Based on Wuhan city investigation, this paper makes a positive analysis to the uncertainty of shifting rural labors to urban areas, and put forward thoughts and countermeasures to avert the risk of the interregional f...Based on Wuhan city investigation, this paper makes a positive analysis to the uncertainty of shifting rural labors to urban areas, and put forward thoughts and countermeasures to avert the risk of the interregional flow of rural labors.展开更多
Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during t...Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.展开更多
Through description of three-steps characteristic of dual economic theory and its practical significance to the process of industrialization and urbanization in China,and making comparative analysis between important ...Through description of three-steps characteristic of dual economic theory and its practical significance to the process of industrialization and urbanization in China,and making comparative analysis between important criterion of "Lewis turning point" and current situation of rural surplus labors market in China,we can find that there exists a great deal of surplus labors in rural areas in our country,improvement of peasant income is the result of external interference of government,and demographic dividend in our country hasn't finished.These phenomena go against the theory of "Lewis turning point".So it can prove that "Lewis turning point" in China hasn't come yet.The paper points out the major factors of coexistence of "migrant workers scarcity" and labors redundancy in our country.The first one is structure contradiction of labors market;the second one is law of supply-demand of labors market;the third one is institutional barrier which hinders labors in free flow of census register and social guarantee.Therefore,if we want to realize successful transfer of rural surplus labors and the goal of industrialization and urbanization,we must promote upgrading of industrial structure,change the style of economic growth and realize harmonious development of regional economy in macrocosmic level;And in microcosmic level,we should eliminate institutional barrier which hinders transfer of rural surplus labors.展开更多
文摘Based on Wuhan city investigation, this paper makes a positive analysis to the uncertainty of shifting rural labors to urban areas, and put forward thoughts and countermeasures to avert the risk of the interregional flow of rural labors.
基金the National Social Sciences Foundation Program "A Study on the Effects of Changing Demographic Structure on China's Economic Deceleration and Countermeasures"
文摘Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.
文摘Through description of three-steps characteristic of dual economic theory and its practical significance to the process of industrialization and urbanization in China,and making comparative analysis between important criterion of "Lewis turning point" and current situation of rural surplus labors market in China,we can find that there exists a great deal of surplus labors in rural areas in our country,improvement of peasant income is the result of external interference of government,and demographic dividend in our country hasn't finished.These phenomena go against the theory of "Lewis turning point".So it can prove that "Lewis turning point" in China hasn't come yet.The paper points out the major factors of coexistence of "migrant workers scarcity" and labors redundancy in our country.The first one is structure contradiction of labors market;the second one is law of supply-demand of labors market;the third one is institutional barrier which hinders labors in free flow of census register and social guarantee.Therefore,if we want to realize successful transfer of rural surplus labors and the goal of industrialization and urbanization,we must promote upgrading of industrial structure,change the style of economic growth and realize harmonious development of regional economy in macrocosmic level;And in microcosmic level,we should eliminate institutional barrier which hinders transfer of rural surplus labors.
