With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of inv...With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.展开更多
The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth t...The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth transmission paths of risk factors to the investment benefit by identifying 14 overseas oil and gas investment risks in four categories.On the basis of the concept of risk compensation,different compensation mechanisms specific to each risk are designed.The risk and benefit are integrated objectively to develop a comprehensive evaluation model by correcting the recoverable reserve,adjusting benefit evaluation parameters such as investments on exploration and development,and compensating for the changes in risk factors with time through dynamic discount rate.Moreover,two cases studies,namely the evaluations of Project A in Sudan and comparison among Blocks A–G,are used to describe usage method and applicable scope of such evaluation model,respectively.According to the results,oil price is a key influencing factor for enterprise internal risk and industrial risk.Risk compensation reduces comprehensive benefit of overseas oil and gas investment and undermines the investment feasibility and priority of blocks.The research findings of this paper are free from the effects of some subject factors and avoid multi-objective decision making,and also avoid the undesired repeated calculation of risk factors.展开更多
Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projec...Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.展开更多
The history of China's offshore oil industry can be traced back to late 1950's when geophysical surveys started in limited offshore areas.Then,in 1960's and 1970's,a few exploratory wells scattered fro...The history of China's offshore oil industry can be traced back to late 1950's when geophysical surveys started in limited offshore areas.Then,in 1960's and 1970's,a few exploratory wells scattered from north down to south were drilled resulting in a number of discoveries with the total proven oil in place being merely 40 million tons.In fact,the China's offshore oil industry in a real sence did not emerge on the horizon until early 1980's when China opened its door to outside world and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation(CNOOC)was born.展开更多
The global exploration investment, new oil and gas discoveries, exploration business adjustment strategies of oil companies in 2021, and future favorable exploration domains are systematically analyzed using commercia...The global exploration investment, new oil and gas discoveries, exploration business adjustment strategies of oil companies in 2021, and future favorable exploration domains are systematically analyzed using commercial databases such as IHS and public information of oil companies. It has been found that the world oil and gas exploration situation in 2021 has continued the downturn since the outbreak of COVID-19. The investment and drilling workload decreased slightly, but the success rate of exploration wells, especially deepwater exploration wells, increased significantly, and the newly discovered reserves increased slightly compared with last year. Deep waters of the passive continental margin basins are still the leading sites for discovering conventional large and medium-sized oil and gas fields. The conventional oil and gas exploration in deep formations of onshore petroliferous basins has been keeping a good state, with tight/shale oil and gas discoveries made in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other countries. While strengthening the exploration and development of local resources, national, international, and independent oil companies have been focusing on major overseas frontiers using their advantages, including risk exploration in deep waters and natural gas. Future favorable exploration directions in the three major frontiers, the global deep waters, deep onshore formations, and unconventional resources, have been clarified. Four suggestions are put forward for the global exploration business of Chinese oil companies: first, a farm in global deepwater frontier basins in advance through bidding at a low cost and adopt the “dual exploration model” after making large-scale discoveries;second, enter new blocks of emerging hot basins in the world through farm-in and other ways, to find large oil and gas fields quickly;third, cooperate with national oil companies of the resource host countries in the form of joint research and actively participate exploration of deep onshore formations of petroliferous basins;fourth, track tight/shale oil and gas cooperation opportunities in a few countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, and take advantage of mature domestic theories and technologies to farm in at an appropriate time.展开更多
By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their ye...By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.展开更多
The paper presents data on the modern state of some important botanical territories of the Ustyurt plateau. Materials on the effect of dust rising from the main highway of the oil and gas sector on the vegetation cove...The paper presents data on the modern state of some important botanical territories of the Ustyurt plateau. Materials on the effect of dust rising from the main highway of the oil and gas sector on the vegetation cover of the adjacent areas studied are considered. The results of the analysis showed that the vitality of dominants and rare species along the road and closer to it is low, the projective coverage does not exceed 8%. Starting from 100 to 200 m, the vitality of the dominants improves. With a distance of 500 m from the roads, the species composition increases, the projective coverage reaches 12%. The evaluation of the vitality of dominant and/or endemic species, the comparison of the projective cover and the species diversity of the pilot site with the control plot, and also the method of weighing the annual shoots of dominant and/or rare species with all vegetative and generative elements in a comparative aspect give reliable results in determining the degree Anthropogenic impact on the vegetation cover of Ustyurt. Inclusion of dominants the restoration of vegetation by phytoremediation of the study area gives promising results.展开更多
Somaliland declared independence after the fall of the Central Government of Somalia in 1991. Early peace settlements and state-building efforts led to transitional government and early democratic contestations includ...Somaliland declared independence after the fall of the Central Government of Somalia in 1991. Early peace settlements and state-building efforts led to transitional government and early democratic contestations including presidential elections in a hybrid state framework. This emerging democracy in a conflict-torn region is challenged by weak accountability and power imbalances between the three government branches. Over the past few years, the current ruling party started to engage with foreign companies to carry out exploration activities in onshore blocks utilizing existing information on the distribution of natural resources of oil, and gas and to lesser extent mining. Following an informal auction of selling licenses for resource exploration among various companies, Genel Energy amongst others;Somaliland has no competent institutions in managing revenues for long-term development due to two distinctive factors: 1) absence of strong legal and political frameworks specific to governance of extractive industry;2) weak fiscal regimes across spectrum of extractive companies, the state and investors.展开更多
基金the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71934004)Key Projects of the National Social Science Foundation(23AZD065)the Project of the CNOOC Energy Economics Institute(EEI-2022-IESA0009)。
文摘With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.
文摘The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth transmission paths of risk factors to the investment benefit by identifying 14 overseas oil and gas investment risks in four categories.On the basis of the concept of risk compensation,different compensation mechanisms specific to each risk are designed.The risk and benefit are integrated objectively to develop a comprehensive evaluation model by correcting the recoverable reserve,adjusting benefit evaluation parameters such as investments on exploration and development,and compensating for the changes in risk factors with time through dynamic discount rate.Moreover,two cases studies,namely the evaluations of Project A in Sudan and comparison among Blocks A–G,are used to describe usage method and applicable scope of such evaluation model,respectively.According to the results,oil price is a key influencing factor for enterprise internal risk and industrial risk.Risk compensation reduces comprehensive benefit of overseas oil and gas investment and undermines the investment feasibility and priority of blocks.The research findings of this paper are free from the effects of some subject factors and avoid multi-objective decision making,and also avoid the undesired repeated calculation of risk factors.
基金supported from the National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant No.2011ZX05030
文摘Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.
文摘The history of China's offshore oil industry can be traced back to late 1950's when geophysical surveys started in limited offshore areas.Then,in 1960's and 1970's,a few exploratory wells scattered from north down to south were drilled resulting in a number of discoveries with the total proven oil in place being merely 40 million tons.In fact,the China's offshore oil industry in a real sence did not emerge on the horizon until early 1980's when China opened its door to outside world and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation(CNOOC)was born.
基金Petro China Scientific Research and Technology Development Project(2021DJ3101,2022-FW-041)。
文摘The global exploration investment, new oil and gas discoveries, exploration business adjustment strategies of oil companies in 2021, and future favorable exploration domains are systematically analyzed using commercial databases such as IHS and public information of oil companies. It has been found that the world oil and gas exploration situation in 2021 has continued the downturn since the outbreak of COVID-19. The investment and drilling workload decreased slightly, but the success rate of exploration wells, especially deepwater exploration wells, increased significantly, and the newly discovered reserves increased slightly compared with last year. Deep waters of the passive continental margin basins are still the leading sites for discovering conventional large and medium-sized oil and gas fields. The conventional oil and gas exploration in deep formations of onshore petroliferous basins has been keeping a good state, with tight/shale oil and gas discoveries made in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other countries. While strengthening the exploration and development of local resources, national, international, and independent oil companies have been focusing on major overseas frontiers using their advantages, including risk exploration in deep waters and natural gas. Future favorable exploration directions in the three major frontiers, the global deep waters, deep onshore formations, and unconventional resources, have been clarified. Four suggestions are put forward for the global exploration business of Chinese oil companies: first, a farm in global deepwater frontier basins in advance through bidding at a low cost and adopt the “dual exploration model” after making large-scale discoveries;second, enter new blocks of emerging hot basins in the world through farm-in and other ways, to find large oil and gas fields quickly;third, cooperate with national oil companies of the resource host countries in the form of joint research and actively participate exploration of deep onshore formations of petroliferous basins;fourth, track tight/shale oil and gas cooperation opportunities in a few countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, and take advantage of mature domestic theories and technologies to farm in at an appropriate time.
基金Scientific Research and Technology Development Project(2021DJ3205)。
文摘By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.
文摘The paper presents data on the modern state of some important botanical territories of the Ustyurt plateau. Materials on the effect of dust rising from the main highway of the oil and gas sector on the vegetation cover of the adjacent areas studied are considered. The results of the analysis showed that the vitality of dominants and rare species along the road and closer to it is low, the projective coverage does not exceed 8%. Starting from 100 to 200 m, the vitality of the dominants improves. With a distance of 500 m from the roads, the species composition increases, the projective coverage reaches 12%. The evaluation of the vitality of dominant and/or endemic species, the comparison of the projective cover and the species diversity of the pilot site with the control plot, and also the method of weighing the annual shoots of dominant and/or rare species with all vegetative and generative elements in a comparative aspect give reliable results in determining the degree Anthropogenic impact on the vegetation cover of Ustyurt. Inclusion of dominants the restoration of vegetation by phytoremediation of the study area gives promising results.
文摘Somaliland declared independence after the fall of the Central Government of Somalia in 1991. Early peace settlements and state-building efforts led to transitional government and early democratic contestations including presidential elections in a hybrid state framework. This emerging democracy in a conflict-torn region is challenged by weak accountability and power imbalances between the three government branches. Over the past few years, the current ruling party started to engage with foreign companies to carry out exploration activities in onshore blocks utilizing existing information on the distribution of natural resources of oil, and gas and to lesser extent mining. Following an informal auction of selling licenses for resource exploration among various companies, Genel Energy amongst others;Somaliland has no competent institutions in managing revenues for long-term development due to two distinctive factors: 1) absence of strong legal and political frameworks specific to governance of extractive industry;2) weak fiscal regimes across spectrum of extractive companies, the state and investors.
