Harmonious Inter-decadal Changes of July–August Upper Tropospheric Temperature Across the North Atlantic, Eurasian Continent,and North Pacific

The authors have developed an integral view of the inter-decadal variability of July-August （JA） tropospheric temperature across the entire subtropical Northern Hemisphere. Using reanalysis data and complementary balloon-borne measurements, the authors identify one major mode of variability for the period 1958 2001 which exhibits a significant cooling center over East Asia and warming centers over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The cooling （warming） signals barotropically penetrate through the troposphere, with the strongest anomalies at 200-300 hPa. The amplitude of the cooling over East Asia is stronger than that of the warming over the North Atlantic （North Pacific） by a factor of 2 （3）. This dominant mode exhibits a declining tendency for the entire period examined, particularly before 1980. After the mid-1980s, the tendency has leveled off. Variations of the harmonious change of JA upper tropospheric temperature represented by the principal component of Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis exhibit significant negative （positive） correlations with SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific and the western tropical Indian Ocean （mid-latitude North Pacific）. Possible mechanisms are discussed.

Southern Ocean SST Variability and Its Relationship with ENSO on Inter-Decadal Time Scales

Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the Southern Hemisphere （0°-60°S）. In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest-northeast direction. In the South Pacific Ocean, a meridional tripole structure emerges, whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability. The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer. On the inter-decadal time scales, the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980. No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, despite the reduced amplitude, the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with E1 Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） are enhanced after 1979/1980. The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980. These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southern Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s. The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.

Inter-decadal variations,causes and future projection of the Asian summer monsoon

The present paper presents a concise summary of our recent studies on the Asian summer monsoon,with highting decadal and inter- decadal scales. The studies on the long- term variations of the Asian summer monsoon and its impacts on the change in the summer precipitation in China are reviewed. Moreover,recent changes in the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation in East Asia(including Meiyu precipitation)are discussed. Finally,the future changes of the Asian summer monsoon are also pointed out in this paper.

A decomposition study of moisture transport divergence for inter-decadal change in East Asia summer rainfall during 1958-2001

In this paper, we report on the results of an investigation into inter-decadal changes in moisture transport and divergence in East Asia for the two periods 1980-2001 and 1958 1979. The aim is to explore the mechanism of summer rainfall change in the region after abrupt changes. The relevant changes are calculated using ERA-40 daily reanalysis datasets. The results show that both stationary and transient eddy moisture transports to the Chinese mainland have declined since the abrupt change in atmospheric general circulation in the late 1970s, leading to more rainfall in South China and less in the North. The anomalous rainfall pattern coincides well with anomalous large-scale moisture divergence in the troposphere, of which stationary-wave or monsoon transport is dominant, in comparison with the contribution of the transient eddies. F^rthermore, their divergences are found to be in opposite phases. In addition, meridional divergence is more important than its zonal counterpart, with an opposite phase in East Asia. Abnormal zonal moisture convergences appear in northwestern and northeastern parts of China, and are related to the excess rainfalls in these regions. An increase in transient eddy activity is one of the major mechanisms for excess rainfall in northern Xinjiang. Consequently, the anomalous rainfall pattern in East Asia results from a decline of the East Asian monsoon after the abrupt change, while the rainfall increase in northwestern China involves anomalies of both stationary waves and transient eddies on boreal westerly over the mid- and high latitudes.

Inter-decadal Analysis on the Intensity of Summer Monsoon in Northeast China

In this paper,the intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China was defined objectively by using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and national precipitation data from 1961 to 2004.In the inter-decadal time scales,the correlations between sea-level pressure field,850 hPa flow field,500 hPa geopotential height,sea surface temperature,Arctic sea ice concentration,a variety of oscillation indexes and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China were analyzed.The analysis showed that the great value area of correlations was consistent between sea-level pressure field,500 hPa geopotential height field and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China in pre-winter or summer,and the correlation was much better in summer than in pre-winter.The correlation was poor between the sea surface temperature and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China,but the correlation was good between the Arctic sea ice concentration and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China.The correlation was better between the NPO index and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China than other indexes.

Modeled Influence of East Asian Black Carbon on Inter-Decadal Shifts in East China Summer Rainfall

Two inter-decadal shifts in East China summer rainfall during the last three decades of the 20th century have been identified.One shift occurred in the late 1970s and featured more rainfall in the Yangtze River valley and prolonged drought in North China.The other shift occurred in the early 1990s and featured increased rainfall in South China.The role of black carbon(BC) aerosol in the first shift event is controversial,and it has not been documented for the second event.In this study,the authors used Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's(GFDL's) atmospheric general circulation model known as Atmosphere and Land Model(AM2.1) ,which has been shown to capture East Asian climate variability well,to investigate these issues by conducting sensitive experiments with or without historical BC in East Asia. The results suggest that the model reproduces the first shift well,including intensified rainfall in the Yangtze River and weakened monsoonal circulation.However,the model captures only a fraction of the observed variations for the second shift event.Thus,the role of BC in modulating the two shift events is different,and its impact is relatively less important for the early 1990s event.

Recent strong inter-decadal change of Meiyu in 121-year variations

The strongest change in Meiyu periods in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin （MLY） since 1885 occurred in the late 1970s： a stage of weak Meiyu from 1958 to 1978 abruptly transformed into a stage of plentiful Meiyu from 1979 to 1999. The average Meiyu amount of the latter 21 years increased by 66% compared with that of the former 21 years, accompanied by a significant increase in the occurrence of summer floods in the MLY. This change was closely related with the frequent phenomenon of postponed Meiyu ending dates （MED） and later onset dates of high summer （ODHS） in the MLY. To a considerable degree, this reflects an abrupt change of the summer climate in East China. Further analysis showed that the preceding factors contributing to inter-annual changes in Meiyu in the two 21-year stages delimited above were also very different from each other. The causes of change were associated with the following： China’s industrialization has greatly accelerated since the 1970s, accompanied by an increase in atmospheric pollution and a reduction of the solar radiation reaching the ground. The sand area of North China has also expanded due to overgrazing. The enhanced greenhouse effect is manifested in warm winters （especially in February）. Meanwhile, the January precipitation of the MLY has for the most part increased, and El Ni？o events have occurred more frequently since the late 1970s. A correlative scatter diagram consisting of these five factors mentioned above clearly shows that the two stages with opposite Meiyu characteristics are grouped in two contrasting locations with very different environmental （land-atmosphere） conditions. It is quite possible that we are now entering a new stage of lesser Meiyu, beginning in 2000.

CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ONSET OF SOUTH CHINASEA SUMMERMONSOON II.INTER-DECADAL VARIATION

By using the 40-year NCEP (1958-1997) grid point reanalysis meteorological data, we analyzed the inter-decadal variation on the climatic characteristics of the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. The results are as follows. (1) There was great difference on the onset date of the SCS summer monsoon between the first two decades and the last two decades. It was late on the 6th pentad of May for the first two decades and was on the 4th and 5th pentad of May for the next two decades. (2) Except for the third decade (1978-1987), the establishment of the monsoon rainfall was one to two pentads earlier than the onset of the summer monsoon in all other three decades. (3) The onset of the SCS monsoon is the result of the abrupt development and eastward advancement of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. The four-decade analysis shows that there were abrupt development of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal between the 3rd and 4th pentad of May, but there was great difference between its eastward movement and its onset intensity. These may have important effect to the earlier or later onset of the SCS summer monsoon. (4) During the onset of the SCS summer monsoon, there were great difference in the upper and lower circulation feature between the first two and the next two decades. At the lower troposphere of the first two decades, the Indian-Burma trough was stronger and the center of the subtropical high was located more eastward. At the upper troposphere, the northward movement of the center of subtropical high was large and located more northward after it landed on the Indo-China Peninsula. After comparison, we can see that the circulation feature of the last two decades was favorable to the establishment and development of the SCS summer monsoon.

靶向药物甲磺酸伊马替尼的分子标志物BCR-ABL融合基因定量检测平台的质量评价方法的研究

目的:使用BCR-ABL定量标准品,评价BCR-ABL融合基因检测试剂盒(数字PCR法)的性能。方法:提取BCR-ABL定量标准品的RNA,测定其浓度和纯度。使用BCR-ABL融合基因定量检测试剂盒(数字PCR法)和数字PCR仪进行检测,得到标准品的BCR-ABL融合基因的分子学反应。结果:用于准确度项目检测的标准品WS2和WS3的BCR-ABL融合基因的MR绝对偏差均不超过±0.5 log,用于检出限项目检测的标准品WS4能检出BCR-ABL融合基因突变阳性,用于重复性项目检测的标准品WS1和WS4的BCR-ABL融合基因的MR的变异系数(CV)均<3.0%。结论:BCR-ABL融合基因定量检测试剂盒(数字PCR法)的准确度、检出限和重复性的性能指标符合制定的《断裂点簇集区-艾贝尔逊白血病病毒(BCR-ABL)融合基因检测试剂盒》标准的相应要求,为标准的实施提供了技术支撑。

重大事件下城市土地市场公共政策效应评估——基于35个大中城市的实证研究

文章采用季节调整法和HP滤波法,使用35个城市政府、企业和居民三部门的21期季度收入数据,对理论模型中的重大公共卫生事件的影响进行了测度;采用断点回归方法,实证了重大公共卫生事件下公共政策对土地价格的影响,且通过分区和分层进一步进行稳定性检验和异质性检验。研究结果表明,重大公共卫生事件对三部门的运行在短期内仍造成了较大波动,其中房地产企业部门的短期波动最大,对城市土地市场有明显的破坏效应;公共政策对城市土地市场进行了修正,但修正程度随着冲击程度的加大而减小,对不同地区、不同城市、不同用途土地市场的政策效应也有差异。文章为深化关于重大事件下城市土地市场的公共政策效应评估提供了定量判断,为政府部门针对城市土地市场制定更精准有效的公共政策提供了一定的理论支撑。

共同富裕背景下广东农村产业融合发展水平测度与空间演变分析

农村产业融合发展是实现共同富裕的前提和关键要素,也是推进共同富裕的主要动力。在此背景下,以广东省为例研究农村产业发展程度及演变特征对于新时期农业现代化的实现、制定可持续发展规划均具有重要指导意义。文章通过梳理广东地区农村产业融合发展模式,构建针对性的农村产业融合评价指标体系,利用熵值法对广东省农村产业融合发展水平进行测算。随后,通过ArcGIS自然断点法对广东省各地市农村产业融合发展水平进行分级,利用Dagum基尼系数对广东地区农村产业融合的区域差异及分布动态演进进行实证研究。结果表明,广东省农村产业融合指数逐年上升,农村产业融合程度在不断加深,成效显著;广东各地市农村产业融合指数均有明显增长,但发展不够均衡;广东省农村产业融合水平在空间上具有聚集效应,农村产业融合评价体系的不同维度对不同地区贡献度存在差异;广东地区农村产业融合差异程度逐渐缩小,区域间差异是影响广东地区农村产业融合发展不均衡的主要原因。根据研究结果提出如下建议:一是强化政策指引;二是因地制宜突出地区优势创新农村产业融合模式;三是加强区域内以及区域间的交流与合作。

基于多策略融合的改进RRT路径规划算法

针对传统快速扩展随机树(RRT)及其衍生算法在路径规划时生成路径效率较低、无效探索点较多等问题,提出一种多策略融合的改进RRT算法。首先利用启发式选择策略确定最合适的扩展节点,然后结合基于目标偏置的自适应动态步长策略,使随机树始终向目标点区域扩展,最后通过垂距断点预优化的跳点连线策略去除冗余点,生成一条没有较大转折角的最短安全路径。通过不同复杂程度的仿真实验和现实环境实验对该算法进行测试。结果表明,与RRT、RRT*和Bi-RRT*算法相比,本文算法在时间消耗上分别减少了大约80%、50%和60%,在路径节点数上分别减少了大约65%、40%和35%。机器人依据该算法可以高效生成一条无碰撞,仅包含起始点、目标点和非突兀转折点的最优路径。

正文本、副文本与互动叙述中故事世界的动态扩展——基于断点的维度

在网络空间中,多元叙述主体常因某些社会事件、热点话题等聚集起来进行互动叙述,所生成的正文本往往需要和众多副文本协同共创故事。正文本断点激发读者在副文本中进行填充与缝合,携带着不同叙述意图的叙述主体对断点进行“就事论事型”和“借题发挥型”填充。然而,副文本常常无意或难以缝合正文本断点,甚至生产出更多、更复杂的新断点。新断点与旧断点相互交织,正副文本相互影响,为多元叙述主体在遍历中推断出多义性、歧义性、想象性的故事世界提供蓝图。

一种利用InSAR相干图的干旱地区采空区检测方法

针对采空区快速检测的需要,探讨利用雷达干涉测量(InSAR)技术生成的相干图检测地下采矿活动造成的采空区的可行性。基于InSAR技术,重点分析InSAR相干图在干旱地区的相干性特征及低相干区与煤矿采空区的相关性。在此基础上,构建了一种基于InSAR低相干区的煤矿采空区快速识别方法,利用InSAR相干图和自然断点分级法对大范围内可能发生的采空区进行广域识别与快速检测。以哈密市某煤矿为实验区,利用2020—2023年的28景Sentinel-1雷达数据,检测出InSAR相干图中的低相干区范围,获取了煤矿采空区的位置及范围。通过光学影像辅助验证,该方法对采空区识别的IoU和precision分别达到72.40%和96.40%。该方法为干旱地区的煤矿采空区的广域识别与检测提供了一条新的技术途径。

基于数据服务的医院文件服务系统设计与实现

目的设计一套基于数据服务的文件服务系统,保证数据文件的安全使用和规范管理,解决数据文件集中管理和下载难的问题。方法采用客户端/服务器(C/S)架构,客户端使用Java Swing作为用户操作呈现终端,提供跨平台访问、文件断点下载和断点上传功能;文件服务端提供接入校验、文件断点上传、文件断点下载和文件存储服务。结果系统全面满足文件读写使用的服务要求,在保障数据文件安全的同时,为数据服务提供了良好的支撑。结论基于数据服务的文件服务系统,实现了数据文件的统一服务和管理,为全院数据服务提供了坚实的基础。

主体功能区战略对区域能源消费碳排放的影响——以福建省为例

主体功能区战略是我国区域经济协调发展的重大国家战略之一。研究主体功能区战略对区域能源消费碳排放的影响有助于实现我国经济增长和环境保护的双赢。以福建省为研究对象,采用断点回归模型考察主体功能区战略对能源消费碳排放的影响,并进一步通过时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型揭示不同主体功能类型区内影响因素的差异。研究发现:主体功能区战略的实施有效减缓了福建省能源消费碳排放的增长,且对以保护功能为主地区的碳减排效应优于以开发功能为主地区;在能源消费碳排放影响因素方面,经济发展水平表现为抑制作用,资本资源和产业结构表现为促进作用,而城镇化水平对能源消费碳排放的影响在福建省内存在较强的时空异质性。研究结果可为政府进一步推进不同类型主体功能区构建“双碳”实现路径提供新的思路和决策依据。

大气污染物致突变研究中的Breakpoint回归

本文在用Ames试验和SOS显色法两个细菌短期测试系统研究广州地区1991年的大气总悬浮颗粒（TSP）二氯化烷（DCM）提取物遗传毒性的基础上，建立了气温（T），气压（P），风速（W），降雨量（R），相对湿度（RH）5种主要气象因素与诱变力和诱导力之间的Breakpoint回归模型，回归效果显著。

基于α⁃shape和多边形偏置的断层自动提取方法

断层解释在储层预测和地质建模中至关重要,目前采用人工方式解释断层工作量大、效率低,不能满足油田勘探开发的精细要求。为此,以传统相干属性或断层智能预测数据体分析、优选为基础,提出一种基于α⁃shape和多边形偏置的断层自动提取方法。首先通过人机交互确定目标断层位置;其次研发并利用α⁃shape断点边缘提取算法和倾角约束多边形偏置算法,实现对断层空间边界的精确刻画;最后以该边界为约束条件设置目标断层重合度阈值,约束区域生长算法的延展范围,完成三维断层自动提取。所提方法在胜利油田多个地区应用均取得较好效果,在征6地区刻画断层空间展布形态,断层完整性及精确度明显优于某商业软件;在辛50地区开展断层自动提取,大幅提高了工作效率。

基于分簇的管道网络断点自动发现方法研究

管道断点的存在,使管道使用效率降低,产生网络隐患。而人工发现断点,以及寻找消除的方案是比较费时费力的工作。本文针对以上问题,研究如何自动发现管道网络断点,将改进的动态分簇和分布式分布簇方法、无向图分析方法和Dijkstra最短路径算法,相互结合,实现了对管道断点的自动发现,极大提高了人工效率和维护质量,对运营商的通信管道网络完善具有较强的现实意义。

论电影《1917》“一镜到底”断点处影像意义

2020年上映的反战影片《1917》导演萨姆•门德斯,运用“一镜到底”的技术手段,完成了将近两小时的战争叙事。他用三次黑场过渡的方式在连续不断的画面中形成断点,从而以断点来带动叙事节奏,推动情节发展,并在黑场过渡所形成的间离效果中完成他者意义表达。萨姆•门德斯没有把“一镜到底”的影像意义局限于时间真实性与空间客观性,其在影片的断点处完成了时间凝缩与空间转换,以巧妙的影像表现手法完成了情节意义的表达,实现了技术手段与艺术技巧的高度融合。