Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM_(2.5)Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.

Seismic Risk Model for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China:Considering Epistemic Uncertainty from the Seismic Hazard Models

This study presents a probabilistic seismic risk model for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China.The model comprises a township-level residential building exposure model,a vulnerability model derived from the Chinese building taxonomy,and a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model.The three components are integrated by a stochastic event-based method of the OpenQuake engine to assess the regional seismic risk in terms of average annual loss and exceedance probability curve at the city,province,and regional levels.The novelty and uniqueness of this study are that a probabilistic seismic risk model for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China is developed by considering the impact of site conditions and epistemic uncertainty from the seismic hazard model.

The Static Stability Region of an Integrated Electricity-Gas System Considering Voltage and Gas Pressure

In an integrated electricity-gas system(IEGS),load fluctuations affect not only the voltage in the power system but also the gas pressure in the natural gas system.The static voltage stability region(SVSR)method is a tool for analyzing the overall static voltage stability in a power system.However,in an IEGS,the SVSR boundary may be overly optimistic because the gas pressure may collapse before the voltage collapses.Thus,the SVSR method cannot be directly applied to an IEGS.In this paper,the concept of the SVSR is extended to the IEGS-static stability region(SSR)while considering voltage and gas pressure.First,criteria for static gas pressure stability in a natural gas system are proposed,based on the static voltage stability criteria in a power system.Then,the IEGS-SSR is defined as a set of active power injections that satisfies multi-energy flow(MEF)equations and static voltage and gas pressure stability constraints in the active power injection space of natural gas-fired generator units(NGUs).To determine the IEGSSSR,a continuation MEF(CMEF)method is employed to trace the boundary point in one specific NGU scheduling direction.A multidimensional hyperplane sampling method is also proposed to sample the NGU scheduling directions evenly.The obtained boundary points are further used to form the IEGSSSR in three-dimensional(3D)space via a Delaunay triangulation hypersurface fitting method.Finally,the numerical results of typical case studies are presented to demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively form the IEGS-SSR,providing a tool for IEGS online monitoring and dispatching.

Resilience-Oriented Load Restoration Method and Repair Strategies for Regional Integrated Electricity-Natural Gas System

The rising frequency of extreme disaster events seriously threatens the safe and secure operation of the regional integrated electricity-natural gas system(RIENGS).With the growing level of coupling between electric and natural gas systems,it is critical to enhance the load restoration capability of both systems.This paper proposes a coordinated optimization strategy for resilience-enhanced RIENGS load restoration and repair scheduling and transforms it into a mixed integer second-order cone programming(MISOCP)model.The proposed model considers the distribution network reconfiguration and the coordinated repair strategy between the two systems,minimizing the total system load loss cost and repair time.In addition,a bi-directional gas flow model is used to describe the natural gas system,which can provide the RIENGS with more flexibility for load restoration during natural gas system failure.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified by conducting case studies on the test systems RIENGS E13-G7 and RIENGS E123-G20.

Innovation Transformation and Industry-Education Integration:A Study on the Integration Path of Guangxi Zhuang’s Intangible Cultural Heritage and Master of Arts Education in China

This study focuses on the master of arts education in higher education institutions in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China,explores the path of integrating Guangxi Zhuang’s intangible cultural heritage with the teaching of master of arts,and puts forward the teaching mode of“thinking guidance-autonomous judgement-program construction.”A theoretical model of innovative transformation of intangible cultural heritage is also summarized.Through the development of this study,it is expected to further enrich the practical teaching mechanism of master of arts education in Chinese universities and form a master of arts teaching model with strong local cultural characteristics.At the same time,the teaching reform based on the integration of Guangxi Zhuang’s intangible cultural heritage and master of arts education also has strong practical significance for promoting the inheritance and innovation of Chinese intangible cultural heritage,promoting the development of cultural and creative industries,and serving the economic and social development of Guangxi.

Development of Red Cultural Resources in Yimeng Region under the Background of Cultural and Tourism Integration

The red cultural resources in Yimeng region have a long history and are an indispensable part ofthe traditional culture of the Chinese nation. From the perspective of cultural and tourism integration, thispaper investigates and evaluates the red cultural resources in Yimeng old revolutionary base area, analyzescombined with the development status of red tourism, and puts forward targeted suggestions on thedevelopment of Yimeng red cultural resources through the investigation and analysis of tourists’ feelingsabout red tourism in Yimeng region.

Hebei Talents Development Strategy under the Background of Talents Integration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

As the development of productive forces, the most critical and most active factors in people is the fimdamental driving force of regional economic sustainable development and cooperation has a vital role in regional economic development Only speed up regional economic cooperation and enforce the integration of regional talent development, can the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region achieves rapid development, and become China＇ s third largest economic growth pole, following the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta. Based on reviewing the integration process of the integration of regional talent development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebci region, this paper further analyze differences in the economic development status, the level of human capital, wage levels, employment status, and the development of educational science and technology among Hebei Province, Beijing and Tianjin, and concludes talent development strategy for Hebei Province replying the personnel integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province.

Spatial Variability of PM_(2.5) Pollution in Imbalanced Natural and Socioeconomic Processes: Evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China

Accurately identifying and quantifying the factors influencing PM_(2.5) pollution is of great significance for the prevention and control of pollution. However, the redundancy among potential factors of PM_(2.5) may be overlooked. Meanwhile, the inconsistent spatial distribution of the natural and socioeconomic conditions brings unique implications for the cities within a region, which may lead to an uncertain understanding of the relationship between pollution and environmental factors. This study focused on the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH) Region, China, which presents complex and varied background conditions. Potential impact factors on PM_(2.5) were firstly screened by combining systematic cluster analysis with a random forest recursive feature elimination algorithm. Then, the representative multi-factor responsible for PM_(2.5) pollution in the region during the key period of 2014–2018(when the strict national air pollution control policy was implemented). The results showed that the key driving factors of PM_(2.5) pollution in the BTH cities are different, indicating that the uniqueness of a city will have an impact on the leading causes of pollution. Further discussion shows that air control policy provides an effective way to improve air quality. This study aims to deepen the understanding of the risk drivers of air pollution within the BTH Region. In the future, it is recommended that more attention should be paid to the specific differences between the cities when formulating PM_(2.5) concentration control measures.

Assessing the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on environmental pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region using spatial panel data model

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the vanguard of economic development in northern China.Its manufacturing industry is more and more developed,but environmental pollution is also more serious.Based on the data of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2017 to 2021,the paper verifies the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on environmental pollution.Both manufacturing agglomeration and environmental pollution are dependent on spatial distribution.Therefore,the paper selects spatial econometric model to study.First,the spatial lag model and spatial error model are constructed,and then the spatial lag model is selected through the results of OLS regression,LM Test and Hausman test,and the empirical process is carried out.Finally,the empirical results are analyzed and the conclusion is drawn.

The Integration and Communication of Regional Culture in Canal Landscape Planning and Design:A Case Study of the Grand Canal in the Gaomin Temple Section of Yangzhou

The Grand Canal is the cultural source of Yangzhou's historical development. The heritage and development of the canal culture are conducive to enhancing the image of Yangzhou, building cultural brands, and enhancing core competitiveness. Taking the canal in the Gaomin Temple section of Yangzhou for example, this study was based on the regional canal culture and the humanistic characteristics of Gaomin Temple, and explored the unique cultural communication mode of the important landscape node of the canal. Through the analysis of the status and development of the landscape of the section, this study concluded corresponding cultural orientation content and direction, and analyzed the integration and communication ideas of regional culture in landscape planning and design, in order to provide a reference for the promotion of cultural brands in the canal city of Yangzhou.

Urban-rural Integration Based on Regional Economic Integration——A Case of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan Areas of Gansu Province

The relationship between urban-rural integration and regional economic integration is summarized in the paper.Based on the fact,it expressed the necessity and realistic meaning of pushing forward the urban-rural integration process synchronously during Jiuquan-Jia yuguan (abbreviate:Jiu-Jia) areas economic integration.The current degree of the urban-rural integration of Jiu-Jia was analyzed by index calculation,and the related conclusions were obtained.Besides,the development concepts and the key works to accelerate the process of Jiu-Jia urban-rural integration were suggested.The results show that the overall level of urban-rural integration in Jiuquan and Jiayuguan is higher than the average level of Gansu Province,but the urban-rural economic development and social development lose the balance and the dual structure is prominent.In the end,three developmental patterns for accelerating the developmental process of urban-rural integration are put forward.Firstly,the government should find the key of the current work and coordinate the construction of infrastructure.Secondly,rural economic industrialization should be promoted.Thirdly,the urbanized social management should be promoted.

Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,China

China has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal prosperity.The country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary goal.However,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological poverty.In this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of China was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study area.The indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and social.The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for 2021-2030.The back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from 2021-2030.The RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk areas.From 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward trend.From 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk areas.The natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

Energy Integration in South America Region and the Energy Sustainability of the Nations

The objective of this manuscript is to analyze relation involving the energy sector and socioeco-nomic growth and, then, contextualize the process of energy integration within the development policies in South America. The methodology considers data related to the world’s economy and energy consumption and energy integration policy in countries and regions;and, South America’s energy potential and the energy integration process. Results show that despite the political and institutional difficulties involving the process, energy integration can bring a lot of benefits for countries development. The process of energy integration in South America is divided in three moments, but in both periods the transnational energy projects were restricted, mostly, by a bi-lateral plan and the creation of physical links in a region. In the 21th century’s context, it should be noted Brazil’s participation which has been consolidated as a lead country in this process, and, also the IIRSA (Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America, nowadays renamed as COSIPLAN) like the main initiative in energy integration in the continent, in a context where the projects are no longer limited to traditional economic blocs. Finally, we note a lack of consensus in defining a comprehensive model of integration and solving asymmetries both within countries and between them.

Analysis of Driving Factors of Natural Gas Consumption in China: Based on Regional Integration and LMDI Method

In recent years,China has developed rapidly in terms of natural gas.Driven by regional economic integration,a regional natural gas market composed of neighboring provinces and cities has taken shape gradually,and it tends to grow toward the same direction in policy formulation,resource coordination,facility construction and market expansion.Based on the factors such as geographical location,economic conditions and natural gas consumption,this thesis tends to conduct a horizontal comparative analysis on the economic development conditions,natural gas consumption characteristics and natural gas pipeline network density of the three regions with obvious regional integration feature in China.Then according to LMDI,four core indicators,namely economic growth effect,energy intensity effect,energy structure effect,and substitution effect are selected.The thesis is expected to explore the contribution of different indicators to the growth of natural gas consumption in these three different regions.According to the results,it can be concluded that the driving factors of natural gas consumption differ greatly among regions.Specifically speaking,the more developed the economy is,the greater the contribution of the energy substitution effect to natural gas consumption will be,and the contribution of the economic growth effect to natural gas consumption will be smaller.Despite that the contribution of energy intensity in different regions shows slight difference,the energy structure contributes the least effect,which further explains the current differences in China’s natural gas consumption characteristics and the reasons behind.

Integration Approach to Studying of Regional Music Cultures --On an Example of the Eastern Europe

The paper based on the proposed integrative approach to studying music cultures of the Eastern Europe. Come to light the factors of integration promoting interference and enrichment of national musical cultures. The region of national composer schools actively joined in world art process in the second half of the 19th century （Czechia, Poland, and Hungary） and in the 20th century （Bulgaria, Slovakia, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, and Macedonia） Theme of this paper is to identify the basic principles of this region. The purpose of the work, defining features of the musical cultures of the Eastern European region as a whole, also here highlights the commonality of the creative ideas of representatives of the region--Bartok, Janachek, Martinu, etc.. Method of developing is defined by their orientation to the disclosure of topic. The paper used the comparative-typological and integrated approaches and methods of analysis

The Inspiration of European Integration to Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation

The two different developing trends in current Asia are in sharp contrast with each other. One is relying on military means to solve regional conflicts, the other is coordinating and stabilizing inter-state relations through economic integration. The latter is undoubtedly the target to be sought after. Summarizing Europe’s experience is conducive to reaching the goal.

Research on the Promotion Path and Strategy of Regional Tourism Brand of Jinan-Tai'an Urban Integration from the Perspective of Marketing

In order to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of the city,Shandong Province put forward the development strategy of Jinan-Tai’an urban integration.Based on the perspective of tourism marketing,the regional tourism brand of Jinan-Tai’an urban integration is created to promote the development of regional tourism in Jinan and Tai’an and further promote the integrated development of Tai’an and Jinan.Based on the analysis of the tourism resources and the characteristics of tourist source market in Tai’an and Jinan,as well as the in-depth study of successful cases at home and abroad,the path and countermeasures to promote the development of regional tourism in Tai’an and Jinan are summarized from the perspective of marketing.

Coordinated development of Yunnan's frontier culture and economy under the regional economic integration pattern

This paper constructs the index system by means of quantitative analysis. We choose the coordination degree of Yunnan province from 2012 to 2015. The regional cultural and economic development in Yunnan's frontier are analyzed so that we can provide the reference for the sustainable development of Yunnan's frontier and realize the coordinated development of culture in Yunnan's frontier and economic system in order. The results show that the culture and economy in Yunnan's frontier are coupled with formation of the coordinated development of culture and economy; economic development is the main reason to promote the coordinated development of culture and economy in Yunnan's frontier, and it contributes to the main force of improving the coordinated development of evolution types; the coordinated development degree of the overall level is low and still in the China's backward level.

Regional Healthcare Platform Integration Study Based on Common Interface

In order to achieve the data exchanging and sharing in complex hospital information systems, the patients, the hospitals and the doctors were put into an integration platform, and improve the regional healthcare incorporating and collaborating, the operators, such as the patients, the regional healthcare departments and community operators were put an uniform platform, the study focused on the design of common interface based on the EMR （electronic medical records） system so as to get the uniform information from anywhere at anytime. In the hospital, we set up the common interface based on the HL7 （health level seven） criterion to connect the different models and among the regional healthcare departments, we set up the common interface based on the middleware technology to connect the different medical management information systems. The design of common interface based on the HL7 engine integrated the platform of all the hospital models, and middleware completed the collaboration applications among the regional healthcare departments. The common interfaces based on HL7 and middleware satisfied the requirements of data and formed in different medical information systems, and complemented the regional healthcare information sharing by the integration platform. It is a feasible solution that supports the mobile nursing and smarter healthcare by the theory analysis and practice application.