHR forecasting scheme was developed by adopting the ingredients-based methodology and using the fuzzy logic approach.The 1.0°×1.0°National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)final analysis data and the ordinary rainfall(0.1-19.9 mm h-1)and SHR observational data from 411 stations were used in the improved scheme.The best lifted index,the total precipitable water,the 925 hPa specific humidity(Q 925),and the 925 hPa divergence(DIV 925)were selected as predictors based on objective analysis.Continuously distributed membership functions of predictors were obtained based on relative frequency analysis.The weights of predictors were also objectively determined.Experiments with a typhoon SHR case and a spring SHR case show that the main possible areas could be captured by the improved scheme.Verification of SHR forecasts within 96 hours with NCEP global forecasts 1.0°×1.0°data initiated at 08:00 Beijing Time during the warm seasons in 2015 show the results were improved from both deterministic and probabilistic perspectives.This study provides an objectively feasible choice for short-range guidance forecasts of SHR.The scheme can be applied to other convective phenomena.

Improved Boussinesq方程初边值问题解的数值研究

给出Improved Boussinesq方程的隐式有限差分格式,讨论格式的精度和稳定性.给出不同的初边值条件,由数值试验结果看出IBq方程数值解的变化及在一定条件下数值解的爆破现象.

An Improved Splitting Method

In this paper, an improved splitting method, based on the completely square-conservative explicit difference schemes, is established. Not only can the time-direction precision of this method be higher than that of the traditional splitting methods but also can the physical feature of mutual dependence of the fast and the slow stages that are calculated separately and splittingly be kept as well. Moreover, the method owns an universality, it can be generalized to other square-conservative difference schemes, such as the implicit and complete ones and the explicit and instantaneous ones. Good time benefits can be acquired when it is applied in the numerical simulations of the monthly mean currents of the South China Sea.

Stability analysis of slope in strain-softening soils using local arc-length solution scheme

Soils with strain-softening behavior — manifesting as a reduction of strength with increasing plastic strain — are commonly found in the natural environment. For slopes in these soils,a progressive failure mechanism can occur due to a reduction of strength with increasing strain. Finite element method based numerical approaches have been widely performed for simulating such failure mechanism,owning to their ability for tracing the formation and development of the localized shear strain. However,the reliability of the currently used approaches are often affected by poor convergence or significant mesh-dependency,and their applicability is limited by the use of complicated soil models. This paper aims to overcome these limitations by developing a finite element approach using a local arc-length controlled iterative algorithm as the solution strategy. In the proposed finite element approach,the soils are simulated with an elastoplastic constitutive model in conjunction with the Mohr-Coulomb yield function. The strain-softening behavior is represented by a piece-wise linearrelationship between the Mohr-Coulomb strength parameters and the deviatoric plastic strain. To assess the reliability of the proposed finite element approach,comparisons of the numerical solutions obtained by different finite element methods and meshes with various qualities are presented. Moreover,a landslide triggered by excavation in a real expressway construction project is analyzed by the presented finite element approach to demonstrate its applicability for practical engineering problems.

OSH star enterprise pilot scheme——a partnership approach to improve the safety performance of construction industry in Hong Kong SAR

Background: The Occupational Safety and Health Council(OSHC) is committed to improve the safety performance of the high risk construction industry.In the past three years,about 40% of the fatal accidents in the construction industry were related to Renovation,Maintenance,Alteration and Addition(RMAA).Due to the poor safety record,some of the RMAA contractors have difficulty in obtaining the Employees' Compensation Insurance(ECI) cover in the market,or if they could obtain the ECI,the premium rate would be exceedingly high.In view of this,the OSHC,the Labour Department jointly launched"OSH Star Enterprise-Pilot Scheme on Safety Accreditation for the RMAA Industry",which prompts the industry to take practicable safety measures to improve the safety of working environment and reduce occupational injuries.The program also helps the stakeholders and insurers to identify safety-conscious contractors and thereby provide them with a favourable premium rate under the Employees' Compensation Insurance Residual Scheme(ECIRS).Objectives: The OSHC launches the Pilot Scheme to improve the safety performance of the RMAA industry through providing safety training,subsidizing enterprise to purchase safety equipment and providing safety audit.We also use financial incentive to encourage RMAA enterprises to join the Pilot Scheme-for those who are accredited as "OSH Star Enterprise"could receive a premium discount from the ERIRS when obtaining the ECI.The scheme also differentiates those safety-conscious and law-abiding enterprises from the poor performers,which helps the industry and public identifying the RMAA contractors who pay attention to work safety.Methods: The Pilot Scheme targets RMAA enterprises that employ less than 50 employees in Hong Kong.A three-pronged approach is used to improve the safety performance of the RMAA industry: the Pilot Scheme provides(1) financial support for the RMAA contractors to buy a transportable temporary anchor device and full body safety harness and its anchor system;(2) safety training on RMAA work safety and safety & health supervisor course;and(3) safety audit.Results: Enterprises that successfully pass the safety audit and satisfied the Scheme requirements will be accredited as"OSH Star Enterprise",which will be valid for two years.These enterprises can also be upgraded to"OSH Gold Star Enterprise"based on their continuous improvement in safety performance.OSHC will set up a register of OSH-accredited enterprises in RMAA works for reference of the public to facilitate their choosing of accredited contractors.The Employees' Compensation Insurance Residual Scheme Bureau will provide privileged premium rate for enterprises with OSH accreditation."OSH Star Enterprise"could enjoy 40% discounts when joining their insurance scheme.For example,a skilled worker's annual premium can be reduced by about HK $ 36,000.While,the "OSH Gold Star Enterprise"could enjoy 50% discounts when joining their insurance scheme,which means a skilled worker's annual premium can be reduced up to HK $ 45,000.Achievements: This Pilot Scheme offers practical assistance as well as attractive financial incentives for the RMAA industry to improve their safety performance.The Employees'Compensation Insurance Residual Scheme provides premium discounts for enterprises that have a good safety record.It provides incentive for RMAA contractors to actively participate in the Pilot Scheme.The Scheme demonstrates that by providing a safe working environment and appropriate personal protective equipment to workers,the enterprise not only helps to reduce the accident rate of the industry but also receive an economic return.The Pilot Scheme bridges stakeholders of RMAA industry,the government and the insurance industry creating an "all-win"situation.This partnership approach to prevent injuries and accidents in the construction industry could be an effective model for other industries.

Discussion on the Improvement of Technical Safety Scheme Compilation for Hazardous and Ultrahazardous Projects

This paper reviews the summary and analysis of special technical safety schemes for hazardous and ultrahazardous activities,supported by housing scaffolding,installation,and dismantling of outer wall attached tower crane,deep foundation pit with supporting structure,municipal bridge box girder formwork support,as well as grooved Larsen steel sheet pile,which are commonly seen in recent years,so as to enhance the pertinence,rationality,and economy of the special program to strengthen safety.

广义Improved KdV方程的守恒差分算法及其收敛性分析

对广义Improved KdV方程的初边值问题进行了数值研究,提出了一个在空间层带有加权系数的两层非线性有限差分格式,该格式合理地模拟了方程本身具有的两个守恒律,并在其差分解的先验估计的基础上利用能量方法分析了该格式的二阶收敛性与无条件稳定性.

基于改进蚁群算法的外卖配送路径规划研究

从外卖配送员角度出发提出一种改进蚁群算法(Improved Ant Colony Optimization,IACO),在此基础上进行外卖配送路径规划研究.首先通过蚁群算法(Ant Colony Optimization,ACO)求解得到初始规划路径,然后通过大规模邻域搜索算法(Large Neighborhood Search,LNS)优化初始规划路径,通过将ACO和LNS算法结合,提高求解质量.为了验证方法的有效性,对外卖配送过程进行仿真,并且选用不同订单数量场景进行对照分析.根据最优配送方案路线图和目标罚函数的最优值可以得出,IACO算法是有效的,且可以提高外卖配送员外卖配送的效率.IACO算法不但能够提升配送的智能化水平,还从外卖配送员的角度提出一种更为人性化的配送方法,支持网络互联外卖平台派送系统的可持续化发展.

高等教育国家级教学成果奖励制度辨析

高等教育国家级教学成果奖励制度自建立以来,取得显著成效。然而,人们对高等教育教学成果内涵、特征和教学成果培育过程的理解存在偏差,滋生了过于追逐热点、协同创新不足、失衡问题显著、宣传推广不到位等问题,存在重申报文本、轻成果内容的现象。这种现象与教学成果奖励制度的宗旨方枘圆凿。本文基于教学成果奖励制度的基本精神,主张在培育教学成果奖的过程中,准确把握教学成果奖的内涵与特征,避免表层现象和同质现象,注重反思、关注合作、优化氛围和强化激励,形成自下而上的、由重申报转向重培育的思路打造教学成果。在教学成果奖的遴选过程中,评审者应当尊重教学成果奖的生成规律,差异化倾斜分配教学成果奖项,鼓励高校分类发展。在此基础上,教学成果奖励制度的相关主体应当坚守教学成果奖励制度的宗旨,强化教学成果奖项的激励效应,持续优化教学成果奖励制度的实践。

基于密切值决策方法的伊阿铁路走向规划研究

铁路线路方案比选是复杂的多目标决策问题,科学合理的开展线路方案比选对合理确定线路走向极其重要。采用改进密切值决策方法作为铁路线路方案比选的理论支撑,选取建筑长度、桥隧总长、伊阿铁路投资、路网中区域3条铁路的总投资、覆盖经济据点、运量吸引及路网布局等7个因子作为评价指标,利用层次分析法计算评价因子的权重,引入欧氏距离概念得到各方案与最优点和最劣点的“距离”,并计算相应的密切值,进而对线路方案排序择优。以新建伊宁至阿克苏铁路线路走向方案比选为例,结合上述理论方法进行实例研究。研究表明,采用层次分析法计算评价因子权重,采用改进密切值决策方法对方案进行排序择优具有逻辑严谨、形象客观等特点,该方法是适用于铁路线路方案比选的理论方法。

基于云模型的水光互补清洁能源基地容量配置方案优选

为优选水光互补清洁能源基地容量配置方案,从安全性、环保性、经济性、技术性4个方面选取14个指标构建了综合评价指标体系,采用改进云模型方法对容量配置方案进行评价。改进云模型方法以基于层次分析法改进的云模型求解主观权重,以熵权法求解客观权重,组合赋权得到指标权重,再利用条件云发生器计算各指标的隶属度,最后根据级别特征值法计算容量方案等级评分,确定最优方案。将该方法应用于我国西南某清洁能源基地水光互补系统容量配置方案的优选,优选结果与集对分析法优选结果和实际选择方案均相符,证明了该方法的有效性与适用性。

乙二胺四乙酸铁钠补铁剂制备实验改进

本项目将乙二胺四乙酸铁钠(NaFeEDTA)补铁剂制备实验项目进行了改进,将理论知识与实际生产紧密衔接,依据药物制备工艺流程,设置集方案设计、药物制备、结构鉴定、纯度分析等模块于一体的全链条实验内容,将实验项目由验证性实验转变为综合性、设计性实验,引导学生结合制药工艺流程中所涉及到的质量控制、安全生产、环境保护等因素设计实验方案。本实验项目可结合多条专利路线,能激发学生探究兴趣,促进学生自主探究,培养学生方案设计和创新思辨能力,提升学生解决实际问题能力和科学素养,增强专业自信。

轮辐式索承网格屋盖钢结构单道胎架施工技术

泰安体育场作为山东省泰安市的新地标,其钢结构屋盖采用轮辐式索承网格结构,通过68榀径向索和1道中央环索形成张拉结构体系,最大悬挑跨度为45 m。通过数值分析对施工过程进行了精细化稳定性分析,针对不规则构件吊装的工程技术难点,进行了吊装方案的设计与优化;考虑到成本控制与施工周期,极具创新性地采用了径向单道胎架作为屋盖施工过程中的临时支撑,结合工程实际情况设计了胎架转换结构,并对单道胎架整体在多种可能的荷载组合作用下进行验算与校核。通过对体育场屋盖施工全过程的模拟以及对安装过程中的重难点进行优化分析,为现场施工的安全顺利开展提供了技术保障,可为其他类似采用单道胎架施工方法的工程提供施工方案设计的新思路。

顾及环境敏感特征的铁路线路方案优选方法研究

为合理地解决环境敏感区铁路线路方案综合优选问题,研究顾及环境敏感特征的铁路线路方案优选方法 .首先,基于文献调研和环境敏感区特征探析,分析总结影响线路方案的因素,构建涵盖4大方面18项指标的顾及环境敏感特征的铁路线路方案优选指标体系.其次,在专家经验主观赋权和工程信息客观赋权的基础上,运用灰色关联分析理论进行组合赋权.然后,结合改进优劣解距离法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution, TOPSIS)确定各线路方案的相对贴近度,进而实现线路方案优选.最后,以新建铁路西宁至成都线合作至郎木寺段线路方案选择为例进行优选方法验证.研究结果表明:该区段线路的4个备选方案的相对贴近度依次为0.527 9,0.523 6,0.508 7,0.522 7,方案一的相对贴近度最大为最优方案,基于本方法的优选结果与实际专家论证结果一致;与传统TOPSIS比较,基于改进TOPSIS的运算结果避免了计算结果受单方面优势指标影响的弊端,在运算过程中将线路方案涉及的极端优劣指标进行综合权衡考量,得到的运算结果更贴近实际情况.研究成果可为未来环境敏感区线路方案优选问题提供一种新的优选思路.

基于改进灰靶的山区隧道施工场地布置方案优选

为提高山区隧道施工场地布置方案决策的准确性,以牛栾村隧道六种施工场地布置方案为例,提出了基于改进灰靶的方案优选模型。首先,通过分析场地布置方案影响因素,构建了以方案可行性、方案经济性、环境影响和社会效益影响为核心的评价指标体系;其次,采用云模型将定性指标定量描述,并运用CRITIC(criteria importance though intercriteria correlation)确定指标权重;最后以灰色关联差异信息值为基础,结合欧几里得理论计算修正的加权靶心距,通过对比靶心距实现方案优选,并采用单因素轮换法(one-at-a-time,OAT)进行了指标敏感性分析。结果表明:最优方案的加权靶心距为0.610,评选出的方案与实际一致,并分析出“地形地貌改变”为对方案评选影响最大的指标。可见,该方法呈现了各方案的优劣,使山区隧道施工场地布置方案评选更科学、合理。

天气预报模型WRF中复杂Stencil性能优化

天气研究与预报模式(WRF)是一种应用广泛的中尺度数值天气预报系统,在大气研究和业务预报领域发挥着重要作用。Stencil计算是科学工程应用中一类常见的嵌套循环计算模式,WRF中对大气动力学和热力学方程的数值求解引出了大量空间网格上的复杂Stencil计算,存在多维度、多变量、物理模型边界特殊性、物理和动力学过程的复杂性等模型特征。文中深入剖析了WRF中典型的Stencil计算模式,识别抽象出典型Stencil循环中存在的“中间变量”概念,围绕其设计实现了3种优化方案,即中间变量计算合并、中间变量降维存储以及中间变量提取,有效提高了数据局部性,改善了数据重用率和空间复用率,降低了冗余计算和访存开销。结果表明,经优化方案重构的WRF 4.2典型Stencil热点函数在Intel CPU和Hygon CPU上均可获得良好的性能加速,最高加速比达21.3%和17.8%。

一种新开发的ANCF缆索单元

为精确模拟系浮系统中系留缆索的动力学行为,应用绝对节点坐标公式(absolute nodal coordinate formulation,ANCF),开发一种新的ANCF缆索单元。该单元考虑了缆索的层级数目、各层材料的力学性能,并通过子域划分来更好地适应材料的层间差异。其中,利用Kelvin-Voigt模型来解释内芯层的黏弹性性质,而将改进后的Yeoh模型应用于护套层当中以更好地契合材料的超弹性性能。此外,设计一种具有隐式效果的差分格式对动力学微分方程组进行数值求解。最后,通过一系列静力学与动力学数值计算证明单元的精度与收敛特性,并对比几种应用不同超弹性模型的ANCF单元,证实应用改进的Yeoh模型的ANCF单元的合理性与优越性。

基于数值模拟的平原河网水质改善精准化引水方案研究

为探究引水工程对杭嘉湖平原河网城镇化地区的水质改善效果,以海宁市洛塘河圩区平原河网水系为例,针对平原河网水系流通性差与河流污染状况,通过MIKE11建立了洛塘河圩区河网水系的水动力水质耦合模型,提出并模拟不同引水方案,分析研究其影响机理,对不同方案的引水作用过程及其效果进行综合分析和比较。结果表明,合理选择引水地点和增加引水量对圩区水质改善作用明显,但相同情况下对初始浓度高的月份改善作用较弱;采用引水启停调度方案,短时间高流量间歇性引水,可更经济科学地使河网水质达到设计目标标准。研究结果可为平原河网区域水系综合整治提供参考依据。

改进的模糊层次分析法在缓倾斜厚大矿体开采方案优选中的应用

确定合适的开采方案是矿山企业必须考虑的重要问题,影响因素较多。针对山东某金矿矿体地质赋存特征及开采技术条件,在制定初步开采方案的基础上,采用改进的层次分析法和模糊数学理论优选开采方案。综合考虑影响开采方案选择的主要因素,建立了影响因素层次结构模型,基于改进的层次分析法即三标度法计算出开采方案各评价指标的权重,采用线性函数法和二元比较排序法实现决策指标的标准化及确定隶属度矩阵,进而构建了模糊数学综合评价模型;最后针对缓倾斜厚大矿体,利用模糊数学理论,得出待选开采方案的综合优越度分别为69.5%、67.6%和65.4%,从而确定上向分层胶结充填采矿法为最优开采方案。

基于动车组负荷电流特征的电流增量保护改进方案

电流增量保护由于整定值过高可能在牵引网发生高阻接地故障时拒动,受动车组负荷特殊工况和牵引网结构的影响可能误动作。为了分析电流增量保护拒动和误动的原因,有效辨识高阻接地故障电流和动车组负荷电流,在高速铁路牵引变电所馈线和动车组上进行电流录波测试,分析牵引变电所馈线电流和单列动车组负荷电流的电流增量和高次谐波增量特征及其形成原因,提出一种带高次谐波增量闭锁的电流增量保护改进方案,并对电流增量整定值和高次谐波增量闭锁整定值提出建议。基于现场高阻接地故障录波和动车组负荷测试电流波形分析以及基于MATLAB/Simulink的含动车组的牵引供电系统建模仿真分析,验证了所提改进方案在动车组负荷与高阻接地故障辨识方面的有效性。