Effect of information-motivation-behavioral skills model based perioperative nursing on pain in patients with gallstones

BACKGROUND The incidence of cholecystolithiasis is on the rise.Use of information,motivation,and behavioral skills can play a positive role in promoting changes in individual health behaviors.However,reports on the effects of information-motivationbehavioral(IMB)skills model based high-quality nursing as a perioperative nursing intervention for patients with gallstones are nonexistent.AIM To explore the application of IMB skills model based high-quality nursing in patients with gallstones.METHODS Two hundred and sixteen patients with cholecystolithiasis treated at our hospital from January 2022 to January 2023 were enrolled and divided into a control,highquality,and combined nursing groups,with 72 patients in each group.The control,high-quality,and combination groups received conventional,high-quality,and IMB skills model based perioperative nursing services,respectively.Differences in clinical indicators,stress levels,degree of pain,emotional state,and quality of life were observed,and complications and nursing satisfaction among the three groups were evaluated.RESULTS After nursing,the time to recovery of gastrointestinal function in the high-quality and combined nursing groups was significantly shorter than that of the control group,with the recovery of gastrointestinal function being the fastest in the combined nursing group(P<0.05).After nursing intervention,cortisol and norepinephrine levels in the high-quality and combined nursing groups were closer to normal than those of the control group 24 h after surgery,with the combined nursing group having the closest to normal levels(P<0.05).After 3 and 7 d of intervention,the patients’pain significantly improved,which was more prominent in the highquality and combination groups.Meanwhile,the pain score in the combination group was significantly lower than those of the control and high-quality nursing groups(P<0.05).After nursing intervention,the emotional states of all patients improved,and the scores of patients in the combination group were significantly lower than those of the control and high-quality nursing groups.The quality of life of patients in the high-quality and combined nursing groups significantly improved after nursing intervention compared to that of the control group,with the combined nursing group having the highest quality of life score.After intervention,the incidence of complications in the high-quality and combination groups was significantly lower than that of the control group(P<0.05),but the difference between the combination and high-quality nursing groups was not significant.Nursing satisfaction of patients in the high-quality and combination groups was significantly higher than that of the control group,with the nursing satisfaction being the highest in the combination group(P<0.05).CONCLUSION IMB skills model based nursing can improve surgical stress levels,degrees of pain,emotional state,quality of life,and nursing satisfaction of patients with gallstones and reduce the incidence of complications.

Effect of health education based on information-motivationbehavioral skills model on patients with unilateral vestibular dysfunction

BACKGROUND Vestibular dysfunction(VH)is a common concomitant symptom of late peri-pheral vestibular lesions,which can be trauma,poisoning,infection,heredity,and neurodegeneration,but about 50%of the causes are unknown.The study uses the information-motivation-behavioral skills(IMB)model for health education,effectively improve the quality of life,increase their self-confidence,reduce anxiety and depression,and effectively improve the psychological state of patients.AIM To explore the effect of health education based on the IMB model on the degree of vertigo,disability,anxiety and depression in patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction.METHODS The clinical data of 80 patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the retrospective research objects,and they were divided into the control group and the observation group with 40 cases in each group according to different nursing methods.Among them,the control group was given routine nursing health education and guidance,and the observation group was given health education and guidance based on the IMB model.The changes in self-efficacy,anxiety and depression,and quality of life of patients with unilateral VH were compared between the two groups.RESULTS There was no significant difference in General Self-Efficacy Scale(GSES)scale scores between the two groups of patients before nursing(P>0.05),which was comparable;after nursing,the GSES scale scores of the two groups were higher than those before nursing.The nursing group was higher than the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).There was no significant difference in the scores of Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale(HADS)and anxiety and depression subscales between the two groups before nursing(P>0.05).After nursing,the HADS score,anxiety,and depression subscale scores of the two groups of patients were lower than those before nursing,and the nursing group was lower than the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).After nursing,the Dizziness Handicap Inventory(DHI)scale and DHI-P,DHI-E and DHI-F scores in the two groups were decreased,and the scores in the nursing group were lower than those in the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Health education based on the IMB model can effectively improve patients'quality of life,increase self-efficacy of patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction,enhance patients'confidence,enable patients to resume normal work and life as soon as possible,reduce patients'anxiety and depression,and effectively improve patients'psychological status.

Health education intervention and its impact on patients with unilateral vestibular dysfunction:An information-motivation-behavioral model approach

Unilateral vestibular dysfunction is a one-sided impairment of vestibular function in one ear.Incorporating health education in treatment and rehabilitation plans can improve vestibular function,keep negative emotions at bay,and reduce the extent of the condition.This letter investigates the impact of the informationmotivation-behavioral skills model as a medium for health education on patient outcomes.While offering encouraging observations,there are certain limitations,such as the study’s retrospective design,small sample size,use of subjective measures,and lack of longer follow-ups that challenge the cogency of the study.The study is a step toward transforming vestibular dysfunction treatment through health education.

A Study on the Work Process-Based Practical Training Model for Basic Nursing Skills in Vocational Colleges

Objective:To explore and analyze the work process-based practical training teaching model for basic nursing skills in vocational colleges and its implementation effects.Methods:A total of 82 nursing students from our school were selected for the study,which was conducted from April 2023 to April 2024.Using a random number table method,the students were divided into an observation group and a control group,each with 41 students.The control group received conventional practical training teaching,while the observation group followed the work process-based practical training model for basic nursing skills.The assessment scores and teaching satisfaction of the two groups were compared.Results:The comparison of assessment scores showed that the observation group performed significantly better than the control group(P<0.05).The comparison of teaching satisfaction also indicated that the observation group had significantly higher satisfaction than the control group(P<0.05).Conclusion:The work process-based practical training teaching model for basic nursing skills in vocational colleges can improve students’assessment scores and enhance teaching satisfaction,demonstrating its value for wider application.

A Cross-sectional Study Assessing Predictors of Essential Medicines Prescribing Behavior Based on Information-motivation-behavioral Skills Model among County Hospitals in Anhui, China

Background： The self-consciousness and practicality of preferentially prescribed essential medicines （EMs） are not high enough in county hospitals. The purposes of this study were to use the information-motivation-behavioral skills （IM B） model to identify the predictors of essential medicines prescribing behavior （EMPB） among doctors and to examine the association between demographic variables, IMB, and EMPB. Methods： A cross-sectional study was carried out to assess predictive relationships among demographic variables and IM B model variables using an anonymous questionnaire administered in nine county hospitals of Anhui province. A structural equation model was constructed for the I MB model to test the instruments using analysis of moment structures 17.0. Results： A total of 732 participants completed the survey. The average age of the participants was 37.7 ± 8.9 years old （range： 22-67 years old）. The correct rate of information was 90.64%. The average scores of the motivation and behavioral skills were 45.46 a： 7.34 （hundred mark system： 75.77） and 19.92 ± 3.44 （hundred mark system： 79.68）, respectively. Approximately half（50.8%） of respondents reported that the proportion of EM prescription was below 60%. The final revised model indicated a good fit to the data （x^2/df= 4.146, goodness of fit index = 0.948, comparative fit index = 0.938, root mean square error of approximation = 0.066）. More work experience （β = 0.153, P 〈 0.001 ） and behavioral skills （β = 0.449, P 〈 0.001 ） predicted more EMPB. Higher income predicted less information （β = -0.197, P 〈 0.001） and motivation （β =0.204, P 〈 0.001 ）. Behavioral skills were positively predicted by information （β = 0.135, P 〈 0.001 ） and motivation （β = 0.742, P 〈 0.001 ）. Conclusion： The present study predicted some factors of EMPB, and specified the relationships among the model variables. The utilization rate of EM was not high enough. Motivation and behavior skills were crucial factors affecting EMPB. The influence of demographic variables, such as income and work experience, on EMPB should be fully appreciated. Comprehensive intervention measures should be implemented from multiple perspectives.

ICARE Model:Learning Model Organization That Based on Work Skills Through Saori Weaving for Special Needs Children

Purpose:(1)Study the current state and needs of learning management,focusing on work skills through Saori weaving for special needs children;(2)Develop a learning management model focusing on work skills;(3)Develop a teacher-centered learning management approach through the use of Saori weaving for special needs children;(4)Study the effectiveness of the learning management model that focuses on working with special children.Research&Development Research Results:(1)The current state and needs of learning management focused on work skills through Saori weaving for special children;(2)The learning management model emphasizing for special children is four steps:a.prepare the actual context;b.set goals;c.plan and execute;d.monitoring;and Evaluatio Saori Weaving Class has five details:(1)Inspire:I(Explain:Inspired to work for success);(2)Choose:C(Explain:Choose what you like before you can see the future do it);(3)Aim&Act:A(Explain:Work with a happy goal that has set);(4)Reflect on learning:R(Explain:Reflect on learning);(5)Experiential-Based Learning Measure by concluding:ICARE Model.The results of teacher development on learning management focused on working skills:(1)Teachers with average scores after training,35.09%was 77.98%;(2)22 trainers were able to develop a skill management plan in the 21st century at the best evaluated in 73.33%and eight persons respectively in good or 26.67%.(3)The results of the study on the effectiveness of the model showed that the extra children had a higher grade of Saori weaving.After class,75.49%were higher than the standard set of 70%and the students were satisfied with Saori weaving as the most levels.

Triptych Knowledge—Skills—Payroll and Business Performance: Application of an Operational Model for an Accounting Rating of the Human Capital in the Area of Distribution

The human capital’s accounting could allow companies to better manage the acquired knowledge and the skills developed by the employees when they join the firm.An operational model,suitable for a business enterprise’s HR manager and validated by its headboard,needs to include the employees’expertise and skills relative to their“cost”for the employer—the wage bill—and an assessment of the commercial performance.The human capital’s valuation includes methodological issues.Besides,the notion of human capital seems hardly understandable as a whole:The human capital gathers nevertheless components,such as knowledge—skills for which a first valuation can be proposed to test an accounting evaluation model for the operational human capital.In a perspective of a responsible management and a good HR policy,the method used must be able to better manage the knowledge and the competences employees acquired by accompanying them with the appropriate human resource management practices.This paper aims to show that the accounting valuation of human capital can become a tool in order to manage the knowledge and skills acquired and able to support a company’s human resources policy while being useful to its commercial performance—here in the distribution sector.In a research-intervention frame led in a responsible group,we use a model based on a triptych—wage bill,knowledge,and skills—to evaluate the human capital’s accounting,with an analytical highlight on the components measurement of the used“knowledge”and“skills”indexes in particular.A reflection on the operational model’s enrichment is proposed.

Contribution of the MERISE-Type Conceptual Data Model to the Construction of Monitoring and Evaluation Indicators of the Effectiveness of Training in Relation to the Needs of the Labor Market in the Republic of Congo

This study proposes the use of the MERISE conceptual data model to create indicators for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of vocational training in the Republic of Congo. The importance of MERISE for structuring and analyzing data is underlined, as it enables the measurement of the adequacy between training and the needs of the labor market. The innovation of the study lies in the adaptation of the MERISE model to the local context, the development of innovative indicators, and the integration of a participatory approach including all relevant stakeholders. Contextual adaptation and local innovation: The study suggests adapting MERISE to the specific context of the Republic of Congo, considering the local particularities of the labor market. Development of innovative indicators and new measurement tools: It proposes creating indicators to assess skills matching and employer satisfaction, which are crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of vocational training. Participatory approach and inclusion of stakeholders: The study emphasizes actively involving training centers, employers, and recruitment agencies in the evaluation process. This participatory approach ensures that the perspectives of all stakeholders are considered, leading to more relevant and practical outcomes. Using the MERISE model allows for: • Rigorous data structuring, organization, and standardization: Clearly defining entities and relationships facilitates data organization and standardization, crucial for effective data analysis. • Facilitation of monitoring, analysis, and relevant indicators: Developing both quantitative and qualitative indicators helps measure the effectiveness of training in relation to the labor market, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation. • Improved communication and common language: By providing a common language for different stakeholders, MERISE enhances communication and collaboration, ensuring that all parties have a shared understanding. The study’s approach and contribution to existing research lie in: • Structured theoretical and practical framework and holistic approach: The study offers a structured framework for data collection and analysis, covering both quantitative and qualitative aspects, thus providing a comprehensive view of the training system. • Reproducible methodology and international comparison: The proposed methodology can be replicated in other contexts, facilitating international comparison and the adoption of best practices. • Extension of knowledge and new perspective: By integrating a participatory approach and developing indicators adapted to local needs, the study extends existing research and offers new perspectives on vocational training evaluation.

Exploring International Media and Information Literacy Initiatives: Insights From DW Akademie’s MIL Model

Media and Information Literacy(MIL)is one of the most important topics in today’s mediatized world.Under the leadership of United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO),many international organizations in the world,as foreign donors,annually announce many projects and grants for the promotion and development of the field of MIL in the countries of the world.One of the main actors of this movement is DW Akademie with different media and MIL projects several countries of the world.This research paper delves into the role of DW Akademie’s MIL model in shaping a media-savvy generation.The study explores the theoretical underpinnings and practical applications of Deutsche Welle(DW)Akademie’s MIL model,analysing its effectiveness in fostering media literacy skills.The research employs a multi-faceted approach,incorporating case studies to assess the model’s impact across diverse demographics.The paper also considers the model’s alignment with global educational policies and proposes recommendations for its integration into broader frameworks.By investigating DW Akademie’s MIL model,this research contributes to the ongoing discourse on media literacy education,providing valuable insights for educators,policymakers,and researchers.The findings offer a nuanced understanding of the model’s position in cultivating a media-savvy generation poised to navigate the complexities of the information age.

Analysis on Application of Pragmatic Translation Skill Structure Model in Translation Teaching

As the core content of pragmatic translation teaching research,pragmatic translation skill is closely correlated with translation technique and operation field.Viewed from the current English teaching situation in colleges and universities,translation skill is not cultivated as an independent language competence.Moreover,its research is insufficient.On account of this,the author first gives an introduction to pragmatic translation skill and pragmatic translation skill structure model in this paper.On this basis,the author also analyzes the application of pragmatic translation skill structure model in translation teaching.

Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

Marine ecosystem dynamic models(MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization(PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An effi cient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the effi ciency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fi t of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confi dence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientifi c and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

Implications from Subseasonal Prediction Skills of the Prolonged Heavy Snow Event over Southern China in Early 2008

An exceptionally prolonged heavy snow event(PHSE)occurred in southern China from 10 January to 3 February 2008,which caused considerable economic losses and many casualties.To what extent any dynamical model can predict such an extreme event is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation.Here,we found the three S2S models(ECMWF,CMA1.0 and CMA2.0)can predict the distribution and intensity of precipitation and surface air temperature(SAT)associated with the PHSE at 10-day lead and 10−15-day lead,respectively.The success is attributed to the models’capability in forecasting the evolution of two important low-frequency systems in the tropics and mid-latitudes[the persistent Siberian High and the suppressed phase of the Madden−Julian Oscillation(MJO)],especially in the ECMWF model.However,beyond the 15-day lead,the three models show almost no skill in forecasting this PHSE.The bias in capturing the two critical circulation systems is responsible for the low skill in forecasting the 2008 PHSE beyond the 15-day lead.On one hand,the models cannot reproduce the persistence of the Siberian High,which results in the underestimation of negative SAT anomalies over southern China.On the other hand,the models cannot accurately capture the suppressed convection of the MJO,leading to weak anomalous southerly and moisture transport,and therefore the underestimation of precipitation over southern China.The Singular Value Decomposition(SVD)analyses between the critical circulation systems and SAT/precipitation over southern China shows a robust historical relation,indicating the fidelity of the predictability sources for both regular events and extreme events(e.g.,the 2008 PHSE).

Factors Limiting the Forecast Skill of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Model

In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.

Application of a hospital–community–family trinity rehabilitation nursing model combined with motor imagery therapy in patients with cerebral infarction

BACKGROUND Rehabilitation nursing is considered an indispensable part of the cerebral infarction treatment system.The hospital–community–family trinity rehabilitation nursing model can provide continuous nursing services across hospitals,communities,and families for patients.AIM To explore the application of a hospital–community–family rehabilitation nursing model combined with motor imagery therapy in patients with cerebral infarction.METHODS From January 2021 to December 2021,88 patients with cerebral infarction were divided into a study(n=44)and a control(n=44)group using a simple random number table.The control group received routine nursing and motor imagery therapy.The study group was given hospital–community–family trinity rehabilitation nursing based on the control group.Motor function(FMA),balance ability(BBS),activities of daily living(BI),quality of life(SS-QOL),activation status of the contralateral primary sensorimotor cortical area to the affected side,and nursing satisfaction were evaluated before and after intervention in both groups.RESULTS Before intervention,FMA and BBS were similar(P>0.05).After 6 months’intervention,FMA and BBS were significantly higher in the study than in the control group(both P<0.05).Before intervention,BI and SS-QOL scores were not different between the study and control group(P>0.05).However,after 6months’intervention,BI and SS-QOL were higher in the study than in the control group(P<0.05).Before intervention,activation frequency and volume were similar between the study and the control group(P>0.05).After 6 months’intervention,the activation frequency and volume were higher in the study than in the control group(P<0.05).The reliability,empathy,reactivity,assurance,and tangibles scores for quality of nursing service were higher in the study than in the control group(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Combining a hospital–community–family trinity rehabilitation nursing model and motor imagery therapy enhances the motor function and balance ability of patients with cerebral infarction,improving their quality of life.

Parenting Skills Determinant in Preventing Adolescents’ Sexual Health Risk Behavior

Parenting skill is one of the crucial needs that parents must have in caring adolescents’ sexual health risk behavior. Present study aims to determine predictors of parenting skills in preventing adolescents’ sexual health risk behavior. A cross sectional study was conducted among adolescents’ parents who attended government health clinics in a semi-urban district, West Malaysia. Data were collected by systematic random sampling using validated questionnaire from eight government health clinics based on routine daily out-patient services. There were 386 respondents participated with 98.9% of response rate. Parental skill is categorized as appropriate or inappropriate based on Trans-Theoretical Model (TTM) staging. Eighteen independent variables were used: parental socioeconomic status, adolescent characteristic, parenting style, parent-adolescent communication, parental stress, perception on adolescent sexual risk, comfortable in discussing sexual issues, knowledge in sexual reproductive health (SRH) and knowledge in HIV/AIDS. Assessment of parenting skills using the TTM stage showed 139 respondents (36%) had inappropriate parenting skills, in which they were in pre contemplation, contemplation or preparedness stages, while 247 respondents (64%) showed appropriate parenting skills when they were in action and maintenance stages of TTM. Older parent, late adolescent, low parental education level, extended family living arrangement, comfortable in discussing sexual issues, good parent-adolescent communication and higher knowledge in HIV/AIDS were found significant in bivariate analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified older parent (AOR = 1.927, 95% CI = 1.889 - 1.966, p < 0.001), lower parental education (AOR = 2.394, 95% CI = 1.348 - 4.254, p = 0.003), comfortable in discussing sexual issues (AOR = 3.810, 95% CI = 1.622 - 8.948, p = 0.002), good parent-adolescent communication (AOR = 4.741, 95% CI = 2.478 - 9.071, p ≤ 0.001) and having higher knowledge on HIV/AIDS (AOR = 2.804, 95% CI = 1.528 - 5.147, p = 0.001) as significant predictors for appropriate parenting skills in preventing adolescent sexual health risk behavior. In conclusion, more than one third of parents were still not ready in preventing adolescent sexual risk behavior. Targeting the young parents and those having difficulty in communicating sexual issues with theirs adolescents should be emphasized in early intervention program for parents. Self-assessment using TTM stage questionnaire will help parents to identify their parenting skills in preventing adolescent sexual health risk behavior.

NARCCAP Model Skill and Bias for the Southeast United States

This paper investigates dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) for two sub-regions of the Southeast United States. A suite of four statistical measures were used to assess model skill and biases were presented in hindcasting daily minimum and maximum temperature and mean precipitation during a historical reference period, 1970-1999. Most models demonstrated high skill for temperature during the historical period. Two outliers included two RCMs run using the Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Lab (GFDL) model as their lateral boundary conditions;these models suffered from a cold maximum temperature bias. Improvement with GFDL-based projections of maximum temperature was noted from May through November when they ran with observed seasurface conditions (GFDL-timeslice), particularly for the east sub-region. Precipitation skill proved mixed-relatively high when measured using a probability density function overlap measurement or the index of agreement, but relatively low when measured with root-mean square error or mean absolute error, because several models overestimated the frequency of extreme precipitation events.

Investigating the ENSO prediction skills of the Beijing Climate Center climate prediction system version 2

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)ensemble prediction skills of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)climate prediction system version 2(BCC-CPS2)are examined for the period from 1991 to 2018.The upper-limit ENSO predictability of this system is quantified by measuring its“potential”predictability using information-based metrics,whereas the actual prediction skill is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic skill measures.Results show that:(1)In general,the current operational BCC model achieves an effective 10-month lead predictability for ENSO.Moreover,prediction skills are up to 10–11 months for the warm and cold ENSO phases,while the normal phase has a prediction skill of just 6 months.(2)Similar to previous results of the intermediate coupled models,the relative entropy(RE)with a dominating ENSO signal component can more effectively quantify correlation-based prediction skills compared to the predictive information(PI)and the predictive power(PP).(3)An evaluation of the signal-dependent feature of the prediction skill scores suggests the relationship between the“Spring predictability barrier(SPB)”of ENSO prediction and the weak ENSO signal phase during boreal spring and early summer.

Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter Monsoon

The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones and Storms over the Southwestern Indian Ocean Region Using the Generalized Linear Models

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.

用T4C模式培养高阶能力:对杜威教学法的重建

约翰·杜威的五步教学法在教育领域具有重要意义。本研究重新审视了杜威的五步教学法,强调该教学法忽视的杜威哲学中的要素:民主、共同体中的交流与合作、对工具的使用、对结果的反思,以及最终作品的产生和共同体的改善。本文通过深入研究杜威著作,结合其中蕴含的其他重要要素提出了T4C模式。T4C模式强调个体的探究性学习(C1代表批判性思维和问题解决,杜威称之为反思性思维或实践)是在共同体中利用工具(Tools,如概念、技术等)以合作(C2)和交流(C3)的方式开展的。这种探究性学习的预期结果是获得创造性的新体验和新工具(C4)。T4C模式为现代社会所迫切需要的工具使用能力、批判性思维、交流能力、合作能力和创新能力等高阶能力,提供了培养框架,其本质在于用高阶能力培养高阶能力,有助于实现杜威社会政治理想中民主与教育的根本关联。