Progress of MJO Prediction at CMA from Phase I to Phase II of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project

As one of the participants in the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)has adopted several model versions to participate in the S2S Project.This study evaluates the models’capability to simulate and predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).Three versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)are used to conduct historical simulations and re-forecast experiments(referred to as EXP1,EXP1-M,and EXP2,respectively).In simulating MJO characteristics,the newly-developed high-resolution BCC-CSM outperforms its predecessors.In terms of MJO prediction,the useful prediction skill of the MJO index is enhanced from 15 days in EXP1 to 22 days in EXP1-M,and further to 24 days in EXP2.Within the first forecast week,the better initial condition in EXP2 largely contributes to the enhancement of MJO prediction skill.However,during forecast weeks 2–3,EXP2 shows little advantage compared with EXP1-M because the increased skill at MJO initial phases 6–7 is largely offset by the degraded skill at MJO initial phases 2–3.Particularly at initial phases 2–3,EXP1-M skillfully captures the wind field and Kelvin-wave response to MJO convection,leading to the highest prediction skill of the MJO.Our results reveal that,during the participation of the CMA models in the S2S Project,both the improved model initialization and updated model physics played positive roles in improving MJO prediction.Future efforts should focus on improving the model physics to better simulate MJO convection over the Maritime Continent and further improve MJO prediction at long lead times.

Effects of initial δ phase(Ni_3Nb) on hot tensile deformation behaviors and material constants of Ni-based superalloy

Effects of initial δ phase（Ni_3Nb） on the hot tensile deformation behaviors and material constants of a Ni-based superalloy were investigated over wide ranges of strain rate and deformation temperature. It is found that the true stress-true strain curves exhibit peak stress at a small strain, and the peak stress increases with the increase of initial δ phase. After the peak stress, initial δ phase promotes the dynamic softening behaviors, resulting in the decreased flow stress. An improved Arrhenius constitutive model is proposed to consider the synthetical effects of initial δ phase, deformation temperature, strain rate, and strain on hot deformation behaviors. In the improved model, material constants are expressed as the functions of the content of initial δ phase and strain. A good agreement between the predicted and measured results indicates that the improved Arrhenius constitutive model can well describe hot deformation behaviors of the studied Ni-based superalloy.

Effect of atomic initial phase difference on spontaneous emission of an atom embedded in photonic crystal

We investigate the effect of initial phase difference between the two excited states of a V-type three-level atom on its steady state behaviour of spontaneous emission. A modified density of modes is introduced to calculate the spontaneous emission spectra in photonic crystal. Spectra in free space are also shown to compare with that in photonic crystal with different relative positions of the excited levels from upper band-edge frequency. It is found that the initial phase difference plays an important role in the quantum interference property between the two decay channels. For a zero initial phase, destructive property is presented in the spectra. With the increase of initial phase difference, quantum interference between the two decay channels from upper levels to ground level turns to be constructive. Furthermore, we give an interpretation for the property of these spectra.

Microscopic Evidence of Destroying the Order of Magnetic Sequence in CuO_2 Chain by Zn, Ni, Co Doping in Sr_(14)Cu_(24)O_(41) Compound

The Zn2＋, Ni2＋ and Co3＋ doped Sr14Cu24041 compounds were synthesized by standard solid state method. X-ray diffraction results show that the changes in lattice parameters are very small. Selected area electron diffraction patterns （EDPs） show that the diffraction spots corresponding to the CuO2 chain substructure are extended to streaks along a＊ and b＊ directions for all the samples, while the diffraction spots produced merely by the Cu203 ladder substructure are still very sharp. This means that the periodicities of chains in a＊ and b＊ directions are partially destroyed upon doping ofZn, Ni and Co due to that the initial phase of each chain becomes a random variable. The temperature dependence of magnetic properties was measured for every sample. And the number of dimers in CuO2 chain per formula unit （f.u.） and dimer coupling constant are obtained by fitting the temperature dependence of the magnetic susceptibility. It is found that the degree of initial phase disorder is related to the order degree of magnetic sequence in CuO2 chain. For the un-doped sample, the decoupling of dimers is weak, the magnetic sequence is slightly destroyed, and the streaks in EDP are also very weak, which implies the degree of initial phase disorder in CuO2 chain is very low. When Zn2~ and Ni2＋ ions are doped, the number of dimers per f.u. decreases, and the intensity of diffraction streaks increases in comparison with the corresponding spots. Furthermore, when the high spin magnetic ions Co3＋ are doped, the number of holes in Sr14Cu24041 decreases, the magnetic sequence is destroyed very seriously, and the spots in EDP are extended to streaks almost completely. The phenomenon that the diffraction spots ofCuO2 chain extend to streaks in EDP appears as evidence that the magnetic sequence in the CuO2 chain is destroyed by doping of Zn, Ni, Co.

Dispersion and attenuation of torsional wave in a viscoelastic layer bonded between a layer and a half-space of dry sandy media

Propagation of a torsional wave in a doubly-layered half-space structure of an initially stressed heterogeneous viscoelastic layer sandwiched between a layer and a half-space of heterogeneous dry sandy media is studied. A closed form complex expression for the velocity profile is obtained under effective boundary conditions. The real part of the complex expression provides a dispersion equation, and the imaginary part yields a damping equation. The derived dispersion and damped equations are in well agreement with the classical Love wave condition. In addition, to study the effect of the dissipation factor, the attenuation coefficient, the sandy parameters, the initial stress, the hetero- geneity parameters, and the thickness ratio parameter, some noteworthy contemplations are made by numerical calculations and graphical visuals. The results of this paper may present a deeper insight into the behaviour of propagation phenomena in heterogeneous viscoelastic and heterogeneous dry sandy materials that can provide a theoretical guide for the design and optimization in the field of earthquake engineering. The study also reveals that the presence of a damping part due to viscoelasticity affects the torsional wave propagation significantly.

Cauchy-Poisson Problem for a Two-layer Fluid with an Inertial Surface

This paper is concerned with the generation of waves due to initial disturbances at the upper surface of a two-layer fluid, as the upper layer is covered by an inertial surface and the lower layer extends infinitely downwards. The inertial surface is composed of thin but uniform distribution of non-interacting material. In the mathematical analysis, the Fourier and Laplace transform techniques have been utilized to obtain the depressions of the inertial surface and the interface in the form of infinite integrals. For initial disturbances concentrated at a point, the inertial surface depression and the interface depression are evaluated asymptotically for large time and distance by using the method of stationary phase. They are also depicted graphically for two types of initial disturbances and appropriate conclusions are made.

Three-phase 2D model of long-rod penetrating semi-infinite metal targets considering variation in nose shape

The nose shape effect on long-rod penetration was investigated by establishing numerical 2D models with different original nose shapes.The variations in nose shapes and the mass erosion rate of the rods in the transient phase,primary penetration phase,and secondary penetration phase were adequately analyzed by two dimensionless parameters,i.e.,the nose shape factor N* and the diameter ratio of the rod nose and shank n.In general,N*,η and the mass erosion rate of the rod vary distinctly in different phases,i.e.,unsteady in the initial transient and the secondary penetration phases,and quasi-steady in the primary penetration phase.Furthermore,a relationship between the mass erosion of the rod and the variation in the nose shape was established.A three-phase 2D model of long-rod penetration was further constructed by considering the variations in nose shape.This research may provide a reference to improve the theoretical model of long-rod penetration.

Orbital rendezvous performance comparison of differential geometric and ZEM/ZEV feedback guidance algorithms

In this paper,the performance of two distinct classes of feedback guidance algorithms is evaluated for a spacecraft rendezvous problem utilizing a continuous low-thrust propulsion system.They are the DG(Differential Geometric)and ZEM/ZEV(Zero-Effort-Miss/Zero-Effort-Velocity)feedback guidance algorithms.Even though these two guidance algorithms do not attempt to minimize the onboard fuel consumption orΔV directly,theΔV requirement is used as a measure of their orbital rendezvous performance for various initial conditions and a wide range of the rendezvous time(within less than one orbital period of the target vehicle).For the DG guidance,the effects of its guidance parameter and terminal time on the closed-loop performance are evaluated by numerical simulations.For the ZEM/ZEV guidance,its nearfuel-optimality is further demonstrated for a rapid,short-range orbital rendezvous,in comparison with the corresponding open-loop optimal solutions.Furthermore,the poorΔV performance of the ZEM/ZEV guidance for a slow,long-range orbital rendezvous is remedied by simply adding an initial drift phase.The ZEM/ZEV feedback guidance algorithm and its appropriate variants are then shown to be a simple practical solution to a non-impulsive rendezvous problem,in comparison with the DG guidance as well as the open-loop optimal guidance.

Double resonance in star networks of bistable units with disordered signals

It has been found that a hub node is better able to amplify weak external signals than leaf nodes in star networks.But hub-enhanced amplification is only attained by a single hub node and is limited to weak coupling strength.We show here that random initial phases in external weak signals do not affect the hub-enhanced amplification at weak coupling strength.Instead,they can improve the responses of all the leaf nodes to external signals at large coupling strength,resulting in a double resonance-like signal amplification.We use a reduced model to analyze the influence of the star structure and random initial phases on the emergence of double resonance.