Urban growth scenario projection using heuristic cellular automata in arid areas considering the drought impact

Arid areas with low precipitation and sparse vegetation typically yield compact urban pattern,and drought directly impacts urban site selection,growth processes,and future scenarios.Spatial simulation and projection based on cellular automata(CA)models is important to achieve sustainable urban development in arid areas.We developed a new CA model using bat algorithm(BA)named bat algorithm-probability-of-occurrence-cellular automata(BA-POO-CA)model by considering drought constraint to accurately delineate urban growth patterns and project future scenarios of Urumqi City and its surrounding areas,located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.We calibrated the BA-POO-CA model for the drought-prone study area with 2000 and 2010 data and validated the model with 2010 and 2020 data,and finally projected its urban scenarios in 2030.The results showed that BA-POO-CA model yielded overall accuracy of 97.70%and figure-of-merits(FOMs)of 35.50%in 2010,and 97.70%and 26.70%in 2020,respectively.The inclusion of drought intensity factor improved the performance of BA-POO-CA model in terms of FOMs,with increases of 5.50%in 2010 and 7.90%in 2020 than the model excluding drought intensity factor.This suggested that the urban growth of Urumqi City was affected by drought,and therefore taking drought intensity factor into account would contribute to simulation accuracy.The BA-POO-CA model including drought intensity factor was used to project two possible scenarios(i.e.,business-as-usual(BAU)scenario and ecological scenario)in 2030.In the BAU scenario,the urban growth dominated mainly in urban fringe areas,especially in the northern part of Toutunhe District,Xinshi District,and Midong District.Using exceptional and extreme drought areas as a spatial constraint,the urban growth was mainly concentrated in the"main urban areas-Changji-Hutubi"corridor urban pattern in the ecological scenario.The results of this research can help to adjust urban planning and development policies.Our model is readily applicable to simulating urban growth and future scenarios in global arid areas such as Northwest China and Africa.

Agricultural intensity for sustainable regional development:A case study in peri-urban areas of Karawang Regency,Indonesia

Peri-urban areas are playing an increasingly crucial role in the agricultural development and intensification in Indonesia.Peri-urban agriculture is highly vulnerable to change compared with urban and rural agriculture,due to its location in transitional areas.Indicators of peri-urban agricultural intensity can help guide regional development.In this study,we assessed the sustainability of peri-urban areas based on agricultural intensity in Karawang Regency,Indonesia.We developed a village-based index to assess the region’s agricultural intensity by rescaling the village agriculture index(VAI)and combining the local sustainability index(LSI)with factor analysis.Since the unit of analysis is the village,we modified the LSI to the village sustainability index(VSI).In addition,we also developed a logical matrix analysis to determine the level of agricultural sustainability(LoAS)of each village.The combined results of the three indices(VAI,VSI,and LoAS)generated information about agricultural sustainability.The results indicated that peri-urban villages with high agricultural intensity tended to exhibit low levels of social welfare,economic development,and disaster risk.Moreover,high agricultural intensity did not necessarily ensure the prosperity of the people.Instead,there was the economic disparity among the villages in the study area.Encouraging diversity of agricultural intensity seems to be more critical than promoting agricultural intensity itself.Overall,this study highlights the distinctive characteristics and dynamic of peri-urban areas.New approaches,variables,and information regarding the combination of agricultural intensity and sustainability need to be developed as valuable tools for regional planning.

Monitoring of Respiratory Infections in the Intensive Area of Respiratory System Disease

Respiratory infections are the most frequent nosocomial infections after those urinaries and surgicals. We analysed respiratory infection incidences in patients treated with different kinds of respiratory assistance (non-invasive ventilation and invasive mechanical ventilation trough tracheostomy), studying 640 patients recovering in the intensive area of respiratory disease from 2010 to 2013. We had 113 cases of respiratory infections: 42.5% in patients of non-invasive ventilation group and 57.5% of patients treated with invasive ventilation with a statistically significant difference between the two groups. The patients treated with non-invasive ventilation showed a lower incidence of nosocomial respiratory infections. Prevention guidelines are important to reduce nosocomial infections frequency.

Discussion on the Index System of Intensive Land Use Evaluation in Development Area

The establishment of evaluation index system is the key to the evaluation of intensive land use.On the basis of expounding connotation,characteristics and the principle of establishing evaluation index system,and as for the problems existing in Evaluation Regulation(Trial)of Intensive Land Use in Development Area,regarding the evaluation index system of intensive land use in the development area,in the light of the connotation of intensive land use in development area,coupled with the practical situation of the land use in China's development area,after referring to the research achievements of domestic and abroad scholars,some suggestions are put forward in order to improve and perfect the evaluation index system of intensive land us in development area.

Soil and Water Resources and Land Sustainable Productivity in the Catchment Area with Intensive Management in Hilly Red Soil Regions,China

Taking an example of Majiayu Catchment Area (14.15 ha) in Taoyuan County of HunanProvince, the soil and water resources dynamics, fertility evolution characteristics andland productivity changing situation were studied. Fixed observation results from 1993to 2002 showed that pools covering about 15% of total area could store up 10% of surfacerunoff, keep 78.1% of eroded soil and 65.4% of lost nutrients. The yearly ratio ofinterception and evapotranspiration in land, storage in pools and drainage was 7:2:1,which ensured the resources and nutrients equilibrium and a benign recycle in thecatchment area system, and benefited the aquatic culture and helped to resist seasonaldrought. Moreover, the results showed that soil erosion modulus decreased significantly,equal to or lower than soil loss tolerance (≤500 tkm-2) in reddish yellow soil regions.Soil organic matter, total and available N content in sloping land, dryland and paddyfield increased steadily (>10%); water storage enhanced by more than 20% in sloping landand dryland in drought season; crop production increased by more than 20%; and productionof trees, fruits, tea and fish as well as land productivity increased yearly.

Database Management System Construction for the Evaluation Results of Intensive Land Use in the Development Areas of Hunan Province

Using spatial data integration and database technology,analyzing and integrating the assessment results in all the development zones at different time in Hunan Province,the paper is intended to construct the database and managerial system for the assessment results of land use intensity in development zones,thus formulating"one map"of Hunan Development zones and realizing the integrated management and application of the assessment results in all the development zones at any time of Hunan above the provincial level.It has been proved that the system has good application effect and promising development in land management for land management departments and development zones.

Direct measurement of the three-dimensional distribution of leaf area density and light conditions in a mature oak stand by the cube method

Although the distributions of foliage and light play major roles in various forest functions,accurate,nondestructive measurement of these distributions is difficult due to the complexity of the canopy structure.To evaluate the foliage and light distributions directly and nondestructively in a mature oak stand,we used the cube method by dividing the forest canopy into small cubes(50 cm per side)and directly measured leaf area density(LAD,the total one-sided leaf area per unit volume,i.e.,cube)and relative irradiance(RI)within each cube.The distribution of LAD and of RI was highly heterogeneous,even at the same canopy height.This heterogeneity reflected the presence of foliage clusters associated with multiple forking branches.The relationship between cumulative LAD at the canopy surface and average RI followed the Beer-Lambert law.The mean light extinction coefficient(K)was 0.32.However,K was overestimated by more than double(0.80)when calculated based on the classical method using RI at the forest floor.This overestimation was caused by the lower RI due to light absorption by nonleaf plant parts below the canopy.Our findings on the complex foliage and light distributions in canopy layers should help improve the accuracy of RI and K measurements and thus more accurate predictions of environmental responses and forest functions.

我国黄土高原地区地震动衰减关系研究的若干进展

地震动的衰减关系是指地震动随震级、距离和场地条件等变化的经验关系,近年来在我国亦被称为地震动预测方程,是估计地震动及其影响场的主要方法之一,在地震区划和重大工程场地地震安全性评价中被广泛应用。黄土是一种特殊土,在我国广泛分布。我国黄土高原地区地质构造复杂,新构造活动强烈,中强地震频发,地震动的衰减关系有其特殊性,总结我国黄土高原地区地震动衰减关系的研究成果对促进黄土高原地区抗震研究有重要意义。在简要介绍国内外地震动衰减关系研究的基础上,全面系统地总结我国学者在黄土高原地区的地震烈度衰减关系,基岩和土层场地地震动峰值加速度、峰值速度、峰值位移以及反应谱衰减关系方面的研究成果;评述和讨论在黄土覆盖地区地震动衰减研究领域存在的问题和今后的研究方向。文章的研究工作对从事黄土高原地区地震工程研究的科技人员有重要参考价值。

海域地震动强度包络模型研究

人工模拟地震动是目前开展海洋工程结构抗震分析的主要地震输入分析。强度包络函数是人工模拟地震动的重要参数,决定了地震动的强度非平稳性特性,并对地震动持时起控制作用。目前的地震动强度包络模型均是基于陆域地震动记录统计分析得出,无法准确反应海域地震动的强度特性。因此,基于日本K-Net强震动观测台网的实测地震数据库,分析海域地震动在时域中强度分布特性;提出适用于海域地震动的三段式强度包络模型,回归得到震级M、震中距R及关键参数上升段t_(1)、强震平稳段ts、下降段衰减率c(无量纲)的计算表达式;研究震级、震中距对海域地震动强度包络模型的影响规律,并探讨海域地震动与陆域地震动强度包络模型的异同。研究结果表明:海域地震动强度包络模型中关键参数上升段t_(1)、强震平稳段ts、下降段衰减率c的取值范围分别为[13~52 s],[12~79 s],[0.037~0.173];震级对关键参数(t_(1)、t_(s)、c)的影响要大于震中距;与陆域地震动相比,海域地震动的强度包络模型的下降段衰减率c相差显著,且各关键参数的分布范围更大。

基于AAA算法的三种调强方式在宫颈癌放射治疗中的剂量学比较

目的比较宫颈癌术后放射治疗中容积旋转调强(RA)、动态调强(SW)、动态调强固定钨门(FJ)技术3种调强方式的剂量学差异。方法选取2023年1-5月于徐州市肿瘤医院接受宫颈癌术后放射治疗的30例患者,使用Eclipse 13.5治疗计划系统(调用AAA算法),对所有患者分别设计RA、SW、FJ 3种调强方式的放射治疗计划。根据剂量体积直方图(DVH)比较计划靶区(PTV)平均剂量(Dmean)、靶区适形指数(CI)、均匀指数(HI)及危及器官(OARs)脊髓、直肠、股骨头等的受照射剂量,并比较加速器跳数(MU)及低剂量区指数(LDAI)。结果3种调强方式PTV的Dmean比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);靶区CI、HI、直肠V40、膀胱V40、加速器MU方面RA技术优势明显。小肠V40、双侧股骨头的最大剂量(Dmax)、低剂量区指数(LDAI),RA表现不如SW和FJ,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论RA可以明显缩短治疗时间,提高治疗效率,且靶区适形度和均匀性更好,但对膀胱、直肠和小肠的高剂量控制不如SW和FJ,因此推荐在宫颈癌放射治疗计划设计中优先考虑使用RA调强方式。

中国陆上风电开发土地需求的定量研究

随着气候变化、能源短缺等问题的日益突出,大规模开发可再生清洁能源已成为世界各国的普遍选择。其中,陆上风电以其技术成熟、安全高效的优势,在全球能源转型的进程中发挥着重要作用。然而,风能资源具有能量密度低、不稳定和空间分散等特点,大规模开发陆上风电需要大量土地资源支撑。为保障碳中和目标下风电发展的土地资源需求,该研究对中国陆上风电的土地占用情况进行了定量研究。首先,以排他性为界定标准,从时空维度重新划分了风电场土地占用类型。其次,融合样本参数法和α形状算法,分类核算了中国现有陆上风电场的占地面积。最后,综合考虑风电技术发展趋势,系统模拟预测了碳中和目标下不同发展情景的中国风电用地需求。结果表明:①基于排他性原则,风电场总占地面积在空间维度上可分为直接影响区域和间接影响区域两部分;直接影响区域在时间维度上可分为永久用地和临时用地两部分。②2022年中国陆上风电场风机基础占地、永久用地、临时用地和直接影响区域占地面积分别达到48.28 km^(2)、352.08 km^(2)、1234.86 km^(2)和1638.81 km^(2)。③2022年中国陆上风电场间接影响区域占地面积和总占地面积分别达到了9.81×10^(4)km^(2)和9.99×10^(4)km^(2),总占地面积几乎与全国城镇总用地面积相当。④与当前技术水平情景相比,技术进步与风机换代情景下,2060年中国风电各类用地需求均有大幅下降,且用地需求在2050年前后达到峰值,风电机组的大型化替代对土地资源的节约潜力巨大。因此,完善风电建设用地标准、提升风电开发用地效率、统筹推进海上风电建设,是协同风能资源开发与土地资源可持续利用的重要路径。

塔里木盆地哈拉哈塘—哈得地区中生界物源转换及沉积充填响应

通过矿物成分分析、砂地比计算、地震属性分析及测井响应特征识别等技术手段,对塔里木盆地哈拉哈塘—哈得地区中生界典型沉积时期的古地貌形态、沉积体系展布、地层及砂体发育特征等进行了研究。研究结果表明:(1)塔里木盆地哈拉哈塘—哈得地区三叠系物源主要来自东北部的天山造山带,其ZTR系数由东北部向凹陷中央逐渐增大;侏罗系和白垩系物源主要来自东南部和南部的昆仑山造山带,其ZTR系数由北部、南部向凹陷中央逐渐增大。(2)三叠纪晚期,随着古特提斯洋的增生,研究区北部天山的隆升强度减弱与南部昆仑山的隆升强度增大是此次物源转换的主要原因。(3)三叠纪,研究区的沉降-沉积中心位于南部,主要发育了一套北东—南西向的辫状河三角洲—深水湖泊沉积;侏罗纪和白垩纪,沉降-沉积中心则跃迁到研究区北部,主要发育了一套南东—北西向和南—北向的辫状河三角洲—浅水湖泊沉积。(4)三叠纪,砂体叠置样式的前积方向主要为北东—南西方向;侏罗纪和白垩纪,砂体叠置样式的前积方向主要为南东—北西方向和南—北方向。(5)三叠系岩性油气藏主要发育于研究区西南部,侏罗系和白垩系岩性油气藏主要发育于研究区西北部和北部。

集约用地视角下生态敏感区村庄用地更新研究——以北海大健康生态新区为例

在我国土地资源稀缺、大量空间需求矛盾及大力实施乡村振兴战略的背景下,村庄用地更新成为获取建设空间增量的有效手段,尤其是生态敏感区内的村庄,建设用地的合理布局对于区域生态系统与人类活动之间的平衡具有重要意义。文章以广西壮族自治区北海市大健康生态新区的规划实践为例,探讨集约用地理念下的生态敏感区村庄用地更新方法,首先对现状生态环境和用地布局进行解译,归纳其生态基底特征、用地布局形式与实践难题;其次提出集约用地布局策略,包括确定建设用地及空间管制分区、制定生态保护与安全韧性策略、解译并延续现状肌理与用地模式、植入功能业态与风貌协调,以期为生态敏感区的村庄用地更新实践提供参考。

基于综合强度指数和受灾面积的区域性暴雨过程的客观识别及特征分析

本文提出一种基于综合强度指数和受灾面积的区域性暴雨过程客观识别标准确定方法。以河北省为例,利用1971~2020年河北省142个国家气象观测站逐日降水数据,选取最大过程降水量、最大日降水量、影响范围、持续时间、平均强度和平均范围为评估指标,构建了6种区域性暴雨过程综合强度指数模型;基于综合强度指数与受灾面积相关性分析,判定最优的综合强度评估方法,进而确定了河北省区域性暴雨过程的最优客观识别标准。利用本标准对河北省区域性暴雨过程进行识别,并分析时空变化特征。结果表明:本方法可有效确定区域性暴雨过程识别标准,识别结果与灾情资料具有较好的一致性和相关性,适用于区域性暴雨过程客观化识别,易于应用推广。1971~2020年,河北省共发生区域性暴雨过程252次,年均5.0次,发生次数呈下降趋势,综合强度指数呈不明显下降;区域性暴雨过程4~11月均有发生,主要集中在7、8月,出现次数占全年总次数的77%;区域性暴雨过程发生站次分布呈西北少东南多的趋势,主要集中在中部、南部和环渤海地区,西北地区最少。

高烈度区长联PC连续梁桥减隔震措施分析

为了明确高烈度区长联预应力混凝土(prestressed concrete,PC)连续梁桥滑动摩擦摆式支座的减隔震性能,针对设防烈度为9度的某长联PC连续梁桥,利用CSiBridge软件建立大桥空间梁单元非线性分析模型,以普通球型钢支座地震响应为基准,对比分析铅芯橡胶支座与滑动摩擦摆式支座的减隔震性能,并对滑动摩擦摆式支座的摩擦系数和支座曲率进行参数分析。结果表明:在长联连续梁桥中,相比于铅芯橡胶支座,滑动摩擦摆式支座减隔震效果更好,固定墩内力与变形更小,全桥受力更加均匀合理;对于滑动摩擦摆式支座,摩擦系数越大,长联连续梁固定墩墩底弯矩与墩顶位移越大,摩擦系数变化20%,固定墩墩底弯矩最大值变化约1.67%,墩顶位移极值变化约1.45%;支座曲率半径对长联连续梁地震响应的减隔震性能影响较小,曲率半径增大1.5 m,固定墩墩底弯矩最大值增大约0.97%,固定墩墩顶位移增幅约为0.37%~1.39%。

西安都市圈生态系统服务价值与人类活动强度的时空关系

人类活动是影响生态系统服务价值(ecosystem service value,ESV)变化的重要原因之一,对两者时空关系的研究有助于生态环境与社会经济协调发展。以西安都市圈为研究对象,基于1990、2000、2010和2018年4期土地利用数据,在2 km×2 km格网尺度下构建ESV评估模型、ESV流向损益模型、人类活动强度(human activity intensity,HAI)指数评估模型和双变量空间自相关模型,探讨ESV与人类活动强度的时空关系。结果表明:(1)1990—2018年间,西安都市圈ESV在时间尺度上呈持续下降趋势,近30年间共降低12.8亿元;在空间尺度上呈现以西安主城区为中心向外围递增的分布格局;(2)ESV增益主要源于耕地转为林地、水域和草地;ESV亏损主要源于耕地、建设用地的转入以及水域的转出;(3)人类活动强度整体呈现以西安主城区为中心向南北递减的空间分布格局,高影响区集中分布在西安主城区及其周边地区,低影响区分布于研究区南北两端;(4)ESV与人类活动强度呈负相关关系,两者聚类关系以低-高和高-低聚集方式为主,低-高和高-低聚集区域显著性水平高。期望通过对ESV与人类活动强度的空间关系分析为区域可持续发展提供理论支持。

Analysis on Spatio-temporal Distribution of Lightning in Dalian Area of China between 2007 and 2008

The cloud-to-ground lightning data between 2007 and 2008 were collected by lightning detection and location system,which was composed of four lightning detectors in four different sites of Dalian area.The spatio-temporal distribution of cloud-to-ground lightning in surrounding areas of Dalian was analyzed from several aspects of polarity distribution,diurnal variation,lightning intensity and lightning density.The results showed that the number of negative lightning accounted for 93.9% of the total number of lightning,and its average lightning intensity was 27.99 kA.The number of positive lightning accounted for 6.1% of the total number of lightning,and its average lightning intensity was 35.56 kA.The diurnal variation of lightning frequency showed an obvious structure of two peaks (17:00-18:00 and 04:00-05:00) and two valleys (09:00-10:00 and 00:00-01:00).The number of lightning between May and September was 91.5% of the annual number,and the lightning occurred the most frequently between June and August.Most of positive and negative lightning was at the intensity of 15-35 kA,80.0% lower than 40 kA,and 99.3% lower than 100 kA.The lightning density had obvious regional differences in distribution,high in the Liaodong Bay and the Dalian Bay and low in inland areas.Therefore,coastal areas should attract more attention in lightning disaster defense in the surrounding areas of Dalian.

高寒草地牧草生长季放牧强度对藏系绵羊体增重的影响

为探讨牧草生长季不同生长时期和放牧强度对藏羊体增重的影响,以藏系绵羊为研究对象,基于不同放牧强度在高寒草地开展了重度(每公顷5.13个羊单位)、中度(每公顷3.92个羊单位)和轻度(每公顷3.03个羊单位)的藏羊放牧试验。结果表明:1)不同年际间受环境影响,藏羊日增重存在差异,不同年际当中藏羊日增重为牧草返青期和生长期高于牧草枯黄期,且在牧草枯黄期藏羊日增重存在负增长的现象,线性回归分析结果表明藏羊日增重和牧草生长时期存在斜率为显著负相关(y=0.3088−0.1107x)的直线关系;2)牧草生长季不同放牧强度下藏羊个体日增重、暖季增重、单位草地面积增重无显著差异(P>0.05),但各年际当中藏羊暖季增重均为中度高于轻度和重度,单位草地面积增重均为轻度低于中度和重度。综上所述,不同放牧强度利用高寒草地暖季放牧场,藏羊体增重从牧草返青期到生长期再到枯黄期逐渐降低,以家畜生产为主兼顾草地的合理利用,高寒草地以中度放牧利用为宜。

1995—2020年浙江省大陆岸线变化及驱动因素分析

随着沿海地区经济的快速发展,海岸带生态环境所面临的形势愈发严峻.为了掌握浙江省大陆岸线变迁特征及其驱动因素,实现海洋的可持续发展,选取其沿海27个区(县)为研究区,采用岸线变迁强度、人工化指数和开发利用强度等多种定量化分析手段研究其时空分布特征,并通过灰色关联度模型对浙江省大陆岸线演变的驱动因素进行了分析.结果表明:1)1995—2020年,浙江省的大陆岸线变迁强度逐渐加强,人工岸线逐渐增加,人工化指数由0.57增长到0.69,但增速逐渐趋于缓慢;2)研究区各时段的岸滩面积之和大于总时段的岸滩面积,说明浙江省大陆岸线在不断向海扩张的同时也发生了部分侵蚀;3)综合各项指标来看,1995—2020年,浙江省大陆岸线受人类干扰程度呈现先加剧后减缓的趋势;4)按选取的指标与岸线长度关联度平均值由大到小排序为年末人口总数、年平均温度、年降水量、渔业养殖面积、渔业生产总量、居民用地面积和GDP.

红壤丘陵区马尾松林和湿地松林物候特征的时空变异及影响因素

【目的】探究马尾松林和湿地松林物候期的时空变异及影响因素,为红壤丘陵区森林碳汇时空格局精准评估与预测提供理论支撑。【方法】基于2017—2021年的数码相机时间序列数据,提取29块样地(马尾松林18块,湿地松林11块)的有效叶面积指数(LAIe)时空动态。采用有效叶面积指数的广义双重逻辑斯蒂模型确定物候期指标(生长季开始时间,SOS;生长季结束时间,EOS;生长季长度,LOS)。利用变异系数表征物候期时空变异幅度。通过皮尔逊相关分析和线性混合模型,解析气候(干旱指数、空气温度、降水量、饱和水汽压差、光合有效辐射)、土壤(土壤温湿度、土层厚度、石砾含量)和生物因子(林分密度、林下植被丰富度)对物候期的驱动作用。【结果】1)马尾松林和湿地松林物候特征均为单峰曲线(但马尾松林无明显峰值)。与马尾松林相比,湿地松林的SOS较晚,但LAIe的季节变化幅度更大且值更高。2)马尾松林的物候期在时空尺度上不如湿地松林稳定。马尾松林的SOS、EOS、LOS在空间上的变异系数和SOS在时间上的变异系数均大于湿地松林。3)在年际尺度上,马尾松林的SOS和EOS分别与早春和旱季0~120 cm土层的土壤含水量呈负相关和正相关;湿地松林的EOS与旱季0~60 cm土层的土壤含水量呈正相关。4)在空间尺度上,马尾松林物候期受林分密度、草本层物种丰富度和0~60 cm土壤石砾含量影响。【结论】马尾松林和湿地松林的物候特征在曲线峰值、SOS、LAIe变化幅度和数值大小等方面存在明显差异。湿地松林的物候期在时空尺度上更稳定。种内、种间竞争强度和土壤资源异质性共同驱动了红壤丘陵区马尾松林物候的时空变异格局。