Assessment of the Benefits of Targeted Interventions for Pandemic Control in China Based on Machine Learning Method and Web Service for COVID-19 Policy Simulation

Taking the Chinese city of Xiamen as an example,simulation and quantitative analysis were performed on the transmissions of the Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19)and the influence of intervention combinations to assist policymakers in the preparation of targeted response measures.A machine learning model was built to estimate the effectiveness of interventions and simulate transmission in different scenarios.The comparison was conducted between simulated and real cases in Xiamen.A web interface with adjustable parameters,including choice of intervention measures,intervention weights,vaccination,and viral variants,was designed for users to run the simulation.The total case number was set as the outcome.The cumulative number was 4,614,641 without restrictions and 78 under the strictest intervention set.Simulation with the parameters closest to the real situation of the Xiamen outbreak was performed to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model.The simulation model generated a duration of 52 days before the daily cases dropped to zero and the final cumulative case number of 200,which were 25 more days and 36 fewer cases than the real situation,respectively.Targeted interventions could benefit the prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak while safeguarding public health and mitigating impacts on people’s livelihood.

A View of Beijing’s Traffic Policy:Evaluation on the Policies Released in 2010 to Ease Traffic Congestion

In today’s society where the economy is developing rapidly and the process of urbanization is accelerating,the traffic in major cities in China is facing tremendous pressure.The economy of Beijing has developed rapidly,its population is dense,the living standard of people has improved significantly,and the number of cars has increased dramatically.From the end of 2005 to the end of November 2010,motor vehicles in Beijing increased from about 2.58 million to about 4.69 million.The problem of traffic congestion has become more prominent,affecting the daily lives of the residents.

Perceived Injustices in Forest Policy Interventions are Causes of Forest Resources Degradation and Loss in Ghana: A Review

Forests provide diverse co-benefits, including livelihoods enhancement, poverty alleviation, and biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services such as climate mitigation. Consequently, Ghana has embraced several global, regional, national, and local forest policy interventions to safeguard its forest resources’ sustainable management. However, the forest policy interventions have not adequately addressed the co-benefits issues of forest resources leading to several forest illegalities that drive forest resources degradation and loss. These forest policies and interventions on the ground primarily favour carbon stocks enhancement and sequestration activities for carbon mitigation purposes compared to the benefits, access and rights that forest-dependent people and communities are supposed to derive from forest resources. These perceived injustices in the access and distribution of forest resources have culminated into all forms of forest illegalities driving Ghana’s forest resources into massive degradation and loss. Currently, Ghana is experiencing a 2% rate of annual deforestation and forest degradation, which translates into approximately 135,000 ha/year of forest cover loss due to anthropogenic causes. Our review is based on relevant and critical forest documents, and scientific peer-reviewed papers on Ghana’s forest policy interventions and dynamics recently published. The information gathered enabled us to highlight the perceived injustices in the forest policy interventions and their effects on forest resources. Unjust forest resources sharing and distribution are critical drivers of forest resources degradation and loss. We thus offer lessons for remedying the unfair distribution and injustices to promote equitable forest resources rights and benefit access to local forest-dependent people. It is expected that this review will offer and assist forest policy, intervention spatial and other planners and designers to find a possible way forward to avoid nature degradation, including biodiversity loss, to resolve perceived injustices in the forestry sector, to use adequate all ecosystem services provided by forests as well as to promote local livelihood and sustainability.

Modeling the impacts of policy interventions from REDD+ in Southeast Asia: A case study in Indonesia

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation(REDD+) and enhancing "removals of greenhouse gas emissions by forests" in developing countries through positive incentives is regarded as an essential component of the post-2012 climate regime for stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions and an important way of engaging developing countries in global mitigation efforts. We aimed to evaluate the potential effectiveness of REDD+ by integrating it into a land use option framework. One of our goals was to develop scenarios for evaluating the impacts of land use changes on carbon and environmental processes. In addition, we aimed to quantify the potential economic benefits to society of compensated reductions and to identify hotspots for applying REDD+. Three land use change scenarios were examined:(I) business as usual(BAU),(II) economic development, and(III) REDD+. A case study in Indonesia was examined using these land use scenarios and policy interventions, evaluating their effects on carbon emissions, socioeconomics, and environmental features of a spatial system using land use models. Significant emissions and water erosion reductions were predicted to be achieved under the REDD+ scenario, due to reduced deforestation of <6% over the next decade; >0.14 Mt CO2 e reduction was predicted relative to the BAU scenario. Furthermore, the spatial land use model indicated that REDD+ payments of forest carbon credits in the compliance market would play a key role in compensating rural communities and plantation companies for their opportunity cost in ending deforestation. This study provides an example of integrating land use modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to evaluate the potential impacts of REDD+.

CROP-LIVESTOCK INTEGRATION FOR SUSTAINABLEAGRICULTURE IN CHINA:THE HISTORY OF STATE POLICY GOALS,REFORM OPPORTUNITIES AND INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS

This paper examines the historical evolution of crop-livestock integration in China with a specific focus on its role in mitigating non-point source pollution.Extensive examination of existing literature has unearthed the roots of croplivestock integration dating back to the Western Zhou Dynasty(1046 to 771BCE), ultimately culminating in a multifaceted and intricately interwoven system of rural development policies seen in contemporary China. This paper identifies and characterizes four distinct stages in the historical trajectory of crop-livestock integration: the era of self-sufficient subsistence production in traditional times(1046 BCE to 1948);the period where crop-livestock integration emerged as a pivotal strategy for augmenting grain and meat production under collectivist policies(1949-1977);the phase marked by the industrialization and expansion of the livestock sector during the early years of economic reforms(1978-2011);and the present era in which crop-livestock integration is harnessed as a mechanism for pollution control and ecological preservation in contemporary China(2012 to present). This paper illuminates the diverse contributions of crop-livestock integration in different epochs of rural development within China, which contributes to a nuanced and more theoretically grounded comprehension of circular agriculture. This understanding has the potential to be leveraged to promote sustainable rural development in broader contexts.

School Choice in China:Past,Present,and Future

Purpose:Focusing on the hot-debating issue of school choice in China,this article aims to present a narrative of the policy interventions,especially promulgated by the Chinese central government during the past 20 years,and to discuss those challenges facing the governments and the society as a whole in the new era.Design/Approach/Methods:This article conceptually approaches the topic based on policy texts analysis and literature review.Findings:This article pictures the historical dynamics of school choice phenomenon and its interaction with the corresponding policy initiatives promoted by the central government.It argues that school choice governing in China basically experienced three stages since the middle of 1990s,namely controlling“choice fees,”promoting equalization and equity as well as comprehensive governance toward greater quality and equity.The effective implementation of these policy measures is gradually cooling down the“choice fever”in urban areas and restoring order for student enrollment in compulsory education,but great challenges are still lying ahead since the problem of school choice turns to be“wicked”in nature and cannot be simply solved within the education sector.Originality/Value:This article contributes to the global discourse of school choice research with much updated information of policy initiatives and the newly emerged situations since 2014,calling for close attention and deeper research from researchers both from China and from abroad.