Impact of geopolitical risk,GDP,inflation,interest rate,and trade openness on foreign direct investment:Evidence from five Southeast Asian countries

Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Indonesia,South Korea,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand)influences foreign direct investment(FDI)during 1996-2019.The stationarity of the data was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)unit root test,which shows that the data became stationary after the first difference.The Kao,Pedroni,and Westerlund cointegration tests were employed to examine long-term cointegration among the selected variables(FDI,GPR index(GPRI),gross domestic product(GDP),inflation,interest rate,and trade openness(TOP)).The results indicated that these variables have a long-term cointegration.Consequently,regression analysis using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)regression,fixed effect,random effect,Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation,and system generalized moment method(GMM)revealed that GPRI and TOP negatively impacted FDI in the selected five Southeast Asian countries.At the same time,GDP,inflation,and interest rate positively influenced FDI in these countries.Because FDI is crucial to shaping a country’s macroeconomic structure,this study recommends that governments and central banks of the selected five Southeast Asian countries should implement policies and strategies to encourage foreign investments.

Major Problems and Countermeasures of Foreign Trade in China under the Background of Expanding Domestic Demand

Starting from China's macro-economic policy level and combining with the status of foreign trade in China, major problems in the development of foreign trade are analyzed under the background of expanding domestic demand, which is guided by the macro-economy, international finance, international trade and other related disciplines. Problems are mainly the inflation, the reduction of import, the trade protection, the increase in export costs, the reduction of export, the scale shrinkage of foreign trade, the speculation of short-term hot money, and the increase in risk of economic fluctuation. Finally, corresponding countermeasures are put forward, such as actively coping with the appreciation of the RMB, effectively increasing the anti-risk ability of RMB, firmly maintaining the currency stability of RMB, reducing the international trade friction, transforming the growth model of foreign trade, promoting the industrial and products upgrading of foreign trade, enhancing the benefits of foreign trade, forming an effective price competition mechanism, increasing the support in trade, improving the environment for trade development, correctly dealing with the relationship between government and foreign trade enterprise, controlling inflation, and restricting hot money speculation.

Tapping Advantages and Expanding International and Domestic Networks for Further Integrating Jiangxi with the Rest of the World——Thriving Foreign Related Work in Jiangxi Province

"…enable Jiangxi to become the example of ecological civilization and pacesetter of building beautiful China,and realize the dream of a prosperous,harmonious and beautiful Jiangxi through our earnest efforts."Recent years have witnessed vigorous efforts made by the Provincial Foreign Affairs and Overseas Chinese

C-E Translation of News under the Influence of Cultural Integration

With the rapid development of economy and technology, the world is becoming a global village. Cultural integration is an essential part under the globalization trend. Communications between different countries has been paid high attention to. News, as a carrier of the information, is received by large amount of people. Thus translators play an essential role in promoting the intercultural activity. The thesis discusses translation strategies in order to come up with a better idea of C-E translation under the influence of cultural integration.

新质生产力赋能内外贸一体化的作用机理、主要挑战和实现路径

新质生产力是推动高质量发展的战略引擎和重要着力点。加快内外贸一体化、扩大高水平对外开放既是把握新发展阶段、贯彻新发展理念、构建新发展格局的重要举措,也是新质生产力推动高质量发展的题中之义。新质生产力能够为内外贸一体化提供科学的方向引领,拓展内外贸一体化空间,优化内外贸一体化产业结构,激发内外贸一体化发展新动能。新质生产力赋能内外贸一体化要克服世界经济复苏乏力、内外贸市场长期分割、企业自身异质性、基础设施不足及保障条件欠缺等挑战。要着力加快重点领域内外贸融合发展,促进内外贸规则制度衔接融合,加快内外贸一体化试点和平台建设,提升内外贸数字化、绿色化水平,改善内外贸一体化发展环境条件。

The effect of domestic and foreign trade coordination on technological innovation： complements or substitutes？

Based on the theory of technology spillover in international trade, this paper discusses the technological innovation effect of trade by taking the influence of domestic trade into account. Under the constraint of the production possibility frontier, there is either complementarity or substitutability between domestic and foreign trade. It must be decided whether resources should be concentrated in one of the sectors （trade specialization） or instead allocated equally （trade equalization） between the two sectors. This paper firstly discusses how domestic trade and foreign trade work together to influence technological innovation, and how trade equalization and specialization affect different types of innovation. Using a provincial-level panel dataset from 2007 to 2015 in China, this paper constructs the indicators of domestic and foreign trade linkage and examines the impact of trade on innovation. The findings show that trade equalization mainly promotes incremental innovation, while trade specialization improves radical innovation. Thus, in the area of incremental innovation, attention should be paid to the equalized development of domestic and foreign trade, while in areas pursuing radical innovation, emphasis should be put on the specialization of the trade sector, avoiding equal allocation of resources to the two sectors.

Foreign Ownership and International Trade Performance in China

We investigate the causal relationship between foreign ownership and international trade performance by comparing foreign-acquired firms with similar domestic-acquired firms in China with regard to changes in their post-acquisition international trade performance.Our findings indicate that foreign ownership significantly enhanced the probability of both exporting and importing,and strongly increased trade value.Foreign ownership took effect from the year of the acquisition and persisted for at least 2 years.It stimulated both processing trade and ordinary trade,and expanded products and trading partners.Post-acquisition trade performance also exhibited heterogeneity based on the different pre-acquisition and post-acquisition ownership.As for the underlying mechanisms,we show that firms experienced significant output expansion,increased export dependence,and eased financial constraints after foreign acquisition.

产教融合背景下高职外贸专业人才培养模式构建探索

深化产教融合,注重教育、人才与产业链紧密对接,在人力资源供给侧结构性改革中至关重要,有助于全面提升教育质量、扩大就业及推动经济转型和升级。文章以广东省高职院校外贸专业为例,剖析其人才培养模式存在的问题,并提出构建适应产教融合的人才培养模式的策略,以期为提升高职外贸专业人才培养质量、促进产教深度融合提供参考,助力经济新动能的培育与发展。

习近平法治思想指导下国内法治与涉外法治的统筹推进——基于中国式现代化法治国家的构建视角

作为新时代习近平法治思想的重要组成部分,统筹推进国内法治与涉外法治是在准确把握国际国内两个大局的基础上,又立足法治中国建设的实践进程和面临的风险挑战,为更好地维护国家主权、安全和发展而提出的,对中国式现代化法治国家构建有着积极作用。既符合时代发展逻辑,更能加快法治中国建设步伐,有助于国际法治朝着良性轨道发展,是内蕴开放性、包容性和多元性理念的关键选择。统筹推进国内法治与涉外法治,应当在习近平法治思想指导下,以党的二十大精神为指引,以构建中国式现代化法治国家为出发点和落脚点,以厘清国内法治与涉外法治间的相互关系为基本逻辑,以明晰与完善国内国际双重法律规制为具体实践路径。不仅要重点解决国内法治与国际法治的良性对接问题,完善国内法律体系以应对国际法治变革,更要认真审视国际法律规范在我国域内的适用,积极推动国际法规则的发展演进。

智慧城市建设能否促进数实融合?——基于双重机器学习的因果推断

智慧城市试点是中国推进新型城镇化建设的重要政策之一,也是实现数实融合的重要手段。基于2010-2021年中国282个地级及以上城市数据,以智慧城市试点政策为准自然实验,运用双重机器学习模型实证分析智慧城市建设对城市数实融合的影响及其作用机制。研究表明:(1)智慧城市建设能够显著促进数实融合,该结论在样本缩尾、增加样本维度、调整样本等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。(2)智慧城市建设通过促进产业结构升级、提升数字治理水平和扩大对外贸易,进而促进数实融合。(3)智慧城市建设在非资源城市、非老工业基地、中小城市、宽松环境规制地区表现出显著的数实融合正向效应。(4)智慧城市建设在促进数实融合方面具有空间协调效应,能够在全国、省份以及地区层面缩小数实融合的相对发展差距。研究结论为中国深化数实融合、加快推动区域经济协调发展提供理论支撑和政策启示。

中国各地区内外贸模式及其融入新发展格局研究

中国各省(区、市)如何融入新发展格局,需要深刻认识各省(区、市)对内对外贸易特征。综合定性分析和定量分析结果,中国各省(区、市)的内外贸模式可以划分为双循环经济、外向型经济、自洽型经济、均衡型经济、内贸型经济、沿边型经济、输入型经济等七种类型。随着中国各地区经济发展形势的不断分化,外向型经济地区的外贸依存度大幅下降,多数地区基础设施投资能力降低,中国经济发展格局面临重塑。各地区要融入新发展格局,一是要提升国际大循环的质量和水平,二是要增强国内大循环的动力,三是要增强经济双循环的安全性和可靠性。

贸易便利化能否促进企业数字化转型——兼论市场内外贸一体化的经济效应

百年未有之大变局在新冠疫情的冲击下加速演进,全球经贸复苏前景曲折复杂,贸易便利化成为贸易强国与数字强国双重加持下推进高水平对外开放的重要抓手。基于2008—2020年中国上市公司数据,实证研究了贸易便利化对中国企业数字化转型的影响。结果表明:贸易便利化能够显著促进企业数字化转型,并对有出口行为的企业、非技术密集型企业和有非海外背景高管的企业作用更显著。进一步研究发现,贸易便利化通过成本效应、创新效应和风险承担效应助力了企业数字化转型,进而推动本地内外贸一体化,且对内贸转外贸的促进作用更为明显。贸易便利化为企业优化数字化转型外部条件提供了突破口。根据研究结论,提出了推动高水平制度型开放、塑造企业数字化转型新优势,优化转型支持系统、激活企业数字化转型源动力,抓住贸易便利化带来的数字化红利、赋能企业内外贸一体化等对策建议。

推进企业内外贸一体化经营的思考

内外贸一体化经营对于扩大国内外需求、促进经济增长和高质量发展有至关重要作用。为研究内外贸一体化融合发展中存在的问题和对应措施,分析了内外贸一体化的内涵和必要性以及当前政策与实施成果及企业内外贸一体化过程中存在的挑战,提出了具体的政策引导思路和实施路径。通过财政支持、税收优惠、金融服务等多维度的政策措施,旨在促进企业内外贸一体化发展,以应对全球化挑战,提高国际竞争力。此外,还强调了政策融合、机构合作与标准统一对于推进内外贸一体化的重要性。

贸易政策不确定性与全球生产网络——基于内外资企业异质性视角

在逆全球化与贸易保护主义抬头的背景下,区分内外资企业在全球生产网络中的不同角色地位,以及有效应对不确定性贸易政策带来的冲击,对于探索内外资企业的差异化发展路径具有重要意义。基于反倾销发起方和非涉案方(第三方)视角,采用能够反映内外资企业异质性的AMNE数据库,考察反倾销引致的贸易政策不确定性对内外资企业全球生产网络地位的影响效应。研究发现:以反倾销调查衡量的贸易政策不确定性会促进反倾销发起方及非涉案方的外资企业生产网络地位攀升,其中对发达国家、制造业与反倾销发起方境内的外资企业生产网络地位促进作用更显著;贸易政策不确定性会对发起方及非涉案方的内资企业生产网络地位产生负向影响,其中对发展中国家、非制造业与反倾销非涉案方境内的内资企业生产网络地位抑制作用更显著;被调查国的OFDI会增强贸易政策不确定性对外资企业全球生产网络地位的正向效应以及对内资企业全球生产网络地位的负向效应。

外贸内卷化、出口退税与企业出口国内附加值率

长期以来,我国出口企业面临来自国内外同类企业的双重竞争,容易出现为抢夺代工订单和抢占市场份额而竞相压价、生产低端同质产品的“外贸内卷化”现象,这是推动我国经贸高质量发展亟需探讨的问题。以微观企业为研究对象,研究外贸内卷化对企业出口国内附加值率的影响,进而分析出口退税政策在这一过程中是否能够起到调节作用。结果表明:外贸内卷化对企业出口国内附加值率有负面影响,而出口退税政策有助于缓解这种负面影响。机制分析发现,出口退税通过企业利润提升效应和一般贸易占比提升效应帮助企业缓解外贸内卷化的负面影响。因此,应进一步完善出口退税政策,实行不完全且有差别的增值税退税政策,以更好地发挥其引导企业出口行为选择的作用,走出外贸内卷化困境。

数字贸易促进国内市场一体化构建研究

基于数字贸易视角,探讨数字贸易的理论内涵和发展路径,在此基础上分析数字贸易如何通过赋能市场一体化建设,构建全国统一大市场。在理论分析的框架中,使用数据展开检验,研究发现数字贸易显著推动了市场一体化的进程;对于消费规模更大、营商环境更开放、创新水平更高和长三角区域的城市,数字贸易推动市场一体化的作用更强;同时,数字贸易通过降低信息成本、促进市场竞争和提高全要素生产率促进市场一体化的进程。从理论与实证层面探讨数字贸易对市场一体化的影响,厘清市场一体化与全国统一大市场建设的内在联系,为推进中国式现代化提供理论依据与政策启示。

进口葡萄酒在中国市场的分销渠道演进

1992—2022年,进口葡萄酒在中国市场的分销渠道演进大致经历了3个典型阶段:由外资型贸易商在部分一线城市发挥主导作用、国内酒类流通大商深入参与并推动渠道全国化和各类大中小型运营商建设线上、线下复合型渠道。文章以国内营商环境改善与优化、民众消费逐步升级为背景,分析进口葡萄酒分销商这一市场主体在此过程中的组成结构与变换逻辑,并探讨在特定市场发展阶段下各市场主体采用不同分销模式的商业动机、运营思路及其对市场竞争格局、行业发展走向所产生的一系列持续性影响。

基于VAR模型的专业市场与跨境电商融合发展研究

专业市场如何应对电子商务冲击,是近二十年来各界普遍关注的现实问题。跨境电商和市场采购两种新业态新模式已成为我国外贸高质量发展的新引擎,专业市场与跨境电商的关系从冲击应对走向融合发展。浙江省义乌市是专业市场和跨境电商的改革前沿阵地。利用义乌市2008—2022年的时间序列数据,建立向量自回归模型,定量分析专业市场与跨境电商的融合发展关系。结果表明:专业市场生态体系有利于跨境电商“嵌入式”发展,专业市场的持续改革有效应对了跨境电商冲击,但两者融合发展仍缺乏互动效应和长效机制。为进一步促进两者融合发展,应搭建专业市场跨境电商平台、叠加商流和信息流带动产业转型升级、融通跨境电商进口贸易供应链和配套政策。

新质生产力赋能内外贸一体化:逻辑理路与纾解方略

新质生产力是高质量发展的内在要求,内外贸一体化是高水平对外开放和扩大内需的必然要求。文章诠释了新质生产力与内外贸一体化的内涵维度、表征维度、价值维度,厘清了新质生产力推进内外贸一体化的逻辑理路,分析了新质生产力推进内外贸一体化进程中的制约瓶颈,并提出了相应的纾解方略。其逻辑理路具体表现为:通过技术突破性创新以增强全球供应链整合性、生产要素高效配置以推动贸易结构升级优化、产业深度转型升级以加强全球价值链延展性、新业态新模式形成以拓展全新的贸易空间。目前,新质生产力推进内外贸一体化的进程中还存在一些现实问题。基于此,其纾解方略应当采用前沿技术升级完善新贸易基础设施、多方参与确立培养体系和加强在职培训、推动技术标准统一及构建数据同步机制、更新多边贸易协议及建立区域贸易协定。

外贸企业由外循环为主转向内循环为主的现实梗阻、经验启示与对策建议

加快内外贸一体化发展是构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的内在要求。为此,基于自身发展与外部环境,外贸企业亟须由外循环为主转向内循环为主,实现内外贸融合发展。当前,由于客场全球化的全球价值链参与模式、国内市场的隐形分割、内外贸管理体制的差异导致外贸企业转型面临一系列现实梗阻。为此,一方面从外贸企业内在动力出发,以双循环标杆企业“苏美达股份有限公司”为例,重点剖析、梳理并总结其从外循环转内循环的阶段性事实演变、成功做法与经验启示,为其他外贸企业转型提供借鉴;另一方面,从政策外在推力角度出发,提出了紧抓内外贸一体化的政策契机、促进规则与标准统一,加快建设统一大市场、降低国内市场的隐形壁垒,充分发挥开放平台的作用、打造内外贸融合发展的制度高地,多措并举系统施策、强化金融财税等各项政策支持力度的对策建议。