Monitoring seismicity in the southern Sichuan Basin using a machine learning workflow

Monitoring seismicity in real time provides significant benefits for timely earthquake warning and analyses.In this study,we propose an automatic workflow based on machine learning(ML)to monitor seismicity in the southern Sichuan Basin of China.This workflow includes coherent event detection,phase picking,and earthquake location using three-component data from a seismic network.By combining Phase Net,we develop an ML-based earthquake location model called Phase Loc,to conduct real-time monitoring of the local seismicity.The approach allows us to use synthetic samples covering the entire study area to train Phase Loc,addressing the problems of insufficient data samples,imbalanced data distribution,and unreliable labels when training with observed data.We apply the trained model to observed data recorded in the southern Sichuan Basin,China,between September 2018 and March 2019.The results show that the average differences in latitude,longitude,and depth are 5.7 km,6.1 km,and 2 km,respectively,compared to the reference catalog.Phase Loc combines all available phase information to make fast and reliable predictions,even if only a few phases are detected and picked.The proposed workflow may help real-time seismic monitoring in other regions as well.

Potential of the Arkhangelsk seismic network for European Arctic monitoring

The Arkhangelsk Seismic Network(ASN)of the N.Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences,founded in 2003,includes 10 permanent seismic stations located on the coasts of the White,Barents,and Kara Seas and on the Arctic archipelagos of Novaya Zemlya,Franz Josef Land,and Severnaya Zemlya.The network is registered with the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks and the International Seismological Center.We used not only ASN data to process earthquakes but also the waveforms of various international seismic stations.The 13,000 seismic events were registered using ASN data for 2012-2022,and for 5,500 of them,we determined the parameters of the earthquake epicenters from the European Arctic.The spatial distribution of epicenters shows that the ASN monitors not only the main seismically active zones but also weak seismicity on the shelf of the Barents and Kara Seas.The representative magnitude of ASN was ML,rep=3.5.The level of microseismic noise has seasonal variations that affect the registration capabilities of each station included in the ASN and the overall sensitivity of the network as a whole.In summer,the sensitivity of the ASN decreased owing to the increasing microseismic and ambient noises,whereas in winter,the sensitivity of the ASN increased significantly because of the decrease.

Hcable for Time-Lapse Seismic Monitoring of Marine Carbon Capture and Storage

To ensure project safety and secure public support, an integrated and comprehensive monitoring program is needed within a carbon capture and storage(CCS) project. Monitoring can be done using many well-established techniques from various fields, and the seismic method proves to be the crucial one. This method is widely used to determine the CO_(2) distribution, image the plume development, and quantitatively estimate the concentration. Because both the CO_(2) distribution and the potential migration pathway can be spatially small scale, high resolution for seismic imaging is demanded. However, obtaining a high-resolution image of a subsurface structure in marine settings is difficult. Herein, we introduce the novel Hcable(Harrow-like cable system) technique, which may be applied to offshore CCS monitoring. This technique uses a highfrequency source(the dominant frequency>100 Hz) to generate seismic waves and a combination of a long cable and several short streamers to receive seismic waves. Ultrahigh-frequency seismic images are achieved through the processing of Hcable seismic data. Hcable is then applied in a case study to demonstrate its detailed characterization for small-scale structures. This work reveals that Hcable is a promising tool for timelapse seismic monitoring of oceanic CCS.

The AVO Effect of Formation Pressure on Time-Lapse Seismic Monitoring in Marine Carbon Dioxide Storage

The phase change of CO_(2) has a significant bearing on the siting, injection, and monitoring of storage. The phase state of CO_(2) is closely related to pressure. In the process of seismic exploration, the information of formation pressure can be response in the seismic data. Therefore, it is possible to monitor the formation pressure using time-lapse seismic method. Apart from formation pressure, the information of porosity and CO_(2) saturation can be reflected in the seismic data. Here, based on the actual situation of the work area, a rockphysical model is proposed to address the feasibility of time-lapse seismic monitoring during CO_(2) storage in the anisotropic formation. The model takes into account the formation pressure, variety minerals composition, fracture, fluid inhomogeneous distribution, and anisotropy caused by horizontal layering of rock layers(or oriented alignment of minerals). From the proposed rockphysical model and the well-logging, cores and geological data at the target layer, the variation of P-wave and S-wave velocity with formation pressure after CO_(2) injection is calculated. And so are the effects of porosity and CO_(2) saturation. Finally, from anisotropic exact reflection coefficient equation, the reflection coefficients under different formation pressures are calculated. It is proved that the reflection coefficient varies with pressure. Compared with CO_(2) saturation, the pressure has a greater effect on the reflection coefficient. Through the convolution model, the seismic record is calculated. The seismic record shows the difference with different formation pressure. At present, in the marine CO_(2) sequestration monitoring domain, there is no study involving the effect of formation pressure changes on seismic records in seafloor anisotropic formation. This study can provide a basis for the inversion of reservoir parameters in anisotropic seafloor CO_(2) reservoirs.

Monitoring the change in horizontal stress with multi-wave time-lapse seismic response based on nonlinear elasticity theory

Monitoring the change in horizontal stress from the geophysical data is a tough challenge, and it has a crucial impact on broad practical scenarios which involve reservoir exploration and development, carbon dioxide (CO_(2)) injection and storage, shallow surface prospecting and deep-earth structure description. The change in in-situ stress induced by hydrocarbon production and localized tectonic movements causes the changes in rock mechanic properties (e.g. wave velocities, density and anisotropy) and further causes the changes in seismic amplitudes, phases and travel times. In this study, the nonlinear elasticity theory that regards the rock skeleton (solid phase) and pore fluid as an effective whole is used to characterize the effect of horizontal principal stress on rock overall elastic properties and the stress-dependent anisotropy parameters are therefore formulated. Then the approximate P-wave, SV-wave and SH-wave angle-dependent reflection coefficient equations for the horizontal-stress-induced anisotropic media are proposed. It is shown that, on the different reflectors, the stress-induced relative changes in reflectivities (i.e., relative difference) of elastic parameters (i.e., P- and S-wave velocities and density) are much less than the changes in contrasts of anisotropy parameters. Therefore, the effects of stress change on the reflectivities of three elastic parameters are reasonably neglected to further propose an AVO inversion approach incorporating P-, SH- and SV-wave information to estimate the change in horizontal principal stress from the corresponding time-lapse seismic data. Compared with the existing methods, our method eliminates the need for man-made rock-physical or fitting parameters, providing more stable predictive power. 1D test illustrates that the estimated result from time-lapse P-wave reflection data shows the most reasonable agreement with the real model, while the estimated result from SH-wave reflection data shows the largest bias. 2D test illustrates the feasibility of the proposed inversion method for estimating the change in horizontal stress from P-wave time-lapse seismic data.

Active source monitoring at the Wenchuan fault zone:coseismic velocity change associated with aftershock event and its implication

With the improvement of seismic observation system, more and more observations indicate that earthquakes may cause seismic velocity change. However, the amplitude and spatial distribution of the velocity variation remains a controversial issue. Recent active source monitoring carried out adjacent to Wenchuan Fault Scientific Drilling （WFSD） revealed unambiguous coseismic velocity change associated with a local M8 5.5 earthquake. Here, we carry out forward modeling using two-dimensional spectral element method to further investigate the amplitude and spatial distribution of observed velocity change. The model is well constrained by results from seismic reflection and WFSD coring. Our model strongly suggests that the observed coseismic velocity change is localized within the fault zone with width of ~ 120 m rather than dynamic strong ground shaking. And a velocity decrease of -2.0 % within the fault zone is required to fit the observed travel time delay distribution, which coincides with rock mechanical experiment and theoretical modeling.

Slope Seismic Response Monitoring on the Aftershocks of the Wenchuan Earthquake in the Mianzhu Section

Previous investigations have shown that the seismic response of slopes during the Wenchuan earthquake was highly variable. The present study tries to give an answer to the question： Which are the main factors affecting the seismic response degree of slopes？ With the support of the China Geological Survey Bureau, we set 3 monitoring sections in Jiulong slope, Mianzhu city, China with the aim to record the site response of the slope during the affershoeks of the Wenehuan earthquake. After the Wenchuan earthquake, which happened on 12 May 2008, 30 aftershocks have been recorded in these monitoring points. We analyzed 11 records, with magnitudes ranging from ML = 4.6 to ML = 3.1. The amplification factors of the horizontal compound PGA and 3D compound PGA have been determined for the 3 points at different elevations on the slope. Results showed that the dynamic response of the slope on the earthquake was controlled by factors such as topography and the thickness of the Quaternary overburden.

Monitoring of velocity changes based on seismic ambient noise: A brief review and perspective

Over the past two decades,the development of the ambient noise cross-correlation technology has spawned the exploration of underground structures.In addition,ambient noise-based monitoring has emerged because of the feasibility of reconstructing the continuous Green’s functions.Investigating the physical properties of a subsurface medium by tracking changes in seismic wave velocity that do not depend on the occurrence of earthquakes or the continuity of artificial sources dramatically increases the possibility of researching the evolution of crustal deformation.In this article,we outline some state-of-the-art techniques for noise-based monitoring,including moving-window cross-spectral analysis,the stretching method,dynamic time wrapping,wavelet cross-spectrum analysis,and a combination of these measurement methods,with either a Bayesian least-squares inversion or the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method.We briefly state the principles underlying the different methods and their pros and cons.By elaborating on some typical noisebased monitoring applications,we show how this technique can be widely applied in different scenarios and adapted to multiples scales.We list classical applications,such as following earthquake-related co-and postseismic velocity changes,forecasting volcanic eruptions,and tracking external environmental forcing-generated transient changes.By monitoring cases having different targets at different scales,we point out the applicability of this technology for disaster prediction and early warning of small-scale reservoirs,landslides,and so forth.Finally,we conclude with some possible developments of noise-based monitoring at present and summarize some prospective research directions.To improve the temporal and spatial resolution of passive-source noise monitoring,we propose integrating different methods and seismic sources.Further interdisciplinary collaboration is indispensable for comprehensively interpreting the observed changes.

The Improvement of Earthquake Real-Time Monitoring System of Chinese National Digital Seismic Network

The earthquake real-time monitoring system of the Chinese National Digital Seismic Network has been in operation since"the Ninth Five-year Plan"period,and the stability of the system has been well tested.In recent years,with the continuous improvement of monitoring technology and increase of public demands,the original real-time monitoring system needs to be upgraded and improved in terms of timeliness,stability,accuracy and ease of operation.Therefore,by accessing a total of more than 1,000 seismic stations,reducing the seismic trigger threshold of the monitoring system,eliminating the false trigger stations and optimizing the seismic waveform display interface,the current earthquake monitoring demands can be satisfied on the basis of ensuring the stable operation of the system.

Applying real time seismic monitoring technology for slope stability assessment—An Indian opencast coal mine perspective

This paper outlines the results obtained from real time microseismic monitoring of an opencast coal mine in South India.The objective of the study is to investigate the stress changes within the rockmass along the slope due to underground mine development operation and their impact on the stability of the highwall slope.The installed microseismic systems recorded the seismic triggerings down toà2 moment magnitude.In general,most of the events recorded during the monitoring period are weak in seismic energy.The study adopts a simple and more reliable tool to characterize the seismically active zone for assessing the stability of the highwall in real time.The impact of underground working on the slope is studied on the basis of the seismic event impact contours and seismic clusters.During the monitoring period,it is observed that the intensity of the overall microseismic activity along the slope due to the mine development operations did not cause any adverse impact on the highwall stability.

Recent advances in earthquake monitoring I:Ongoing revolution of seismic instrumentation

Seismic networks have significantly improved in the last decade in terms of coverage density,data quality,and instrumental diversity.Moreover,revolutionary advances in ultra-dense seismic instruments,such as nodes and fiber-optic sensing technologies,have recently provided unprecedented high-resolution data for regional and local earthquake monitoring.Nodal arrays have characteristics such as easy installation and flexible apertures,but are limited in power efficiency and data storage and thus most suitable as temporary networks.Fiber-optic sensing techniques,including distributed acoustic sensing,can be operated in real time with an in-house power supply and connected data storage,thereby exhibiting the potential of becoming next-generation permanent networks.Fiber-optic sensing techniques offer a powerful way of filling the observation gap particularly in submarine environments.Despite these technological advancements,various challenges remain.First,the data characteristics of fiber-optic sensing are still unclear.Second,it is challenging to construct software infrastructures to store,transfer,visualize,and process large amount of seismic data.Finally,innovative detection methods are required to exploit the potential of numerous channels.With improved knowledge about data characteristics,enhanced software infrastructures,and suitable data processing techniques,these innovations in seismic instrumentation could profoundly impact observational seismology.

A real-time AI-assisted seismic monitoring system based on new nodal stations with 4G telemetry and its application in the Yangbi M_(S) 6.4 aftershock monitoring in southwest China

A rapidly deployable dense seismic monitoring system which is capable of transmitting acquired data in real time and analyzing data automatically is crucial in seismic hazard mitigation after a major earthquake.However,it is rather difficult for current seismic nodal stations to transmit data in real time for an extended period of time,and it usually takes a great amount of time to process the acquired data manually.To monitor earthquakes in real time flexibly,we develop a mobile integrated seismic monitoring system consisting of newly developed nodal units with 4G telemetry and a real-time AI-assisted automatic data processing workflow.The integrated system is convenient for deployment and has been successfully applied in monitoring the aftershocks of the Yangbi M_(S) 6.4 earthquake occurred on May 21,2021 in Yangbi County,Dali,Yunnan in southwest China.The acquired seismic data are transmitted almost in real time through the 4G cellular network,and then processed automat-ically for event detection,positioning,magnitude calculation and source mechanism inversion.From tens of seconds to a couple of minutes at most,the final seismic attributes can be presented remotely to the end users through the integrated system.From May 27 to June 17,the real-time system has detected and located 7905 aftershocks in the Yangbi area before the internal batteries exhausted,far more than the catalog provided by China Earthquake Networks Center using the regional permanent stations.The initial application of this inte-grated real-time monitoring system is promising,and we anticipate the advent of a new era for Real-time Intelligent Array Seismology(RIAS),for better monitoring and understanding the subsurface dynamic pro-cesses caused by Earth's internal forces as well as anthropogenic activities.

Preface to the Special Issue on Advances in Seismic Exploration and Monitoring with Active Sources in China

Analyzing the information carriede by seismic waves is a major means for human beings to have an insight into the structure of the earth’s interior,and by using artificial seismic sources to excite seismic waves,we can obtain high-resolution images for the crustal and smaller scale medium.Artificial seismic exploration methods have been widely applied to fields such as

Reconstruction of earthquake hazard in regions of sparse seismic monitoring

Studying strong motion records and the spatial distribution of ground shaking is of great importance in understanding the underlying causes of damage in earthquakes. Many regions in the world are either not instrumented or are sparsely instrumented. As such, significant opportunities for motion-damage correlations are lost. Two recent and damaging earthquakes belong to the class of lost opportunities, namely the Kashmir （Pakistan） earthquake of October 2005 and the Yogyakarta （Indonesia） earthquake of May 2006. In this paper, an overview of the importance of supply and demand studies in earthquake-stricken regions is given, followed by two examples of investigative engineering seismology aimed at reconstructing the hazard from sparse data. The paper closes with a plea for responsible authorities to invest in seismic monitoring networks in the very near future.

Seismic modelling of tracked-vehicle signals for monitoring and verifi cation

To better understand characteristics of seismic signals of tracked vehicles measured when passing a sensor line,we numerically modelled force-pulse responses of a layered soil that is similar in its seismic properties to that found at the original measurement site.The vertical-force pulses from the road wheels rolling over the track elements are fitted to the measured ones.Single-pulse seismic waves vary with distance due to diff erent wave types,refl ections at layer boundaries,vehicle velocity and relative position of the left and right track elements.They are computed by a modelling program and superposed at sensor positions with the appropriate slant distance and time shift for each track element.These sum signals are in qualitative agreement with those from the original measurements.However,they are several magnitudes weaker and much smoother.Furthermore,higher frequencies are damped much less at larger distances.Due to the large variability of the sum signals,recognition of tracked-vehicle types exclusively through their seismic signals seems diffi cult.

Monitoring and Identification of the Seismically Isolated “Our Lady of Tears” Shrine in Syracuse

This paper describes the installation and management of the monitoring system of the “Our Lady of Tears Shrine” in Syracuse, whose dome is an imposing r.c. and prestressed r.c. structure of about 22,000 ton that was seismically isolated by flat sliding devices with hysteretic dampers. The monitoring system, representing an upgrading and improvement of an old system never made working, has some innovative features, because it allows to manage with the same dedicated hardware and software both the slow (thermal variations, relative humidity, wind direction and velocity) and the fast acquisitions (dynamic vibrations by wind and earthquake). The monitoring system was inserted among those structures maintained and controlled by the Seismic Observatory of Structures of the National Department of Civil Protection. Some records of low magnitude earthquakes allowed to validate the correct behaviour of the whole structure, as well as to make a dynamic identification of the complex construction and to calibrate a detailed finite element model of the Sanctuary, thus predicting isolators’ behaviour under design earthquake.

Seismic Health Monitoring of Foundations Using Artificial Neural Networks

Damage identification plays an important role in structural health monitoring systems. Despite variety in damage identification methods, little attention has been paid to the seismic damage identification of foundations. When shear walls serve as the lateral load resistance system of structures, foundations may subject to the high level of concentrated moment and shear forces. Consequently, they can experience severe damage. Since such damage is often internal and not visible, visual inspections cannot identify the location and the severity of damage. Therefore, a robust method is required for damage localization and quantification of foundations. According to the concept of performance-based seismic design of structures, the seismic behavior of foundations is considered as Force-Controlled. Therefore, for damage identification of foundation, internal forces should be estimated during ground motions. In this study, for real-time seismic damage detection of foundations, a method based on artificial neural networks was proposed. A feed-forward multilayer neural network with one hidden layer was selected to map input samples to output parameters. The lateral displacements of stories were considered as the input parameters of the neural network while moment and shear force demands at critical points of foundations were taken into account as the output parameters. In order to prepare well-distributed data sets for training the neural network, several nonlinear time history analyses were carried out. The proposed method was tested on the foundation of a five-story concrete shear wall building. The obtained results revealed that the proposed method was successfully estimated moment and shear force demands at the critical points of the foundation.

Study on the Determination of the Significant National Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions

The paper describes firstly the principles and scientific train of thought involved in determining the significant seismic monitoring and protection regions (SSMPR) in China. The principles include the gradation principle, i.e. the national level SSMPR and the provincial level SSMPR, the principle of highlighting priorities, namely, the area of an SSMPR should be a fraction of the total area of the country or of the respective province, but the earthquake losses incurred in SSMPR should be a major proportion of the national or provincial ones. The scientific train of thought adopted is to determine the SSMPR on the basis of seismic hazard assessment and loss estimation. Secondly, it reviews the achievements in determining the SSMPRs for the period from 1996 to 2005. The result shows that 10 strong earthquakes occurred during that period in the areas with earthquake monitoring and prediction capability available on the Chinese continent, 8 of which occurred in SSMPRs with the economic loss and death toll accounting for 67% and 92% of the total loss on the Chinese mainland. Lastly, the paper introduces preparatory research for determining the SSMPR for the period from 2006 to 2020, including decade-scale mid-and long-range seismic risk assessment based on seismology, seismogeology, geodesy, earthquake engineering, sociology and stochastics and so on, and the national seismic risk probability map, the seismic hazard (intensity) map, earthquake disaster losses map and the comprehensive seismic risk index, etc. obtained for the period of 2006 to 2020.

Seismic Monitoring Network and Seismic Activities in Thailand

The details of seismic monitoring network and seismological work in Thailand, including some information on felt earthquakes that occurred from 2000 to August 2001, are reported here.

The Role of the National Significant Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions Institution:From the Perspective of the RiskSociety Theory

Earthquake disaster risk,as a typical social disaster risk,is one of the most important risks in modern Chinese society.This study gives definitions of the institution,describes the formation history,the connotations and development and analyzes its role in the control of major social risks caused by earthquakes.Finally,the paper presents recommendations for continuous improvement of this institution under the guidance of risk society theory,and for its application to the government reform and social governance.