Mutual optimization of water utilization structure and industrial structure in arid inland river basins of Northwest China

Water is a key restricting factor of the economic development and eco-environmental protection in arid inland river basins of Northwest China. Although water supplies are short, the water utilization structure and the corresponding industrial structure are unbalanced. We constructed a System Dynamic Model for mutual optimization based on the mechanism of their interaction. This model is applied to the Heihe River Basin where the share of limited water resources among ecosystem, production and human living is optimized. Results show that, by mutual optimization, the water utilization structure and the industrial structures fit in with each other. And the relationships between the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin can be harmonized. Mutual benefits of ecology, society and economy can be reached, and a sustainable ecology-production-living system can be obtained. This study gives a new insight and method for the sustainable utilization of water resources in arid inland river basins.

Hydrological and water cycle processes of inland river basins in the arid region of Northwest China

The increasing shortage in water resources is a key factor affecting sustainable socio-economic development in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC). Water shortages also affect the stability of the region's oasis ecosystem. This paper summarizes the hydrological processes and water cycle of inland river basins in the ARNC, focusing on the following aspects: the spatial-temporal features of water resources(including air water vapor resources, runoff, and glacial meltwater) and their driving forces; the characteristics of streamflow composition in the inland river basins; the characteristics and main controlling factors of baseflow in the inland rivers; and anticipated future changes in hydrological processes and water resources. The results indicate that:(1) although the runoff in most inland rivers in the ARNC showed a significant increasing trend, both the glaciated area and glacial ice reserves have been reduced in the mountains;(2) snow melt and glacier melt are extremely important hydrological processes in the ARNC, especially in the Kunlun and Tianshan mountains;(3) baseflow in the inland rivers of the ARNC is the result of climate change and human activities, with the main driving factors being the reduction in forest area and the over-exploitation and utilization of groundwater in the river basins; and(4) the contradictions among water resources, ecology and economy will further increase in the future. The findings of this study might also help strengthen the ecological, economic and social sustainable development in the study region.

Vulnerability of an inland river basin water resource system under the background of future accelerated glacier melt: A case of Yarkent River Basin in arid Northwest China

Water resources of inland river basins of arid Northwest China will be profoundly affected by future accelerated glacier melt. Based on scenarios of climate warming, accelerated glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, vulnerability of the Yarkent River Basin water resources for 2010-2030 is evaluated quantitatively using the indicator of water deficiency ratio. Results show that the quantity of the basin＇s water resources will continuously increase over the next 20 years, mainly due to the effect of climate warming and accelerated glacier melt. But, in the next 10 years, the basin will have a deficient water status, and the water resource system will be quite vulnerable. This is due to an increased water demand from rapidly increasing socioeco- nomic development and a lack of low water-use efficiency in the near future. After about 2020, water supply will outstrip demand, greatly relieving the basin＇s water deficient due to increased water resources and the advancement of water-saving technology. Contrast to the hypothetical situation of unchanged glacier melt, climate wanning and resulting accelerated glacier melt may play a role in relieving the supply-demand strain to some extent.

Recent Changes in Precipitation Extremes in the Heihe River Basin,Northwest China

Changes in rainfall extremes pose a serious and additional threat to water resources planning and management, natural and artificial oasis stability, and sustainable development in the fragile ecosystems of arid inland river basins. In this study, the trend and temporal variation of extreme precipitation are analyzed using daily precipitation datasets at 11 stations over the arid inland Heihe River basin in Northwest China from 1960 to 2011. Eight indices of extreme precipitation are studied. The results show statistically significant and large-magnitude increasing and decreasing trends for most indices, primarily in the Qilian Mountains and eastern Hexi Corridor. More frequent and intense rainfall extremes have occurred in the southern part of the desert area than in the northern portion. In general, the temporal variation in precipitation extremes has changed throughout the basin. Wet day precipitation and heavy precipitation days show statistically significant linear increasing trends and step changes in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor. Consecutive dry days have decreased obviously in the region in most years after approximately the late 1980s, but meanwhile very long dry spells have increased, especially in the Hexi Corridor. The probability density function indicates that very long wet spells have increased in the Qilian Mountains. The East Asian summer monsoon index and western Pacific subtropical high intensity index possess strong and significant negative and positive correlations with rainfall extremes, respectively. Changes in land surface characteristics and the increase in water vapor in the wet season have also contributed to the changes in precipitation extremes over the river basin.

Impact of climate change and variability on water resources in Heihe River Basin

Studies indicate that the climate has experienced a dramatic change in the Heihe River Basin with scope of temperature rise reaching 0.5-1.1 o C in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990, precipitation increased 18.5 mm in the 1990s compared to the 1950s, and 6.5 mm in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990, water resources decreased 2.6×10 8 m 3 in the 1990s compared to the 1950s, and 0.4×10 8 m 3 in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990. These changes have exerted a greater effect on the local environment and socio-economy, and also made the condition worsening in water resources utilizations in the Heihe Rver Basin.

Sensitivity analyses of different vegetations responding to climate change in inland river basin of China

Terrestrial ecosystem and climate system are closely related to each other. Faced with the unavoidable global climate change, it is important to investigate terrestrial ecosystem responding to climate change. In inland river basin of arid and semi-arid regions in China, sensitivity difference of vegetation responding to climate change from 1998 to 2007 was analyzed in this paper. （1） Differences in the global spatio-temporal distribution of vegetation and climate are obvious. The vegetation change shows a slight degradation in this whole region. Degradation is more obvious in densely vegetated areas. Temperature shows a general downward trend with a linear trend coefficient of -1.1467. Conversely, precipitation shows an increasing trend with a linear trend coefficient of 0.3896. （2） About the central tendency response, there are similar features in spatial distribution of both NDVI responding to precipitation （NDVI-P） and NDVI responding to AI （NDVI-AI）, which are contrary to that of NDVI responding to air temperature （NDVI-T）. Typical sensitivity region of NDVI-P and NDVI-AI mainly covers the northern temperate arid steppe and the northern temperate desert steppe. NDVI-T typical sensitivity region mainly covers the northern temperate desert steppe. （3） Regarding the fluctuation amplitude response, NDVI-T is dominated by the lower sensitivity, typical regions of the warm temperate shrubby, selui-shrubby, bare extreme dry desert, and northern temperate meadow steppe in the east and temperate semi-shrubby, dwarf arboreous desert in the north are high response. （4） Fluctuation amplitude responses between NDVI-P and NDVI-AI present a similar spatial distribution. The typical sensitivity region mainly covers the northern temperate desert steppe. There are various linear change trend responses of NDVI-T, NDVI-P and NDVI-AI. As to the NDVI-T and NDVI-AI, which are influenced by the boundary effect of semi-arid and semi-humid climate zones, there is less correlation of their linear change tendency along the border. There is stronger correlation in other regions, especially in the NDVI-T in the northern temperate desert steppe and NDVI-AI in the warm temperate shrubby, selui-shrubby, bare, extreme and dry desert.

黄河流域(片)洪水风险区划编制实践与思考

黄河流域及西北诸河片洪水风险区划编制是水旱灾害风险普查的一项重要工作。基于黄河流域及西北诸河区洪水风险区划和洪灾防治区划编制工作实践,依据黄河流域片洪水灾害特点,提出了流域层面洪水风险分析评估方法,分析了流域洪水风险程度和分布特征,针对洪水风险评估方法、成果管理和应用提出了对策建议。

Toward a socio-political approach to water management: successes and limitations of IWRM programs in rural northwestern China

In rural north-western China,the tension between economic growth and ecological crises demonstrates the limitations of dominant top-down approaches to water management.In the 1990s,the Chinese government adopted the Integrated Water Resources Management(IWRM)approach to combat the degradation of water and ecological systems throughout its rural regions.While the approach has had some success at reducing desertification,water shortage,and ecological deterioration,there are important limitations and obstacles that continue to impede optimum outcomes in water management.As the current IWRM approach is instituted through a top-down centralized bureaucratic structure,it often fails to address the socio-political context in which water management is embedded and therefore lacks a complete treatment of how power is embedded in the bureaucracy and how it articulates through economic growth imperatives set by the Chinese state.The approach has relied on infrastructure heavy and technocratic solutions to govern water demand,which has worked to undermine the focus on integration and public participation.Finally,the historical process through which water management mechanisms have been instituted are fraught with bureaucratic fragmentation and processes of centralization that work against some of its primary goals such as reducing uncertainty and risk in water management systems.This article reveals the historical,social,political,and economic processes behind these shortcomings in water management in rural northwestern China by focusing on the limitations of a top-down approach that rely on infrastructure,technology,and quantification,and thereby advances a more holistic,socio-political perspective for water management that considers the state-society dynamics inherent in water governance in rural China.

甘肃河西地区内陆河流域荒漠化的水资源问题

河西地区内陆河流域荒漠化的水资源问题,根本的原因在于水资源短缺而导致的生态环境脆弱和水资源的过度开发利用.如果上、中游地区水资源的利用超过了水资源量的限度,则流到下游的径流量减沙,地下水位下降;而下游地区为了弥补水资源的不足,便大量开采地下水,致使地下水严重超采,从而导致植被退化和荒漠化.在分析上述问题的基础上,以石羊河为例,说明内陆河流域的荒漠化防治要求实行以农业节水为中心,建立节水型社会的流域综合治理,实现水资源、土地资源、经济、社会和生态环境协调和可持续发展.

TRMM月降水产品在西北内陆河流域的适应性定量分析

利用1998-2008年56个气象台站降水资料,结合TRMM月降水产品,通过对TRMM3B43降水数据在不同气候区、不同时空尺度的精度对比分析,探讨了卫星遥感反演降水产品在中国西北内陆河流域的适应性.结果表明:TRMM探测的月降水数据与实测月降水数据在整体上具有较好的一致性和线性相关性,相关系数为0.76,效率系数为0.58,其探测的降水量比观测值略大;TRMM在高原气候区月降水量的探测效果要优于在西风带区的;TRMM数据所反映的降水量的年内变化过程和实测降水量结果基本一致,但在具体的量上有一定的差异,表现为对降水相对集中的5-9月低估实测降水量,而在降水较少的10月-次年4月高估实测降水量,反映了TRMM对较大强度降水量的探测能力不足.流域多年平均降水量呈现南、北部大,中部小的格局,降水量的高值中心主要出现在高山地区,高达300 mm;而受西风环流影响的塔里木盆地东南面的且末-若羌一带、吐鲁番盆地和受高原区影响的柴达木盆地为极端干旱少雨区,降水量均不足100 mm.

西北内陆河流域水资源优化配置与可持续利用--以石羊河流域民勤县为例

西北内陆河流域,气候干旱,降水稀少,蒸发量大,水资源极其宝贵,生态环境脆弱。然而,西北内陆河流域工农业用水却存在不同程度的浪费现象,致使流域水资源管理出现诸如上下游利用不公,工农业利用不均等许多问题。现在,如何科学合理地优化配置西北内陆河流域水资源,并使其可持续利用,发挥最大的经济、社会和生态效益,已经成为学界和政界关注的重大问题。本文以石羊河下游流域民勤县为例,通过分析和研究流域水资源利用现状,提出了适合西北内陆河流域水资源优化配置的支撑体系,以期对本流域水资源可持续利用有所裨益。

中国西北内陆盆地水分垂直循环及其生态学意义

中国西北内陆盆地中的地下水系统,对维系其浅表水分、热量、盐分均衡以及地表的生态平衡、土壤的资源属性和局部地域气候相对稳定性具有不可或缺的调节作用,这种调节作用是通过饱和带水、包气带水(土壤水)、近地表大汽水和植物体内水("四水")之间的垂直循环来实现的。目前的相关研究主要侧重于地下水与地表植被类型间对应关系的统计分析,较少涉及水分运移的机制;而以水分垂直循环的动力学机制为研究对象的SPAC系统(土壤 植物 大气连续体),则对地下水的重视程度不够,且存在着尺度转换的困难,更为完整的应该是GSPAC系统(地下水 土壤 植物 大气连续体)。干旱区内陆盆地地下水生态效应的研究需要开展以下的工作:"四水"垂直循环的动力学过程与机制研究,尤其是饱水带-包气带界面水、汽、热转化过程的研究;人类活动影响下地下水系统演化特征的研究,它不仅是实现水分垂直循环研究的最终目的———水资源合理开发利用的中间环节,更是将"四水"垂直循环这一微观水文循环过程与区域水文循环过程相结合,实现尺度转化的关键所在。

黑河流域环境退化特征分析及防治研究

生态环境条件的好坏,是制约我国社会、经济和人民生活可持续发展的重要问题之一,特别是在生态环境脆弱的西北干旱区的内陆河流域。本文以黑河流域为例,根据最新的野外调查数据,结合该流域已有的研究文献资料,分析了黑河流域生态环境退化的现状和主要特征。研究结果表明,黑河流域生态环境退化主要是由于人类不合理的经济活动造成的,具体表现在土地的沙漠化、水资源的变化、土壤盐渍化和植被退化等方面。在此基础上,初步提出了防止流域生态环境恶化的综合治理对策。

黑河流域水资源可持续利用对策

水资源短缺和生态环境恶化已成为黑河流域面临的严重问题。本文分析了黑河流域水资源开发利用中存在的问题,在结合大量翔实数据的基础上,以水资源可持续利用为原则,提出了黑河流域水资源可持续利用的途经与措施。

西北干旱区内陆河年径流过程的非线性特征--塔里木盆地三源河的实证分析

以塔里木盆地三源河为例,基于1957-2002年的时间序列,运用小波分析方法从不同的时间尺度上分析了年径流过程的非线性变化趋势,并运用关联维数和R/S分析方法揭示了其分形与混沌特征。主要结论如下:(1)西北干旱区内陆河年径流过程,是复杂的非线性系统,它们具有波动性以及分形和混沌特征。(2)从大的时间尺度,即16(24)年的时间尺度上来看,阿克苏河、叶尔羌河的年径流量,在整体上基本呈上升趋势,而和田河在整体上却基本呈轻微的下降趋势。如果把时间尺度缩小到8(23)或4(22)年,则各河流的年径流量就不再是上升或下降趋势,而是呈明显的波动变化,而且4(22)年尺度上的波动比8(23)年尺度上的波动更加明显。(3)和田河、叶尔羌河与阿克苏河的关联维数分别为3.2227、3.2118与3.2092,均为非整数,是分形,这说明三源河的年径流过程具有混沌特征。由于每一个关联维数都大于3,这就意味着,要从动力学角度描述三源河的径流过程,至少需要4个独立变量。(4)从1989-2002年期间的Hurst指数可以判断,在2002年以后的14年里,阿克苏河与叶尔羌河的年径流量基本上将呈增加趋势,而和田河基本上将呈轻微的减少趋势。

我国棉花大品种的历史沿革与发展趋势分析

以全国农业技术推广服务中心发布的历年棉花品种推广面积为依据,将年推广应用面积在主产棉区中列首位的品种,或最大年推广面积在33.3万hm2以上且列主产棉区前3位的品种定义为大品种,分析大品种的累计推广面积、单年最大推广面积、列前3名的年限及推广面积占比的变化趋势。近40年来,黄河流域棉区有16个、长江流域棉区有15个和西北内陆棉区有14个棉花大品种,其中鲁棉研15号为黄河流域和长江流域棉区共同的大品种。分析发现我国棉花生产上推广应用的品种数量逐年上升,其中1981―2000年品种数量增幅较小,2001―2020年增幅较大。各年份大品种种植面积占各主产棉区总面积的比例呈现出明显的时代变化特征,其中,1981-1995年期间大品种的面积占比相对稳定,黄河流域、长江流域和西北内陆棉区大品种的面积占比分别稳定在61%、36%和83%左右;1996―2006年为大品种面积占比的剧烈下滑期,三大棉区大品种的面积占比平均下降到20%左右;2007―2020年为缓慢下降期,到2020年占比总体下降到15%左右。棉花大品种在我国植棉史上做出过重要贡献,但为适应种业和市场发展的多样化需求,当前和未来棉花育种的目标功能和区域定位将更加细化。

西北干旱内陆河流域城镇化与水资源环境系统耦合机理

水资源是西北干旱内陆河流域经济社会可持续发展最基本的约束条件,城镇化是实现可持续发展的重要环节,水资源的高效合理利用和城镇化的健康有序发展均是影响该区域可持续发展的关键因素。剖析了城镇化与水资源环境系统之间存在的耦合机理以及不同发展阶段的耦合作用强度,阐述了内陆河流域水资源利用时空转移下的城镇发展演变机理。

内陆干旱区水循环危机性标识与特征——以西北黑河流域为例

大量实测资料及综合研究表明,在内陆干旱区人类活动对水循环变异影响状况具有独特的标识特征,且具有一定的警示性和重要指导意义。当水循环中研究区径流量实测值离均系数小于0时,表明这时该水循环过程已失去了天然状态特征,实测径流量累计过程线明显偏离天然径流量累计过程线。在年内,每年的5月份受春旱农灌大量引用出山地表径流水量影响,地表径流量及其累计过程线偏离天然径流过程线最为严重,地下水补给量及泉水溢出水量也具有类似衰变特征。上述水循环衰减的程度,与该流域中游区灌溉面积和引用水量增加密切相关。其中20世纪80～90年代人类活动对流域水循环衰变影响程度从50年代的19%增大至54%,远超过流域尺度水循环自然调节能力,其拐点为37%。

黑河流域土地沙漠化与区域可持续发展

土地沙漠化,是制约我国社会、经济和人民生活可持续发展的严重问题之一,特别是在生态环境脆弱的西北干旱区的内陆河流域。以黑河流域为例,从流域沙漠化的现状和特点;土地沙漠化的发生、发展;沙漠化与可持续发展的关系等方面,进行了分析与探讨。在此基础上,提出了区域可持续发展的基本对策。