Forecast of the Scale of Urban Construction Land in Chongqing Municipality during the Period 2010-2014

With the rapid development of China's modern cities,the scale of urban construction land has experienced dramatic changes.The forecast of urban construction land is the important content of urban construction development,and guarantee for healthy,rapid and intensive development of cities,therefore,we must reasonably determine the scale of urban construction land.Based on the status quo of construction land in Chongqing Municipality during the period 2000-2009,this article selects GM(1,1) model,linear model and non-linear model,to forecast the scale of construction land and each type of land subordinate to it in Chongqing Municipality during the period 2010-2014,respectively.The results show that the construction land in Chongqing Municipality will increase substantially during the period 2010-2014,and the area of each type of land subordinate to construction land will also increase to varying degrees,therefore the land contradictions will become more prominent.

Urban and rural transport of semivolatile organic compounds at regional scale: A multimedia model approach

Urban areas are generally regarded as major sources of some semivolatile organic compounds and other persistent organic pollutants（POPs） to the surrounding regions. Huge differences in contaminant emissions between urban and rural areas directly affect their fate in environmental media. Little is known about POPs behavior between urban and rural areas at a regional scale. A spatially resolved Berkeley-Trent-Urban-Rural Fate Model（BETR-UR） was designed by coupling land cover information to simulate the transport of POPs between urban and rural areas, and the Bohai Rim was used as a case study to estimate Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon（PAH） fate. The processes of contaminant fate including emission, inter-compartmental transfer, advection and degradation in urban and rural areas were simulated in the model. Simulated PAH concentrations in environmental media of urban and rural areas were very close to measured values. The model accuracy was highly improved, with the average absolute relative error for PAH concentrations reduced from 37% to 3% compared with unimproved model results. PAH concentrations in urban soil and air were considerably higher than those in rural areas. Sensitivity analysis showed temperature was the most influential parameter for Phen rather than for Bap, whose fate was more influenced by emission rate, compartment dimension, transport velocity and chemical persistence. Uncertainty analysis indicated modeled results in urban media had higher uncertainty than those in rural areas due to larger variations of emissions in urban areas. The differences in urban and rural areas provided us with valuable guidance on policy setting for urban–rural POP control.