Uncertain Multidisciplinary Design Optimization on Next Generation Subsea Production System by Using Surrogate Model and Interval Method

The innovative Next Generation Subsea Production System(NextGen SPS)concept is a newly proposed petroleum development solution in ultra-deep water areas.The definition of NextGen SPS involves several disciplines,which makes the design process difficult.In this paper,the definition of NextGen SPS is modeled as an uncertain multidisciplinary design optimization(MDO)problem.The deterministic optimization model is formulated,and three concerning disciplines—cost calculation,hydrodynamic analysis and global performance analysis are presented.Surrogate model technique is applied in the latter two disciplines.Collaborative optimization(CO)architecture is utilized to organize the concerning disciplines.A deterministic CO framework with two disciplinelevel optimizations is proposed firstly.Then the uncertainties of design parameters and surrogate models are incorporated by using interval method,and uncertain CO frameworks with triple loop and double loop optimization structure are established respectively.The optimization results illustrate that,although the deterministic MDO result achieves higher reduction in objective function than the uncertain MDO result,the latter is more reliable than the former.

Energy density response prediction of structures with uncertainty using interval analysis method

Prediction of vibration energy responses of structures with uncertainties is of interest in many fields. The energy density control equation for one-dimensional structure is provided firstly. Interval analysis method is applied to the control equation to obtain the range of energy density responses of structures with interval parameters. A cantilever beam with interval-valued damping coefficient is exemplified to carry out a simulation. The result shows that the mean value of energy density from the interval analysis method is the same as that from a probabilistic method which validates the interval analysis method. Besides, the response range from the interval analysis method is wider and includes that from the probabilistic method which indicates the interval analysis method is a more conservative method and is safer in realistic engineering structures.

Flexural wave bandgap properties of phononic crystal beams with interval parameters

Uncertainties are unavoidable in practical engineering,and phononic crystals are no exception.In this paper,the uncertainties are treated as the interval parameters,and an interval phononic crystal beam model is established.A perturbation-based interval finite element method(P-IFEM)and an affine-based interval finite element method(A-IFEM)are proposed to study the dynamic response of this interval phononic crystal beam,based on which an interval vibration transmission analysis can be easily implemented and the safe bandgap can be defined.Finally,two numerical examples are investigated to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the P-IFEM and A-IFEM.Results show that the safe bandgap range may even decrease by 10%compared with the deterministic bandgap without considering the uncertainties.

FUZZY ARITHMETIC AND SOLVING OF THE STATIC GOVERNING EQUATIONS OF FUZZY FINITE ELEMENT METHOD

The key component of finite element analysis of structures with fuzzy parameters,which is associated with handling of some fuzzy information and arithmetic relation of fuzzy variables, was the solving of the governing equations of fuzzy finite element method. Based on a given interval representation of fuzzy numbers, some arithmetic rules of fuzzy numbers and fuzzy variables were developed in terms of the properties of interval arithmetic.According to the rules and by the theory of interval finite element method, procedures for solving the static governing equations of fuzzy finite element method of structures were presented. By the proposed procedure, the possibility distributions of responses of fuzzy structures can be generated in terms of the membership functions of the input fuzzy numbers.It is shown by a numerical example that the computational burden of the presented procedures is low and easy to implement. The effectiveness and usefulness of the presented procedures are also illustrated.

“粒度分析法”在小流域泥沙来源研究中的应用

小流域泥沙来源是土壤侵蚀研究的重点内容 ,目前 ,国内外主要利用径流泥沙资料 ,采用统计分析方法来确定小流域不同地貌部位及不同侵蚀类型的产沙量。研究采用“粒度分折法”,对砒砂岩不同侵蚀类型区典型小流域泥沙来源进行了分析计算 ,结果表明 :砒砂岩区小流域泥沙主要来源于沟谷地 ,占小流域总产沙量的 79.39%～84 .89% ;沟间地产沙量占总产沙量的 15 .86 %～ 2 0 .6 1%。

用Coifman区间尺度函数求解电磁场积分方程

该文采用Coifman区间尺度函数作为矩量法中的展开函数和权函数,求解电磁场积分方程,利用Coifman尺度函数的消失矩特性,减少计算矩阵元素的双重积分次数,同时对两个具有不同积分核的方程,提出了不同的消失矩近似方法。

Development of a Fuzzy Fire Risk Evaluation Model for Building Construction Sites in Hong Kong

Earlier research works on fire risk evaluation indicated that an objective,reliable,comprehensive,and practical fire risk evaluation model is essential for mitigating fire occurrence in building construction sites.Nevertheless,real empirical studies in this research area are quite limited.This journal paper gives an account of the second stage of a research study aiming at developing a fuzzy fire risk evaluation model for building construction sites in Hong Kong.The empirical research findings showed that the overall fire risk level of building construction sites is 3.6427,which can be interpreted as“moderate risk”.Also,the survey respondents perceived that“Restrictions for On-Site Personnel”is the most vital fire risk factor;with“Storage of Flammable Liquids or Dangerous Goods”being the second;and“Attitude of Main Contractor”the third.The proposed fuzzy fire risk evaluation model for building construction sites can be used to assess the overall fire risk level for a building construction site,and to identify improvement areas needed.Although the fuzzy fire risk evaluation model was developed domestically in Hong Kong,the research could be reproduced in other nations to develop similar models for international comparisons.Such an extension would provide a deeper understanding of the fire risk management on building construction sites.

Economic Dispatch of Power Systems with Virtual Power Plant Based Interval Optimization Method

Load prediction and power prediction uncertainties are inevitable aspects of a virtual power plant(VPP).In power system economic dispatch(ED)modeling,the interval is used to describe prediction uncertainties.An ED model with interval uncertainty is established in this paper.The probability degree definition is adopted to convert the interval-based economic dispatch model into a deterministic model for the purposes of solving the modeling problem.Simulation tests are performed on a 10-machine system using professional optimization software(LINGO).The simulation results verify the validity of the proposed interval-based scheme for the economic dispatch of a power system with VPP.

An interval finite element method for electromagnetic problems with spatially uncertain parameters

During the manufacturing process of dielectric materials used in electromagnetic engineering, the electromagnetic parameters are often spatially uncertain due to the processing technology, environmental temperature, personal operations, etc. Traditionally,the random field model can be used to measure the spatial uncertainties, but its construction requires a large number of samples.On the contrary, the interval field model only needs the upper and lower bounds of the spatially uncertain parameters, which requires much less samples and furthermore is easy to understand and use for engineers. Therefore, in this paper, the interval field model is introduced to describe the spatial uncertainties of dielectric materials, and then an interval finite element method(IFEM) is proposed to calculate the upper and lower bounds of electromagnetic responses. Firstly, the interval field of the dielectric material is represented by the interval K-L expansion and inserted into the scalar Helmholtz wave equations, and thus the interval equilibrium equations are constructed according to the node-based finite element method. Secondly, a perturbation interval finite element method is developed for calculating the upper and lower bounds of electromagnetic responses such as the electric strength and magnetic strength. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by three numerical examples.

Uncertain eigenvalue analysis of the dielectric-filled waveguide by an interval vector finite element method

Eigenvalues of the dielectric-filled waveguide are of great importance to its transmission characteristic analysis and optimization design, which could be easily affected by spatially uncertain dielectric parameters. For the sake of quantifying their influence on eigenvalues of the dielectric-filled waveguide and overcoming the limitation of less samples, an interval vector finite element method(IVFEM) is proposed to acquire the lower and upper bounds of the eigenvalues with spatial uncertainty of the medium parameters. Firstly, the uncertain dielectric material properties are described by the interval field model and the corresponding interval Karhunen-Loève(K-L) approximate method. Secondly, by inserting the interval uncertainties into the constitutive relationship of the standard generalized eigenvalue equations of the dielectric-filled waveguide, an interval standard generalized eigenvalue equation is then formulated. At last, the lower and upper bounds of the eigenvalues are calculated according to the first-order perturbation method, which can be used to estimate the transmission properties of the waveguide efficiently. Three kinds of the dielectric-filled waveguides are analyzed by the proposed IVFEM and verified by Monte Carlo simulation method.

Interval analysis of rotor dynamic response based on Chebyshev polynomials

Uncertainty is extensively involved in the rotor systems of rotating machinery, which may cause an unstable vibrational response. To take the uncertainty into consideration for the uncertain rotor-bearing system, an improved unified interval analysis method based on the Chebyshev expansion is established in this paper. Firstly, the Chebyshev Interval Method(CIM) to calculate not only the critical speeds but also the dynamic response of rotor with uncertain parameters is introduced. Then, the numerical investigation is carried out based on the developed double disk rotor model and computation procedure, and the results demonstrate the validity. But when the uncertainty is sufficiently large to influence critical speeds, the upper and lower bounds are far from the actual bounds. In order to overcome the defects, a Bound Correction Interval analysis Method(BCIM) is proposed based on the Chebyshev expansion and the modal superposition. In use of the improved method, the bounds of the interval responses, especially the upper bound,are corrected, and the comparison with other methods demonstrates that the higher accuracy and a wider application range.