THE APPLICATION OF COBB-DOUGLAS FUNCTION IN FORECASTING THE DURATION OF INTERNET PUBLIC OPINIONS CAUSED BY THE FAILURE OF PUBLIC POLICIES

Gushes of Internet public opinions may trigger unexpected incidents that significantly affectsocial security and stability, especially for ones caused by the failure of public policies. Therefore,forecasting this kind of Interact public opinions is of great significance. The duration could be citedas one of the most direct indicators that can reflect the severity of a specific Internet public opinioncase. Based on this background, this paper aims to find the factors that may affect the duration of Internet public opinions, and accordingly proposes a model that can accurately predict the durationbefore the release of public policies. Specifically, an index system including 8 factors by consideringfour dimensions, namely, object, environment, reality （offline）, and the network （online）, isestablished. In addition, based on the dataset containing 23 typical Internet public opinion casescaused by the failure of public policies, 9 prediction models are gained by applying the multivariatelinear regression model, multivariate nonlinear regression model, and the Cobb-Douglas function.

Evolution and spatiotemporal analysis of earthquake public opinion based on social media data

As critical conduits for the dissemination of online public opinion,social media platforms offer a timely and effective means for managing emergencies during major disasters,such as earthquakes.This study focuses on the analysis of online public opinions following the Maduo M7.4 earthquake in Qinghai Province and the Yangbi M6.4 earthquake in Yunnan Province.By collecting,cleaning,and organizing post-earthquake Sina Weibo(short for Weibo)data,we employed the Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA)model to extract information pertinent to public opinion on these earthquakes.This analysis included a comparison of the nature and temporal evolution of online public opinions related to both events.An emotion analysis,utilizing an emotion dictionary,categorized the emotional content of post-earthquake Weibo posts,facilitating a comparative study of the characteristics and temporal trends of online public emotions following the earthquakes.The findings were visualized using Geographic Information System(GIS)techniques.The analysis revealed certain commonalities in online public opinion following both earthquakes.Notably,the peak of online engagement occurred within the first 24 hours post-earthquake,with a rapid decline observed between 24 to 48 hours thereafter.The variation in popularity of online public opinion was linked to aftershock occurrences.Adjusted for population factors,online engagement in areas surrounding the earthquake sites and in Sichuan Province was significantly high.Initially dominated by feelings of“fear”and“surprise”,the public sentiment shifted towards a more positive outlook with the onset of rescue operations.However,distinctions in the online public response to each earthquake were also noted.Following the Yangbi earthquake,Yunnan Province reported the highest number of Weibo posts nationwide;in contrast,Qinghai Province ranked third post-Maduo earthquake,attributable to its smaller population size and extensive damage to communication infrastructure.This research offers a methodological approach for the analysis of online public opinion related to earthquakes,providing insights for the enhancement of post-disaster emergency management and public mental health support.

Approach to extracting hot topics based on network traffic content

This article presents the formal definition and description of popular topics on the Internet,analyzes the relationship between popular words and topics,and finally introduces a method that uses statistics and correlation of the popular words in traffic content and network flow characteristics as input for extracting popular topics on the Internet.Based on this,this article adapts a clustering algorithm to extract popular topics and gives formalized results.The test results show that this method has an accuracy of 16.7%in extracting popular topics on the Internet.Compared with web mining and topic detection and tracking(TDT),it can provide a more suitable data source for effective recovery of Internet public opinions.