Land use and cover change and influencing factor analysis in the Shiyang River Basin,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is the most direct manifestation of the interaction between anthropological activities and the natural environment on Earth's surface,with significant impacts on the environment and social economy.Rapid economic development and climate change have resulted in significant changes in land use and cover.The Shiyang River Basin,located in the eastern part of the Hexi Corridor in China,has undergone significant climate change and LUCC over the past few decades.In this study,we used the random forest classification to obtain the land use and cover datasets of the Shiyang River Basin in 1991,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 based on Landsat images.We validated the land use and cover data in 2015 from the random forest classification results(this study),the high-resolution dataset of annual global land cover from 2000 to 2015(AGLC-2000-2015),the global 30 m land cover classification with a fine classification system(GLC_FCS30),and the first Landsat-derived annual China Land Cover Dataset(CLCD)against ground-truth classification results to evaluate the accuracy of the classification results in this study.Furthermore,we explored and compared the spatiotemporal patterns of LUCC in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Shiyang River Basin over the past 30 years,and employed the random forest importance ranking method to analyze the influencing factors of LUCC based on natural(evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and surface soil moisture)and anthropogenic(nighttime light,gross domestic product(GDP),and population)factors.The results indicated that the random forest classification results for land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin in 2015 outperformed the AGLC-2000-2015,GLC_FCS30,and CLCD datasets in both overall and partial validations.Moreover,the classification results in this study exhibited a high level of agreement with the ground truth features.From 1991 to 2020,the area of bare land exhibited a decreasing trend,with changes primarily occurring in the middle and lower reaches of the basin.The area of grassland initially decreased and then increased,with changes occurring mainly in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.In contrast,the area of cropland initially increased and then decreased,with changes occurring in the middle and lower reaches.The LUCC was influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors.Climatic factors and population contributed significantly to LUCC,and the importance values of evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and population were 22.12%,32.41%,21.89%,and 19.65%,respectively.Moreover,policy interventions also played an important role.Land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin exhibited fluctuating changes over the past 30 years,with the ecological environment improving in the last 10 years.This suggests that governance efforts in the study area have had some effects,and the government can continue to move in this direction in the future.The findings can provide crucial insights for related research and regional sustainable development in the Shiyang River Basin and other similar arid and semi-arid areas.

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Services of Zhejiang Coasts,China,Under Sustainable Development Goals

Ecosystem services(ESs)refer to the continuous provisioning of ecosystem goods and services that benefit human beings.Over recent decades,rapid urbanization has exerted significant pressure on coastal ecosystems,resulting in biodiversity and habitat loss,environmental pollution,and the depletion of natural resources.In response to these environmental challenges,the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)were proposed.Given the pressing need to address these issues,understanding the changes in ESs under the SDGs is crucial for formulating specific ecological strategies.In this study,we first analyzed land use and cover change in the Zhejiang coasts of China during 2000–2020.Then,we investigated the spatiotemporal configuration of ESs by integrating carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR),habitat quality(HQ)and water yield(WY)using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.The driving mechanisms of ESs,which varied by space and time,were also explored using the Geo-detector method.The results revealed that,over the past two decades:1)the Zhejiang coasts have experienced a significant increase of 2783.72 km^(2) in built-up land areas and a continuous decrease in farmland areas due to rapid urbanization;2)owing to higher precipitation,extensive vegetation cover,and reduced anthropogenic disturbances,forests emerge as a crucial land use type for maintaining ecosystem services such as HQ,CS,WY,and SR;3)ESs have generally declined across the entire Zhejiang coasts,with a significant decrease observed in the northern areas and an increase in the southern areas spatially;4)the expansion of built-up land areas emerged as the primary factor affecting ecosystem services,while the vegetation factor has been increasingly significant and is expected to become predominant in the near future.Our study provides insights of understanding of ecosystem service theory and emphasizing the importance of preserving biodiversity for long-term sustainable development,and valuable scientific references to support the ecological management decision-making for local governments.

Investigating the Long-Term Relationship between Aerosol Optical Thickness and Land Use/Cover Change in Guangxi Coastal Cities, China

Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) has an impact on AOD to a certain extent. It is of great significance for ecological environment and public health to pay attention to and explore the response mechanism of AOD to LUCC. Based on remote sensing satellite technology, using landsat8 and MODIS data, this paper analyzes the correlation between different land use types and AOD in Beibu Gulf coastal urban belt under the background of wide-scale region and long time series, and further discusses the difference value and contribution level of each LUCC to AOD. The results show that: 1) there is a positive correlation between PM concentration and cultivated land, urban land, water area and other types of land, and the correlation coefficient increases in turn, R is 0.812, 0.685, 0.627, 0.416, respectively, which indicates that the increase of cultivated land and urban land increases PM concentration to a certain extent;2) there is a significant negative correlation between PM concentration and forest land, R is -0.924, The results show that the decrease of woodland is an important factor for the increase of atmospheric particulate matter concentration in the study area from 2015 to 2019;3) through the contribution analysis method, the contribution of cultivated land to AOD is the largest, followed by urban land, and the water area is the smallest in 2015-2019, which indicates that the land use mode is closely related to AOD. It can be helpful to reasonably plan land use types and scientifically optimize land use structure. It can effectively reduce the concentration of air pollution particles.

Effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and temperature in the Songnen Plain,China

Understanding the effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on regional climate is critical for achieving land use system sustainability and global climate change mitigation. However, the quantitative analysis of the contribution of LUCC to the changes of climatic factors, such as precipitation & temperature(P&T), is lacking. In this study, we combined statistical methods and the gravity center model simulation to quantify the effects of long-term LUCC on P&T in the Songnen Plain(SNP) of Northeast China from 1980–2018. The results showed the spatiotemporal variability of LUCC. For example, paddy field had the largest increase(15 166.43 km2) in the SNP, followed by dry land, while wetland had the largest decrease(19 977.13 km;) due to the excessive agricultural utilization and development. Annual average precipitation decreased at a rate of –9.89 mm per decade, and the warming trends were statistically significant with an increasing rate of 0.256°C per decade in this region since 1980. The model simulation revealed that paddy field, forestland, and wetland had positive effects on precipitation, which caused their gravity centers to migrate towards the same direction accompanied by the center of precipitation gravity, while different responses were seen for building land, dry land and unused land. These results indicated that forestland had the largest influence on the increase of precipitation compared with the other land use types.The responses in promoting the temperature increase differed significantly, being the highest in building land, and the lowest in forestland. In general, the analysis of regional-scale LUCC showed a significant reduction of wetland, and the increases in building land and cropland contributed to a continuous drying and rapid warming in the SNP.

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Population Driving Force of Land Use Change in Liupan Mountains Region, Southern Ningxia, China

The Liupan Mountains is located in the southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China, which forms an important dividing line between landforms and bio-geographic regions. The populated part of the Liupan Mountains region has suffered tremendous ecological damages over time due to population pressure, excessive demand and inappropriate use of agricultural land resources. In this paper, datasets of land use between 1990 and 2000 were obtained from Landsat TM imagery, and then spatial models were used to characterize landscape conditions. Also, the relationship between the population density and land use/cover change (LUCC) was analyzed. Results indicate that cropland, forestland, and urban areas have increased by 44,186ha, 9001ha and 1550ha, respectively while the grassland area has appreciably decreased by 54,025ha in the study period. The decrease in grassland was most notable. Of the grassland lost, 49.4% was converted into cropland. The largest annual land conversion rate in the study area was less than 2%. These changes are attributed to industrial and agricultural development and population growth. To improve the eco-economic conditions in the study region, population control, urbanization and development of an ecological friendly agriculture were suggested.

LAND USE/COVER CHANGE AND DRIVING FORCES IN SOUTHERN LIAONING PROVINCE SINCE 1950S

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is a key aspect of global environment change, and in a sense indicates the influence of human activities on natural environment. Regional case study is the core of LUCC research. Taking the southern Liaoning Province, a coastal area facing the Bohai Sea and the Huanghai Sea, as an example, supported by ARCVIEW and ARC/INFO, this paper reconstructed LUCC patterns in three periods of 1954, 1976 and 2000, and analyzed their spatial-temporal changes from 1954 to 2000. On the base of these, it also studied the LUCC’s driving mechanism. The results show that the land transformation mainly occurs among cultivated land, forestland and urban and industrial land. Industrialization and urbanization in rural area are the major driving forces for cultivated land change, and the extension of the built-up area in cities is mainly the result of economic development and tertiary industry development, etc., which is at expense of cultivated land.

Effects of land use and cover change on surface wind speed in China

The surface wind speed(SWS)is affected by both large-scale circulation and land use and cover change(LUCC).In China,most studies have considered the effect of large-scale circulation rather than LUCC on SWS.In this study,we evaluated the effects of LUCC on the SWS decrease during 1979-2015 over China using the observation minus reanalysis(OMR)method.There were two key findings:(1)Observed wind speed declined significantly at a rate of 0.0112 m/(s·a),whereas ERA-Interim,which can only capture the inter-annual variation of observed data,indicated a gentle downward trend.The effects of LUCC on SWS were distinct and caused a decrease of 0.0124 m/(s·a)in SWS;(2)Due to variations in the characteristics of land use types across different regions,the influence of LUCC on SWS also varied.The observed wind speed showed a rapid decline over cultivated land in Northwest China,as well as a decrease in China’s northeastern and eastern plain regions due to the urbanization.However,in the Tibetan Plateau,the impact of LUCC on wind speed was only slight and can thus be ignored.

Land Use Change During 1960～2000 Period and itsEco-environmental Effects in the Middle and UpperReaches of the Yangtze River:a Case Study in YiliangCounty,Yunnan,China

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is a focus of the research of global environmental changes. The middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, which are the most ecologically fragile mountainous area in China as well as one of the areas in China with most notable LUCC, have been on the Chinese Government's list of priority areas for ecological restoration. This paper is to reveal the trend of LUCC and the ecological degradation arising from it, and to provide a basis for the future sustainable use of land resources in the region based on a detailed analysis of Yiliang County. Based on the county's land use/cover maps in 1960, 1980 and 2000 drawn with the aid of aerial photograph interpretation, field investigation and GIS based spatial-temporal data analysis, LUCC during 1960~2000 period and the ecological degradation arising from it were analyzed. Using the Markv model, the paper brings out a forecast of what the county's LUCC would be like if the county's current land use continues, as well as the reasons and countermeasures for restoring degraded ecosystems.

Spatial features of land use/land cover change in the United States

With the classifi cation data covering American land-use/land-cover (LUCC) with 30 m resolu tion from the project of National Land Cover Data (NLCD), we normalize d them and made their resolution changed into 1 km ×1 km, created the data of American land-use grade and analyzed the spatial distribution and featur es of American LUCC as well as the influence of population and altit ude on the land-use grade in light of methods of sampling analysis a nd correlation study. Based on the analysis, we concluded that forestr y and grassland, accounting for 71.24% of the whole country, has taken the main part of American land cover, and besides, construction and arable land has occupied 19.22% of the total land, the rest of land cover types, including water area, wetland and underdeveloped land, is 9. 54% of the country's total. The developing potential of American land resources is enormous with less destroyed and disturbed ecological environment. Although, in some sense, the population and altitude influence the sp atial variation of American land-use grade respectively, the influence of spatial variation of altitude and population density on that of la nd-use grade is not significanct.

Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

Land use/land cover change responses to ecological water conveyance in the lower reaches of Tarim River,China

The Tarim River is the longest inland river in China and is considered as an important river to protect the oasis economy and environment of the Tarim Basin.However,excessive exploitation and over-utilization of natural resources,particularly water resources,have triggered a series of ecological and environmental problems,such as the reduction in the volume of water in the main river,deterioration of water quality,drying up of downstream rivers,degradation of vegetation,and land desertification.In this study,the land use/land cover change(LUCC)responses to ecological water conveyance in the lower reaches of the Tarim River were investigated using ENVI(Environment for Visualizing Images)and GIS(Geographic Information System)data analysis software for the period of 1990-2018.Multi-temporal remote sensing images and ecological water conveyance data from 1990 to 2018 were used.The results indicate that LUCC covered an area of 2644.34 km^(2) during this period,accounting for 15.79%of the total study area.From 1990 to 2018,wetland,farmland,forestland,and artificial surfaces increased by 533.42 km^(2)(216.77%),446.68 km^(2)(123.66%),284.55 km^(2)(5.67%),and 57.51 km^(2)(217.96%),respectively,whereas areas covered by grassland and other land use/land cover types,such as Gobi,bare soil,and deserts,decreased by 103.34 km2(14.31%)and 1218.83 km2(11.75%),respectively.Vegetation area decreased first and then increased,with the order of 2010<2000<1990<2018.LUCC in the overflow and stagnant areas in the lower reaches of the Tarim River was mainly characterized by fragmentation,irregularity,and complexity.By analyzing the LUCC responses to 19 rounds of ecological water conveyance in the lower reaches of the Tarim River from 2000 to the end of 2018,we proposed guidelines for the rational development and utilization of water and soil resources and formulation of strategies for the sustainable development of the lower reaches of the Tarim River.This study provides scientific guidance for optimal scheduling of water resources in the region.

Dynamic Land Use /Cover Change and Analysis of Landscape Pattern in the Hilly and Gully Region of Loess Plateau: A Case Study of Pengyang County in Southern Ningxia

The quantitative evaluation on land use /cover change as well as its influence on landscape pattern under the background of returning grain plots to forestry is significant to the sustainable utilization of land resources and ecological environment reconstruction in the southern Ningxia.Based on multi-temporal remote sensing data from four periods of Landsat TM /ETM,and combination of ecological quantity analytical method with GIS,the change of land use /cover and landscape pattern in Pengyang County of Ningxia Province were analyzed.The conclusions showed that the amount of each land use type was changed with different degrees,the area of forest /grass land increased,while farmland and unused land decreased.The change of landscape pattern was characterized as that the degree of landscape fragmentation,mixed distribution of patches,diversity index and evenness index increased gradually and then decreased,the connectivity between patches decreased gradually and then increased,and landscape shape presented irregular.

Rehabilitation and Sustainable Use Pattern of Rocky-desertified Land in Southwest China’s Poverty-stricken Karst Mountainous Areas——A Case Study in Benggu Township, Xichou County, Yunnan, China

The rocky desert in a karst area directly causes the lack of soil, water and forest, hence leading to the poverty there. In 1990, the villagers from the Muzhe Village in Benggu Township, Xichou County, Yunnan declared a war against rocky desert in an attempt to ask the fields for more yields. They invented a distinctive land rehabilitation and sustainable use pattern called “transforming heavenand earth” that had been practiced in Southwest China’s karst areas. The key mechanism of the pattern was to develop terraced fields with well conserved soil, water and fertility by exploding rocks in the fields, building stone walls, gathering more soil, and improving soil quality and productivity for the fields in combination with building of irrigation facilities and roads, as well as with forestation and agriculture structure adjustment. The purpose of the pattern was to alleviate poverty in the karst areas by improving soil productivity and promoting agriculturaldevelopment. A typical area was studied with the help of Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) and the pattern was carried out there for fifteen years, have produced excellent ecological benefits and good economic benefits. Its application in the area approved that it was a sustainable land use pattern for rocky desert areas.

A Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model for Analyzing Impacts of Land Cover Change on Flow Regimes

The Miyun Reservoir is the most important water source for Beijing Municipality, the capital of China with a population of more than 12 million. In recent decades, the inflow to the reservoir has shown a decreasing trend, which has seriously threatened water use in Beijing. In order to analyze the influents of land use and cover change (LUCC) upon inflow to Miyun Reservoir, terrain and land use information from remote sensing were utilized with a revised evapotranspiration estimation formula; a water loss model under conditions of human impacts was introduced; and a distributed monthly water balance model was established and applied to the Chaobai River Basin controlled by the Miyun Reservoir. The model simulation suggested that not only the impact of land cover change on evapotranspiration, but also the extra water loss caused by human activities, such as the water and soil conservation development projects should be considered. Although these development projects were of great benefit to human and ecological protection, they could reallocate water resources in time and space, and in a sense thereby influence the stream flow.

Road Impacts on Spatial Patterns of Land Use and Landscape Fragmentation in Three Parallel Rivers Region,Yunnan Province,China

The structure and function of network is a central issue in landscape ecology.Road networks with hierarchical structure are crucial for understanding landscape dynamics.In this study,we compared the distribution of national road,provincial road,county road and rural road in the Three Parallel Rivers Region(TPRR)in Yunnan Province of China,and estimated the effect of roads(and other factors)on the spatial patterns of land use and land cover with logistic regression.In addition,we analyzed the land use and land cover change(LUCC)and landscape fragmentation in 1989–2005 along a buffer zone of the primary traffic corridor,national road G214.The results showed that,county and rural roads had much higher percentage of length extending into more natural habitats at higher elevation and steeper slope,compared with the higher level roads in this region.While the distributions of natural land cover types were dominated by environmental factors,human land use types i.e.,building land and farmland types were significantly related with roads,linking more closely with lower level roads.The LUCC dynamics(1989–2005)of the G214 buffer zone showed a general trend of land transformation from conifer forests and valley arid shrubs to building land and farmland,and from ice and snow to alpine shrubs and forests.With the length of G214 unchanged during the time,the overall landscape pattern changed little in the buffer zone,but habitat fragmentation and area decrease had occurred for the natural vegetation types,in contrast to patch mergence and expansion of human land use types,and landscape fragmentation was intensified above 2500 m a.s.l.but declined below the elevation.The results indicated the dynamics of landscape composition and patch type level distribution in spite of the stability of the overall landscape pattern,and implied the potential role of roads,especially the low level roads on landscape changes.

Predicting and assessing changes in NPP based on multi-scenario land use and cover simulations on the Loess Plateau

Land use/cover change(LUCC)is a major factor affecting net primary production(NPP).According to the LUCC of the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2015,the LUCC patterns in 2025 in three scenarios were predicted by using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model.Furthermore,taking the average NPP of various land use/cover types in 16 years as the reference scale,the changes in NPP in multi-scenario simulations are predicted and analyzed,and the impact of different land use/cover transfers on NPP is quantified.The results are as follows:(1)The land use/cover changes greatly in the baseline and fast development scenarios,and changes relatively little in the ecological protection scenarios.(2)The changes in NPP in different scenarios reflected the significant difference in the ecological protection effect.All the three scenarios promote an NPP increase,but the ecological protection scenario can promote NPP increases the most.(3)The changes in NPP caused by LUCC in the three scenarios reflected the significant difference in the various land use/cover types protection effect.Analyzing and predicting NPP changes in multi-scenario LUCC simulations in the future can provide a theoretical basis for decision makers to judge the future changes in ecological environments and ecological protection effects against different policy backgrounds.

Modeling spatial and temporal change of soil erosion based on multi-temporal remotely sensed data

In order to monitor the pattern, distribution, and trend of land use/cover change （LUCC） and its impacts on soil erosion, it is highly appropriate to adopt Remote Sensing （RS） data and Geographic Information System （GIS） to analyze, assess, simulate, and predict the spatial and temporal evolution dynamics. In this paper, multi-temporal Landsat TM/ETM＋ re- motely sensed data are used to generate land cover maps by image classification, and the Cellular Automata Markov （CA_Markov） model is employed to simulate the evolution and trend of landscape pattern change. Furthermore, the Re- vised Universal Soil Loss Equation （RUSLE） is used to evaluate the situation of soil erosion in the case study mining area. The trend of soil erosion is analyzed according to total/average amount of soil erosion, and the rainfall （R）, cover man- agement （C）, and support practice （P） factors in RUSLE relevant to soil erosion are determined. The change trends of soil erosion and the relationship between land cover types and soil erosion amount are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the CA_Markov model is suitable to simulate and predict LUCC trends with good efficiency and accuracy, and RUSLE can calculate the total soil erosion effectively. In the study area, there was minimal erosion grade and this is expected to con- tinue to decline in the next few years, according to our prediction results.

基于GIS的重庆市主城区的LUCC时空特征研究

基于1988、2000、2010年的TM影像数据,结合了遥感与GIS技术揭示重庆市主城区1988—2010年土地利用与覆被变化(LUCC)特征和土地利用的状况,研究1988—2010年城市重心迁移,并采用马尔可夫链模型分析了22年间的各类土地转化情况,对重庆主城区之后40年的发展趋势进行预测。结果表明,重庆市主城区1988—2010年各类土地面积均有变化,城建区面积上升593.95 km^(2)、林草地面积提升102.8 km^(2)、水域减少166.85 km^(2)、耕地减少427.97 km^(2)、未利用地减少101.93 km^(2)。22年间政府大力开发城建区,同时也注重水土保持和植树造林。马尔科夫预测表明重庆市主城区将在相当长一段时间内保持此变化趋势。

LUCC of large opencast mines in loess area during ecologi-cal restoration: a case study of Pingshuo Mine

Taking Pingshuo mine as an example, this paper studies land use, cover change in the process of reclaiming in mine area in the methods of survey in fixed places, indoor analysis, investigation and verification of history data. The results show that as a special land-use form, LUCC is drastic. The change of LUCC in the process that the landform is being restructured is reflected by the change of altitude, slope exposure, slope gradient, slope patterns and specific surface area; the change of LUCC in the process that the soil is being restructured is reflected by the change of soil physical character, chemical character, biological character and erosion character; and the change of LUCC in the process that vegetation is being restructured is reflected by the increase of 91 artificial vegetations and the intrusive growth of 95 wild species.

A Multi-agent Model to Simulate Regional Land Use Change with an Application to the Poyang Lake Area of China

In many regions both urban expansion and rural development take place simultaneously, and for the purpose of understanding the dynamic process of land use/cover change （LUCC） in such large areas, this study develops a multi-agent based land use model. Taking the Poyang Lake area of China as a typical case, this study applies the mechanism of diffusion-limited aggregation to simulate the behavior of urban agents, while rural land use is illustrated with a bottom-up based model consisting of agent and environment layers. In the agent layer, each household agent makes its own decisions on land use, and at each time interval a government agent takes control of land use by implementing policies. According to incomes and the rate of migrant workers, household agents are divided into six categories, among which different decision rules are followed. For complex LUCC in the Poyang Lake area of China from 1985 to 2005, the artificial society model developed in this study yields results highly consistent with observations. Importantly, it is shown that governmental policies can impose significant effects on the decisions of individual household agents on land use and the multi-agent-based land use model developed in this study provides a robust means for assessing the effectiveness of governmental policies.