Effects of Initial and Boundary Conditions on Heavy Rainfall Simulation over the Yellow Sea and the Korean Peninsula:Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP Analysis Data Effects and Verification with Dropsonde Observation

This study evaluated the simulation performance of mesoscale convective system(MCS)-induced precipitation,focusing on three selected cases that originated from the Yellow Sea and propagated toward the Korean Peninsula.The evaluation was conducted for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)analysis data,as well as the simulation result using them as initial and lateral boundary conditions for the Weather Research and Forecasting model.Particularly,temperature and humidity profiles from 3D dropsonde observations from the National Center for Meteorological Science of the Korea Meteorological Administration served as validation data.Results showed that the ECMWF analysis consistently had smaller errors compared to the NCEP analysis,which exhibited a cold and dry bias in the lower levels below 850 hPa.The model,in terms of the precipitation simulations,particularly for high-intensity precipitation over the Yellow Sea,demonstrated higher accuracy when applying ECMWF analysis data as the initial condition.This advantage also positively influenced the simulation of rainfall events on the Korean Peninsula by reasonably inducing convective-favorable thermodynamic features(i.e.,warm and humid lower-level atmosphere)over the Yellow Sea.In conclusion,this study provides specific information about two global analysis datasets and their impacts on MCS-induced heavy rainfall simulation by employing dropsonde observation data.Furthermore,it suggests the need to enhance the initial field for MCS-induced heavy rainfall simulation and the applicability of assimilating dropsonde data for this purpose in the future.

Periorbital purpura can be the only initial symptom of primary light chain amyloidosis:A case report

BACKGROUND Primary light chain amyloidosis is a rare and complex disease with complex clinical features and is highly susceptible to misdiagnosis and underdiagnosis in the early stages.CASE SUMMARY We report a case of a 47-year-old female patient whose only initial symptom was periorbital purpura,which was not taken seriously enough.As the disease progressed,pleural effusion gradually appeared,and after systematic diagnosis and treatment,she was diagnosed with“primary light chain amyloidosis”.She achieved rapid hematological remission after treatment with a daratumumab+bortezomib+cyclophosphamide+dexamethasone regimen.CONCLUSION Periorbital purpura can be the only initial symptom of primary light chain amyloidosis;we should pay attention to the cases where the initial clinical symptoms are only periorbital purpura.

Key Deviation Analysis of Initial Fields on Ensemble Forecast in South China During the Rainfall Event on May 21,2020

Extreme rainfall is common from May to October in south China.This study investigates the key deviation of initial fields on ensemble forecast of a persistent heavy rainfall event from May 20 to 22,2020 in Guangdong Province,south China by comparing ensemble members with different performances.Based on the rainfall distribution and pattern,two types are selected for analysis compared with the observed precipitation.Through the comparison of the thermal and dynamic fields in the middle and lower layers,it can be found that the thermal difference between the middle and lower layers was an important factor which led to the deviation of precipitation distribution.The dynamic factors also have some effects on the precipitation area although they were not as important as the thermal factors in this case.Correlating accumulated precipitation with atmospheric state variables further corroborates the above conclusion.This study suggests that the uncertainty of the thermal and dynamic factors in the numerical model can have a strong impact on the quantitative skills of heavy rainfall forecasts.

Numerical Investigation on the Initiation Mechanism of Debris-Flow under Rainfall

Rainfall is an important factor to trigger the debris flow.Numerical simulation on the responses of slopes and the initiation of debris flow under rainfall was processed by using the software FLAC2D based on the soil parameters in Weijia Gully,Beichuan County,Sichuan Province,China.The effects of the slope angle,rainfall intensity,soil parameters on the developments of the stress and pore pressure and deformation of the slope were studied.It indicates that large displacements of the slope are mainly located near the slope toe.With the increase of the rainfall intensity the stability of the slope decreases and so the debris-flow is easy to occur.

Experimental study on the moving characteristics of fine grains in wide grading unconsolidated soil under heavy rainfall

The initiation mechanism of debris flow is regarded as the key step in understanding the debrisflow processes of occurrence, development and damage. Moreover, migration, accumulation and blocking effects of fine particles in soil will lead to soil failure and then develop into debris flow. Based on this hypothesis and considering the three factors of slope gradient, rainfall duration and rainfall intensity, 16 flume experiments were designed using the method of orthogonal design and completed in a laboratory. Particle composition changes in slope toe, volumetric water content, fine particle movement characteristics and soil failure mechanism were analyzed and understood as follows: the soil has complex, random and unstable structures, which causes remarkable pore characteristics of poor connectivity, non-uniformity and easy variation. The major factors that influence fine particle migration are rainfall intensity and slope. Rainfall intensity dominates particle movement, whereby high intensity rainfall induces a large number of mass movement and sharp fluctuation, causing more fine particles to accumulate at the steep slope toe. The slope toe plays an important role in water collection and fine particleaccumulation. Both fine particle migration and coarse particle movement appears similar fluctuation. Fine particle migration is interrupted in unconnected pores, causing pore blockage and fine particle accumulation, which then leads to the formation of a weak layer and further soil failure or collapses. Fine particle movement also causes debris flow formation in two ways: movement on the soil surface and migration inside the soil. The results verify the hypothesis that the function of fine particle migration in soil failure process is conducive for further understanding the formation mechanism of soil failure and debris flow initiation.

Climate Change, Variability and Rainfall Probability for Crop Planning in Few Districts of Central India

Trend and climate change were studied in annual rainfall data for the period of 62 years (1949-2010) of Sagar and 65 years (1945-2010) of Damoh districts of Bundelkhand region of central India. The analysis of weekly rainfall probability was also carried out at both the locations for field operations and crop planning in rainfed agricultural system for improving the farmer’s livelihood. Mean annual rainfall was 1233.8 mm with 32.6% variability for Sagar and 1225.1 mm with 30.3% variability for Damoh region. Sagar and Damoh region exhibited significant decreasing trend in the total amount of annual rainfall in the last 15 years (1996 to 2010). Also, both locations showed significant long-term decreasing trend in annual rainfall. Climate of both the regions have changed as in the recent 15 years annual rainfall had decreased by 156.4 and 310.7 mm at Sagar and Damoh from their long period average (LPA), respectively. The Initial and conditional rainfall probability analysis at Damoh reinforced that Initial probabilities {P (W)} of getting 10 mm rainfall per week was 76% during 25th (18-24 June) SMW. Thus, the seed bed preparation could be initiated during this week. Initial as well as conditional probability of wet week followed by wet week {P(W/W} of getting 20 mm rainfall was more than 80% during 27th SMW (2-7 July) in Sagar district. Therefore, this week is most suitable for sowing operation in this district.

基于人工智能软件ChatGPT分析物质初始状态

逻辑是一种基础性的思维工具,也是物理学和人工智能软件的共同基础,在物理分析中引入人工智能软件,可以形成新的观察视角和思考方向。在物理分析中,人工智能软件ChatGPT可以从大量文献中获取信息,并以可理解的方式解释有关概念和理论,它可以帮助加速研究进程、提高工作效率,促进物理学知识的传播和普及。在只有一个物质的情况下,该物质的速度是光速,该物质的质量是宇宙总质量,该物质的温度是宇宙热平衡温度,这是物质初始状态。基于ChatGPT分析了与物质初始状态有关的一系列问题。

城市不同下垫面降雨径流水质监测及特征研究

城市面源污染是仅次于农业面源污染的第二大非点源污染,也是影响城市水生态系统健康的重要原因。随着城市化的快速发展,下垫面改变导致城市河流洪峰增大,河流污染加剧。基于沥青屋面、砖砌路面、油毡屋面和绿地四种典型城市下垫面的5场降雨径流监测试验资料,分析了不同下垫面条件下的降雨径流污染水平、径流水质变化特征和初始冲刷效应。结果表明:(1)4种下垫面的降雨径流总氮质量浓度均属于劣Ⅴ类水;四种下垫面的总磷污染程度相对较轻,沥青屋面、砖砌路面、油毡屋面和绿地的降雨径流总磷质量浓度优于Ⅳ类水的频率分别为80%、16%、88.46%和5.56%;沥青屋面、砖砌路面、油毡屋面和绿地的降雨径流总悬浮物质量浓度分布范围分别是7~798、15~569、10~871和44~378 mg/L。(2)总氮和总磷的径流污染水平排序为:砖砌路面>绿地>沥青屋面>油毡屋面;总悬浮物的径流污染水平排序为:绿地>砖砌路面>油毡屋面>沥青屋面。(3)中雨情景下各下垫面不同污染指标变化趋势差异较大,而小雨情景下受人为活动影响较大的下垫面的各污染指标浓度较高。(4)各下垫面污染物的初始冲刷强度排序均为:总悬浮物>总磷>总氮;各下垫面的初始冲刷强度排序为:沥青屋面>油毡屋面>砖砌路面>绿地。(5)沥青屋面和油毡屋面降雨径流中的总悬浮物和总磷具有较好的同源性,而砖砌路面降雨径流中的总磷与总氮和总悬浮物都具有较好的同源性。综合而言,各下垫面总氮和总悬浮物的场次降雨径流平均浓度远超于地表水Ⅴ类水质标准,会对城市水体造成污染,可根据不同下垫面的特点采取相应措施来降低污染物浓度。

飞机及分系统雷电效应标准及测试浅析

对国内外关军用及民用飞机平台、分系统及设备雷电标准进行分析,针对雷电直接效应和雷电间接效应的所有测试项目,详述每个测试项目的适用区域、波形要求、测试配置等。结合现有国内雷电设计验证标准及测试存在的不足,提出提升测试设备与试验验证技术匹配性、扩展军用标准测试领域、统一同军种同一平台要求等建议。通过对军用机载平台、设备及分系统关于雷电设计验证标准及测试的分析,为相关产品设计师及试验人员提供设计指标参考,明确产品关于雷电防护的设计要求及验证要求,做到有的放矢,提高设计费效比。

初始含水率和降雨能量对黑土团聚体溅蚀特征的影响

[目的]为明晰降雨能量和初始含水率对土壤团聚体溅蚀过程机制的影响。[方法]选取东北典型耕层黑土为研究对象,通过人工模拟降雨试验,探讨不同初始含水率、降雨能量和团聚体初始粒径的团粒溅蚀特征。[结果](1)4种初始粒径黑土团聚体的溅蚀量均在初始含水率4%时最大,其中初始粒径<0.25 mm团聚体溅蚀量是相同降雨能量下各粒径团聚体溅蚀量的1.21~5.50倍。随初始含水率的增加各初始粒级团聚体溅蚀量呈减小趋势,而初始含水率>25%后则呈增大现象。(2)4种初始粒径黑土团聚体的溅蚀量均随降雨能量的增加而增大。相较于降雨能量305 J/(m^(2)·h)(1 m)条件,当降雨能量增加至909 J/(m^(2)·h)(5 m)时,不同初始粒径团聚体溅蚀量分别增加15.37~20.70(<0.25 mm),52.30~417.60(0.25~1 mm),51.58~359.36(1~3 mm),68.73~777.99倍(3~5 mm)。不同初始粒径黑土团聚体溅蚀量存在明显的阈值,当降雨能量达到529 J/(m^(2)·h)(2 m)以上时,不同降雨能量梯度下的溅蚀量存在显著差异。(3)降雨能量是影响溅蚀量的关键因素。降雨能量对溅蚀量的直接效应为0.811,存在显著正向影响,且相关程度最高;初始含水率和团聚体初始粒径的直接效应分别为0.193和0.352,存在显著负向影响。[结论]研究结果可为东北黑土区坡面土壤侵蚀过程机制研究和土壤侵蚀机理模型构建提供科学依据。

“21.7”河南暴雨的集合敏感性分析

河南郑州“21.7”特大暴雨是中国近年来发生的一场严重气象灾害,对此暴雨事件的数值预报模式表现出较大的不确定性,对暴雨落区和降水强度的预测均存在偏差.目前,“21.7”河南暴雨的形成机理已经得到广泛研究,但针对其集合敏感性分析的研究却十分有限.集合敏感性分析是一种利用集合预报来估计模式预报对初始场敏感性的方法,可诊断极端天气过程的影响因子、对数值模式集合预报不确定性进行分析等.因此,针对“21.7”河南暴雨个例,利用WRFARW模式,结合集合初始条件与多物理过程以及物理过程扰动等方法,构建不同的区域模式集合预报.利用集合敏感性分析方法开展“21.7”河南暴雨的可预报性和影响该暴雨的因子分析.结果表明,“21.7”河南暴雨对初始条件的温度场、湿度场、风场和位势高度场扰动具有敏感性,增强郑州地区的气旋性环流、改变郑州上空的气温、降低郑州地区的气压、增强台风“烟花”的强度可以使此次暴雨的降水强度增强.本研究能够增进对“21.7”河南暴雨成因的理解,并改进集合预报.

紫外光引发制备PAA/CMC高吸水树脂及性能研究

以羧甲基纤维素钠(CMC)为骨架,通过紫外光引发聚合将单体丙烯酸(AA)接枝到CMC骨架上,合成PAA/CMC高吸水树脂。采用单因素实验法优化并确定了具有最高吸水能力的树脂的最佳制备条件。结果表明,合成树脂的最优条件为:CMC用量为0.05 g,AA质量浓度为0.48 g/mL,中和度为40%,引发剂和交联剂的用量分别为AA质量的0.3%和0.05%,反应时间55 min。所制备的高吸水树脂在蒸馏水中的最大吸水倍率为1281.21 g/g,在生理盐水中的最大吸水倍率为69.42 g/g。采用红外、热重以及扫描电镜对树脂的结构进行表征。结果表明,该制备方法成功合成了PAA/CMC高吸水树脂,其具有较好的热稳定性,树脂表面有明显的褶皱结构,具有吸水速率快、保水性好等特点。

城市面源污染的成因、影响因素及控制技术探析

在城市化扩张的大时代背景下,主要由人类住区和农业区的雨水径流引起的面源污染逐渐受到不同群体的关注。本文从城市面源污染的成因、影响因素和控制技术几个方面进行了介绍和总结。城市面源污染的形成是一个错综复杂、牵扯甚广的过程,需要从源头、过程和末端多角度考虑,工程措施和非工程措施多方面配合,因地制宜、多方位合作以实现对城市面源污染的综合治理。

初始含水率非均匀分布的无限边坡稳定性计算模型研究

降雨入渗模型与边坡稳定性分析相结合是分析降雨诱发浅层滑坡的有效方法。文章考虑初始含水率非均匀分布对稳定性的影响,结合已有文献提出一个初始含水率呈线性分布的无限边坡稳定性简化计算模型,并运用Mein-Larson入渗模型及数值模拟方法验证该模型的可行性和计算精度;讨论同一土质和坡度条件下,降雨强度p、含水率线性变化率k以及地表初始含水率θ0对模型计算精度的影响。结果表明:简化模型能够较为准确地描述恒定降雨入渗过程,并且适用于降雨强度大于土壤入渗能力时的无限边坡稳定性分析计算;采用简化模型进行稳定性计算,p相同时,k值的变化对入渗深度Z w的计算精度影响较为显著,而对安全系数F s计算精度的影响总体上不明显;对于给定土质和坡度的无限边坡,当θ0值取0.15、k值取0.07时,采用该模型计算Z w的精度最高;与严格的数值模拟方法相比,该文提出的简化模型公式较为简单、计算用时较少,计算效率得以提高。研究结果为降雨型滑坡的稳定性分析提供了借鉴和参考。

Convection Initiation of a Heavy Rainfall Event in the Coastal Metropolitan Region of Shanghai on the South Side of the Meiyu Front

Accurate prediction of the convection initiation(CI)in urban areas is still a challenge.A heavy rainfall event,missed by the 9-km regional operational modeling system,occurred in the coastal urban area of the Shanghai metropolitan region(SMR)in the late morning on 28 July 2020 on the warm side to the south of the Meiyu front.In this study,observational analyses and convection-permitting simulations with a resolution of 3 km were conducted to investigate the CI mechanism of this rainfall event.The results showed that the CI was due to the interaction of urban heat island(UHI),northwesterly outflows from the Meiyu front precipitation system(MFPS),and northeasterly sea winds.First,the UHI created a lifting condition producing adiabatic cooling and the vertical moisture transport in the urban region.Then,the mesolow generated by the UHI induced and enhanced local low-level convergence near the CI region and accelerated the northwesterly outflows and the northeasterly sea winds as they converged to the UHI.The convection was triggered as a result of the strengthened low-level convergence when the enhanced northwesterly outflows and northeasterly sea winds approached the updraft zone caused by the UHI center.Sensitivity experiments with either the urban area of the SMR removed or the MFPS suppressed further revealed that the enhancement of the low-level convergence was mainly contributed by the UHI.The outflows and sea winds transported cold and moist air to the CI region and partly offset the negative contribution of the urban drying effect to the low-level relative humidity to facilitate the development of the deep moist absolute unstable layer during the CI.In addition,the MFPS also contributed to the enhancement of the northeasterly sea winds by influencing the land–sea pressure contrast on the north of the SMR.

市域(郊)铁路与“地铁和轻轨”初期运营前安全评估规范性依据的差异化研究

城市轨道交通初期运营前安全评估是国家相关规范的强制要求,但是GB/T 42334.1-2023《城市轨道交通运营安全评估规范》系列只有3个部分,包括地铁和轻轨、单轨、有轨电车,因此还亟待补充市域(郊)铁路安全评估的相关规范。文章以滁州至南京城际铁路(滁州段)初期运营前安全评估为例,依据中华人民共和国交通运输部发布的《城市轨道交通初期运营前安全评估规范》(交办运[2023]56号),并结合项目各系统设计参数,借鉴国内先发城市的优秀做法,在参考“地铁和轻轨”运营前安全评估规范基础上,全面梳理出差异部分,通过专家评审,形成专题报告,经相关部门批复,作为项目初期运营前安全评估的依据,暂时填补国内市域(郊)铁路在初期运营前安全评估依据方面的空白。

城市画像下大城市初雨污染治理策略分析

初雨污染作为河道水质恶化的主要原因之一,是我国许多城市尤其是一些大城市水环境治理中亟待解决的重大难题。详细阐述了国外典型大城市东京、纽约、伦敦、巴黎、柏林和国内典型大城市北京、广州、深圳、上海初雨污染的现状和管控措施。将调研城市的数据分为基本属性数据、措施偏好数据、服务偏好数据,并聚焦源头、过程、末端等重要环节,针对不同类型下大城市选择的初雨污染治理模式,开展了自然禀赋、降雨特征、面源污染特征、河道水环境等情况评估,形成城市的基础画像,在此基础上重点对比分析了典型大城市与初雨污染治理模式之间的相关性,以期为大城市初雨污染治理策略研究提供支撑。

Heavy Rainfall Ensemble Prediction:Initial Condition Perturbation vs Multi-Physics Perturbation

Mesoscale ensemble is an encouraging technology for improving the accuracy of heavy rainfall predictions. Occurrences of heavy rainfall are closely related to convective instability and topography. In mid-latitudes, perturbed initial fields for medium-range weather forecasts are often configured to focus on the baroclinic instability rather than the convective instability. Thus, alternative approaches to generate initial perturba- tions need to be developed to accommodate the uncertainty of the convective instability. In this paper, an initial condition perturbation approach to mesoscale heavy rainfall ensemble prediction, named as Different Physics Mode Method （DPMM）, is presented in detail. Based on the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model MM5, an ensemble prediction experiment on a typical heavy rainfall event in South China is carried out by using the DPMM, and the structure of the initial condition perturbation is analyzed. Further, the DPMM ensem- ble prediction is compared with a multi-physics ensemble prediction, and the results show that the initial perturbation fields from the DPMM have a reasonable mesoscale circulation structure and could reflect the prediction uncertainty in the sensitive regions of convective instability. An evaluation of the DPMM ini- tial condition perturbation indicates that the DPMM method produces better ensemble members than the multi-physics perturbation method, and can significantly improve the precipitation forecast than the control non-ensemble run.

Field observation of debris-flow activities in the initiation area of the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China

The Jiangjia Gully, which is located in Dongchuan District, Yunnan Province, China, is a watershed prone to debris flows and has long-term recorded data of debris-flow occurrence. However, the initiation mechanism has mainly been studied by experiments in this watershed. To further reveal debris-flow formation mechanism in the Jiangjia Gully, debris-flow activities in the initiation zone were observed with hand-held video cameras in the summer of 2016 and 2017. In these two years, six debris-flow events were triggered in Menqian Gully, a major tributary of the Jiangjia Gully, while debrisflow activities in some sub-watersheds of Menqian Gully were recorded with video cameras in four events. The video recording shows that landslides constituted an important source for sediment supply in debris flow. Some landslides directly evolved into debris flows, while the others released sediment into rills and channels, where debris flows were generated for sediment entrainment by water flow. Therefore, debris-flow occurrence in the Jiangjia Gully is influenced both by infiltration-dominated processes and by runoff-dominated processes. In addition, rainfall data from four gauges installed in Menqian Gully were analyzed using mean intensity(I), duration(D), peak 10-minute rainfall(R10min) and antecedent rainfall(AR) up to 15 days prior to peak 10-minute rainfall. It reveals that debris-flow triggering events can be discriminated from nontriggering events either by an I-D threshold or by an R10min-AR threshold. However, false alarms can be greatly reduced if these two kinds of thresholds are used together. Moreover, behaviors including intermittency of debris flow, variance in moisture content and volume among surges, and coalescence of multiple surges by temporary damming were observed, indicating the complexity of debris-flow initiation processes. These findings are expected to enhance our knowledge on debris-flow formation mechanism in regions with similar environmental settings.

Effect of mulching with maize straw on water infiltration and soil loss at different initial soil moistures in a rainfall simulation

Mulching and soil water content(SWC) have a significant impact on soil erosion,and this study investigated the effect of straw mulching on water infiltration and soil loss under different initial SWC treatments in a rainfall simulation experiment conducted in northern China.Increasing initial SWC can decrease soil infiltration and increase soil loss.During an 80 mm rainfall event(80 mm·h–1for 60 min),8%,12% and 16% initial SWC treatments decreased cumulative infiltration by8.7%,42.5% and 58.1%,and increased total sediment yield by 44,146 and 315 g,respectively,compared to 4%initial SWC.However,in all the straw mulching treatments,there was no significant difference in stable infiltration rate between the different initial SWC treatments.For all initial SWC treatments,straw mulching of30% or more significantly enhanced water infiltration by over 31% and reduced soil loss by over 49%,compared to the unmulched treatment.Taking into consideration the performance of no-till planters,a maize straw mulching rate of 30% to 60%(1400–3100 kg·hm–2) is recommended for the conservation of water and soil in northern China.