Predicting the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property based on microscale rock mechanical experiments and accurate grain-based modeling

The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.

Joint probability distribution of winds and waves from wave simulation of 20 years (1989-2008) in Bohai Bay

The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard （GH） copula function, and the Clayton copula function. Twenty years of wind data from 1989 to 2008 were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） database and the blended wind data of the Quick Scatterometer （QSCAT） satellite data set and re-analysis data from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Several typhoons were taken into account and merged with the background wind fields from the ECMWF or QSCAT/NCEP database. The 20-year data of significant wave height were calculated with the unstructured-grid version of the third-generation wind wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore （SWAN） under extreme wind process conditions. The Gumbel distribution was used for univariate and marginal distributions. The distribution parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Based on the marginal distributions, the joint probability distributions, the associated return periods, and the conditional probability distributions were obtained. The GH copula function was found to be optimal according to the ordinary least squares （OLS） test. The results show that wind waves are the prevailing type of wave in the Bohai Bay.

Probability Distribution Characteristics of Strong Nonlinear Waves Under Typhoon Conditions in the Northern South China Sea

The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.

Probability Distribution of Ratio of China Aviation Network Edge Vertices Degree and Its Evolutionary Trace Based on Complex Network

In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network, the probability distribution and evolution trace of ratio of China aviation network edge vertices degree were studied based on the statistics data of China civil aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015. According to the theory and method of complex network, the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the route between cities as the edge of the network. Based on the statistical data, the ratio of edge vertices degree in China aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015 were calculated. Using the probability statistical analysis method and regression analysis approach, it was found that the ratio of edge vertices degree had linear probability distribution and the two parameters of the probability distribution had linear evolution trace.

The joint long-term distribution of design environmental factors for offshore structures Multivariate probabilities and simulating method

With the development of ocean engineering, it is one of the most important factors which determine the structural safety, cost and suitable forms of engineerings to select the ocean environmental design criteria. Owing to the complexity , variation and randomness of ocean environmental conditions, the commonly used methods for determining design criteria cannot consider the joint occurring probabilities of several environmental factors ,therefore, lead to overestimate design criteria of them and result in an unnecessary overspend invest in engineering. On the basis of the measured and hindcasting data and the multi-demension joint probability theory, this paper presented the study of the joint loads of wind , wave and current on the offshore structures and its responsible joint probability level with the application of random simulation techniques, and presented the joint design criteria of environmental loads for the realistic design of engineerings.

Uncertainty and joint probability of sea ice loads

Ice load is one of the most important factors for design of marine stuctures in cold sea area.The designcriteria of ice loads for marine structures consist of two parts: level ice thickness and crushing strength. Due to thestrong randomness of the affecting factors on ice thickness and crushing strength, such as ice temperature,air temperature, water temperature,salinity,wind field, numerical simulation method method can not produce satisfactory results. Thispaper proposes a method of uncertainty analysis and joint probabilistic prediction of level ice thickness and crushingstrength instead of traditional ice load criteria for marine structures.

Joint modelling of location and scale parameters of the skew-normal distribution

Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

Finite element analysis of stress and strain distributions in mortise and loose tenon furniture joints

We studied the effect of loose tenon dimensions on stress and strain distributions in T-shaped mortise and loose tenon （M＆amp;LT） furni-ture joints under uniaxial bending loads, and determined the effects of loose tenon length （30, 45, 60, and 90 mm） and loose tenon thickness （6 and 8 mm） on bending moment capacity of M＆amp;LT joints constructed with polyvinyl acetate （PVAc） adhesive. Stress and strain distributions in joint elements were then estimated for each joint using ANSYS finite element （FE） software. The bending moment capacity of joints increased significantly with thickness and length of the tenon. Based on the FE analysis results, under uniaxial bending, the highest shear stress values were obtained in the middle parts of the tenon, while the highest shear elastic strain values were estimated in glue lines between the tenon sur-faces and walls of the mortise. Shear stress and shear elastic strain values in joint elements generally increased with tenon dimensions and corre-sponding bending moment capacities. There was consistency between predicted maximum shear stress values and failure modes of the joints.

Joint probability density function of the stochastic responses of nonlinear structures

The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.

Research on the behavior of fiber orientation probability distribution function in the planar flows

The equation of two-dimensional fiber direction vector was solved theoretically to give the fiber orientation distri- bution in simple shear flow, flow with two direction shears, extensional flow and arbitrary planar incompressible flow. The Fok- ker-Planck equation was solved numerically to validify the theoretical solutions. The stable orientation and orientation period of fiber were obtained. The results showed that the fiber orientation distribution is dependent on the relative not absolute magnitude of the matrix rate-of-strain of flow. The effect of fiber aspect ratio on the orientation distribution of fiber is insignificant in most conditions except the simple shear case. It was proved that the results for a planar flow could be generalized to the case of 3-D fiber direction vector.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF NEAR-WALL TURBULENT VELOCITY FLUCTUATIONS

By large eddy simulation （LES）, turbulent databases of channel flows at different Reynolds numbers were established. Then, the probability distribution functions of the streamwise and wall-normal velocity fluctuations were obtained and compared with the corresponding normal distributions. By hypothesis test, the deviation from the normal distribution was analyzed quantitatively. The skewness and flatness factors were also calculated. And the variations of these two factors in the viscous sublayer, buffer layer and log-law layer were discussed. Still illustrated were the relations between the probability distribution functions and the burst events-sweep of high-speed fluids and ejection of low-speed fluidsIin the viscous sub-layer, buffer layer and loglaw layer. Finally the variations of the probability distribution functions with Reynolds number were examined.

Derivation of Gaussian Probability Distribution: A New Approach

The famous de Moivre’s Laplace limit theorem proved the probability density function of Gaussian distribution from binomial probability mass function under specified conditions. De Moivre’s Laplace approach is cumbersome as it relies heavily on many lemmas and theorems. This paper invented an alternative and less rigorous method of deriving Gaussian distribution from basic random experiment conditional on some assumptions.

Quantum Image Searching Based on Probability Distributions

A quantum image searching method is proposed based on the probability distributions of the readouts from the quantum measurements. It is achieved by using low computational resources which are only a single Hadamard gate combined with m + 1 quantum measurement operations. To validate the proposed method, a simulation experiment is used where the image with the highest similarity value of 0.93 to the particular test image is retrieved as the search result from 4 × 4 binary image database. The proposal provides a basic step for designing a search engine on quantum computing devices where the image in the database is retrieved based on its similarity to the test image.

New Probability Distributions in Astrophysics: I. The Truncated Generalized Gamma

The gamma function is a good approximation to the luminosity function of astrophysical objects, and a truncated gamma distribution would permit a more rigorous analysis. This paper examines the generalized gamma distribution (GG) and then introduces the scale and the new double truncation. The magnitude version of the truncated GG distribution with scale is adopted in order to fit the luminosity function (LF) for galaxies or quasars. The new truncated GG LF is applied to the five bands of SDSS galaxies, to the 2dF QSO Redshift Survey in the range of redshifts between 0.3 and 0.5, and to the COSMOS QSOs in the range of redshifts between 3.7 and 4.7. The average absolute magnitude versus redshifts for SDSS galaxies and QSOs of 2dF was modeled adopting a redshift dependence for the lower and upper absolute magnitude of the new truncated GG LF.

Analytical Evaluation of Non-Elementary Integrals Involving Some Exponential, Hyperbolic and Trigonometric Elementary Functions and Derivation of New Probability Measures Generalizing the Gamma-Type and Gaussian-Type Distributions

The non-elementary integrals involving elementary exponential, hyperbolic and trigonometric functions, and where α,η and β are real or complex constants are evaluated in terms of the confluent hypergeometric function 1F1 and the hypergeometric function 1F2. The hyperbolic and Euler identities are used to derive some identities involving exponential, hyperbolic, trigonometric functions and the hypergeometric functions 1F1 and 1F2. Having evaluated, these non-elementary integrals, some new probability measures generalizing the gamma-type and Gaussian distributions are also obtained. The obtained generalized probability distributions may, for example, allow to perform better statistical tests than those already known (e.g. chi-square (x2) statistical tests and other statistical tests constructed based on the central limit theorem (CLT)), while avoiding the use of computational approximations (or methods) which are in general expensive and associated with numerical errors.

Parametric message passing-based relative navigation in joint tactical information distribution system

Relative navigation is a key feature in the joint tactical information distribution system（JTIDS）.A parametric message passing algorithm based on factor graph is proposed to perform relative navigation in JTIDS.First of all,the joint posterior distribution of all the terminals＇ positions is represented by factor graph.Because of the nonlinearity between the positions and time-of-arrival（TOA） measurement,messages cannot be obtained in closed forms by directly using the sum-product algorithm on factor graph.To this end,the Euclidean norm is approximated by Taylor expansion.Then,all the messages on the factor graph can be derived in Gaussian forms,which enables the terminals to transmit means and covariances.Finally,the impact of major error sources on the navigation performance are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations,e.g.,range measurement noise,priors of position uncertainty and velocity noise.Results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the extended Kalman filter and cooperative extended Kalman filter in both static and mobile scenarios of the JTIDS.

Bayesian Joint Modelling of Survival Time and Longitudinal CD4 Cell Counts Using Accelerated Failure Time and Generalized Error Distributions

Survival of HIV/AIDS patients is crucially dependent on comprehensive and targeted medical interventions such as supply of antiretroviral therapy and monitoring disease progression with CD4 T-cell counts. Statistical modelling approaches are helpful towards this goal. This study aims at developing Bayesian joint models with assumed generalized error distribution (GED) for the longitudinal CD4 data and two accelerated failure time distributions, Lognormal and loglogistic, for the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients. Data are obtained from patients under antiretroviral therapy follow-up at Shashemene referral hospital during January 2006-January 2012 and at Bale Robe general hospital during January 2008-March 2015. The Bayesian joint models are defined through latent variables and association parameters and with specified non-informative prior distributions for the model parameters. Simulations are conducted using Gibbs sampler algorithm implemented in the WinBUGS software. The results of the analyses of the two different data sets show that distributions of measurement errors of the longitudinal CD4 variable follow the generalized error distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution. The Bayesian joint GED loglogistic models fit better to the data sets compared to the lognormal cases. Findings reveal that patients’ health can be improved over time. Compared to the males, female patients gain more CD4 counts. Survival time of a patient is negatively affected by TB infection. Moreover, increase in number of opportunistic infection implies decline of CD4 counts. Patients’ age negatively affects the disease marker with no effects on survival time. Improving weight may improve survival time of patients. Bayesian joint models with GED and AFT distributions are found to be useful in modelling the longitudinal and survival processes. Thus we recommend the generalized error distributions for measurement errors of the longitudinal data under the Bayesian joint modelling. Further studies may investigate the models with various types of shared random effects and more covariates with predictions.

The Cox-Aalen Models as Framework for Construction of Bivariate Probability Distributions, Universal Representation

Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict ourselves to model positive stochastic dependences only with the general assumption that the underlying two marginal random variables are centered on the set of nonnegative real values. With only these assumptions we obtain nice general characterization of bivariate probability distributions that may play similar role as the copula methodology. Examples of reliability and biomedical applications are given.

Long-Term Joint Distribution of One-Tenth Large (or Significant) Wave Height with Average Period

In this paper, by using the wave data from a few oceanographic observation stations in the coastal zone of the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the long-term joint distribution of the one-tenth large (or significant) wave height with average period is studied. The statistical data demonstrate that the long- term distribution of the one- tenth wave height or average period fits the log-normal distribution, thus the joint distribution also fits the two-dimensional log-normal distribution. Then the conditional probability distribution of the average period is derived, and the range as well as the mode of the average wave period corresponding to a certain return period of wave height can be calculated easily.

The Probability Density Function Related to Shallow Cumulus Entrainment Rate and Its Influencing Factors in a Large-Eddy Simulation

The process of entrainment-mixing between cumulus clouds and the ambient air is important for the development of cumulus clouds.Accurately obtaining the entrainment rate(λ)is particularly important for its parameterization within the overall cumulus parameterization scheme.In this study,an improved bulk-plume method is proposed by solving the equations of two conserved variables simultaneously to calculateλof cumulus clouds in a large-eddy simulation.The results demonstrate that the improved bulk-plume method is more reliable than the traditional bulk-plume method,becauseλ,as calculated from the improved method,falls within the range ofλvalues obtained from the traditional method using different conserved variables.The probability density functions ofλfor all data,different times,and different heights can be well-fitted by a log-normal distribution,which supports the assumed stochastic entrainment process in previous studies.Further analysis demonstrate that the relationship betweenλand the vertical velocity is better than other thermodynamic/dynamical properties;thus,the vertical velocity is recommended as the primary influencing factor for the parameterization ofλin the future.The results of this study enhance the theoretical understanding ofλand its influencing factors and shed new light on the development ofλparameterization.