The Conditional Heterocedasticity on the Argentine Inflation. An Analysis for the Period from 1943 to 2013

Numerous economic time series do not have a constant mean and in practical situations, we often see that the variance of observational error is subject to a substantial variability over time. This phenomenon is known as volatility. To take into account the presence of volatility in an economic series, it is necessary to resort to models known as conditional heteroscedastic models. In these models, the variance of a series at a given time point depends on past information and other data available up to that time point, so that a conditional variance must be defined, which is not constant and does not coincides with the overall variance of the observed series. There is a very large variety of nonlinear models in the literature, which are useful for the analysis of any economic time series with volatility, but we will focus in analyzing our series of interest using ARCH type models introduced by Engle （1982） and their extensions. These models are non-linear in terms of variance. Our objective will be the study of the monthly inflation data of Argentina for the period from January 1943 to December 2013. The data is officially published by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses （or INDEC as it is known in Argentina）. Although it is a very long period in which various changes and interventions took place, it can be seen that certain general patterns of behavior have persisted over time, which allows us to admit that the study can be appropriately based on available information.

A Computational Framework for Parachute Inflation Based on Immersed Boundary/Finite Element Approach

A computational framework for parachute inflation is developed based on the immersed boundary/finite element approach within the open-source IBAMR library.The fluid motion is solved by Peskin's diffuse-interface immersed boundary(IB)method,which is attractive for simulating moving-boundary flows with large deformations.The adaptive mesh refinement technique is employed to reduce the computational cost while retain the desired resolution.The dynamic response of the parachute is solved with the finite element approach.The canopy and cables of the parachute system are modeled with the hyperelastic material.A tether force is introduced to impose rigidity constraints for the parachute system.The accuracy and reliability of the present framework is validated by simulating inflation of a constrained square plate.Application of the present framework on several canonical cases further demonstrates its versatility for simulation of parachute inflation.

Impact of geopolitical risk,GDP,inflation,interest rate,and trade openness on foreign direct investment:Evidence from five Southeast Asian countries

Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Indonesia,South Korea,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand)influences foreign direct investment(FDI)during 1996-2019.The stationarity of the data was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)unit root test,which shows that the data became stationary after the first difference.The Kao,Pedroni,and Westerlund cointegration tests were employed to examine long-term cointegration among the selected variables(FDI,GPR index(GPRI),gross domestic product(GDP),inflation,interest rate,and trade openness(TOP)).The results indicated that these variables have a long-term cointegration.Consequently,regression analysis using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)regression,fixed effect,random effect,Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation,and system generalized moment method(GMM)revealed that GPRI and TOP negatively impacted FDI in the selected five Southeast Asian countries.At the same time,GDP,inflation,and interest rate positively influenced FDI in these countries.Because FDI is crucial to shaping a country’s macroeconomic structure,this study recommends that governments and central banks of the selected five Southeast Asian countries should implement policies and strategies to encourage foreign investments.

A Study on Inflation Theories and Turkey’s Inflation Problem

In the Turkish Economy,with the policies of opening up to the outside world and transition to a free market economy in the 1980s,there have been radical changes in the structure of the economy and the prices of all goods and services have begun to be determined by the market under market conditions.In the 1980s,which can be called the transition process to a free market economy and open economy,on the one hand,efforts were made to privatize state institutions in order to withdraw the state from economic life and to ensure that the prices of goods and services were determined under free market conditions,while on the other hand,efforts were made to grant freedom to foreign trade.While these two main issues were being realized,the import substitution industrialization strategy was abandoned and an export-based growth model was started to be implemented.The last step of this opening up and liberalization process was realized with the decision numbered 32 in 1989.With the liberalization of capital movements in the 1990s,we can say that economic growth and development was attempted to be achieved through hot money inflows rather than direct foreign investments.This orientation made the economy more vulnerable to crises,and for the first time,a crisis occurred in the form of the 1994 economic crisis,which was understood to be caused by hot money.The 1994 economic crisis was attempted to be overcome by providing state guarantees for bank deposits and applying high interest rates.Thus,it is noteworthy that high inflation was experienced in the period leading up to the 2001 economic crisis.Indeed,while the increase in the wholesale price index rarely remained below 30%on an annual basis between 1980 and 1990,increases of 50%and 60%began to be seen.However,the period between 1990 and 2000 was a period in which higher inflation rates were encountered.As a result of the environment created in the 1990s,we can say that the financial crisis experienced in 2001 deepened into an economic crisis and that this crisis had economic and political effects.Although there have been many economic crises in the history of the Republic,this crisis is considered to be the most deeply effective.While the crisis was overcome with the stand-by agreement made by the IMF and the announced Transition to a Strong Economy program,the economy began to grow rapidly with the ease of use of foreign resources,and the existence of political stability seems to have ensured that this economic growth process continued uninterruptedly except for 2009.A decrease was also experienced in inflation rates.After 2015,inflation rates began to rise again,and although negative economic growth rates were experienced between the 3rd quarter of 2018 and the 3rd quarter of 2019 during the exchange rate shock period in 2018,we can say that this was not effective enough to turn annual average growth rates into negatives.The exchange rate shock experienced in November 2021 both caused changes in economic policies and the adoption of new policies,and seems to have led to an economic crisis wave caused by the large increase in inflation rates.Within this framework,a post-Keynesian policy of combating inflation has been implemented,and with the new economic policies announced in June 2023,the Central Bank has gradually increased policy interest rates and started to implement tight monetary policy in cooperation with the Ministry of Treasury and Finance,and we can say that a new phase has been entered in the post-Keynesian policy of combating inflation.However,in our opinion,it is necessary to determine well where inflation originates from and what ensures its continuation.In this context,Turkey’s inflation problem will be analyzed by utilizing the views of post-Keynesians on inflation and the profit-push inflation approach.

Signs of Aneurysm Formation Learned from Rubber Balloon Inflation

Aneurysms can be classified into two main types based on their shape: saccular (spherical) and fusiform (cylindrical). In order to clarify the formation of aneurysms, we analyzed and examined the relationship between external force (internal pressure) and deformation (diameter change) of a spherical model using the Neo-Hookean model, which can be used for hyperelastic materials and is similar to Hooke’s law to predict the nonlinear stress-strain behavior of materials with large deformation. For a cylindrical model, we conducted an experiment using a rubber balloon. In the spherical model, the magnitude of the internal pressure Δp value is proportional to G (modulus of rigidity) and t (thickness), and inversely proportional to R (radius of the sphere). In addition, the maximum pressure Δp (max) is reached when λ (=expanded diameter/original diameter) is approximately 1.2, and the change in diameter becomes unstable (nonlinear change) thereafter. In the cylindrical model, localized expansion occurred at λ = 1.32 (λ = 1.98 when compared to the diameter at internal pressure Δp = 0) compared to the nearby uniform diameter, followed by a sudden rapid expansion (unstable expansion jump), forming a distinct bulge, and the radial and longitudinal deformations increased with increasing Δp, leading to the rupture of the balloon. Both models have a starting point where nonlinear deformation changes (rapid expansion) occur, so quantitative observation of the artery’s shape and size is important to prevent aneurysm formation.

充气式共享智能快递包装袋设计研究

为解决快递包装行业中过度包装、包装材料回收难度大、用户信息容易泄露等难题,实现快递包装可循环、轻量化、智能化的绿色发展。基于对当前快递包装问题的调研与分析,采用SCAMPER创新思维方法探索解决方案,确定以创新快递包装的结构、材料、打包方式为突破口,整合物联网技术及软件技术,设计研究一种无需减震填充物的、可共享循环使用的智能快递包装袋。提出充气式共享智能快递包装袋解决方案。创新设计充气式包装结构与更高效的打包方式,采用可降解材料,结合物联网技术,通过移动端程序和共享快递袋收发终端完成快递袋的领取、快充气打包、寄件、快放气拆件和归还快递袋的收发快递流程,实现可共享循环使用、无填充物、智能高效和无面单的预期设想,为绿色可持续的快递包装提出一种新思路。

经济学中Inflation词义的变化及其翻译

在相关的经济学文献中,英文单词"inflation"常常被翻译为"通货膨胀"一词。虽然有一定的合理性,但是,实际上也是不准确的;当前,"inflation"一词已经发生了词义转移,摆脱了与货币发行量的关系,再将其翻译为"通货膨胀",就会影响经济理论的研究。文章将说明经济学中英文单词"inflation"词义的变化与当前合适的译法。

基于面料缩率测试与服装虚拟技术的充气服装制版方法

针对充气服装生产中,面料受热收缩与衣片充气变形现象影响服装版型准确制定,因而造成高试错成本的现存难题,探索低成本、高效率的充气服装制版方法。通过设计面料缩率实验分别测试充气针织服装面料横纵向热缩率与充气缩率值以辅助调整服装版型比例,并基于服装虚拟试衣软件探索充气服装的虚拟建模方法,参考款式设计图完成服装建模与版型调整后导出版型图以制作成衣,所得成衣较还原充气服装款式设计图的造型。将缩率测试实验与虚拟技术相结合,有助于充气服装版型的准确制定,能够减少样衣制作次数,节省成本并提高产品开发效率。

A New Congestion-Driven Placement Algorithm Based on Cell Inflation

A new congestion driven placement Algorithm is described based on the cell inflation. In this approach, the methods of probability estimation and star model are used to evaluate the routing of nets. Global placement can be done by using the algorithm of global optimization and slicing partitioning. The denotation of virtual area of cell is given to indicate not only the area of cell but also the routing demand.The virtual area of a cell is got by using the strategy of cell inflation, with which in the slicing partitioning, the routing congestion is eliminated. Further reduction in congestion is achieved by cell moving. The algorithm has been tested on a set of sample circuits from American companies, with great improvement in routablity having been obtained.

OPTIMAL CONTROL OF MARKOVIAN SWITCHING SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS TO PORTFOLIO DECISIONS UNDER INFLATION

This article is concerned with a class of control systems with Markovian switching, in which an It5 formula for Markov-modulated processes is derived. Moreover, an optimal control law satisfying the generalized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman （HJB） equation with Markovian switching is characterized. Then, through the generalized HJB equation, we study an optimal consumption and portfolio problem with the financial markets of Markovian switching and inflation. Thus, we deduce the optimal policies and show that a modified Mutual Fund Theorem consisting of three funds holds. Finally, for the CRRA utility function, we explicitly give the optimal consumption and portfolio policies. Numerical examples are included to illustrate the obtained results.

试验因素对轮胎侧偏特性的影响

研究测试过程中负荷、充气压力和测试轮辋对轮胎侧偏特性的影响。结果表明:不同规格轮胎侧偏刚度均随负荷增大而增大,前期几乎呈线性变化,后期增大减缓;不同充气压力下轮胎侧偏刚度随负荷变化曲线存在交点,名义高宽比越小,出现交点的负荷越大;增大轮辋宽度时,轮胎刚性增大,名义高宽比越大,轮胎侧偏刚度增幅越大。因此应严格控制试验条件,保证试验数据的准确性和有效性。

Variance Inflation Factor: As a Condition for the Inclusion of Suppressor Variable(s) in Regression Analysis

Suppression effect in multiple regression analysis may be more common in research than what is currently recognized. We have reviewed several literatures of interest which treats the concept and types of suppressor variables. Also, we have highlighted systematic ways to identify suppression effect in multiple regressions using statistics such as: R2, sum of squares, regression weight and comparing zero-order correlations with Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) respectively. We also establish that suppression effect is a function of multicollinearity;however, a suppressor variable should only be allowed in a regression analysis if its VIF is less than five (5).

A two-stage inflation method in parameter estimation to compensate for constant parameter evolution in Community Earth System Model

Parameter estimation is defined as the process to adjust or optimize the model parameter using observations.A long-term problem in ensemble-based parameter estimation methods is that the parameters are assumed to be constant during model integration.This assumption will cause underestimation of parameter ensemble spread,such that the parameter ensemble tends to collapse before an optimal solution is found.In this work,a two-stage inflation method is developed for parameter estimation,which can address the collapse of parameter ensemble due to the constant evolution of parameters.In the first stage,adaptive inflation is applied to the augmented states,in which the global scalar parameter is transformed to fields with spatial dependence.In the second stage,extra multiplicative inflation is used to inflate the scalar parameter ensemble to compensate for constant parameter evolution,where the inflation factor is determined according to the spread growth ratio of model states.The observation system simulation experiment with Community Earth System Model(CESM)shows that the second stage of the inflation scheme plays a crucial role in successful parameter estimation.With proper multiplicative inflation factors,the parameter estimation can effectively reduce the parameter biases,providing more accurate analyses.

Stability analysis of radial inflation of incompressible compositerubber tubes

The inflation mechanism is examined for a composite cylindrical tube composed of two incompressible rubber materials, and the inner surface of the tube is subjected to a suddenly applied radial pressure. The mathematical model of the problem is formulated, and the corresponding governing equation is reduced to a second-order ordinary differential equation by means of the incompressible condition of the material, the boundary conditions, and the continuity conditions of the radial displacement and the radial stress of the cylindrical tube. Moreover, the first integral of the equation is obtained. The qualitative analyses of static inflation and dynamic inflation of the tube are presented. Particularly, the effects of material parameters, structure parameters, and the radial pressure on radial inflation and nonlinearly periodic oscillation of the tube are discussed by combining numerical examples.

Exact Solution in the New Inflation Scenario with Induced Gravity

Taking the Hubble parameter directly as a function of the scalar field instead of as a function of time,H = H( ), we present a new exact solution in the new inflation model with induced gravity. This includes solution which is inflation for < > end, and develops smoothly towards radiation-like evolution for ≥ end. The inflation is driven by the evolution of the field with inflation potential, V( ) = λ 2 v2)2.density, ns, is computed and ns lies well inside the limits set by the cosmic background explorer (COBE) satellite.the dex of the scalar effective cosmological constant Aeff tends to zero when inflation ends.

Exact Solution in Chaotic Inflation Model with Potential Minima

Taking the cosmological expansion rate directly as a function of field , H = H( ), we present a new exact solution to Einstein's equations that describe the evolution of cosmological chaotic inflation model. The inflation is driven by the evolution of scalar field with inflation potential V( ) = λ 2 v2)2.8 ( 2- 2)2.The spectral indices of the scalar density ns and gravitational wave fluctuations ng are computed. The value of ns lies well inside the limits set by the cosmic background explorer satellite.

路径导向性护理联合带凝胶表层充气体位垫对股骨头置换术患者术中压力性损伤及舒适度的影响

目的 分析路径导向性护理联合带凝胶表层充气体位垫对股骨头置换术患者术中压力性损伤及舒适度的影响。方法 选取2020年1月至2022年12月收治的90例股骨头置换术患者为研究对象,随机将其分为对照组和观察组,每组45例。对照组采用常规护理干预,观察组在对照组基础上加路径导向性护理联合带凝胶表层充气体位垫干预。比较两组的干预效果。结果 观察组的压力性损伤总发生率为6.67%,低于对照组的22.22%,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。干预后,观察组的Kolcaba舒适状况量表各维度评分高于对照组,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。干预后,观察组的世界卫生组织生活质量量表(WHOQOL-BREF)各维度评分均高于对照组,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 路径导向性护理联合带凝胶表层充气体位垫不仅能够有效减少股骨头置换术患者术中压力性损伤的发生,还能提高其舒适度,从而提升术后生活质量,值得推广。

Study of velocity effects on parachute inflation performance based on fluid-structure interaction method

The inflation of a five-ring cone parachute with the airflow velocity of 18 m/s is studied based on the simplified arbitrary Lagrange Euler （SALE）/fluid-structure interaction （FSI） method. The numerical results of the canopy shape, stability, opening load, and drag area are obtained, and they are well consistent with the experimental data gained from wind tunnel tests. The method is then used to simulate the opening process under different velocities. It is found that the first load shock affected by the velocity often occurs at the end of the initial inflation stage. For the first time, the phenomena that the inflation distance proportion coefficient increases and the dynamic load coefficient decreases, respectively, with the increase in the velocity are revealed. The above proposed method is competent to solve the large deformation problem without empirial coefficients, and can collect more space-time details of fluid-structure-motion information when it is compared with the traditional method.

Inflationary effects of oil prices and domestic gasoline prices:Markov-switching-VAR analysis

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.

Credit Risk Model Taking Account of Inflation and Its Contribution to Macroeconomic Discussion on Effect of Inflation on Output Growth

We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.