Influence path and effect of climate change on geopolitical pattern

Marked by the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen 2009, climate change is shaping the new pattern for future geopolitics with unprecedented drive. Climate change has surpassed the category of pure environment problem and become a focal issue in international relations. Driven by climate change, new changes have taken place in the evolution of geopolitical pattern. (1) Geopolitical contention expands into new fields and regions. (2) Measures and tools of geopolitical contention become more diversified. (3) Main bodies of geopolitical gambling are divided into different groups. With the development of politicization, climate change has become the significant driving force that can influence the evolution of geopolitical pattern. Measures, sphere and contents of geopolitical contention changed dramatically, carbon emission permits, carbon tariff and new energy technology turned into the key points of geopolitical contention. Climate change acts on the evolution of geopolitical pattern through three main paths: "Feedback effect", "Trace back effect", and "Ripple effect", and they exert influence on geopolitical pattern with three impacts: "Depression effect", "Traceability effect", and "Diffusion effect". We draw several conclusions from the analysis: (1) Climate change gradually becomes one of the most active driving forces to impact on the evolution of geopolitical pattern in the present world and it diversifies the geopolitical targets. (2) Climate change generates new geopolitical tools. The developed countries use climate change as a "Lever" to pry strategic resources like energy and grain and the geopolitical means are in a more secretive way. (3) Low-carbon technology, with new energy technology as the core, becomes the key factor of geopolitical influence and power transition. Those who can take advantage of new energy technologies will occupy the leading position in future's climate change negotiations and geopolitical competition.

Influence Factors Concept Model for Public Participation in Nanotechnology Risk Communication

Based on risk social cognition theory and planned behavior theory, the influence factors of the public participation in the nanotechnology risk communication are analyzed,and the concept model is presented to analyze their relationships and functional mechanism. In the model,the risk communication behaviors are divided into two variables of the public opinion expression and information acquisition,and the subjective norm divided into the internal and external social networks. Then the questionnaire is designed so as to verify the proposed model and analyze their relationships. The survey data are analyzed using SMART PLS software. The validity analysis shows that the questionnaire has a high convergence and discriminant validity. In addition, the Cronbach'a coefficient of each item is more than 0. 70,which shows the questionnaire has a high credibility. Based on the statistical data analysis, relationships of the influence factors are obtained.Further,the influence path model of the public attitude,intention,self regulation and behavior control in the risk communication is established. According to the Bootstrap algorithm in SMART,the path coefficient and its explanation variance of each influence factor are obtained. The calculation results show that the explanation variance values are all bigger than 10% and the path is reliable.Based on the path model, the influence path and function relationships of the participation attitude, subjective norm and behavior control on the participation intention and behavior are obtained. This will provide theoretical and data supports for the risk management and strategy making of the public participation in nanotechnology risk communication.

STUDY ON THE STABILITY STRUCTURE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS,THE BIFURCATION OF PHASE.PATH CHARACTERISTICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIME-OSCILLATION OF HEAT SOURCE

This paper discusses the stability structure and the bifurcation of phase path characteristics of synoptic scale system.The analytic results show that the catastrophe of the synoptic scale disturbance may be caused by the nonlinear effects of barotropic and baroclinic instability and advection of ambient large-scale flow.Also, foregoing nonlinear effects on the speed of development and decay of the system are presented in the processes deviating from or approaching to equilibrium state.It has been found that there is a resonance phenomenon between the time-oscillation of heat source and the atmospheric disturbance.