Hydrological response to land use and land cover changes in a sub-watershed of West Liaohe River Basin,China

In recent years, the streamflow of the Laohahe Basin in China showed a dramatic decrease during the rainy season as a result of climate change and/or human activities. The objective of this work was to document significant streamflow changes caused by land use and land cover （LULC） changes and to quantify the impacts of the observed changes in Laohahe Basin. in the study area, the observed streamflow has been influenced by LULC changes, dams, and irrigation from rivers, industry, livestock and human consumption. Most importantly, the growth of population and gross domestic product （GDP） accompanied by the growth in industrial and agricultural activities, which led to LULC changes with increased residential land and cropland and decreased grassland since 2000s. Statistical methods and Variable Infiltration Capacity （VIC） hydrological model were used to estimate the effects of climate change and LULC changes on streamflow and evaportranspiration lET）. First, the streamflow data of the study area were divided into three sub-periods according to the Pettitt test. The hydrological process was then simulated by VIC model from 1964 to 2009. Furthermore, we compared the simulated results based on land use scenarios in 1989, 1999 and 2007, respectively for exploring the effect of LULC changes on the spatio-temporal distribution of streamflow and ET in the Laohahe Basin. The results suggest that, accompanied with climate change, the LULC changes and human water consumption appeared to be the most likely factors contributing to the sig- nificant reduction in streamflow in the Laohahe Basin by 64% from1999 to 2009.

Land use and land cover changes in small Carpathian catchments between the mid-19^th and early 21^st centuries and their record on the land surface

Land use and land cover(LULC) changes and their impact on the mountain environment were studied in six catchments(～10 km^2 each) in the Polish Western Carpathians from the mid-19^(th) century to the early 21^(st) century. The analysis of cadastral and orthophoto maps indicates that during the investigated period, the forest area increased, quantified by an annual change index(Annch), between +0.12% to +0.27%, with a decrease of arable land index to –0.45% and –2.28% in the analysed catchments. LULC changes were accompanied by a continuous increase in settlement developments(residential and farming houses) by 50%-140% as well as significant changes related to their spatial distribution. Abandonment of arable land and forest succession have resulted in the geomorphological transformation of hillslopes, which predominantly includes a decrease in used road density, their transformation to road cuts and gorges. Overpopulation and the domination agriculture in the past caused the expansion of unpaved roads density and then the fragmentation of hillslopes, as well as the development of agricultural terraces.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Awash National Park, Ethiopia: Impact of Decentralization on the Use and Management of Resources

We analyzed the magnitude of land use land cover changes and identified drivers of those changes at Awash National Park, Ethiopia, using aerial photographs, satellite images and field observation. Scattered bushland—the most important habitat for the wild animals, declined drastically. Areas under grassland, farmland or open land increased over the study period. Policy and park border demarcation issues were identified as drivers of change before 1995 (before decentralization), whereas livestock grazing was indicated to be the leading driver of change after 1995. Major events and causes that largely explained these changes include immigration of the Ittu community, land tenure system, drought, poaching, use policy issues and regional economic and infrastructural development. Our study reveals that the sustainability of the park calls for an immediate action to reduce the ever increasing human and livestock pressure on park resources.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Arid Region: The Case New Urbanized Zone, Northeast Cairo, Egypt

The spatial characteristics of land cover are useful for understanding the various impacts of human activity on the overall ecological conditions of the urban environment. The multi-temporal Landsat images (TM) between the years of 1990 and 2003 were used together with the Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to evaluate the environmental changes in the area around Gabal El Hamza and the surrounding urban expansion in the new urban cities at the northeast side of the Greater Cairo by using the post classification change detection technique and field investigation. Five major units were determined including: urban, cultivated land, Holocene sand dunes, Oligocene basalt and Miocene–Pleistocene sediments. The cultivated cover changed from 89.6 to 150.4 km2 for the years of 1990 and 2003 respectively. The urban area increased from 49.5 to 120.9 km2 with a great value of change reached 71.3 km2 . The basaltic exposures changed from 3 to 3.75 km2 . The sandy cover decreased from 68.9 to 60.1 km2 and the exposures of the rock units changed from 904.8 to 780.8 km2 with removing 124 km2 in 13 years. The total accuracy of the Landsat-derived land cover data was 95 and 92% for the years 1990 and 2003 respectively. Landsat TM thermal infrared data indicated that the surface temperature was strongly affected by the land cover changes.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes in a Tropical River Basin: A Case from Bharathapuzha River Basin, Southern India

A study of the spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) was conducted using Remote Sensing and GIS. We analyzed the LULC of Bharathapuzha river basin, south India using multispectral LANDSAT imageries of 1973-2005 time periods. 31% depletion in the natural vegetation cover and 8.7% depletion in wetland agriculture area were seen in the basin during the period. On the other hand the urban spread in the basin increased by 32%. The study highlights the need for a scientific management plan for the sustainability of the river basin, keeping in view the recent climatic anomalies and hydrological conditions of the basin.

Shrinking greenery： Land use and land cover changes in Kurram Agency, Kohi Safid Mountains of north-western Pakistan

Deforestation and other Land Use and Land Cover(LULC) changes, driven by variety of physical and anthropogenic factors, have altered the mountainous environment. Mountains around the world including northern and north western belts of Pakistan are highly sensitive to deforestation and other LULC changes, which have profound impacts on various sectors of bio-physical and socio-economic systems. Assessment of LULC changes has high significance for protection, conservation and monitoring mountainous environment. The present study is an attempt to assess the landscape changes with particular reference to forest cover depletion in Kurram Agency located in the north western mountain belt of Pakistan. For detailed comparative analysis the study area has been divided into three sections, which coincide with the present administrative divisions of the Agency, i.e., Upper,Lower and Central Kurram. Temporal span of this study covers four decades. In this study, land use map of 1970 and land sat satellite imageries of 1987, 2000 and 2014 were used as spatial data sets. The images were processed and classified into six LULC classes through geospatial packages and change detection maps were prepared for each division and time period.Findings of the study reveal two trends in the four major LULC categories. Forest and rangeland have shrunk, on average, by 15% and 7.5% respectively while, bare soil and rocks outcrops have expanded by 89% and agriculture land by 7.2% in Kurram agency.The water bodies and snow cover have minor fluctuation in its land area. Major causes of shrinking greenery is attributed to high influx of Afghan refugees and high energy demand of growing population. However, with outflow of the refugees from Kurram agency the general trend in forest cover has reverted and deforestation rate has slowed down.

Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Surface Runoff and Sediment Yield in the Little Ruaha River Catchment

Little Ruaha River catchment (6370 Km2) in the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT), is one of the country’s most significant waterways due to its ecological composition and economic value. Regardless of its ecological and economical value, the regional hydrologic condition has been tremendously affected due to land uses alteration, influenced by different socio-economic factors. This study aimed to understand the associated impacts of the present Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change on the surface runoff and sediment yield in the Little Ruaha River Catchment. Hydrological modelling using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Model) was done to quantify the impact of land use and land cover dynamics on catchment water balance and sediment loads. The calibration and validation of the SWAT model were performed using sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2). The results showed that, for the given LULC change, the average annual surface runoff increased by 2.78 mm while average annual total sediment loading increased by 3.56 t/ha, the average annual base flow decreased by 2.68 mm, ground water shallow aquifer recharge decreased from 2.97 mm and a slight decrease in average annual ground water deep aquifer recharge by 0.14 mm. The model predicts that in the future, there will be a further increase in both surface runoff and sediment load. Such changes, increased runoff generation and sediment yield with decreased base flow have implications on the sustenance flow regimes particularly the observed reduced dry season river flow of the Little Ruaha River, which in turn cause adverse impacts to the biotic component of the ecosystem, reduced water storage and energy production at Mtera Hydroelectrical dam also increasing the chances of flooding at some times of the year. The study recommends land use planning at the village level, and conservation agricultural practices to ameliorate the current situation. Developing multidisciplinary approaches for integrated catchment management is the key to the sustainability of Little Ruaha River catchment.

Evaluating the impacts of land use and land cover changes on surface air temperature using the WRF-mosaic approach

如何量化土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)对区域气候的影响,是人类活动影响气候变化研究中的一个难点。本文利用卫星遥感反映过去三十年东亚区域土地利用变化数据,基于Mosaic近似考虑土地利用及其变化次网格尺度过程,量化了LUCC对地表辐射收支及气温的影响。过去三十年土地利用/覆盖变化对东亚区域总体呈降温效应(中国东部地区增温效应),LUCC导致的地表反照率变化影响地表辐射收支,中国和东亚区域的辐射强迫分别为-0.56 W m^(-2)和-0.50 W m^(-2)。

Assessing the Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Hydrology of the Mbarali River Sub-Catchment. The Case of Upper Great Ruaha Sub-Basin, Tanzania

Intensification of agricultural land use and population growth from 1990-2017 has caused changes in land cover and land use of the Mbarali River sub-catchment which is located in the Upper Great Ruaha Sub basin, Tanzania. This has affected the magnitude of the surface runoff, total water yield and the groundwater flow. This study assesses the impacts of the land cover and land use changes on the stream flows and hydrological water balance components (surface runoff, water yield, percolation and actual evapotranspiration). The land use and land cover (LULC) maps for three window period snapshots, 1990, 2006 and 2017 were created from Landsat TM and OLI_TIRS with the help of QGIS version 2.6. Supervised classification was used to generate LULC maps using the Maximum Likelihood Algorithm and Kappa statistics for assessment of accuracy. SWAT was set up and run to simulate stream flows and hydrological water balance components. The assessment of the impacts of land use and land cover changes on stream flows and hydrological water balance component was performed by comparing hydrological parameters simulated by SWAT using land use scenarios of 2006 and 2017 against the baseline land use scenario of 1990. Accuracy of LULC classification was good with Kappa statistics ranging between 0.9 and 0.99. There was a drastic increase in areal coverage of cultivated land, for periods 1990-2006 (5.84%) and 2006-2017 (12.05%) compared to other LULC. During 2006 and 2017 surface runoff increased by 4% and 9% respectively;however, water yield increased by only 0.5% compared to 1990 baseline period. This was attributed to increased proportion of cultivated land in the sub-catchment which has a high curve number (59.60) that indicates a higher runoff response and low infiltration rate.

Identifying the Rates and Drivers of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Hurungwe District, Zimbabwe: A GIS and Remote Sensing Approach

Identifying spatiotemporal patterns of land use and land cover changes (LULCC) and their impacts on the natural environment is essential in policy decisions for effective, sustainable natural resource management solutions. This study employed supervised image classification in Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud-based platform to assess the land cover land use changes for the past 30 years (1989-2020), as well as predict the land cover states and the risk of future forest loss in the next ten years, using TerrSet 20 software in Hurungwe district, Zimbabwe. The study findings revealed a net forest area and shrub loss of 32% and 10%, while croplands, water bodies, and bare lands have increased by about 171%, 7%, and 119% between 1989 and 2020, respectively. Croplands are the major contributor to the net change in forests, particularly tobacco farming. The predictive model estimated that by 2030 the district would lose approximately 7% of the current forest cover area, most likely converted into croplands, shrubs, and settlements. The results reinforce the importance of bridging the gap between socioeconomic activities and institutional policies to ensure proper natural resource management. Integrating institutional policy and socioeconomic goals is indispensable to ensure sustainable development.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes of West Tahta Region,Sohag Governorate,Upper Egypt

Due to the growing of population in Egypt during the last few decades, great changes in agricultural area, and urbanization of Egypt art occurred. In this study we utilized the available record of multitemporal Land sat Thematic Mapper (Tm) and Egyptsat image to produce land cover/land use map of the area between 1987 and 2009. Also we used the post-classification change detection analysis to detect the change in the agriculture, urban areas and the change in the River Nile during the period between 1987 and 2009. The post-classification change detection analysis shows that agriculture development increased by 1785.96 Hectare through the study period with average annual rate of land reclamation 81.18 Hectare/year. While the urban area increased by 2231.24 Hectare with average annual rate 101.42 Hectare/ year the increase of the urbanization and the growth occurring through encroachment into the farmer old cultivated lands. The change in the River Nile is not so much is reached to 138.32 hectare in the study period with average annual rate 6.29 Hectare/year. The result of this study show that, the accuracy are quantify with the land cover changes and also delineate their spatial patterns, which display the efficiency of land sat in evaluating landscape dynamics over a particular time span. This data are very useful for natural resources management.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of land use/land cover(LULC)changes in the Jinghe River Basin,China

Understanding the trajectories and driving mechanisms behind land use/land cover(LULC)changes is essential for effective watershed planning and management.This study quantified the net change,exchange,total change,and transfer rate of LULC in the Jinghe River Basin(JRB),China using LULC data from 2000 to 2020.Through trajectory analysis,knowledge maps,chord diagrams,and standard deviation ellipse method,we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of LULC changes.We further established an index system encompassing natural factors(digital elevation model(DEM),slope,aspect,and curvature),socio-economic factors(gross domestic product(GDP)and population),and accessibility factors(distance from railways,distance from highways,distance from water,and distance from residents)to investigate the driving mechanisms of LULC changes using factor detector and interaction detector in the geographical detector(Geodetector).The key findings indicate that from 2000 to 2020,the JRB experienced significant LULC changes,particularly for farmland,forest,and grassland.During the study period,LULC change trajectories were categorized into stable,early-stage,late-stage,repeated,and continuous change types.Besides the stable change type,the late-stage change type predominated the LULC change trajectories,comprising 83.31% of the total change area.The period 2010-2020 witnessed more active LULC changes compared to the period 2000-2010.The LULC changes exhibited a discrete spatial expansion trend during 2000-2020,predominantly extending from southeast to northwest of the JRB.Influential driving factors on LULC changes included slope,GDP,and distance from highways.The interaction detection results imply either bilinear or nonlinear enhancement for any two driving factors impacting the LULC changes from 2000 to 2020.This comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of LULC changes offers valuable insights for the planning and sustainable management of LULC in the JRB.

Land use and cover change and influencing factor analysis in the Shiyang River Basin,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is the most direct manifestation of the interaction between anthropological activities and the natural environment on Earth's surface,with significant impacts on the environment and social economy.Rapid economic development and climate change have resulted in significant changes in land use and cover.The Shiyang River Basin,located in the eastern part of the Hexi Corridor in China,has undergone significant climate change and LUCC over the past few decades.In this study,we used the random forest classification to obtain the land use and cover datasets of the Shiyang River Basin in 1991,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 based on Landsat images.We validated the land use and cover data in 2015 from the random forest classification results(this study),the high-resolution dataset of annual global land cover from 2000 to 2015(AGLC-2000-2015),the global 30 m land cover classification with a fine classification system(GLC_FCS30),and the first Landsat-derived annual China Land Cover Dataset(CLCD)against ground-truth classification results to evaluate the accuracy of the classification results in this study.Furthermore,we explored and compared the spatiotemporal patterns of LUCC in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Shiyang River Basin over the past 30 years,and employed the random forest importance ranking method to analyze the influencing factors of LUCC based on natural(evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and surface soil moisture)and anthropogenic(nighttime light,gross domestic product(GDP),and population)factors.The results indicated that the random forest classification results for land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin in 2015 outperformed the AGLC-2000-2015,GLC_FCS30,and CLCD datasets in both overall and partial validations.Moreover,the classification results in this study exhibited a high level of agreement with the ground truth features.From 1991 to 2020,the area of bare land exhibited a decreasing trend,with changes primarily occurring in the middle and lower reaches of the basin.The area of grassland initially decreased and then increased,with changes occurring mainly in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.In contrast,the area of cropland initially increased and then decreased,with changes occurring in the middle and lower reaches.The LUCC was influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors.Climatic factors and population contributed significantly to LUCC,and the importance values of evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and population were 22.12%,32.41%,21.89%,and 19.65%,respectively.Moreover,policy interventions also played an important role.Land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin exhibited fluctuating changes over the past 30 years,with the ecological environment improving in the last 10 years.This suggests that governance efforts in the study area have had some effects,and the government can continue to move in this direction in the future.The findings can provide crucial insights for related research and regional sustainable development in the Shiyang River Basin and other similar arid and semi-arid areas.

Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

Land Use Land Cover Analysis for Godavari Basin in Maharashtra Using Geographical Information System and Remote Sensing

The dynamic transformation of land use and land cover has emerged as a crucial aspect in the effective management of natural resources and the continual monitoring of environmental shifts. This study focused on the land use and land cover (LULC) changes within the catchment area of the Godavari River, assessing the repercussions of land and water resource exploitation. Utilizing LANDSAT satellite images from 2009, 2014, and 2019, this research employed supervised classification through the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) software’s SCP plugin. Maximum likelihood classification algorithm was used for the assessment of supervised land use classification. Seven distinct LULC classes—forest, irrigated cropland, agricultural land (fallow), barren land, shrub land, water, and urban land—are delineated for classification purposes. The study revealed substantial changes in the Godavari basin’s land use patterns over the ten-year period from 2009 to 2019. Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use/cover changes (2009-2019) were quantified using three Satellite/Landsat images, a supervised classification algorithm and the post classification change detection technique in GIS. The total study area of the Godavari basin in Maharashtra encompasses 5138175.48 hectares. Notably, the built-up area increased from 0.14% in 2009 to 1.94% in 2019. The proportion of irrigated cropland, which was 62.32% in 2009, declined to 41.52% in 2019. Shrub land witnessed a noteworthy increase from 0.05% to 2.05% over the last decade. The key findings underscored significant declines in barren land, agricultural land, and irrigated cropland, juxtaposed with an expansion in forest land, shrub land, and urban land. The classification methodology achieved an overall accuracy of 80%, with a Kappa Statistic of 71.9% for the satellite images. The overall classification accuracy along with the Kappa value for 2009, 2014 and 2019 supervised land use land cover classification was good enough to detect the changing scenarios of Godavari River basin under study. These findings provide valuable insights for discerning land utilization across various categories, facilitating the adoption of appropriate strategies for sustainable land use in the region.

Trends of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Savannah Ecological of the Protected Area Reserve Partielle de Dosso, Niger

Information on the dynamics of savannah is important to a country's plan to overcome the problems of uncontrolled development and environmental hazards. Taking the reserve partielle de Dosso, Niger as the case study area, this paper analyzed the long-term land use land cover change from 2002 to 2022. Satellite images were processed by using Google Earth Engine (GEE). Therefore, four major land cover classes were identified based on spectral characteristics of Land sat, namely, built-up, vegetation, cropland, bare land and water. The result revealed that barren and built-up areas increased at the expense of vegetation and water. From the four major land use land cover the large area is covered by vegetation which comprises about 192963.5 hectares followed by cropland and water consisting of 32506.43 and 1596.4 hectares respectively. The built-up area gained substantial area (most) during the study period. The reduction in some of the land cover/uses underlines the dangerous trend of the pressure poised by population growth and the changing functionality. Land cover change is influenced by a variety of societal factors operating on several spatial and temporal levels. The area estimates and spatial distributions of the LULC classes produced from the current study will assist local authorities, managers, and other stakeholders in decision-making and planning regarding forest land cover and uses.

Spatiotemporal detection of land use/land cover changes and land surface temperature using Landsat and MODIS data across the coastal Kanyakumari district, India

This study assesses the changes in land use/land cover(LULC) and land surface temperature(LST) to identify their impacts from 2000 to 2020 along the coast of Kanyakumari district, India using remote sensing techniques. Landsat images are used to estimate the LULC changes and the MODIS data for LST.The Maximum Likelihood Classification(MLC) method is used, and the LULC is classified into six categories: Agriculture Land, Barren Land, Salt Pan, Sandy Beach, Settlement, and Waterbody. Within the two decades of the present change detection study, upheave in the Settlement area of 49.89% is noticed, and the Agriculture Land is exploited by 20.09%. Salt Pan emits a high LST of 31.57°C, and the Waterbodies are noticed with a low LST of 28.9°C. However, the overall rate of LST decreased by 0.56°C during this period. This study will help policymakers make appropriate planning and management to overcome the impact of LULC and LST in the forthcoming years.

Uphill or downhill?Cropland use change and its drivers from the perspective of slope spectrum

The continuous decrease of low-slope cropland resources caused by construction land crowding poses huge threat to regional sustainable development and food security.Slope spectrum analysis of topographic and geomorphic features is considered as a digital terrain analysis method which reflects the macro-topographic features by using micro-topographic factors.However,pieces of studies have extended the concept of slope spectrum in the field of geoscience to construction land to explore its expansion law,while research on the slope trend of cropland from that perspective remains rare.To address the gap,in virtue of spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model,the cropland use change in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed and the driving factors were explored from the perspective of slope spectrum.Results showed that the slope spectrum curves of cropland area-frequency in the YRB showed a first upward then a downward trend.The change curve of the slope spectrum of cropland in each province(municipality)exhibited various distribution patterns.Quantitative analysis of morphological parameters of cropland slope spectrum revealed that the further down the YRB,the stronger the flattening characteristics,the more obvious the concentration.The province experienced the greatest downhill cropland climbing(CLC)was Shannxi,while province experienced the highest uphill CLC was Zhejiang.The most common cropland use change type in the YRB was horizontal expansion type.The factors affecting average cropland climbing index(ACCI)were quite stable in different periods,while population density(POP)changed from negative to positive during the study period.This research is of practical significance for the rational utilization of cropland at the watershed scale.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

Impacts of multi-scenario land use change on ecosystem services and ecological security pattern: A case study of the Yellow River Delta

The Yellow River Delta(YRD), a critical economic zone along China's eastern coast, also functions as a vital ecological reserve in the lower Yellow River. Amidst rapid industrialization and urbanization, the region has witnessed significant land use/cover changes(LUCC), impacting ecosystem services(ES) and ecological security patterns(ESP). Investigating LUCC's effects on ES and ESP in the YRD is crucial for ecological security and sustainable development. This study utilized the PLUS model to simulate 2030 land use scenarios, including natural development(NDS), economic development(EDS), and ecological protection scenarios(EPS). Subsequently, the InVEST model and circuit theory were applied to assess ES and ESP under varying LUCC scenarios from 2010 to 2030. Findings indicate:(1) Notable LUCC from 2010 to 2030, marked by decreasing cropland and increasing construction land and water bodies.(2) From 2010 to 2020, improvements were observed in carbon storage,water yield, soil retention, and habitat quality, whereas 2020–2030 saw increases in water yield and soil retention but declines in habitat quality and carbon storage. Among the scenarios, EPS showed superior performance in all four ES.(3) Between 2010 and 2030, ecological sources, corridors, and pinchpoints expanded, displaying significant spatial heterogeneity. The EPS scenario yielded the most substantial increases in ecological sources,corridors, and pinchpoints, totaling 582.89 km^(2), 645.03 km^(2),and 64.43 km^(2), respectively. This study highlights the importance of EPS, offering insightful scientific guidance for the YRD's sustainable development.