Research on a Monte Carlo global variance reduction method based on an automatic importance sampling method

Global variance reduction is a bottleneck in Monte Carlo shielding calculations.The global variance reduction problem requires that the statistical error of the entire space is uniform.This study proposed a grid-AIS method for the global variance reduction problem based on the AIS method,which was implemented in the Monte Carlo program MCShield.The proposed method was validated using the VENUS-Ⅲ international benchmark problem and a self-shielding calculation example.The results from the VENUS-Ⅲ benchmark problem showed that the grid-AIS method achieved a significant reduction in the variance of the statistical errors of the MESH grids,decreasing from 1.08×10^(-2) to 3.84×10^(-3),representing a 64.00% reduction.This demonstrates that the grid-AIS method is effective in addressing global issues.The results of the selfshielding calculation demonstrate that the grid-AIS method produced accurate computational results.Moreover,the grid-AIS method exhibited a computational efficiency approximately one order of magnitude higher than that of the AIS method and approximately two orders of magnitude higher than that of the conventional Monte Carlo method.

Variational Quantum Eigensolver with Mutual Variance-Hamiltonian Optimization

The zero-energy variance principle can be exploited in variational quantum eigensolvers for solving general eigenstates but its capacity for obtaining a specified eigenstate,such as ground state,is limited as all eigenstates are of zero energy variance.We propose a variance-based variational quantum eigensolver for solving the ground state by searching in an enlarged space of wavefunction and Hamiltonian.With a mutual variance-Hamiltonian optimization procedure,the Hamiltonian is iteratively updated to guild the state towards to the ground state of the target Hamiltonian by minimizing the energy variance in each iteration.We demonstrate the performance and properties of the algorithm with numeral simulations.Our work suggests an avenue for utilizing guided Hamiltonian in hybrid quantum-classical algorithms.

Exceptionally high genetic variance of the doubled haploid(DH)population of poplar

Doubled haploid(DH)plants have been widely used for breeding and biological research in crops.Pop ulus spp.have been used as model woody plant species for biological research.However,the induction of DH poplar plants is onerous,and limited biological or breeding work has been carried out on DH individuals or populations.In this study,we provide an effective protocol for poplar haploid induction based on an anther culture method.A total of 96 whole DH plant lines were obtained using an F1hybrid of Populus simonii×P.nigra as a donor tree.The phenotypes of the DH population showed exceptionally high variance when compared to those of half-sib progeny of the donor tree.Each DH line displayed distinct features compared to those of the other DH lines or the donor tree.Additionally,some excellent homozygous lines have the potential to be model plants in genetic and breeding studies.

Mesh‑free semi‑quantitative variance underestimation elimination method in Monte Caro algorithm

The inter-cycle correlation of fission source distributions(FSDs)in the Monte Carlo power iteration process results in variance underestimation of tallied physical quantities,especially in large local tallies.This study provides a mesh-free semiquantitative variance underestimation elimination method to obtain a credible confidence interval for the tallied results.This method comprises two procedures:Estimation and Elimination.The FSD inter-cycle correlation length is estimated in the Estimation procedure using the Sliced Wasserstein distance algorithm.The batch method was then used in the elimination procedure.The FSD inter-cycle correlation length was proved to be the optimum batch length to eliminate the variance underestimation problem.We exemplified this method using the OECD sphere array model and 3D PWR BEAVRS model.The results showed that the average variance underestimation ratios of local tallies declined from 37 to 87%to within±5%in these models.

The Inter-Annual Variability of Rainfall Onset and Its Implication on Crop Planting in Selected East Africa Countries

The inter-annual variability of rainfall onset and crop replanting in East Africa (EA) was assessed using daily estimated rainfall data from climate hazard group infrared precipitation (CHIRPS Ver2.0) and monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) indices [Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at NINO3.4 region] from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The data covered a period of 40 years from1981 to 2020. The methods of cumulative of daily mean rainfall, percentage of onset date departure (PODD), Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, student t-test, and correlation were applied in the analysis. The results showed that early onset with dry spell (WDS) consideration frequently occurs in Uganda between the first and second dekads of September, while late rainfall onset WDS occurs in the first and second dekads of December over central and Northern Kenya as well as in the Northeastern highlands, parts of the northern coast and unimodal regions in Tanzania. Rainfall onset with no dry spell (WnDS) portrayed an average of 10 days before the occurrence of true onset WDS, with maximum onset departure days (ODD) above 30 days across the Rift Valley area in Kenya and the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. The high chance of minimum ODD is seen over entire Uganda and the area around Lake Victoria. However, few regions, such as Nakuru (Kenya) Gulu and Kibale (Uganda), and Gitega (Burundi), revealed a slight positive linear trend while others showed negative trend. Significant positive patterns for correlation between onset WDS and SST indices (IOD and NINO 3.4) were discovered in Northern and Northeastern Kenya, as well as areas along the Indian Ocean (over Tanzania’s Northern Coast). Inter-annual relationship between onset dates WDS and IOD (NINO3.4) indices exhibits a high correlation coefficient r = 0.23 (r = 0.48) in Uganda and r = 0.44 (r = 0.36) in Kenya. On the other hand, a negative correlation was revealed over Burundi and Tanzania (over a unimodal region). A high percentage of PODD was observed, ranging from 40% to 70% over the Rift Valley in Kenya and at the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. However, a strong PODD above 70% was observed over Tanga and the Northern Pwani Region in Tanzania. These findings will help farmers to understand the appropriate time for crop planting, as well as help other socio-economic activities that strongly depend on rainfall.

Performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the dynamic sea level:Mean and interannual variance

本研究采用卫星测高数据与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)海平面动力进行对比,重点针对40S-40N地区的动力海平面(DSL),评估了模式对其平均态与年际变率的综合模拟能力,结果表明,对于DSL平均态的模拟,模式与观测结果非常吻合,模式之间的差异较小.其中,副热带北大西洋是模拟偏差和模式间差异较为显著的区域,对于DSL年际变率的模拟,模式之间保持较高的一致性,但是,模式与观测结果存在明显差异,模式普遍低估了DSL的年际方差;其中,误差大值区域出现在副热带西边界流附近,模式分辨率会影响CMIP6对中小尺度海洋过程的重现能力,这可能是导致CMIP6历史模拟出现误差的原因之一.

Manifold Structure Analysis of Tactical Network Traffic Matrix Based on Maximum Variance Unfolding Algorithm

As modern weapons and equipment undergo increasing levels of informatization,intelligence,and networking,the topology and traffic characteristics of battlefield data networks built with tactical data links are becoming progressively complex.In this paper,we employ a traffic matrix to model the tactical data link network.We propose a method that utilizes the Maximum Variance Unfolding(MVU)algorithm to conduct nonlinear dimensionality reduction analysis on high-dimensional open network traffic matrix datasets.This approach introduces novel ideas and methods for future applications,including traffic prediction and anomaly analysis in real battlefield network environments.

Variance Type of Capsule Morphological Characters in Platycodon grandiflorum Population

[ Objective] The aim was to study variance type of capsule morphological characters in Platycodon grandiflorum population, and provide some theoretical basis for seeking to genetic markers which can differentiate different P. grandiflorum and breeding new varieties. [ Method] According to shape morphological characters of capsule from the same population of perennial purple P. gandiflorum, seven types of distinct di- versity capsule were selected, variance analysis and multiple comparison on the length, diameter, length/diameter of the different types of capsule were carried out. [ Result] There is unicolor and bicolor, even trichrome, among main color was brown and purple. Capsule shape was main cone, furthermore, containing long roller type, spheroidicity and sphericity. [ Conclusion] P. gandiflorum capsule was divided into long form, short form and middle type from length/diameter size in perennial culture P. gandiflorum population.

基于mean-variance的服务集群负载均衡方法

大量并发请求任务进行分配时,负载调度机制是通过最小化响应时间及最大化节点利用率实现网络中节点的负载均衡,在基于遗传算法的负载均衡算法中,适应度函数设计对服务集群负载均衡效率产生重要的影响。对此提出了一种基于mean-variance的服务集群负载均衡方法对适应度函数进行优化,采用投资组合选择模型mean-variance进行最小化响应时间,以得到每个服务器资源利用率的权重,从而获得最优的分配组合,进而提高适应度函数的准确性和有效性。在不同服务环境下与其他模型进行比较,仿真结果表明,本文的负载均衡算法在节点利用率和响应时间方面使服务集群得到了更好的均衡。

Variance Gamma过程与股票期权定价中的波动率偏度的纠正

针对 Black- Scholes期权定价模型在股票期权定价中的波动率偏度的定价偏差 ,介绍一种新的改进模型来纠正波动率偏度 ,这种改进模型是通过将 Black- Scholes期权定价模型中的布朗运动过程替换为 variance gamma过程来实现的。在给出相应欧式看涨期权价格的解析解的基础上 ,对改进模型的定价性能进行实证检验。

摩擦市场条件下的Mean-Variance-Skewness模型

在投资组合选择模型中考虑了资产收益率分布中正的偏度水平,并通过引入一些市场摩擦因素建立了摩擦市场条件下的Mean-Variance-Skewness模型.提出了一个新的遗传算法加速其搜索收敛过程,解决了该模型的计算复杂性问题.在该模型框架内对交易费用和税收等市场摩擦因素进行了敏感性分析.研究证明资产收益率分布的偏度水平是与投资者的决策相关的,市场摩擦因素对投资者的决策行为也有直接的影响.因此,考虑摩擦市场条件下基于正偏度水平偏好的最优投资组合模型对投资者有很强的实践指导价值.

Turbulent Variance Characteristics of Temperature and Humidity over a Non-uniform Land Surface for an Agricultural Ecosystem in China

This paper describes the application of the variance method for flux estimation over a mixed agricultural region in China. Eddy covariance and flux variance measurements were conducted in a near-surface layer over a non-uniform land surface in the central plain of China from 7 June to 20 July 2002. During this period, the mean canopy height was about 0.50 m. The study site consisted of grass （10% of area）, beans （15%）, corn （15%） and rice （60%）. Under unstable conditions, the standard deviations of temperature and water vapor density （normalized by appropriate scaling parameters）, observed by a single instrument, followed the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The similarity constants for heat （CT） and water vapor （Cq） were 1.09 and 1.49, respectively. In comparison with direct measurements using eddy covariance techniques, the flux variance method, on average, underestimated sensible heat flux by 21% and latent heat flux by 24%, which may be attributed to the fact that the observed slight deviations （20% or 30% at most） of the similarity ＂constants＂ may be within the expected range of variation of a single instrument from the generally-valid relations.

Seismic attenuation relationship with homogeneous and heterogeneous prediction-error variance models

Peak ground acceleration(PGA) estimation is an important task in earthquake engineering practice.One of the most well-known models is the Boore-Joyner-Fumal formula,which estimates the PGA using the moment magnitude,the site-to-fault distance and the site foundation properties.In the present study,the complexity for this formula and the homogeneity assumption for the prediction-error variance are investigated and an effi ciency-robustness balanced formula is proposed.For this purpose,a reduced-order Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for Bayesian model class selection is presented to obtain the most suitable predictive formula and prediction-error model for the seismic attenuation relationship.In this approach,each model class(a predictive formula with a prediction-error model) is evaluated according to its plausibility given the data.The one with the highest plausibility is robust since it possesses the optimal balance between the data fi tting capability and the sensitivity to noise.A database of strong ground motion records in the Tangshan region of China is obtained from the China Earthquake Data Center for the analysis.The optimal predictive formula is proposed based on this database.It is shown that the proposed formula with heterogeneous prediction-error variance is much simpler than the attenuation model suggested by Boore,Joyner and Fumal(1993).

Variance-based fingerprint distance adjustment algorithm for indoor localization

The multipath effect and movements of people in indoor environments lead to inaccurate localization. Through the test, calculation and analysis on the received signal strength indication （RSSI） and the variance of RSSI, we propose a novel variance-based fingerprint distance adjustment algorithm （VFDA）. Based on the rule that variance decreases with the increase of RSSI mean, VFDA calculates RSSI variance with the mean value of received RSSIs. Then, we can get the correction weight. VFDA adjusts the fingerprint distances with the correction weight based on the variance of RSSI, which is used to correct the fingerprint distance. Besides, a threshold value is applied to VFDA to improve its performance further. VFDA and VFDA with the threshold value are applied in two kinds of real typical indoor environments deployed with several Wi-Fi access points. One is a quadrate lab room, and the other is a long and narrow corridor of a building. Experimental results and performance analysis show that in indoor environments, both VFDA and VFDA with the threshold have better positioning accuracy and environmental adaptability than the current typical positioning methods based on the k-nearest neighbor algorithm and the weighted k-nearest neighbor algorithm with similar computational costs.

Multivariable Control Performance Assessment Based on Generalized Minimum Variance Benchmark

This paper is concerned with the control performance assessment based on the multivariable generalized minimum variance benchmark.An explicit expression for the feedback controller-invariant(the generalized minimum variance)term of the multivariable control system is obtained,which is used as a standard benchmark for the assessment of the control performance for multi input multi output(MIMO)process.The proposed approach is based on the multivariable minimum variance benchmark.In comparison with the minimum variance benchmark, the developed method is more reasonable and practical for the control performance assessment of multivariable systems.The approach is illustrated by a simulation example and an industrial application.

OPTIMAL PROPORTIONAL REINSURANCE AND INVESTMENT FOR A CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF VARIANCE MODEL UNDER VARIANCE PRINCIPLE

This article studies the optimal proportional reinsurance and investment problem under a constant elasticity of variance （CEV） model. Assume that the insurer＇s surplus process follows a jump-diffusion process, the insurer can purchase proportional reinsurance from the reinsurer via the variance principle and invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price is modeled by a CEV model. The diffusion term can explain the uncertainty associated with the surplus of the insurer or the additional small claims. The objective of the insurer is to maximize the expected exponential utility of terminal wealth. This optimization problem is studied in two cases depending on the diffusion term＇s explanation. In all cases, by using techniques of stochastic control theory, closed-form expressions for the value functions and optimal strategies are obtained.

A Preliminary Study on the Relationship Between Arctic Oscillation and Daily SLP Variance in the Northern Hemisphere During Wintertime

In the present study, the authors investigated the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the high-frequency variability of daily sea level pressures in the Northern Hemisphere in winter (November through March), using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets for the time period of 1948/49-2000/01. High-frequency signals are defined as those with timescales shorter than three weeks and measured in terms of variance, for each winter for each grid. The correlations between monthly mean AO index and high-frequency variance are conducted. A predominant feature is that several regional centers with high correlation show up in the middle to high latitudes. Significant areas include mid- to high-latitude Asia centered at Siberia, northern Europe and the middle-latitude North Atlantic east of northern Africa. Their strong correlations can also be confirmed by the singular value decomposition analysis of covariance between mean SLP and high-frequency variance. This indicates that the relationship of AO with daily Sea Level Pressure (SLP) is confined to some specific regions in association with the inherent atmospheric dynamics. In middle-latitude Asia, there is a significant (at the 95% level) trend of variance of-2.26% (10 yr)-1. Another region that displays a strong trend is the northwestern Pacific with a significant rate of change of 0.80% (10 yr)-1. If the winter of 1948/49, an apparent outlier, is excluded, a steady linear trend of +1.51% (10 yr)-1 shows up in northern Europe. The variance probability density functions (PDFs) are found to change in association with different AO phases. The changes corresponding to high and low AO phases, however, are asymmetric in these regions. Some regions such as northern Europe display much stronger changes in high AO years, whereas some other regions such as Siberia show a stronger connection to low AO conditions. These features are supported by ECMWF reanalysis data. However, the dynamical mechanisms involved in the AO-high frequency SLP variance connection have not been well understood, and this needs further study.

The low-frequency variance of the ocean surface wave field in the area of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

The low-frequency variance of the surface wave in the area of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current （ACC） and its correlation with the antarctic circumpolar wave （ACW） are focused on. The analysis of the series of 44 a significant wave height （SWH） interannual anomalies reveals that the SWH anomalies have a strong periodicity of about 4-5 a and this signal propagates eastward obviously from 1985 to 1995, which needs about 8 a to complete a mimacircle around the earth. The method of empirical orthogonal function （EOF） is used to analyze the filtered monthly SWH anomalies to study the spatio-temporal distributions and the propagation characteristics of the low-frequency signals in the wave field. Both the dominant wavenumber- 2 pattern in space and the propagation feature in the south Pacific, the south Atlantic and the south Indian ocean show strong consistency with the ACW. So it is reasonable to conclude that the ACW signal also exists in the wave field. The ACW is important for the climate in the Southern Ocean, so it is worth to pay more attention to the large- scale effect of the surface wave, which may also be important for climate studies.

A Modelling Study of Inter-Annual Variation of Kuroshio Intrusion on the Shelf of East China Sea

Inter-annual variability of the Kuroshio water intrusion on the shelf of East China Sea (ECS) was simulated with a nested global and Northwest Pacific ocean circulation model.The model analysis reveals the influence of the variability of Kuroshio transport east of Taiwan on the intrusion to the northeast of Taiwan:high correlation (r=0.92) with the on-shore volume flux in the lower layer (50 200 m) ;low correlation (r=0.50) with the on-shore flux in the upper layer (0 50 m) .Spatial distribution of correlations between volume fluxes and sea surface height suggests that inter-annual variability of the Kuroshio flux east of Taiwan and its subsurface water intruding to the shelf lag behind the sea surface height anomalies in the central Pacific at 162 E by about 14 months,and could be related to wind-forced variation in the interior North Pacific that propagates westward as Rossby waves.The intrusion of Kuroshio surface water is also influenced by local winds.The intruding Kuroshio subsurface water causes variations of temperature and salinity of bottom waters on the southern ECS shelf.The influence of the intruding Kuroshio subsurface water extends widely from the shelf slope northeast of Taiwan northward to the central ECS near the 60 m isobath,and northeastward to the region near the 90 m isobath.

Variance Inflation Factor: As a Condition for the Inclusion of Suppressor Variable(s) in Regression Analysis

Suppression effect in multiple regression analysis may be more common in research than what is currently recognized. We have reviewed several literatures of interest which treats the concept and types of suppressor variables. Also, we have highlighted systematic ways to identify suppression effect in multiple regressions using statistics such as: R2, sum of squares, regression weight and comparing zero-order correlations with Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) respectively. We also establish that suppression effect is a function of multicollinearity;however, a suppressor variable should only be allowed in a regression analysis if its VIF is less than five (5).