In order to explore the influence of interest rate liberalization on profitability,an empirical analysis is carried out with the panel data of commercial banks in China from 2009 to 2019.Then,the heterogeneity of the ...In order to explore the influence of interest rate liberalization on profitability,an empirical analysis is carried out with the panel data of commercial banks in China from 2009 to 2019.Then,the heterogeneity of the impact is studied among different banks.The results show that,first,interest rate liberalization and commercial banks'profitability have an inverted U-shaped relationship,whereby interest rate liberalization would increase the profitability of banks in the early stage but would reduce the profitability after reaching a peak inflection point at the later stage.Secondly,the impact varies among different banks,being more significant in urban commercial banks and large state-owned banks.展开更多
The level of Chinese interest rate liberalization is very low. The interest rate liberalization reform is an inevitable choice under the general trend of economic globalization in the world. Mean while, interest rate ...The level of Chinese interest rate liberalization is very low. The interest rate liberalization reform is an inevitable choice under the general trend of economic globalization in the world. Mean while, interest rate liberalization is indispensable for Chinese economic development and financial stabilization. The interest rate liberalization reform should follow a certain principles and satisfy a certain require ments, otherwise the financial order will be in a state of chaos and the negative influence on economy will appear. The interest rate liberaliza tion reform needs a good economic environment and a series of relative reforms.展开更多
In 2000, the central bank of China adopted a policy to gradually liberalize its interest rate, and thus raised the curtain of competition over interest rate among the banks in China. The objective of this study is to ...In 2000, the central bank of China adopted a policy to gradually liberalize its interest rate, and thus raised the curtain of competition over interest rate among the banks in China. The objective of this study is to put a focus on the existing banking market environment and thereafter the gaming behaviors of the banks on different stages given the interest rate is loosened gradually as scheduled.展开更多
Actually China has achieved the liberation of deposit and lending rates to some extent, after the start of the reform, it is expected there may not be a great impact on the banking sector in the short term, but in the...Actually China has achieved the liberation of deposit and lending rates to some extent, after the start of the reform, it is expected there may not be a great impact on the banking sector in the short term, but in the long term, the interest rate liberation will undoubtedly increase the cost of capital banks, especially after deposit rates achieve the full realization of market-oriented pricing, which will have long term impact on the banking business.展开更多
We examine whether the effectiveness of the monetary policy rate transmission differs before and after interest rate liberalization in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and an error corr...We examine whether the effectiveness of the monetary policy rate transmission differs before and after interest rate liberalization in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and an error correction model (ECM). The results show that after liberalization the mark-up is lower, and both the Iong-run and shortrun interest rate pass-through has become faster and more complete. We attribute our findings to the ongoing reforms of China's banking system, which has improved the competitiveness of Chinese commercial banks.展开更多
China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structura...China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.展开更多
Home mortgage loan lending firms are exposed to many business risks.This paper focuses on the mortgage loan borrower risks and proposes a prospective loss analysis approach in regard to loan repayment defaults of borr...Home mortgage loan lending firms are exposed to many business risks.This paper focuses on the mortgage loan borrower risks and proposes a prospective loss analysis approach in regard to loan repayment defaults of borrowers.For this purpose,a predictive modeling is presented in three stages.In the first stage,occurrence of borrower defaults in a mortgage loans portfolio is modeled through the generalized linear models(GLMs)type regressions for which we specify a logistic distribution for default events.The second stage of modeling develops a survival analysis in order to estimate survival probability and hazard rate functions for individual loans.Ultimately,an expectable loss amount model is presented in the third stage as a function of conditional survival probabilities and corresponding hazard rates at loan levels.Throughout all modeling stages,a large and real data set is used as an empirical analysis case by which detailed interpretations and practical implications of the obtained results are stated.展开更多
Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interes...Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interest rates during 2002-2012. The results indicate that the long-term pass-through from the interbank offered rates and deposit and loan interest rates to the treasury bond rate is incomplete, but that the long-term pass-through to private loan interest rates is overshooting. The long-term pass-through from the deposit and loan interest rates to the overnight interbank offered rate is incomplete, while that to the interbank offered rates of other maturities is complete. The short-term passthrough and adjustment speed of interest rates exhibit asymmetry. Therefore, before considering a full liberalization of interest rates, it is important to further enhance the competition of the financial system and the function of different interest rate systems, such as the interhank market and bond market.展开更多
In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberal...In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People 's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China's gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country 's GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two-sided. The renminb i real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.展开更多
Following a sticky particle model and its computer simulation scheme proposed in the previous papers, the motions of particles in both 2-and 3-dimensional shear flow fields are simulated. At a steady state of clusteri...Following a sticky particle model and its computer simulation scheme proposed in the previous papers, the motions of particles in both 2-and 3-dimensional shear flow fields are simulated. At a steady state of clustering process, the radial distribution functions are calculated to precisely describe the microstructure of aggregates in dispersions, and the configuration of particles is displayed,which gives a direct view of microstructure. It is found that (1) the kind of the microstructure transforms from compact clusters to a loose network as the concentration of particles increases; (2) the microstructure is independent of shear rate which only dominates the size of clusters formed at steady state.展开更多
Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying ...Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying drivers of trade liberalization.Parametric calibration and simulation methods based on the numeric general equilibrium model are employed to estimate the optimal tariff rates of countries with and without trade retaliation.Then,near-reality assumptions are added into the standard general equilibrium model structure,including the cross-border capital flow,multi-country assumption and trade cost,to simulate decreasing optimal tariff rates.The simulation results suggest that world economic development has increased the economic ties and interdependence among nations,making trade liberalization an endogenous optimal choice.The backlash against globalization in recent years is motivated by short-term factors,but will not persist in the long run since it goes against the law of economic growth and socio-economic development.展开更多
The characteristic of coal spontaneous combustion includes oxidative property and exothermic capacity. It can really simulate the process of coal spontaneous combustion to use the large scale experimental unit loading...The characteristic of coal spontaneous combustion includes oxidative property and exothermic capacity. It can really simulate the process of coal spontaneous combustion to use the large scale experimental unit loading coal 1 000 kg. According to the field change of gas concentration and coal temperature determined through experiment of coal self ignite at low temperature stage, and on the basis of hydromechanics and heat transfer theory, some parameters can be calculated at different low temperature stage, such as, oxygen consumption rate, heat liberation intensity. It offers a theoretic criterion for quantitatively analyzing characteristic of coal self ignite and forecasting coal spontaneous combustion. According to coal exothermic capability and its thermal storage surroundings, thermal equilibrium is applied to deduce the computational method of limit parameter of coal self ignite. It offers a quantitative theoretic criterion for coal self ignite forecasting and preventing. According to the measurement and test of spontaneous combustion of Haibei coal, some token parameter of Haibei coal spontaneous combustion is quantitatively analyzed, such as, spontaneous combustion period of coal, critical temperature, oxygen consumption rate, heat liberation intensity, and limit parameter of coal self ignite.展开更多
基金The study was supported by The Research Start-up Funds ofNorth China University of Technology(Project Number:110051360002).
文摘In order to explore the influence of interest rate liberalization on profitability,an empirical analysis is carried out with the panel data of commercial banks in China from 2009 to 2019.Then,the heterogeneity of the impact is studied among different banks.The results show that,first,interest rate liberalization and commercial banks'profitability have an inverted U-shaped relationship,whereby interest rate liberalization would increase the profitability of banks in the early stage but would reduce the profitability after reaching a peak inflection point at the later stage.Secondly,the impact varies among different banks,being more significant in urban commercial banks and large state-owned banks.
文摘The level of Chinese interest rate liberalization is very low. The interest rate liberalization reform is an inevitable choice under the general trend of economic globalization in the world. Mean while, interest rate liberalization is indispensable for Chinese economic development and financial stabilization. The interest rate liberalization reform should follow a certain principles and satisfy a certain require ments, otherwise the financial order will be in a state of chaos and the negative influence on economy will appear. The interest rate liberaliza tion reform needs a good economic environment and a series of relative reforms.
文摘In 2000, the central bank of China adopted a policy to gradually liberalize its interest rate, and thus raised the curtain of competition over interest rate among the banks in China. The objective of this study is to put a focus on the existing banking market environment and thereafter the gaming behaviors of the banks on different stages given the interest rate is loosened gradually as scheduled.
文摘Actually China has achieved the liberation of deposit and lending rates to some extent, after the start of the reform, it is expected there may not be a great impact on the banking sector in the short term, but in the long term, the interest rate liberation will undoubtedly increase the cost of capital banks, especially after deposit rates achieve the full realization of market-oriented pricing, which will have long term impact on the banking business.
文摘We examine whether the effectiveness of the monetary policy rate transmission differs before and after interest rate liberalization in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and an error correction model (ECM). The results show that after liberalization the mark-up is lower, and both the Iong-run and shortrun interest rate pass-through has become faster and more complete. We attribute our findings to the ongoing reforms of China's banking system, which has improved the competitiveness of Chinese commercial banks.
文摘China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.
文摘Home mortgage loan lending firms are exposed to many business risks.This paper focuses on the mortgage loan borrower risks and proposes a prospective loss analysis approach in regard to loan repayment defaults of borrowers.For this purpose,a predictive modeling is presented in three stages.In the first stage,occurrence of borrower defaults in a mortgage loans portfolio is modeled through the generalized linear models(GLMs)type regressions for which we specify a logistic distribution for default events.The second stage of modeling develops a survival analysis in order to estimate survival probability and hazard rate functions for individual loans.Ultimately,an expectable loss amount model is presented in the third stage as a function of conditional survival probabilities and corresponding hazard rates at loan levels.Throughout all modeling stages,a large and real data set is used as an empirical analysis case by which detailed interpretations and practical implications of the obtained results are stated.
基金support from the National Social ScienceFund of China(Grant Nos.10zd&034 and 12CJY115)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71373011)Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. LY12G03027)
文摘Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interest rates during 2002-2012. The results indicate that the long-term pass-through from the interbank offered rates and deposit and loan interest rates to the treasury bond rate is incomplete, but that the long-term pass-through to private loan interest rates is overshooting. The long-term pass-through from the deposit and loan interest rates to the overnight interbank offered rate is incomplete, while that to the interbank offered rates of other maturities is complete. The short-term passthrough and adjustment speed of interest rates exhibit asymmetry. Therefore, before considering a full liberalization of interest rates, it is important to further enhance the competition of the financial system and the function of different interest rate systems, such as the interhank market and bond market.
文摘In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People 's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China's gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country 's GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two-sided. The renminb i real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.
文摘Following a sticky particle model and its computer simulation scheme proposed in the previous papers, the motions of particles in both 2-and 3-dimensional shear flow fields are simulated. At a steady state of clustering process, the radial distribution functions are calculated to precisely describe the microstructure of aggregates in dispersions, and the configuration of particles is displayed,which gives a direct view of microstructure. It is found that (1) the kind of the microstructure transforms from compact clusters to a loose network as the concentration of particles increases; (2) the microstructure is independent of shear rate which only dominates the size of clusters formed at steady state.
基金the sponsorship of the Post-funded Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research of the Chinese Ministry of Education (19JHQ062)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) General Program (71572048) for this paper
文摘Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of factors.This paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying drivers of trade liberalization.Parametric calibration and simulation methods based on the numeric general equilibrium model are employed to estimate the optimal tariff rates of countries with and without trade retaliation.Then,near-reality assumptions are added into the standard general equilibrium model structure,including the cross-border capital flow,multi-country assumption and trade cost,to simulate decreasing optimal tariff rates.The simulation results suggest that world economic development has increased the economic ties and interdependence among nations,making trade liberalization an endogenous optimal choice.The backlash against globalization in recent years is motivated by short-term factors,but will not persist in the long run since it goes against the law of economic growth and socio-economic development.
基金ThearticlesupportedfinanciallybyNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina (No .5 99740 2 0 )andSpecialFoundationofShaanxiEdu cationCommittee (No .99Jk2 2 0 )
文摘The characteristic of coal spontaneous combustion includes oxidative property and exothermic capacity. It can really simulate the process of coal spontaneous combustion to use the large scale experimental unit loading coal 1 000 kg. According to the field change of gas concentration and coal temperature determined through experiment of coal self ignite at low temperature stage, and on the basis of hydromechanics and heat transfer theory, some parameters can be calculated at different low temperature stage, such as, oxygen consumption rate, heat liberation intensity. It offers a theoretic criterion for quantitatively analyzing characteristic of coal self ignite and forecasting coal spontaneous combustion. According to coal exothermic capability and its thermal storage surroundings, thermal equilibrium is applied to deduce the computational method of limit parameter of coal self ignite. It offers a quantitative theoretic criterion for coal self ignite forecasting and preventing. According to the measurement and test of spontaneous combustion of Haibei coal, some token parameter of Haibei coal spontaneous combustion is quantitatively analyzed, such as, spontaneous combustion period of coal, critical temperature, oxygen consumption rate, heat liberation intensity, and limit parameter of coal self ignite.