Analysing the Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Benue River Basin (North Cameroon)

In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.

Integrated Hydrological Modeling of the Godavari River Basin in Maharashtra Using the SWAT Model: Streamflow Simulation and Analysis

Hydrological modeling plays a crucial role in efficiently managing water resources and understanding the hydrologic behavior of watersheds. This study aims to simulate daily streamflow in the Godavari River Basin in Maharashtra using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a process-based hydrological model used to predict water balance components, sediment levels, and nutrient contamination. In this research, we used integrated remote sensing and GIS data, including Digital Elevation Models (DEM), land use and land cover (LULC) maps, soil maps, and observed precipitation and temperature data, as input for developing the SWAT model to assess surface runoff in this large river basin. The Godavari River Basin under study was divided into 25 sub-basins, comprising 151 hydrological response units categorized by unique land cover, soil, and slope characteristics using the SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated against observed runoff data for two time periods: 2003-2006 and 2007-2010 respectively. Model performance was assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results show the effectiveness of the SWAT2012 model, with R2 value of 0.84 during calibration and 0.86 during validation. NSE values also ranged from 0.84 during calibration to 0.85 during validation. These findings enhance our understanding of surface runoff dynamics in the Godavari River Basin under study and highlight the suit-ability of the SWAT model for this region.

Understanding and simulating of three-dimensional subsurface hydrological partitioning in an alpine mountainous area, China

Critical zone(CZ)plays a vital role in sustaining biodiversity and humanity.However,flux quantification within CZ,particularly in terms of subsurface hydrological partitioning,remains a significant challenge.This study focused on quantifying subsurface hydrological partitioning,specifically in an alpine mountainous area,and highlighted the important role of lateral flow during this process.Precipitation was usually classified as two parts into the soil:increased soil water content(SWC)and lateral flow out of the soil pit.It was found that 65%–88%precipitation contributed to lateral flow.The second common partitioning class showed an increase in SWC caused by both precipitation and lateral flow into the soil pit.In this case,lateral flow contributed to the SWC increase ranging from 43%to 74%,which was notably larger than the SWC increase caused by precipitation.On alpine meadows,lateral flow from the soil pit occurred when the shallow soil was wetter than the field capacity.This result highlighted the need for three-dimensional simulation between soil layers in Earth system models(ESMs).During evapotranspiration process,significant differences were observed in the classification of subsurface hydrological partitioning among different vegetation types.Due to tangled and aggregated fine roots in the surface soil on alpine meadows,the majority of subsurface responses involved lateral flow,which provided 98%–100%of evapotranspiration(ET).On grassland,there was a high probability(0.87),which ET was entirely provided by lateral flow.The main reason for underestimating transpiration through soil water dynamics in previous research was the neglect of lateral root water uptake.Furthermore,there was a probability of 0.12,which ET was entirely provided by SWC decrease on grassland.In this case,there was a high probability(0.98)that soil water responses only occurred at layer 2(10–20 cm),because grass roots mainly distributed in this soil layer,and grasses often used their deep roots for water uptake during ET.To improve the estimation of soil water dynamics and ET,we established a random forest(RF)model to simulate lateral flow and then corrected the community land model(CLM).RF model demonstrated good performance and led to significant improvements in CLM simulation.These findings enhance our understanding of subsurface hydrological partitioning and emphasize the importance of considering lateral flow in ESMs and hydrological research.

Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

Hydrological Process Factors Analysis of Heihe River Mountain Basin Based on GIS

Hydrological process factors are a reflection of the physical mechanism of basin hydrology,which can provide important basis for the use and protection of water resources.Taking Heihe River Mountain Basin as the study area,the hydrological simulation was made based on SWAT-GIS integrated model platform.The calculation methods of hydrological process factors using SWAT model were described based on the simulation results of runoff from 1990 to 2000.Hydrological process factors in the study area were analyzed by using GIS technology.The spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation,runoff,infiltration,evapotranspiration and snowmelt in the basin were calculated and analyzed.

TIME SERIES NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR HYDROLOGIC FORECASTING

Time series analysis plays an important role in hydrologic forecasting,while the key to this analysis is to establish a proper model.This paper presents a time series neural network model with back propagation procedure for hydrologic forecasting.Free from the disadvantages of previous models,the model can be parallel to operate information flexibly and rapidly.It excels in the ability of nonlinear mapping and can learn and adjust by itself,which gives the model a possibility to describe the complex nonlinear hydrologic process.By using directly a training process based on a set of previous data, the model can forecast the time series of stream flow.Moreover,two practical examples were used to test the performance of the time series neural network model.Results confirm that the model is efficient and feasible.

Influence of Rainfall Run-off in Hydrologic Process on Non-Point Pollution

[Objective] This study aimed to study on influence of rainfall runoff on non-point pollution and to reduce the pollution through control of the contamination produced from rainfall runoff. [Method] In order to explore effective methods to decrease non-point pollution, we conducted analysis on hydrological process of rainfall runoff, interaction mechanism between the process and non-point pollutants, the influence on non-point pollution and hydrological model application in the research. [Result] It was proved that rainfall runoff was the main factor of non-point pollution. Control from source strengthened clearing and controlling of non-point pollutants on the ground. Growing plants in slope effectively reduced the scour and erosion of rainfall runoff on soil. The study became simple thanks for the hydrological process. [Conclusion] The research indicated that non-point pollution would be effectively reduced through control of rainfall runoff.

Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological impact

Light absorbing particles（LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust） influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance（a.k.a., surface darkening）, which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice（LAPSI） has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change—Progress and Challenges

The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps： （1） use of general circulation models （GCMs） to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases, （2） use of downscaling techniques （both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods） for ＂downscaling＂ the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and （3） use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales. Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.

Atmospheric hydrological budget with its effects over Tibetan Plateau

Based on 1961-2000 NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis datasets, vapor transfer and hydrological budget over the Tibetan Plateau are investigated. The Plateau is a vapor sink all the year round. In summer, vapor is convergent in lower levels (from surface to 500 hPa) and divergent in upper levels (from 400 to 300 hPa), with 450 hPa referred to as level of non-divergence. Two levels have different hydrologic budget signatures: the budget is negative at the upper levels from February to November, i.e., vapor transfers from the upper levels over the plateau; as to the lower, the negative (positive) budget occurs during the winter (summer) half year. Evidence also indicates that Tibetan Plateau is a 'vapor transition belt', vapor from the south and the west is transferred from lower to upper levels there in summer, which will affect surrounding regions, including eastern China, especially, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze. Vapor transfer exerts significant influence on precipitation in summertime months. Vapor transferred from the upper layers helps humidify eastern China, with coefficient -0.3 of the upper budget to the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze (MLRY); also, vapor transferred from east side (27.5 o -32.5 o N) of the upper level has remarkable relationship with precipitation, the coefficient being 0.41. The convergence of the lower level vapor has great effects on the local precipitation over the plateau, with coefficient reaching 0.44, and the vapor passage affects the advance and retreat of the rainbelt. In general, atmospheric hydrologic budget and vapor transfer over the plateau have noticeable effects on precipitation of the target region as well as the ambient areas.

Response of snow hydrological processes to a changing climate during 1961 to 2016 in the headwater of Irtysh River Basin, Chinese Altai Mountains

With changing climatic conditions and snow cover regime, regional hydrological cycle for a snowy basin will change and further available surface water resources will be redistributed. Assessing snow meltwater effect on runoff is the key to water safety, under climate warming and fast social-economic developing status. In this study, stable isotopic technology was utilized to analyze the snow meltwater effect on regional hydrological processes, and to declare the response of snow hydrology to climate change and snow cover regime, together with longterm meteorological and hydrological observations, in the headwater of Irtysh River, Chinese Altai Mountains during 1961-2015. The average δ^(18) O values of rainfall, snowfall, meltwater, groundwater and river water for 2014–2015 hydrological year were-10.9‰,-22.3‰,-21.7‰,-15.7‰ and-16.0‰, respectively.The results from stable isotopes, snow melting observation and remote sensing indicated that the meltwater effect on hydrological processes in Kayiertesi River Basin mainly occurred during snowmelt supplying period from April to June. The contribution of meltwater to runoff reached 58.1% during this period, but rainfall, meltwater and groundwater supplied 49.1%, 36.9% and 14.0% of water resource to annual runoff, respectively. With rising air temperature and increasing snowfall in cold season, the snow water equivalent(SWE) had an increasing trend but the snow cover duration declined by about one month including 13-day delay of the first day and 17-day advancement of the end day during 1961–2016. Increase in SWE provided more available water resource. However, variations in snow cover timing had resulted in redistribution of surface water resource, represented by an increase of discharge percentage in April and May, and a decline in Juneand July. This trend of snow hydrology will render a deficit of water resource in June and July when the water resource demand is high for agricultural irrigation and industrial manufacture.

Simulations of a Hydrological Model as Coupled to a Regional Climate Model

Considering a detailed hydrologic model in the land surface scheme helps to improve the simulation of regional hydro-climatology. A hydrologic model, which includes spatial heterogeneities in precipitation and infiltration, is constructed and incorporated into the land surface scheme BATS. Via the coupled-model (i.e., a regional climate model) simulations, the following major conclusions are obtained: the simulation of surface hydrology is sensitive to the inclusion of heterogeneities in precipitation and infiltration; the runoff ratio is increased after considering the infiltration heterogeneity, a result which is more consistent with the observations of surface moisture balance over humid areas; the introduction of the parameterization of infiltration heterogeneity can have a greater influence on the regional hydro-climatology than the precipitation heterogeneity; and the consideration of the impermeable fraction for the region reveals some features that are closer to the trend of aridification over northern China.

Systematic Hydrological Evaluation of the Noah-MP Land Surface Model over China

We evaluate water budget components-namely,soil moisture,runoff,evapotranspiration,and terrestrial water storage (TWS)-simulated by the Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) in China,a large geographic domain challenging for hydrological modeling due to poor observational data and a lack of one single parameterization that can fit for complex hydrological processes.By comparing the model simulations with multi-source reference data,we show that Noah-MP can generally reproduce the overall spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and evapotranspiration over six major river basins,with the annual correlation coefficients generally greater than 0.8 and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient exceeding 0.5.Among the six basins evaluated,the best model performance is seen over the Huaihe River basin.The temporal trend of the modeled TWS anomalies agrees well with GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) observations,capturing major flood and drought events in different basins.Experiments with 12 selected physical parameterization options show that the runoff parameterization has a stronger impact on the simulated soil moisture-runoff-evapotranspiration relationships than the soil moisture factor for stomatal resistance schemes,a result consistent with previous studies.Overall,Noah-MP driven by GLDAS forcing simulates the hydrological variables well,except for the Songliao basin in northeastern China,likely because this is a transitional region with extensive freeze-thaw activity,while representations of human activities may also help improve the model performance.

Application of Radar-Measured Rain Data in Hydrological Processes Modeling during the Intensified Observation Period of HUBEX

On the basis of Digital Elevation Model data, the raster flow vectors, watershed delineation, and spatial topological relationship are generated by the Martz and Garbrecht method for the upper area of Huangnizhuang station in the Shihe Catchment with 805 km2 of area, an intensified observation field for the HUBEX/GAME Project. Then, the Xin’anjiang Model is applied for runoff production in each grid element where rain data measured by radar at Fuyang station is utilized as the input of the hydrological model. The elements are connected by flow vectors to the outlet of the drainage catchment where runoff is routed by the Muskingum method from each grid element to the outlet according to the length between each grid and the outlet. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient is 92.41% from 31 May to 3 August 1998, and 85.64%, 86.62%, 92.57%, and 83.91%, respectively for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th flood events during the whole computational period. As compared with the case where rain-gauge data are used in simulating the hourly hydrograph at Huangnizhuang station in the Shihe Catchment, the index of model efficiency improvement is positive, ranging from 27.56% to 69.39%. This justifies the claim that radar-measured data are superior to rain-gauge data as inputs to hydrological modeling. As a result, the grid-based hydrological model provides a good platform for runoff computation when radar-measured rain data with highly spatiotemporal resolution are taken as the input of the hydrological model.

Global analysis of sensitivity of bioretention cell design elements to hydrologic performance

Analysis of sensitivity of bioretention cell design elements to their hydrologic performances is meaningful in offering theoretical guidelines for proper design. Hydrologic performance of bioretention cells was facilitated with consideration of four metrics： the overflow ratio, groundwater recharge ratio, ponding time, and runoff coefficients. The storm water management model （SWMM） and the bioretention infiltration model RECARGA were applied to generating runoff and outflow time series for calculation of hydrologic performance metrics. Using a parking lot to build a bioretention cell, as an example, the Morris method was used to conduct global sensitivity analysis for two groups of bioretention samples, one without underdrain and the other with underdrain. Results show that the surface area is the most sensitive element to most of the hydrologic metrics, while the gravel depth is the least sensitive element whether bioretention cells are installed with underdrain or not. The saturated infiltration rate of planting soil and the saturated infiltration rate of native soil are the other two most sensitive elements for bioretention cells without underdrain, while the saturated infiltration rate of native soil and underdrain size are the two most sensitive design elements for bioretention cells with underdrain.

Revegetation with artificial plants improves topsoil hydrological properties but intensifies deep-soil drying in northern Loess Plateau,China

Knowledge about the effects of vegetation types on soil properties and on water dynamics in the soil profile is critical for revegetation strategies in water-scarce regions, especially the choice of vegetation type and human management measures. We focused on the analysis of the effects of vegetation type on soil hydrological properties and soil moisture variation in the 0–400 cm soil layer based on a long-term（2004―2016） experimental data in the northern Loess Plateau region, China. Soil bulk density（BD）, saturated soil hydraulic conductivity（Ks）, field capacity（FC） and soil organic carbon（SOC） in 2016, as well as the volumetric soil moisture content during 2004–2016, were measured in four vegetation types, i.e., shrubland（korshinsk peashrub）, artificial grassland（alfalfa）, fallow land and cropland（millet or potato）. Compared with cropland, revegetation with peashrub and alfalfa significantly decreased BD and increased Ks, FC, and SOC in the 0–40 cm soil layer, and fallow land significantly increased FC and SOC in the 0–10 cm soil layer. Soil water storage（SWS） significantly declined in shrubland and grassland in the 40–400 cm soil layer, causing severe soil drought in the deep soil layers. The study suggested that converting cropland to grassland（alfalfa） and shrubland（peashrub） improved soil-hydrological properties, but worsened water conditions in the deep soil profile. However, natural restoration did not intensify deep-soil drying. The results imply that natural restoration could be better than revegetation with peashrub and alfalfa in terms of good soil hydrological processes in the semi-arid Loess Plateau region.

Intermediately Complex Models for the Hydrological Interactions in the Atmosphere-Vegetation-Soil System

This paper investigates the hydrological interactions in the atmosphere-evegetation-soil system by using the bucket model and several new simplified intermediately complex models. The results of mathematical analysis and numerical simulations show that these models, despite their simplicity, can very clearly reveal the essential features of the rather complex hydrological system of atmosphere-ecosystem-soil. For given atmospheric variables, these models clearly demonstrate multiple timescales, the ＂red shift＂ of response spectra, multi-equilibria and limit cycles, bifurcation, abrupt change, self-organization, recovery, ＂desertification＂, and chaos. Most of these agree with observations. Especially, the weakening of ＂shading effect＂ of living canopy and the wilted biomass might be a major mechanism leading to the desertification in a relatively short period due to overgrazing, and the desertification in a relatively long period or in climate of change might be due to both Charney＇s mechanism and the shading effect. These ideas could be validated with further numerical simulations. In the paper, some methods for improving the estimation of timescales in the soil water evolution responding to the forcing are also proposed.

Simulation of hydrological processes of mountainous watersheds in inland river basins: taking the Heihe Mainstream River as an example

The hydrological processes of mountainous watersheds in inland river basins are complicated.It is absolutely significant to quantify mountainous runoff for social,economic and ecological purposes.This paper takes the mountainous watershed of the Heihe Mainstream River as a study area to simulate the hydrological processes of mountainous watersheds in inland river basins by using the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT)model.SWAT simulation results show that both the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and the determination coefficient values of the calibration period(January 1995 to December 2002)and validation period(January 2002 to December 2009)are higher than 0.90,and the percent bias is controlled within±5%,indicating that the simulation results are satisfactory.According to the SWAT performance,we discussed the yearly and monthly variation trends of the mountainous runoff and the runoff components.The results show that from 1996 to 2009,an indistinctive rising trend was observed for the yearly mountainous runoff,which is mainly recharged by lateral flow,and followed by shallow groundwater runoff and surface runoff.The monthly variation demonstrates that the mountainous runoff decreases slightly from May to July,contrary to other months.The mountainous runoff is mainly recharged by shallow groundwater runoff in January,February,and from October to December,by surface runoff in March and April,and by lateral flow from May to September.

Hydrological eco-service of rubber plantations in Hainan Island and its effect on local economic development

The impacts of economic forest on global environmental change(GEC) are one of the hot issues in environmental study. Based on the 3 year observation data and 40 year climate data, GEC and analysis of the hydrological dynamic characteristics of rubber plantations and estimate of the water balance in the rubber plantations in Hainan Island were made. The results showed that the rainfall intercepted by the canopy of the plantations accounted for 11 45% of the annual rainfall, the total runoff for 23 71%, the total evaporation and transpiration for 63 24%, the soil moisture storage for 1 6%. Analysis of the 40 year rainfall data in the 19 counties of Hainan Island during 1951—1990 showed that the large scale substitution of the natural vegetation with the rubber plantations had no significant effect on the local rainfall in Hainan Island. The main reasons are (1) 80% of the rainfall in Hainan is brought by typhoons; (2) the proportion of 11 6% rubber plantations in total forest coverage in Hainan is not enough to influence the local rainfall in Hainan Island; and (3) although the rubber plantation is artificial vegetation, it has the similar function to the tropical rain forest. Analysis of the total water resource and total GDP of Hainan in 1997 showed that the economic benefit resulted from the water resource was 1 0 RMB Yuan/m 3 The value of hydrological of the rubber plantation in Hainan was 113 9 million RMB Yuan/a when compared with the tropical rain forest. The paper reaches conclusion that the hydrological eco service function of rubber plantation has been enhanced after transformed from natural vegetation, which includes the natural service and powerful social service.

Hydrological adjustment and flooding control of wetlands in the Liaohe Delta

The function of estuary wetland on hydrological adjustment and flooding control is studied in this paper. It is estimated that the evapotranspiration in the reed field during growth season(June to October) is 722.9 mm, which is 37.5% higher than large water body(E 601∶525.9 mm). The water replacement rate in the reed field can reach 95% only when the rains continuously for 11 days and the precipitation reached 912 mm. For the water balance in the paddy field, the total water requirement ranges between 1920 and 1860 mm, among which, 31% is from precipitation, and the left is provided by reservoirs. The water usage efficiency is 0.35 at present productivity. Based on the landscape characteristics and functionalities on flooding control, 5 functional zones are designed for the Liaohe Delta: key protected area; underground storage area; flooding discharge area; flood diversion area in emergency; and flood control drainage area.