Local Influence Analysis for Semiparametric Reproductive Dispersion Nonlinear Models

The present paper proposes a semiparametric reproductive dispersion nonlinear model （SRDNM） which is an extension of the nonlinear reproductive dispersion models and the semiparameter regression models. Maximum penalized likelihood estimates （MPLEs） of unknown parameters and nonparametric functions in SRDNM are presented. Assessment of local influence for various perturbation schemes are investigated. Some local influence diagnostics are given. A simulation study and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

Analysis on the Influence of Computer Technology on Agricultural Development in China

Wide application of the computer-leading information technology is promoting tremendous changes in agricultural management,production,sales and agricultural science and technology,and education,showing broad application prospects,bringing unprecedented development opportunities to the information technology industry,greatly driving agricultural modernization,but also bringing challenges to agricultural science and technology workers to meet the agricultural information technology revolution. Information technology,as a kind of resource,is manifesting its functions in agricultural production and operation of agricultural products,and farmers are also paying more attention to the use of information technology to guide production and sales. China should take full advantage of the computer-centered information resources,and take the road of agricultural modernization and information to develop agriculture.

Influencing factor analysis of interception probability and classification-regression neural network based estimation

The interception probability of a single missile is the basis for combat plan design and weapon performance evaluation,while its influencing factors are complex and mutually coupled.Existing calculation methods have very limited analysis of the influence mechanism of influencing factors,and none of them has analyzed the influence of the guidance law.This paper considers the influencing factors of both the interceptor and the target more comprehensively.Interceptor parameters include speed,guidance law,guidance error,fuze error,and fragment killing ability,while target performance includes speed,maneuverability,and vulnerability.In this paper,an interception model is established,Monte Carlo simulation is carried out,and the influence mechanism of each factor is analyzed based on the model and simulation results.Finally,this paper proposes a classification-regression neural network to quickly estimate the interception probability based on the value of influencing factors.The proposed method reduces the interference of invalid interception data to valid data,so its prediction accuracy is significantly better than that of pure regression neural networks.

Climate Change and Its Influence on Crop Farming in Xintai City

[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of climate and its influence on the crop farming in Xintai City.[Method] By using the yearly and monthly average temperature,rainfall,first and last frost dates,frost-free period,sunshine hours,etc.in Xintai City during 1957-2009,the variation characteristics of climate and its influence on the crop farming in Xintai City in recent 53 years were analyzed.[Result] The temperature rose in the fluctuation in Xintai City.The warm winter phenomenon was prominent,and ≥0℃ accumulated temperature increased yearly.In recent 10 years,the first frost postponed,and the last frost advanced.The growth season of crop prolonged.The annual rainfall decreased in the fluctuation,and the annual sunshine hours presented the decrease trend as a whole.For the accumulated temperature increased,and the frost-free period prolonged,the sowing date and farming system of main crops in Xintai City changed.The rising of winter temperature was favorable for the development of industrialized agriculture,such as the warm house booth.The multiple-cropping index improved,and the characteristic planting advantage was prominent.The climate warming made that the planting areas of yellow ginger and day lily enlarged,and the planting boundary moved northward.The sowing dates of wheat and peanut postponed.The sowing date of yellow ginger advanced,and the growth period prolonged.Meanwhile,the climate variation also made that the plant diseases and insect pests,spring frozen injury aggravated in Xintai.The influence of extreme weather induced by the increasing of extreme climate event on the yield and quality of fruit tree was stronger.The planting risks of yellow ginger and day lily increased.[Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for promoting the sustainable development of economic society in Xintai.

Influence of Wind Vector Structure Variation of Typhoon "Catfish" Circulation on Its Pathway Mutation

[Objective] The research aimed to study the wind vector structure variation of No.1013 strong typhoon 'catfish',and its influence on typhoon pathway mutation.[Method] According to the theory that the asymmetric structure of typhoon vortex had influence on typhoon movement,the center of No.1013 super typhoon 'catfish' was as the coordinate origin,and 850,500 hPa tangential rotation speeds within 300-500 km were decomposed into u and v components.The composite force movement tendency of typhoon was analyzed.The wind vector structure variation of No.1013 strong typhoon 'catfish' and its influence on typhoon pathway mutation were discussed.[Result] At the quick movement stage of No.1013 strong typhoon,the wind vector had obvious asymmetric structure.When the typhoon rotated in situ,the wind vector presented symmetric structure.When ΔU,ΔV and composite wind vector had obvious variations,the composite force of typhoon changed,and the moved direction also would change.The asymmetric structure of wind speed near 300-500 km around 500 and 850 hPa typhoon centers was favorable for tendency of moved pathway.The pointed directions of ΔU,ΔV and composite wind vector could be as the direction of composite force movement of typhoon.[Conclusion] The research provided reference basis for typhoon prevention.

Development and validation of a predictive model for acute-onchronic liver failure after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a cause of acute-onchronic liver failure(ACLF).AIM To investigate the risk factors of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and construct a prediction model.METHODS In total,379 patients with decompensated cirrhosis treated with TIPS at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from 2017 to 2020 were selected as the training cohort,and 123 patients from Nanfang Hospital were included in the external validation cohort.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors.The prediction model was established based on the Akaike information criterion.Internal and external validation were conducted to assess the performance of the model.RESULTS Age and total bilirubin(TBil)were independent risk factors for the incidence of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS.We developed a prediction model comprising age,TBil,and serum sodium,which demonstrated good discrimination and calibration in both the training cohort and the external validation cohort.CONCLUSION Age and TBil are independent risk factors for the incidence of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.Our model showed satisfying predictive value.

Status quo and factors of depression and anxiety in patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer after plasma electrocision

BACKGROUND Bladder cancer is a type of cancer with a high incidence in men.Plasma electrosurgery(PES)is often used in the treatment of bladder cancer.Postoperative complications often cause depression and anxiety in patients after surgery.AIM To investigate the current state of depression and anxiety after PES in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer and analyze the factors affecting them.METHODS A retrospective study was conducted to compare the baseline data of patients by collecting their medical history and grouping them according to their mental status into negative and normal groups.Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors affecting the occurrence of anxiety and depression after surgery in patients with bladder cancer.RESULTS Comparative analyses of baseline differences showed that the patients in the negative and normal groups differed in terms of their first surgery,economic status,educational level,and marital status.A logistic regression analysis showed that it affected the occurrence of anxiety in patients with bladder cancer,and the results showed that whether the risk factors were whether or not it was the first surgery,monthly income between 3000 and 3000-6000,secondary or junior high school education level,single,divorced,and widowed statuses.CONCLUSION The risk factors affecting the onset of anxiety and depression in bladder cancer patients after PES are the number of surgeries,economic status,level of education,and marital status.This study provides a reference for the clinical treatment and prognosis of bladder cancer patients in the future.

Influence of Climatic Change on Rice Production in Anqing Zone

[Objective] The research aimed to study the influence of climatic variation on rice production in Anqing zone.[Method] Based on temperature and precipitation data in rice growth period (May-November) during 1980-2009,by using five-year sliding average method,the moving average charts of temperature and rainfall were made.The variation characteristics of main factors (temperature and precipitation) which affected rice growth were analyzed.By using line moving average simulation method,the climatic yield was separated,and the influence of climatic factor on rice yield in Anqing zone was analyzed.[Result] In recent 30 years,the temperature presented rise trend in rice growth period in Anqing zone.Started from 1993,the rise was obvious.But the rainfall had decline trend,and the rainfall was stable after 2000.These were the climatic background for that rice yield had a wave of quick increase after 2000.Seen from the separated results of trend yield and meteorological yield,the variation range of relative meteorological yield was big,and the maximum yield reduction reached 27.5%.In recent 30 years,there were four yield reduction years.The relationship between meteorological yield of rice and temperature was positive correlation except in September.The excessive rainfall in the rice harvest period had unfavorable influence on rice yield.The drought was the main meteorological agricultural disaster which affected rice yield in the zone.[Conclusion] The research provided the theoretical basis for improving grain yield in Anqing zone.

Analysis on Relationship between Overcast and Rainy Weather, Drought, Flood and Wheat Yield

[Objective] The research aimed to study influence of meteorological factor in late growth stage of wheat. [Method] Based on precipitation, sunshine and yield per unit of wheat in Anyang City in May of 1979-2008, the positive and negative influences of meteorological condition in late growth stage of wheat (May) on wheat yield in Anyang City were analyzed by using agricultural climatic statistical method. Moreover, the reason and defense measure of green-dry hazard in late growth stage of wheat in the city were studied. [Result] When the sunshine percentage in May > 55%, and rainfall < 45 mm, the wheat yield generally increased. But when it was overcast and rainy, and the sunshine was less, especially monthly rainfall > 80 mm, and monthly sunshine percentage < 55%, the wheat yield generally reduced. The overcast and rainy weather, flood in late growth stage of wheat were easy to cause green-dry yield reduction. The rainless weather even drought weren’t obviously unfavorable for good harvest of wheat. In May, when precipitation was too more, or duration was too long, and the air humidity was too big, the normal water supply and inorganic nutrient transmission were affected. Meanwhile, when the overcast and rainy weather was longer, the sunshine was shorter, and the sunshine intensity weakened in late stage, it wasn’t favorable for accumulation of photosynthetic product, and the normal implementing of grouting process was affected. The measures should be used to prevent and control green-dry yield reduction of wheat, such as discharging water and preventing flood, breeding good seed, scientific planting and reasonable irrigation. [Conclusion] The research provided scientific basis for studying variety improvement, scientific plantation, reasonable irrigation, good quality and high yield of wheat.

Analysis on Nutritional Risk Screening and Influencing Factors of Hospitalized Patients in Central Urban Area

Rational nutritional support shall be based on nutritional screening and nutritional assessment. This study is aimed to explore nutritional risk screening and its influencing factors of hospitalized patients in central urban area. It is helpful for the early detection of problems in nutritional supports, nutrition management and the implementation of intervention measures, which will contribute a lot to improving the patient＇s poor clinical outcome. A total of three tertiary medical institutions were enrolled in this study. From October 2015 to June 2016, 1202 hospitalized patients aged ≥18 years were enrolled in Nutrition Risk Screening 2002（NRS2002） for nutritional risk screening, including 8 cases who refused to participate, 5 cases of same-day surgery and 5 cases of coma. A single-factor chi-square test was performed on 312 patients with nutritional risk and 872 hospitalized patients without nutritional risk. Logistic regression analysis was performed with univariate analysis（P〈0.05）, to investigate the incidence of nutritional risk and influencing factors. The incidence of nutritional risk was 26.35% in the inpatients, 25.90% in male and 26.84% in female, respectively. The single-factor analysis showed that the age ≥60, sleeping disorder, fasting, intraoperative bleeding, the surgery in recent month, digestive diseases, metabolic diseases and endocrine system diseases had significant effects on nutritional risk（P〈0.05）. Having considered the above-mentioned factors as independent variables and nutritional risk（Y=1, N=0） as dependent variable, logistic regression analysis revealed that the age ≥60, fasting, sleeping disorders, the surgery in recent month and digestive diseases are hazardous factors for nutritional risk. Nutritional risk exists in hospitalized patients in central urban areas. Nutritional risk screening should be conducted for inpatients. Nutritional intervention programs should be formulated in consideration of those influencing factors, which enable to reduce the nutritional risk and to promote the rehabilitation of inpatients.

Analysis of the Current Status and Influencing Factors of the Readiness for Discharge of Patients after Prostate Cancer Surgery Based on the Concept of Enhanced Recovery after Surgery (ERAS)

Objective To investigate the level of readiness for discharge of patients after prostate cancer surgery based on the concept of Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS), and to explore its influencing factors, so as to provide references for improving the readiness for discharge of patients after prostate cancer surgery. Methods The general information questionnaire, the discharge preparation scale, and the discharge guidance quality scale were used to investigate 119 patients discharged from the urological surgery department of a tertiary A-level hospital in Guangzhou after radical prostatectomy. Results The total score of discharge readiness of patients after radical prostatectomy was 147.74 ± 35.71 points, which was at a lower middle level and the total score of discharge guidance quality was 180.68 ± 38.91 points, which was at a medium level. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that education level, family monthly income, Gleason score, whether to perform lymphatic dissection, whether to discharge with a urinary catheter, and the quality of discharge guidance were the main factors influencing the readiness for discharge of patients after prostate cancer surgery. Conclusion In clinical nursing work, it is necessary to implement individualized health education according to the characteristics and needs of different patients to improve the level of preparation for discharge of patients after prostate cancer surgery.

Examining the Impacts of Key Influencers on Community Development

In this research,we aim to identify and investigate the impacts of key influencers on community formations and developments.We assess the impacts of key influencers by analyzing the activities and structure of the social media presence of a local community.Results of our analysis show that key influencers play important roles in connecting the community,transferring information,and improving overall sentiment of the community members.Our findings suggest that community practitioners can apply social network analysis to identify value-added influencers and discover strategies for improving the community and keeping leadership roles.

Parameters analysis and application of the differential excitation detection technology

A differential excitation probe based on eddy current testing technology was designed. Sheet specimens of Q 235 steel with prefabricated micro-cracks of different widths and of aluminum with prefabricated micro-cracks of different depths were detected through the designed detection system. The characteristics of micro-cracks can be clearly showed after signals processing through the short-time Fourier transform（ STFT）. By changing the parameter and its value in detecting process,the factors including the excitation frequency and amplitude,the lift-off effect and the scanning direction were discussed,respectively. The results showed that the differential excitation probe was insensitive to dimension and surface state of the tested specimen,while it had a high degree of recognition for micro-crack detection. Therefore,when the differential excitation detection technology was used for inspecting micro-crack of turbine blade in aero-engine,and smoothed pseudo Wigner-Ville distribution was used for signal processing,micro-cracks of 0. 3 mm depth and 0. 1 mm width could be identified. The experimental results might be useful for further research on engineering test of turbine blades of aero-engine.

A Semi-Analytical Method for the PDFs of A Ship Rolling in Random Oblique Waves

The PDFs(probability density functions) and probability of a ship rolling under the random parametric and forced excitations were studied by a semi-analytical method. The rolling motion equation of the ship in random oblique waves was established. The righting arm obtained by the numerical simulation was approximately fitted by an analytical function. The irregular waves were decomposed into two Gauss stationary random processes, and the CARMA(2, 1) model was used to fit the spectral density function of parametric and forced excitations. The stochastic energy envelope averaging method was used to solve the PDFs and the probability. The validity of the semi-analytical method was verified by the Monte Carlo method. The C11 ship was taken as an example, and the influences of the system parameters on the PDFs and probability were analyzed. The results show that the probability of ship rolling is affected by the characteristic wave height, wave length, and the heading angle. In order to provide proper advice for the ship’s manoeuvring, the parametric excitations should be considered appropriately when the ship navigates in the oblique seas.

Statistical Diagnostic for Varying-Coefficient Single-Index Models Based on Empirical Likelihood Method

Varying-coefficient single-index model( VCSIM) avoids the so-called "curse of dimensionality " and is flexible enough to include several important statistical models. This paper considers statistical diagnosis for VCSIM. First,the parametric estimation equation is established based on empirical likelihood. Then,some diagnosis statistics are defined. At last, an example is given to illustrate all the results.

Research on Coupling Transfer Characteristics of Vibration Energy of Free Piston Linear Generator

In order to clarify the mechanism and main influencing factors of the vibration energy coupling transmission with a dual-piston structure,a thermodynamic and dynamic coupling model of the free piston linear generator(FPLG)was established.The system energy conversion,vibration energy coupling transmission,and influencing factors were studied in detail.The coupling transmission paths and the secondary influence mechanism from in-cylinder combustion on vibration energy transmission were obtained.In addition,the influence of the movement characteristics of the dual-piston on the vibration energy transmission was studied,and the typical parameter variation law was obtained,which provides theoretical guidance for the subsequent vibration reduction design of the FPLG.

Analysis of the influence of node location on transducer performance

This paper, taking the distance between the piezoelectric ceramic center and the displacement node location of the transducer as a parameter, investigates the relation of characteristic parameters of transducer, such as force factor, equivalent resistance, potential maximum electroacoustical efficiency, and loading performance, to the displacement node location. Some design considerations about the selection of node location are noted .

Survey on the Readiness for Hospital Discharge and Its Influencing Factors among Patients with Cardiac Valve Replacement

Background: There are about 200,000 patients in China who need to undergo valve replacement surgery each year. With the promotion and application of the Fast-Track Surgery concept and the increase in hospital bed turnover rate, the average hospital stay of patients undergoing CVR surgery has been significantly shortened, and thus the patients are still in the recovery stage rather than fully recovered when they are discharged from the hospital. Good preparation for discharge can improve patients’ post-discharge self-care ability, reduce the risk of re-admission, and save medical resources. Objective: To describe the status of readiness for hospital discharge among postoperative patients that have undergone CVR, and to explore its influencing factors. Methods: The general information questionnaire, the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale and the Quality of discharge Teaching Scale were utilized to investigate 130 post-CVR patients admitted to the Cardiothoracic Surgery Department of a tertiary A-Class hospital in Guangzhou from July 2019 to October 2020. Results: The Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale was at a moderate level with a total score of 163.88 ± 39.082, while the Quality of Discharge Teaching Scale was also at a moderate level with a total score of 194.09 ± 40.643. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that the quality of discharge guidance, gender, and occupation were the influencing factors of CVR patient’s readiness for hospital discharge. These three variables jointly explained 45.8% of the total variation. Conclusion: The level of CVR patients’ readiness for hospital discharge is at a moderate level, and the quality of discharge guidance positively affects patients’ readiness for discharge. Therefore, in clinical work, attention should be paid to patient discharge guidance. Personalized health education should be implemented to improve the quality of patient guidance.