Knee Arthroplasty Incidence Rate vs. Revision of Knee Arthroplasty and Its Associated Comorbidities in Colombia

Introduction: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has been established as a transformative solution in the treatment of advanced degenerative diseases of the knee, such as osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, and posttraumatic arthritis. In this sense, TKA surgery, which seeks to replace the damaged joint with prosthetic components, has proven to be highly effective in relieving pain, improving joint function, and, ultimately, significantly increasing patients’ quality of life. The present study describes the TKA and revision knee arthroplasty (RKA) rates and, identifies the associated co morbidities in the Colombian context. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was carried out. It describes demographic and clinical characteristics between two groups of patients, TKA or RKA, and its association with mortality at 30 days, 90 days, or one year after the intervention. Results: The incidence rate of the population undergoing TKA was approximately 11.71 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Furthermore, the incidence rate for revision knee arthroplasty (RKA) procedures in the same period was around 0.96 per 100,000 inhabitants. In both groups at 30 days postoperatively, a total mortality rate of 0.09%was recorded. When the follow-up was extended to 90 days, it increased to 0.15%;at one year postoperatively, it rose to 0.88%. Conclusion: Mortality after surgery was low in Colombia in 2019. Although RKA is a beneficial procedure, in certain circumstances, it was noted that it carries a higher risk compared to primary TKA. Our results emphasize the importance of careful evaluation of co morbidities and risk factors in patients undergoing these surgical procedures. The application of quality-of-life questionnaires should be considered in future studies on effectiveness and mortality for TKA and RKA in our country.

Stability of a Delayed Stochastic Epidemic COVID-19 Model with Vaccination and with Differential Susceptibility

In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start with a deterministic model, then add random perturbations on the contact rate using white noise to obtain a stochastic model. We first show that the delayed stochastic differential equation that describes the model has a unique global positive solution for any positive initial value. Under the condition R0 ≤ 1, we prove the almost sure asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model.

GLOBAL STABILITY OF SIRS EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH A CLASS OF NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATES AND DISTRIBUTED DELAYS

In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By using strict monotonicity of the incidence function and constructing a Lyapunov functional, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the nonlinear inci- dence rate is a saturated incidence rate, our result provides a new global stability condition for a small rate of immunity loss.

National Breast Cancer Mortality and Incidence Rates According to the Human Development Index: An Ecological Study

Background: This study aimed to identify the role of human development index (HDI) in the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer (BC) worldwide. Methods: Data on the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of BC for 184 countries were obtained from the GLOBOCAN. Data about the HDI and other indices were obtained from the World Bank Report 2013. Linear regression model was used for assessment the effect of HDI on BC occurrence rates. Results: In 2012, BCs were estimated to have affected a total of 1,671,149 individuals (crude rate: 47.8 per 100,000 individuals), and caused 521,907 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 14.7 per 100,000 individuals). Nearly half of total female BC cases (46.3%) with the highest risk of incidence (age-standardized Rate (ASR): 128 per 100,000) had occurred in very high HDI regions. The most proportion of the mortality burden was in low HDI and medium HDI areas. Linear regression analyses showed a direct significant correlation between the incidence of BC and HDI at the global level (B = 104.5, P < 0.001). The mortality rate of BC was not significantly associated with HDI (B = 3.26, P = 0.160). Conclusion: Our study showed that the burden of female BC is enormous in very high HDI and low HID regions. Targeted interventions have the ability to reduce this number significantly through resource-dependent interventions. Moreover, further reductions in mortality could be brought about by increasing access to curative treatment for patients with BC.

H1-antihistamine use and head and neck cancer risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus

This study aimed to examine the association between the use of H1-antihistamines(AHs)and head and neck cancer(HNC)risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM).Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan were analyzed for the period from 2008 to 2018.A propensity-score-matched cohort of 54,384 patients each in the AH user and nonuser groups was created and analyzed using Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression.The results showed that the risk of HNC was significantly lower in AH users(adjusted hazard ratio:0.55,95%CI:0.48 to 0.64)and the incidence rate was also lower(5.16 vs.8.10 per 100,000 person-years).The lower HNC incidence rate in AH users(95%CI:0.63;0.55 to 0.73)suggests that AH use may reduce the risk of HNC in T2DM patients.

Evaluation and application of a milk antibody ELISA for assessing the prevalence and incidence of bovine tuberculosis in dairy herds in Hubei Province,China

Bovine tuberculosis(bTB)is a chronic zoonotic disease that is endemic in China.Current in-vitro tests for bTB are mainly based on blood assays.Collection of samples results in some stress to the sampled cattle and associated economic losses for the herd owner.This study was designed to investigate the relationship between milk and serum antibody tests for bTB in dairy cows using 85 cows with milk and corresponding blood samples.Totally 4,395 milk samples were used to assesse the apparent(test)prevalence and incidence of bTB using the milk antibody ELISA.The association between levels of bTB milk antibody and milk quality was also evaluated.Milk and serum antibody tests showed a good correlation with a 87.5%(95%CI:61.7%,98.4)positive agreement and 98.7%(95%CI:95.4,99.8)negative agreement.The animal level lactoprevalence ranged from 0.3%(95%CI:0,1.2)to 33.3%(95%CI:26.6,40.6)in different farms and the incidence rate ranged from 0 head/cow-month(95%CI:0,0.02)to 0.04 head/cow-month(95%CI:0.02,0.07).Twenty percent of sampled farms met the criteria for bTB control in China.The prevalence on large-scale farms was lower(p<0.001)than on small farms.The bTB milk antibody levels had a negative correlation with milk yield and a positive correlation with somatic cell count(SCC),milk protein percentage(MPP)and percentage of total solids(TS).According to this research,milk ELISA could be used as a supplement of blood samples to assist in the surveillance for bTB and for alerting control and eradication of bTB.

Evolution of Acquired Humoral Immunity after Full Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2. IgG Levels in Healthcare Workers at 6 and 9 Months

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to be a major worldwide health problem. The present study aims to contribute to surveillance of the immune and clinical response of vaccines to SARS-CoV-2. Methods: Observational medication study on acquired immunity and effectiveness of vaccines. Population: 620 workers in the health service of Almansa (Spain). Representative sample of 150 individuals. Sociodemographic, clinical, and epidemiological data and samples were recorded to determine anti-SARS-CoV-2 serum IgG levels 6 and 9 months after vaccination with Pfizer. Results: Mean age 46.45 years;76% women;85.1% working in a hospital. 19.3% had had COVID-19 in the year prior to vaccination. 96.7% were fully vaccinated with Pfizer/BioNTech. At 6 months, 100% seropositivity and mean IgG levels of 3017.2 AU/ml. Significant variations in IgG levels in individuals with prior COVID-19 infection and smokers. At 9 months, 99.3% remained seropositive;2.8% infected after vaccination. The repeated measures analysis showed a difference in means of 669.0 AU/ml (significant decrease in IgG levels of 28.9%). Conclusion: Antibody levels remained positive 6 and 9 months after vaccination, although IgG levels were found to decay.

Global Dynamics Analysis of a Cholera Transmission Model with General Incidence and Multiple Modes of Infection

This paper develops an SIBR cholera transmission model with general incidence rate. Necessary and sufficient conditions for local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibria are established by Routh Hurwitz criterium, Lyapunov function, and the second additive composite matrix theorem. What is more, exploiting the DED is cover simulation tool, the parameter values of the model are estimated with the 1998-2021 cholera case data in China. Finally, we perform sensitivity analysis for the basic reproduction number to seek for effective interventions for cholera control. .

Deterministic and Stochastic Analysis of a New Rumor Propagation Model with Nonlinear Propagation Rate in Social Network

This paper presents a study on a new rumor propagation model with nonlinear propagation rate and secondary propagation rate. We divide the total population into three groups, the ignorant, the spreader and the aware. The nonlinear incidence rate describes the psychological impact of certain serious rumors on social groups when the number of individuals spreading rumors becomes larger. The main contributions of this work are the development of a new rumor propagation model and some results of deterministic and stochastic analysis of the rumor propagation model. The results show the influence of nonlinear propagation rate and stochastic fluctuation on the dynamic behavior of the rumor propagation model by using Lyapunov function method and stochastic related knowledge. Numerical examples and simulation results are given to illustrate the results obtained.

TWO DIFFERENTIAL INFECTIVITY EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATE

This paper considers two differential infectivity（DI） epidemic models with a nonlinear incidence rate and constant or varying population size. The models exhibits two equilibria, namely., a disease-free equilibrium O and a unique endemic equilibrium. If the basic reproductive number σ is below unity,O is globally stable and the disease always dies out. If σ〉1, O is unstable and the sufficient conditions for global stability of endemic equilibrium are derived. Moreover,when σ〈 1 ,the local or global asymptotical stability of endemic equilibrium for DI model with constant population size in n-dimensional or two-dimensional space is obtained.

Stability Analysis of SIQS Epidemic Model with Saturated Incidence Rate

A SIQS epidemic model with saturated incidence rate is studied. Two equilibrium points exist for the system, disease-free and endemic equilibrium. The stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium exists when the basic reproduction number R0, is less or greater than unity respectively. The global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium is proved using Lyapunov functions and Poincare-Bendixson theorem plus Dulac’s criterion respectively.

Dynamics of a Nonautonomous SIR Model with Time-Varying Impulsive Release and General Nonlinear Incidence Rate in a Polluted Environment

In a polluted environment, considering the biological population infected with a kind of disease and hunted by human beings, we formulate a nonautonomous SIR population-epidemic model with time-varying impulsive release and general nonlinear incidence rate and investigate dynamical behaviors of the model. Under the reasonable assumptions, the sufficient conditions which guarantee the globally attractive of the disease-free periodic solution and the permanence of the infected fish are established, that is, the infected fish dies out if , whereas the disease persists if . To substantiate our theoretical results, extensive numerical simulations are performed for a hypothetical set of parameter values.

Predicting COVID-19 fatality rate based on age group using LSTM

Objective: To predict the daily incidence and fatality rates based on long short-term memory(LSTM) in 4 age groups of COVID-19 patients in Mazandaran Province, Iran.Methods: To predict the daily incidence and fatality rates by age groups, this epidemiological study was conducted based on the LSTM model. All data of COVID-19 disease were collected daily for training the LSTM model from February 22, 2020 to April 10, 2021 in the Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. We defined 4 age groups, i.e., patients under 29, between 30 and 49, between 50 and 59, and over 60 years old. Then, LSTM models were applied to predict the trend of daily incidence and fatality rates from 14 to 40 days in different age groups. The results of different methods were compared with each other.Results: This study evaluated 5 0826 patients and 5 109 deaths with COVID-19 daily in 20 cities of Mazandaran Province. Among the patients, 25 240 were females(49.7%), and 25 586 were males(50.3%). The predicted daily incidence rates on April 11, 2021 were 91.76, 155.84, 150.03, and 325.99 per 100 000 people, respectively;for the fourteenth day April 24, 2021, the predicted daily incidence rates were 35.91, 92.90, 83.74, and 225.68 in each group per 100 000 people. Furthermore, the predicted average daily incidence rates in 40 days for the 4 age groups were 34.25, 95.68, 76.43, and 210.80 per 100 000 people, and the daily fatality rates were 8.38, 4.18, 3.40, 22.53 per 100 000 people according to the established LSTM model. The findings demonstrated the daily incidence and fatality rates of 417.16 and 38.49 per 100 000 people for all age groups over the next 40 days. Conclusions: The results highlighted the proper performance of the LSTM model for predicting the daily incidence and fatality rates. It can clarify the path of spread or decline of the COVID-19 outbreak and the priority of vaccination in age groups.

Spatiotemporal analysis,hotspot mapping,and clustering of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the initial phase of the pandemic in Qom province,Iran

Objective:To identify the incidence rate,relative risk,hotspot regions and incidence trend of COVID-19 in Qom province,northwest part of Iran in the first stage of the pandemic.Methods:The study included 1125 officially reported PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 20 February 2020 to 20 April 2020 in 90 regions in Qom city,Iran.The Bayesian hierarchical spatial model was used to model the relative risk of COVID-19 in Qom city,and the segmented regression model was used to estimate the trend of COVID-19 incidence rate.The Poisson distribution was applied for the observed number of COVID-19,and independent Gamma prior was used for inference on log-relative risk parameters of the model.Results:The total incidence rate of COVID-19 was estimated at 89.5 per 100000 persons in Qom city(95%CI:84.3,95.1).According to the results of the Bayesian hierarchical spatial model and posterior probabilities,43.33%of the regions in Qom city have relative risk greater than 1;however,only 11.11%of them were significantly greater than 1.Based on Geographic Information Systems(GIS)spatial analysis,10 spatial clusters were detected as active and emerging hotspot areas in the south and central parts of the city.The downward trend was estimated 10 days after the reporting of the first case(February 7,2020);however,the incidence rate was decreased by an average of 4.24%per day(95%CI:−10.7,−3.5).Conclusions:Spatial clusters with high incidence rates of COVID-19 in Qom city were in the south and central regions due to the high population density.The GIS could depict the spatial hotspot clusters of COVID-19 for timely surveillance and decision-making as a way to contain the disease.

一类具有非线性发生率的SEIR传染病模型的全局稳定性分析（英文）

In this paper,an SEIR model with nonlinear incidence rates are studied.The basic reproduction number R_0 characterizes the disease transmission dynamics: if R_0≤ 1,the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease always dies out,if R_0> 1 then there is a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable and the disease persists.

Assessment of Hypertension-Induced Deaths in Ghana: A Nation-Wide Study from 2012 to 2016

Globally, hypertension is one of the leading causes of death. It can potentially lead to heart disease and stroke, among others, that could result to premature death. In Ghana, hypertension is considered as a disease that contributes to an increase in outpatients’ attendance. To assess the trend differentials of hypertension-induced deaths in Ghana, Chi-square test for equal proportions and Marascuilo procedure for pairwise comparison were performed using surveillance data on reported number of deaths from 2012 to 2016 across the then ten regions. The results show that incidence of hypertension-induced mortality was significantly different for almost all the regions and over the years. The incidence of hypertension-induced mortality has significantly reduced from 2012 to 2016. However, Volta Region recorded the highest incidence of mortality cases (p-value less of 0.0001) than the other regions during the period under review, while the Upper East Region recorded continuous increase in incidence of mortality cases with the highest in 2016. The Eastern Region, Central Region, and Greater Accra Region recorded significantly (p-value less of 0.0001) higher incidence of hypertension-induced mortality than the Ashanti Region, Brong Ahafo Region, Northern Region, Western Region and Upper West Region. The Upper West Region and Western Region had the lowest incidence of mortality. The decline in trend of hypertension-induced mortality could be attributed to some healthcare interventions put in place during the period. One of these interventions was the introduction of health insurance in 2003, a development which has been shown to affect the health seeking behaviors of the people. It is, therefore, important to investigate factors affecting these spatial and temporal dynamics in order to determine appropriate ways to actively control the hypertension-induced deaths in the country. Public education on health should be intensified so as to totally curb hypertension and its attendant risks.

Implication of Reported Viral Hepatitis Incidence Rate Change in Hubei Province, China, between 2004-2010

This study examined the change of reported incidence rate for viral hepatitis in Hubei province, China, between 2004 to 2010 to provide scientific evidence for viral hepatitis control. Reported viral hepatitis infection cases were queried from Centre for Disease Control of Hubei Province, China. The incidence of viral hepatitis A decreased steadily across the study period. Viral hepatitis B composed 85% of the viral hepatitis cases. When reported incidence rates for chronic hepatitis B increased, the rates of acute and unclassified cases dropped from 2005 to 2010. The reported viral hepatitis B incidence rate for males was around 1.5-2 times higher than for females. The average annual percentage change of reported viral hepatitis B incidence rates was 4%. The same index for viral hepatitis C was 28%. The reported viral hepatitis B incidence rate of people under 20 years old declined over the period. This decrease was mainly attributed to the recent implementation of vaccination plan. Reported incidence rate of viral hepatitis E also rose in those years. Having a better understanding on reported incidence rates of the present surveillance system is important for developing strategies for further prevention of viral hepatitis. In addition, the data showed that a surveillance system that differentiates new and former infected cases will be more effective in providing evidence for disease control.

Breast and Ovarian Cancer in Young Women of the Arabian Gulf Region: Relationship to Age

It is widely known that cancer is a disease of “old-age”. However available data show that this is not the case for many types of cancers. Incidences of breast and ovarian cancers have varying rates of change with age. Breast cancer data of Arabian-gulf women, show that the incidence rates increase with age and reach a maximum at 39 year. It then declines linearly with age to about 55 years. The rate of increase and its changes with age are similar to those of many other countries. In the premenopausal phase the relationship between incidence and age could be adequately modeled using a linear model for the logarithmic transformations of age and incidence. Similar observations are made for the ovarian cancer incidences. Results: It is shown that the rate of increase in breast and ovarian cancer incidence with respect to age is increasing in the premenopausal ages. Moreover, the burden of the disease with respect to mortality and “Disability Adjusted Life Years” or DALY, varied considerably among the six gulf countries. Conclusions: We conclude, based on the age incidence relationship that the number of cancer cases may double in the next period that follows our study period (1998-2009). Moreover, if the six countries have identical relationship between age and the two types of cancer, there should be an integrated and unified effort to have a common strategy for prevention and control.

Complex dynamics of a discrete-time SIR model with nonlinear incidence and recovery rates

In this paper,a discrete-time SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and recovery rates is obtained by using the forward Euler’s method.The existence and stability of fixed points in this model are well studied.The center manifold theorem and bifurcation theory are applied to analyze the bifurcation properties by using the discrete time step and the intervention level as control parameters.We discuss in detail some codimension-one bifurcations such as transcritical,period-doubling and Neimark–Sacker bifurcations,and a codimension-two bifurcation with 1:2 resonance.In addition,the phase portraits,bifurcation diagrams and maximum Lyapunov exponent diagrams are drawn to verify the correctness of our theoretical analysis.It is found that the numerical results are consistent with the theoretical analysis.More interestingly,we also found other bifurcations in the model during the numerical simulation,such as codimension-two bifurcations with 1:1 resonance,1:3 resonance and 1:4 resonance,generalized period-doubling and fold-flip bifurcations.The results show that the dynamics of the discrete-time model are richer than that of the continuous-time SIR epidemic model.Such a discrete-time model may not only be widely used to detect the pathogenesis of infectious diseases,but also make a great contribution to the prevention and control of infectious diseases.

A Novel Analysis Approach of Uniform Persistence for an Epidemic Model with Quarantine and Standard Incidence Rate

Inspired by the transmission characteristics of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),an epidemic model with quarantine and standard incidence rate is first developed,then a novel analysis approach is proposed for finding the ultimate lower bound of the number of infected individuals,which means that the epidemic is uniformly persistent if the control reproduction number R_(c)>1.This approach can be applied to the related biomat hem at ical models,and some existing works can be improved by using that.In addition,the infection-free equilibrium V^(0)of the model is locally asymptotically stable(LAS)if R_(c)<1 and linearly stable if R_(c)=1;while V^(0)is unstable if R_(c)>1.