Even though vaccines against rabies are available,rabies still remains a burden killing a significant number of humans as well as domestic and wild animals in many parts of the world,including Nepal.In this study,we d...Even though vaccines against rabies are available,rabies still remains a burden killing a significant number of humans as well as domestic and wild animals in many parts of the world,including Nepal.In this study,we develop a mathematical model to describe transmission dynamics of rabies in Nepal.In particular,an indirect interspecies transmission from jackals to humans through dogs,which is relevant to the context of Nepal,is one of the novel features of our model.Our model utilizes annual dog-bite data collected from Nepal for a decade long period,allowing us to reasonably estimate parameters related to rabies transmission in Nepal.Using our model,we calculated the basic reproduction number(R_(0)=1:16)as well as intraspecies basic reproduction numbers of dogs(R_(0)^(D)=1:14)and jackals(R_(0)^(J)=0:07)for Nepal,and identified that the dog-related parameters are primary contributors to R0.Our results show that,along with dogs,jackals may also play an important role,albeit lesser extent,in the persistence of rabies in Nepal.Our model also suggests that control strategies may help reduce the prevalence significantly but the jackal vaccination may not be as effective as dog-related preventive strategies.To get deeper insight into the role of intraspecies and interspecies transmission between dog and jackal populations in the persistence of rabies,we also extended our model analysis into a wider parameter range.Interestingly,for some feasible parameters,even though rabies is theoretically controlled in each dog and jackal populations(R_(0)^(D)<1,R_(0)^(J)<1)if isolated,the rabies epidemic may still occur(R_(0)>1)due to interspecies transmission.These results may be useful to design effective prevention and control strategies for mitigating rabies burden in Nepal and other parts of the world.展开更多
Since its first discovery,the Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS‐CoV‐2)has evoked another wave of infection and caused global concern and panic.Moreover,although the data are sti...Since its first discovery,the Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS‐CoV‐2)has evoked another wave of infection and caused global concern and panic.Moreover,although the data are still limited,Omicron showed highly concerning characteristics,including higher transmissibility,extensive immune escape and potentially altered host range.We interpreted these characteristics based on currently available data and outlined some urgent questions,calling for a more comprehensive investigation.展开更多
基金The work of NKV was partially supported by NSF grants DMS-1951793,DMS-1616299,DMS-1836647,and DEB-2030479 from the National Science Foundation of USA,and the UGP award and the start-up fund from San Diego State University.
文摘Even though vaccines against rabies are available,rabies still remains a burden killing a significant number of humans as well as domestic and wild animals in many parts of the world,including Nepal.In this study,we develop a mathematical model to describe transmission dynamics of rabies in Nepal.In particular,an indirect interspecies transmission from jackals to humans through dogs,which is relevant to the context of Nepal,is one of the novel features of our model.Our model utilizes annual dog-bite data collected from Nepal for a decade long period,allowing us to reasonably estimate parameters related to rabies transmission in Nepal.Using our model,we calculated the basic reproduction number(R_(0)=1:16)as well as intraspecies basic reproduction numbers of dogs(R_(0)^(D)=1:14)and jackals(R_(0)^(J)=0:07)for Nepal,and identified that the dog-related parameters are primary contributors to R0.Our results show that,along with dogs,jackals may also play an important role,albeit lesser extent,in the persistence of rabies in Nepal.Our model also suggests that control strategies may help reduce the prevalence significantly but the jackal vaccination may not be as effective as dog-related preventive strategies.To get deeper insight into the role of intraspecies and interspecies transmission between dog and jackal populations in the persistence of rabies,we also extended our model analysis into a wider parameter range.Interestingly,for some feasible parameters,even though rabies is theoretically controlled in each dog and jackal populations(R_(0)^(D)<1,R_(0)^(J)<1)if isolated,the rabies epidemic may still occur(R_(0)>1)due to interspecies transmission.These results may be useful to design effective prevention and control strategies for mitigating rabies burden in Nepal and other parts of the world.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFC0863300).
文摘Since its first discovery,the Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS‐CoV‐2)has evoked another wave of infection and caused global concern and panic.Moreover,although the data are still limited,Omicron showed highly concerning characteristics,including higher transmissibility,extensive immune escape and potentially altered host range.We interpreted these characteristics based on currently available data and outlined some urgent questions,calling for a more comprehensive investigation.
