Disaster clusters refer to major disasters that cluster in space and time without any linkage, resulting in large direct damage and economic ripple effects(EREs).However, the cumulative EREs caused by a disaster clust...Disaster clusters refer to major disasters that cluster in space and time without any linkage, resulting in large direct damage and economic ripple effects(EREs).However, the cumulative EREs caused by a disaster cluster may not be equal to the summation EREs of the individual disasters within a cluster. We constructed a global economic ripple input-output model suitable for the analysis of disaster clusters and demonstrated the extent of this difference with the example of two typical catastrophes that occurred in 2011(the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Thailand Flood), within an interval of only 136 days. The results indicate that:(1) The EREs suffered by 11 of the 35countries affected(30%) are “1 + 1 > 2”, and “1 + 1 < 2”for 24 of the 35 countries affected(70%). This indicates that there is a signifi cant difference between the cumulative and the summation losses. The difference is related to factors such as trade distance, economic influence of disasteraffected sectors, and trade ties;(2) The EREs are more than two times the direct loss and have an industrial dependence, mostly aggregated in key sectors with strong industrial influence and fast trade times in the industrial chain;and(3) Additional EREs due to the extension of the recovery period will be aggregated in countries with close trade ties to the disaster-affected country, further magnifying the difference.展开更多
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42171074,41907395)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC1502902)+2 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2021M690425)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2021NTST28)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(No.2019QZKK0906).
文摘Disaster clusters refer to major disasters that cluster in space and time without any linkage, resulting in large direct damage and economic ripple effects(EREs).However, the cumulative EREs caused by a disaster cluster may not be equal to the summation EREs of the individual disasters within a cluster. We constructed a global economic ripple input-output model suitable for the analysis of disaster clusters and demonstrated the extent of this difference with the example of two typical catastrophes that occurred in 2011(the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Thailand Flood), within an interval of only 136 days. The results indicate that:(1) The EREs suffered by 11 of the 35countries affected(30%) are “1 + 1 > 2”, and “1 + 1 < 2”for 24 of the 35 countries affected(70%). This indicates that there is a signifi cant difference between the cumulative and the summation losses. The difference is related to factors such as trade distance, economic influence of disasteraffected sectors, and trade ties;(2) The EREs are more than two times the direct loss and have an industrial dependence, mostly aggregated in key sectors with strong industrial influence and fast trade times in the industrial chain;and(3) Additional EREs due to the extension of the recovery period will be aggregated in countries with close trade ties to the disaster-affected country, further magnifying the difference.
