Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

Arctic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation in Internal Atmospheric Variability with an Ensemble AGCM Simulation

In this study, we investigated the features of Arctic Oscillation （AO） and Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）, that is, the annular modes in the extratropics, in the internal atmospheric variability attained through an ensemble of integrations by an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） forced with the global observed SSTs. We focused on the interannual variability of AO/AAO, which is dominated by internal atmospheric variability. In comparison with previous observed results, the AO/AAO in internal atmospheric variability bear some similar characteristics, but exhibit a much clearer spatial structure： significant correlation between the North Pacific and North Atlantic centers of action, much stronger and more significant associated precipitation anomalies, and the meridional displacement of upper-tropospheric westerly jet streams in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere. In addition, we examined the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）/AO and East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）. It has been shown that in the internal atmospheric variability, the EAWM variation is significantly related to the NAO through upper-tropospheric atmospheric teleconnection patterns.

Modeling of microstructure evolution of AZ80 magnesium alloy during hot working process using a unified internal state variable method

In this paper, a unified internal state variable(ISV) model for predicting microstructure evolution during hot working process of AZ80 magnesium alloy was developed. A novel aspect of the proposed model is that the interactive effects of material hardening, recovery and dynamic recrystallization(DRX) on the characteristic deformation behavior were considered by incorporating the evolution laws of viscoplastic flow, dislocation activities, DRX nucleation and boundary migration in a coupled manner. The model parameters were calibrated based on the experimental data analysis and genetic algorithm(GA) based objective optimization. The predicted flow stress, DRX fraction and average grain size match well with experimental results. The proposed model was embedded in the finite element(FE) software DEFORM-3 D via user defined subroutine to simulate the hot compression and equal channel angular extrusion(ECAE) processes. The heterogeneous microstructure distributions at different deformation zones and the dislocation density evolution with competitive deformation mechanisms were captured.This study can provide a theoretical solution for the hot working problems of magnesium alloy.

3D finite element simulation of microstructure evolution in blade forging of Ti-6Al-4V alloy based on the internal state variable models

The physically-based internal state variable （ISV） models were used to describe the changes of dislocation density, grain size, and flow stress in the high temperature deformation of titanium alloys in this study. The constants of the present models could be identified based on experimental results, which were conducted at deformation temperatures ranging from 1093 K to 1303 K, height reductions ranging from 20% to 60%, and the strain rates of 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1.0, and 10.0 s-1. The physically-based internal state variable models were implemented into the commercial finite element （FE） code. Then, a three-dimensional （3D） FE simulation system coupling of deformation, heat transfer, and microstructure evolution was developed for the blade forging of Ti-6Al-4V alloy. FE analysis was carried out to simulate the microstructure evolution in the blade forging of Ti-6Al-4V alloy. Finally, the blade forging tests of Ti-6Al-4V alloy were performed to validate the results of FE simulation. According to the tensile tests, it is seen that the mechanical properties, such as tensile strength and elongation, satisfy the application requirements well. The maximum and minimum differences between the calculated and experimental grain size of primary α phase are 11.71% and 4.23%, respectively. Thus, the industrial trials show a good agreement with FE simulation of blade forging.

Projected Climate Change against Natural Internal Variability over China

The ability of 42 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation over China is first examined by using their historical experiments for 1986–2005, and then 39 relatively reliable models are chosen to project temperature and precipitation changes against the natural internal variability over the country under the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) scenarios in the 21 st century. The result shows the temperature continuing to increase, especially in northern China. The annual warming for 2081–2099 relative to 1986–2005 over the whole of the country is larger than the background variability, with the multimodel median changes under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 being 9.9, 19.3, 22.8, and 35.9 times greater than one standard deviation of internal variability, respectively. The annual precipitation is projected to increase by 6.1%, 9.3%, 9.6%, and 16.2% for 2081–2099 relative to 1986–2005 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 respectively, while large changes with high model agreement only occur over the northern Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, which is mainly due to the robust changes in winter and spring under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.

GENERAL CONSTITUTIVE EQUATIONS OF AN ER SUSPENSION BASED ON THE INTERNAL VARIABLE THEORY

A microstructural constitutive theory of ER suspensions was formulated in this investigation. The framework was based on the internal variable theory and the mechanism analysis. The ER suspension consists of fine particles with high dielectric constant and the supporting fluid. Under the action of the electric field, the polarized particles will aggregate together to form the chain-like structures along the direction of the electric field. As the size and orientation of the particle aggregates are volatile, and they adjust according to the applied electric field and strain rate, the energy conservation equation and the force equilibrium equation were thus established to determine the orientation and size of the aggregates. Following that, a three-dimensional, explicit form of the constitutive equation was derived based on the interaction energy and the dissipation function of the system. The response of the system under the action of a simple shearing load was considered and discussed in detail. It is found that the shear-thinning viscosity of an ER suspension is wed approximated by the power-law proportional to (Mn)(-D.82).

Impacts of internal climate variability on meteorological drought changes in China

Drought is one of the extreme events that can be caused by internal climate variability （ICV） and external forcing （EF）. Here, the authors investigate the relative contributions of ICY and EF to meteorological drought changes in China using 40 members from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble （CESE_LE） project for historical simulations （in response to greenhouse gases and other EF） and future simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario. The authors use the Standardized Precipitation Index （SPI） to represent meteorological drought, and then define and analyze four drought parameters （frequency, severity, duration, and maximum duration） over eight regions of China. For historical periods, the ICV plays a dominant role in drought variation, while with global warming under the RCP8.5 scenario the EF becomes the prominent factor for drought characteristics. With the global warming signal, the effect of ICV varies with the drought parameters. This study suggests that the ICV should be taken into account when climate model simulations are used to investigate drought--in particular, for historical periods.

Influence of the Boundary Forcing on the Internal Variability of a Regional Climate Model

The internal variability of a ten-member ensemble of the regional climate model REMO over Europe is investigated. It is shown that the annual cycle of internal variability behaves differently compared to earlier studies that focused on other regions. To gain better insight into the dependence of the internal variability on the boundary forcing variability, a circulation type classification is performed on the forcing data. It can be shown that especially in the winter season internal variability is dependent on the circulation type included in the boundary forcing, whereas in the summer season the level and pattern of internal variability is rather independent from the circulation type of the driving field. It is concluded that for Europe the internal variability of REMO in winter is governed by circulation patterns related to the North-Atlantic Oscillation, whereas in summer local processes play a bigger role.

A Comprehensive Review of Experience with the Application of the Mechanical Threshold Stress Model

Accurate prediction of stress-strain behavior of metals as a function of arbitrary temperature and strain rate paths has remained a challenge. The Mechanical Threshold Stress constitutive model is one formalism that has emerged following several decades of research. Vast experience has accumulated with the application of the Mechanical Threshold Stress model over a wide variety of pure metals and alloys. Out of this has arisen common trends across metal systems. The magnitude of activation energies presents one example of this, where these variables consistently increase in magnitude as the obstacle to dislocation motion transitions from short range to long range. Trends in strain hardening are also observed. In Face-Centered Cubic metals the magnitude of strain hardening scales with the stacking fault energy;trends in Body-Centered Cubic metals are less clear. Model parameters derived for over twenty metals and alloys are tabulated. Common trends should guide future application of the MTS model and further model development.

A MICROMECHANICS CONSTITUTIVE MODEL FOR PURE DILATANT MARTENSITIC TRANSFORMATION OF ZrO2 CONTAINING CERAMICS

A new micromechanics constitutive model for pure dilatant transformation plasticity of structure ceramics is proposed in this paper.Based on the thermodynamics,micromechanics and microscale t→ m trans- formation mechanism analysis of the TZP and PSZ ZrO2-containing ceramics,an analytic expressions of the Helmholtz and complementary free energy of the constitutive element for the case of pure dilatant transforma- tion is derived for the first time in a self-consistent manner.By the analysis of energy dissipation in the for- ward and reverse transformations,the mieromechanics constitutive law is derived in the framework of Hill-Rice’s internal variable constitutive theory.

A MICROMECHANICS CONSTITUTIVE THEORY FOR FORWARD TRANSFORMATION PLASTICITY WITH SHEAR AND DILATATION EFFECT:I,NONPROPORTIONAL LOADING HISTORY

A micromechanics constitutive theory which takes into account both the dilatation and shear ef- fects of the transformation is proposed to describe the macroscopic plastic behavior of structure ceramics during forward transformation under different temperatures.Under some basic assumptions,the analytic expressions of the Helmholtz and complementary free energy of the constitutive element are derived in a self-consistent manner by using the Mori-Tanaka's method which takes into account the interaction between the transformed inclusions.In the framework of Hill-Rice's internal variable constitutive theory,the forward transformation yield function and incremental stress strain relations,in analogy to the theory of metal plasticity,for non-proportional loading histories are obtained.

Prediction of Photosynthetic Carbon Assimilation Rate of Individual Rice Leaves under Changes in Light Environment Using BLSTM-Augmented LSTM

A model to predict photosynthetic carbon assimilation rate(A)with high accuracy is important for forecasting crop yield and productivity.Long short-term memory(LSTM),a neural network suitable for time-series data,enables prediction with high accuracy but requires mesophyll variables.In addition,for practical use,it is desirable to have a technique that can predict A from easily available information.In this study,we propose a BLSTM augmented LSTM(BALSTM)model,which utilizes bi-directional LSTM(BLSTM)to indirectly reproduce the mesophyll variables required for LSTM.The most significant feature of the proposed model is that its hybrid architecture uses only three relatively easy-to-collect external environmental variables—photosynthetic photon flux density(Q_(in)),ambient CO_(2) concentration(C_(a)),and temperature(T_(air))—to generate mesophyll CO_(2) concentration(C_(i))and stomatal conductance to water vapor(g_(sw))as intermediate outputs.Then,A is predicted by applying the obtained intermediate outputs to the learning model.Accordingly,in this study,1)BALSTM(Q_(in),C_(a),T_(air))had a significantly higher A prediction accuracy than LSTM(Q_(in),C_(a),T_(air))in case of using only Q_(in),C_(a),and T_(air);2)BALSTMC_(i),g_(sw),which had C_(i) and g_(sw) as intermediate products,had the highest A prediction accuracy compared with other candidates;and 3)for samples where LSTM(Q_(in),C_(a),T_(air))had poor prediction accuracy,BALSTMC_(i),g_(sw)(Q_(in),C_(a),T_(air))clearly improved the results.However,it was found that incorrect predictions may be formed when certain factors are not reflected in the data(e.g.,timing,cultivar,and growth stage)or when the training data distribution that accounts for these factors differs from the predicted data distribution.Therefore,a robust model should be constructed in the future to improve the prediction accuracy of A by conducting gasexchange measurements(including a wide range of external environmental values)and by increasing the number of training data samples.

2021:A Year of Unprecedented Climate Extremes in Eastern Asia,North America,and Europe

The year 2021 was recorded as the 6th warmest since 1880.In addition to large-scale warming,2021 will be remembered for its unprecedented climate extremes.Here,a review of selected high-impact climate extremes in 2021,with a focus on China,along with an extension to extreme events in North America and Europe is presented.Nine extreme events that occurred in 2021 in China are highlighted,including a rapid transition from cold to warm extremes and sandstorms in spring,consecutive drought in South China and severe thunderstorms in eastern China in the first half of the year,extremely heavy rainfall over Henan Province and Hubei Province during summer,as well as heatwaves,persistent heavy rainfall,and a cold surge during fall.Potential links of extremes in China to four global-scale climate extremes and the underlying physical mechanisms are discussed here,providing insights to understand climate extremes from a global perspective.This serves as a reference for climate event attribution,process understanding,and high-resolution modeling of extreme events.

Causes and Predictability of the 2021 Spring Southwestern China Severe Drought

In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since 1961.This drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Niña event with negative geopotential height anomalies over the Philippine Sea,which is distinct from the historical perspective.Historically,spring drought over SWC is often linked to El Niño and strong western North Pacific subtropical high.Here,we show that the extreme drought in the spring of 2021 may be mainly driven by the atmospheric internal variability and amplified by the warming trend.Specifically,the evaporation increase due to the high temperature accounts for about 30%of drought severity,with the contributions of its linear trend portion being nearly 20%and the interannual variability portion being about 10%.Since the sea surface temperature forcing from the tropical central and eastern Pacific played a minor role in the occurrence of drought,it is a challenge for a climate model to capture the 2021 SWC drought beyond one-month lead times.

Simulation by CMIP5 Models of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Its Climate Impacts

This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） as a mode of internal vari- ability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the ＂Pre-industrial＂ experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models＇ ＂Historical＂ simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their ＂Pre-industrial＂ simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.

The Super-large Ensemble Experiments of CAS FGOALS-g3

A super-large ensemble simulation dataset with 110 members has been produced by the fully coupled model FGOALS-g3 developed by researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.This is the first dataset of large ensemble simulations with a climate system model developed by a Chinese modeling center.The simulation has the largest realizations up to now worldwide in terms of single-model initial-condition large ensembles.Each member includes a historical experiment(1850-2014)and an experiment(2015-99)under the very high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario(SSP5-8.5).The dataset includes monthly and daily temperature,precipitation,and other variables,requiring storage of 275 TB.Additionally,the surface air temperature(SAT)and land precipitation simulated by the FGOALS-g3 super-large ensemble have been validated and projected.The ensemble can capture the response of SAT and land precipitation to external forcings well,and the internal variabilities can be quantified.The availability of more than 100 realizations will help researchers to study rare events and improve the understanding of the impact of internal variability on forced climate changes.

Improvement on the Modeling of Rate-Dependent Plasticity and Cyclic Hardening by Bodner-Partom Model

An additional isotropic internal variable is utilized to extend the Bodner-Partom unified viscoplastic constitutive model （original B-P） to improve the modeling of rate-dependent plasticity and cyclic hardening behaviors of metals. The extended model （new B-P） contains two isotropic internal variables： one plays the role of representing the fast hardening in smaller inelastic strain range, while the other evolutes at slower speed accompanied by larger accumulated inelastic deformation, such as cyclic hardening. To examine the validity of the extended constitutive model, the rate-dependent plasticity of a Ni-base superalloy Udimet 720Li at 650℃ and 700℃ are characterized using both models. Not only numerical simulations are conducted for various loading conditions by implementing both models into ABAOUS using a user material subroutine, also a systematic comparison between two models is completed. Numerical results show that the extended material constants in the new model provide more flexible capability in modeling the inelastic behavior of the material with sound accuracy.

A New Method for Predicting the Decadal Component of Global SST

A simple approach that considers both internal decadal variability and the effect of anthropogenic forcing is developed to predict the decadal components of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the three decades 2011-2040. The internal decadal component is derived by harmonic wave expansion analyses based on the quasiperiodic evolution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as obtained from observational SST datasets. Furthermore, the external decadal component induced by anthropogenic forcing is assessed with a second-order fit based on the ensemble of projected SSTs in the experiments with multiple coupled climate models associated with the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) under the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B. A validation for the years from 2002 to 2010 based on a comparison of the predicted and the observed SST and their spatial correlation, as well as the root mean square error (RMSE), suggests that the approach is reasonable overall. In addition, the predicted results over the 50°S-50°N global band, the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific Ocean, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and the North and the South Atlantic Ocean are presented.

Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline

Arctic sea ice extent has been declining in recent decades. There is ongoing debate on the contribution of natural internal variability to recent and future Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we contrast the trends in the forced and unforced simulations of carefully selected global climate models with the extended observed Arctic sea ice records. The results suggest that the natural variability explains no more than 42.3% of the observed September sea ice extent trend during 35 a（1979–2013） satellite observations, which is comparable to the results of the observed sea ice record extended back to 1953（61 a, less than 48.5% natural variability）. This reinforces the evidence that anthropogenic forcing plays a substantial role in the observed decline of September Arctic sea ice in recent decades. The magnitude of both positive and negative trends induced by the natural variability in the unforced simulations is slightly enlarged in the context of increasing greenhouse gases in the 21st century.However, the ratio between the realizations of positive and negative trends change has remained steady, which enforces the standpoint that external forcing will remain the principal determiner of the decreasing Arctic sea ice extent trend in the future.

Modeling of microstructural evolution and flow behavior of superalloy IN718 using physically based internal state variables

Microstructural evolution and flow behavior greatly affect the hot forming process of IN718.In this research,hot deformation behaviors of IN718 were investigated by performing hot compression tests at temperature range of 1000-1100℃with strain rates of 0.1-20.0 s^(-1).By incorporating physically based internal state variables such as dislocation density,volume fraction of dynamic recrystallization,and grain size,a set of unified viscoplastic constitutive equations were developed to predict the microstructural evolution and flow behavior of IN718.The material constants were determined using a genetic algorithm(G A)-based optimization method.Comparisons of the computed and experimental results indicate that the constitutive equations established in this study can accurately describe the hot deformation behavior and microstructural evolution of IN718.