Impacts of land use/cover change on water balance by using the SWAT model in a typical loess hilly watershed of China

Land use/cover change(LUCC)plays a key role in altering surface hydrology and water balance,finally affect-ing the security and availability of water resources.However,mechanisms underlying LUCC determination of water-balance processes at the basin scale remain unclear.In this study,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model and partial least squares regression were used to detect the effects of LUCC on hydrology and water components in the Zuli River Basin(ZRB),a typical watershed of the Yellow River Basin.In general,three recommended coefficients(R^(2)and E ns greater than 0.5,and P bias less than 20%)indicated that the output results of the SWAT model were reliable and that the model was effective for the ZRB.Then,several key findings were obtained.First,LUCC in the ZRB was characterized by a significant increase in forest(21.61%)and settlement(23.52%)and a slight reduction in cropland(-1.35%),resulting in a 4.93%increase in evapotranspiration and a clear decline in surface runoffand water yield by 15.68%and 2.95%at the whole basin scale,respectively.Second,at the sub-basin scale,surface runoffand water yield increased by 14.26%-36.15%and 5.13%-15.55%,respectively,mainly due to settlement increases.Last,partial least squares regression indicated that urbanization was the most significant contributor to runoffchange,and evapotranspiration change was mainly driven by forest expansion.These conclusions are significant for understanding the relationship between LUCC and water balance,which can provide meaningful information for managing water resources and the long-term sustainability of such watersheds.

Investigating the Long-Term Relationship between Aerosol Optical Thickness and Land Use/Cover Change in Guangxi Coastal Cities, China

Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) has an impact on AOD to a certain extent. It is of great significance for ecological environment and public health to pay attention to and explore the response mechanism of AOD to LUCC. Based on remote sensing satellite technology, using landsat8 and MODIS data, this paper analyzes the correlation between different land use types and AOD in Beibu Gulf coastal urban belt under the background of wide-scale region and long time series, and further discusses the difference value and contribution level of each LUCC to AOD. The results show that: 1) there is a positive correlation between PM concentration and cultivated land, urban land, water area and other types of land, and the correlation coefficient increases in turn, R is 0.812, 0.685, 0.627, 0.416, respectively, which indicates that the increase of cultivated land and urban land increases PM concentration to a certain extent;2) there is a significant negative correlation between PM concentration and forest land, R is -0.924, The results show that the decrease of woodland is an important factor for the increase of atmospheric particulate matter concentration in the study area from 2015 to 2019;3) through the contribution analysis method, the contribution of cultivated land to AOD is the largest, followed by urban land, and the water area is the smallest in 2015-2019, which indicates that the land use mode is closely related to AOD. It can be helpful to reasonably plan land use types and scientifically optimize land use structure. It can effectively reduce the concentration of air pollution particles.

LAND USE/COVER CHANGE AND DRIVING FORCES IN SOUTHERN LIAONING PROVINCE SINCE 1950S

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is a key aspect of global environment change, and in a sense indicates the influence of human activities on natural environment. Regional case study is the core of LUCC research. Taking the southern Liaoning Province, a coastal area facing the Bohai Sea and the Huanghai Sea, as an example, supported by ARCVIEW and ARC/INFO, this paper reconstructed LUCC patterns in three periods of 1954, 1976 and 2000, and analyzed their spatial-temporal changes from 1954 to 2000. On the base of these, it also studied the LUCC’s driving mechanism. The results show that the land transformation mainly occurs among cultivated land, forestland and urban and industrial land. Industrialization and urbanization in rural area are the major driving forces for cultivated land change, and the extension of the built-up area in cities is mainly the result of economic development and tertiary industry development, etc., which is at expense of cultivated land.

Effects of climate change and land use/cover change on the volume of the Qinghai Lake in China

Qinghai Lake is the largest saline lake in China.The change in the lake volume is an indicator of the variation in water resources and their response to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP)in China.The present study quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change and land use/cover change(LUCC)on the lake volume of the Qinghai Lake in China from 1958 to 2018,which is crucial for water resources management in the Qinghai Lake Basin.To explore the effects of climate change and LUCC on the Qinghai Lake volume,we analyzed the lake level observation data and multi-period land use/land cover(LULC)data by using an improved lake volume estimation method and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.Our results showed that the lake level decreased at the rate of 0.08 m/a from 1958 to 2004 and increased at the rate of 0.16 m/a from 2004 to 2018.The lake volume decreased by 105.40×10^(8) m^(3) from 1958 to 2004,with the rate of 2.24×10^(8) m^(3)/a,whereas it increased by 74.02×10^(8) m^(3) from 2004 to 2018,with the rate of 4.66×10^(8) m^(3)/a.Further,the climate of the Qinghai Lake Basin changed from warm-dry to warm-humid.From 1958 to 2018,the increase in precipitation and the decrease in evaporation controlled the change of the lake volume,which were the main climatic factors affecting the lake volume change.From 1977 to 2018,the measured water yield showed an"increase-decrease-increase"fluctuation in the Qinghai Lake Basin.The effects of climate change and LUCC on the measured water yield were obviously different.From 1977 to 2018,the contribution rate of LUCC was -0.76% and that of climate change was 100.76%;the corresponding rates were 8.57% and 91.43% from 1977 to 2004,respectively,and -4.25% and 104.25% from 2004 to 2018,respectively.Quantitative analysis of the effects and contribution rates of climate change and LUCC on the Qinghai Lake volume revealed the scientific significance of climate change and LUCC,as well as their individual and combined effects in the Qinghai Lake Basin and on the QTP.This study can contribute to the water resources management and regional sustainable development of the Qinghai Lake Basin.

Scenario simulation of water retention services under land use/cover and climate changes: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

Comprehensive assessments of ecosystem services in environments under the influences of human activities and climate change are critical for sustainable regional ecosystem management. Therefore,integrated interdisciplinary modelling has become a major focus of ecosystem service assessment. In this study, we established a model that integrates land use/cover change(LUCC), climate change, and water retention services to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of water retention services in the Loess Plateau of China in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050). An improved Markov-Cellular Automata(Markov-CA) model was used to simulate land use/land cover patterns, and ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to simulate and assess water retention services from 2000 to 2050 under six combined scenarios, including three land use/land cover scenarios(historical scenario(HS), ecological protection scenario(EPS), and urban expansion scenario(UES)) and two climate change scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP is the representative concentration pathway). LUCCs in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050) are dominated by transformations among agricultural land, urban land and grassland. Urban land under UES increased significantly by 0.63×10^(3) km^(2)/a, which was higher than the increase of urban land under HS and EPS. In the Loess Plateau, water yield decreased by 17.20×10^(6) mm and water retention increased by 0.09×10^(6) mm in the historical period(2000–2015),especially in the Interior drainage zone and its surrounding areas. In the future(2020–2050), the pixel means of water yield is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(96.63 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(95.46mm), and the pixel means of water retention is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(1.95 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(1.38 mm). RCP4.5-EPS shows the highest total water retention capacity on the plateau scale among the six combined scenarios, with the value of 1.27×10^(6) mm. Ecological restoration projects in the Loess Plateau have enhanced soil and water retention. However, more attention needs to be paid not only to the simultaneous increase in water retention services and evapotranspiration but also to the type and layout of restored vegetation. Furthermore, urbanization needs to be controlled to prevent uncontrollable LUCCs and climate change. Our findings provide reference data for the regional water and land resources management and the sustainable development of socio-ecological systems in the Loess Plateau under LUCC and climate change scenarios.

Response of ecosystem service value to land use/cover change in the northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

Land use/cover change(LUCC)is becoming more and more frequent and extensive as a result of human activities,and is expected to have a major impact on human welfare by altering ecosystem service value(ESV).In this study,we utilized remote sensing images and statistical data to explore the spatial-temporal changes of land use/cover types and ESV in the northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China from 1975 to 2018.During the study period,LUCC in the study region varied significantly.Except grassland and unused land,all the other land use/cover types(cultivated land,forestland,waterbody,and construction land)increased in areas.From 1975 to 2018,the spatial-temporal variations in ESV were also pronounced.The total ESV decreased by 4.00×10^(8) CNY,which was primarily due to the reductions in the areas of grassland and unused land.Waterbody had a much higher ESV than the other land use/cover types.Ultimately,understanding the impact of LUCC on ESV and the interactions among ESV of different land use/cover types will help improve existing land use policies and provide scientific basis for developing new conservation strategies for ecologically fragile areas.

The spatial-temporal changes of the land use/cover in the Dongting Lake area during the last decade

The research on the land use/cover change is one of the frontiers and the hot spots in the global change research. Based on the Chinese resource and environment spatial-temporal database, and using the Landsat TM and ETM data of 1990 and 2000 respectively, we analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use/cover changes in the Dongting Lake area during the last decade. The result shows that during the last ten years there were three land-use types that had changed remarkably. The cultivated land decreased by 0.57% of the total cultivated land. The built-up land and water area expanded, with an increase of 8.97% and 0.43% respectively. The conversion between land use types mostly happened among these three land-use types, especially frequently between cultivated land and water area. The land-use change speed of land-use type is different. Three cities experienced the greatest degree of land-use change among all the administrative districts, which means that the land use in these cities changed much quickly. The following changed area was the west and south of the Dongting Lake area. The slowest changed area is the north and east area.

Study of the intensity and driving factors of land use/cover change in the Yarlung Zangbo River, Nyang Qu River, and Lhasa River region, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China

Land use/land cover(LULC) is an important part of exploring the interaction between natural environment and human activities and achieving regional sustainable development. Based on the data of LULC types(cropland, forest land, grassland, built-up land, and unused land) from 1990 to 2015, we analysed the intensity and driving factors of land use/cover change(LUCC) in the Yarlung Zangbo River,Nyang Qu River, and Lhasa River(YNL) region, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China, using intensity analysis method, cross-linking table method, and spatial econometric model. The results showed that LUCC in the YNL region was nonstationary from 1990 to 2015, showing a change pattern with "fast-slow-fast" and "U-shaped". Built-up land showed a steady increase pattern, while cropland showed a steady decrease pattern. The gain of built-up land mainly came from the loss of cropland. The transition pattern of LUCC in the YNL region was relatively single and stable during 1990–2015. The transition pattern from cropland and forest land to built-up land was a systematic change process of tendency and the transition pattern from grassland and unused land to cropland was a systematic change process of avoidance. The transition process of LUCC was the result of the combined effect of natural environment and social economic development in the YNL region. This study reveals the impact of ecological environment problems caused by human activities on the land resource system and provides scientific support for the study of ecological environment change and sustainable development of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Impact of land use/cover changes on carbon storage in a river valley in arid areas of Northwest China

Soil carbon pools could become a CO_2 source or sink, depending on the directions of land use/cover changes. A slight change of soil carbon will inevitably affect the atmospheric CO_2 concentration and consequently the climate. Based on the data from 127 soil sample sites, 48 vegetation survey plots, and Landsat TM images, we analyzed the land use/cover changes, estimated soil organic carbon（SOC） storage and vegetation carbon storage of grassland, and discussed the impact of grassland changes on carbon storage during 2000 to 2013 in the Ili River Valley of Northwest China. The results indicate that the areal extents of forestland, shrubland, moderate-coverage grassland（MCG）, and the waterbody（including glaciers） decreased while the areal extents of high-coverage grassland（HCG）,low-coverage grassland（LCG）, residential and industrial land, and cultivated land increased. The grassland SOC density in 0–100 cm depth varied with the coverage in a descending order of HCG〉MCG〉LCG.The regional grassland SOC storage in the depth of 0–100 cm in 2013 increased by 0.25×1011 kg compared with that in 2000. The regional vegetation carbon storage（S_（rvc）） of grassland was 5.27×10~9 kg in2013 and decreased by 15.7% compared to that in 2000. The vegetation carbon reserves of the under-ground parts of vegetation（S_（ruvb）） in 2013 was 0.68×10~9 kg and increased by approximately 19.01%compared to that in 2000. This research can improve our understanding about the impact of land use/cover changes on the carbon storage in arid areas of Northwest China.

Effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and temperature in the Songnen Plain,China

Understanding the effects of land use/cover change(LUCC) on regional climate is critical for achieving land use system sustainability and global climate change mitigation. However, the quantitative analysis of the contribution of LUCC to the changes of climatic factors, such as precipitation & temperature(P&T), is lacking. In this study, we combined statistical methods and the gravity center model simulation to quantify the effects of long-term LUCC on P&T in the Songnen Plain(SNP) of Northeast China from 1980–2018. The results showed the spatiotemporal variability of LUCC. For example, paddy field had the largest increase(15 166.43 km2) in the SNP, followed by dry land, while wetland had the largest decrease(19 977.13 km;) due to the excessive agricultural utilization and development. Annual average precipitation decreased at a rate of –9.89 mm per decade, and the warming trends were statistically significant with an increasing rate of 0.256°C per decade in this region since 1980. The model simulation revealed that paddy field, forestland, and wetland had positive effects on precipitation, which caused their gravity centers to migrate towards the same direction accompanied by the center of precipitation gravity, while different responses were seen for building land, dry land and unused land. These results indicated that forestland had the largest influence on the increase of precipitation compared with the other land use types.The responses in promoting the temperature increase differed significantly, being the highest in building land, and the lowest in forestland. In general, the analysis of regional-scale LUCC showed a significant reduction of wetland, and the increases in building land and cropland contributed to a continuous drying and rapid warming in the SNP.

Assessment of ecosystem services value in response to prevailing and future land use/cover changes in Lahore,Pakistan

Land use/cover changes(LUCCs)significantly affect ecosystem services(ESs)and their corresponding monetary value.ESs can be evaluated to analyze the ecological and environmental changes caused by LUCCs.This research aims to estimate variations in the ecosystem services value(ESV)due to LUCCs in Lahore of Pakistan,and to offer information and recommendations to policy-makers concerned with the economic improvement of metropolis areas.We first investigated the historical LUCCs from 1990 to 2019,and then simulated the future land use/cover in 2030 and 2050 based on the CA-Markov model under three scenarios,including business-as-usual(BAU),rapid economic growth(REG),and coordinated environmental sustainability(CES).Subsequently,we evaluated the ESV from 1990 to 2050 and evaluated the historical and potential future ESV changes induced by LUCCs during 1990–2019 and 2019–2050,respectively.The results showed that,land use/cover exhibited an increase in built-up land and decreases in vegetation,water body,and unused land both in the past and future.The net ESV decreased from 58.26 million USD in 1990 to 50.31 million USD in 2019.In 2050,the decrease in ESV is most rapid under the REG scenario(decrease ESV of 7.13 million USD and decrease percentage of 14.18%),followed by the BAU(decrease ESV of 5.61 million USD and decrease percentage of 11.15%)and CES(decrease ESV of 5.18 million USD and decrease percentage of 10.30%)scenarios.For each ecosystem service type,the ESV of waste treatment decreased by 18.37%from 1990 to 2019,followed by soil formation and conservation(17.52%),biodiversity and maintenance(13.23%),climate regulation(11.80%),food production(11.69%),hydrological regulation(11.11%),and aesthetic value(3.07%).These outcomes indicate that continuous land use/cover planning should focus on regenerating aquatic areas and vegetation restoration.

Urban Heat Island and Land Use/Cover Dynamics Evaluation in Enugu Urban, Nigeria

This study specifically estimated the effect of land use/cover change (LULC) processes on land surface temperature (LST) in Enugu urban and its suburbs. With Landsat images and supervised classification technique, four LULC classes comprising built-up areas, vegetation, rock outcrop, bare ground/farmland areas were delineated. The LST was extracted from the thermal bands of the images. The rate of change in land cover classes between 2009 and 2018 showed that from 2009 to 2013, built-up areas increased from 31.65% to about 47.5%, while vegetation cover decreased from 18.43% to 11.23%. Also, the periods witnessed about 8.69 km2 of vegetation being converted to other land surfaces. The trend in the LST in Enugu urban showed the highest mean temperatures of 34.5°C in 2018 and 32.26°C in 2015. However, in 2013 there was a slight decrease in mean LST to 31.65°C which further decreased to 31.26°C in 2009. This change in temperature suggests that urbanisation could have significant effect on the micro-climate of Enugu city. Result also revealed weak relationships between LULC classes and the LST throughout the years. The results of the surface heat intensity for the urban and rural areas showed general increase over the years and this suggests that rural areas are also experiencing high temperature which could be due to the loss of vegetation, increase in artificial surfaces and urban encroachment. Findings from this study could be useful for effective urban land-use planning, policy development and management in Nigeria, and elsewhere.

Land Use/Cover and Productivity in the Compact Agricultural Areas of Mexico

This paper presents a method to associate land use/cover with productivity in 16 Agrotech Observatories (AOTs) in Mexico. Compact agricultural areas in Mexico have been identified, which are monitored as to their behavior concerning production and rural productivity in a network of AOTs, which is a compact agricultural area representative of agro-ecological, technological and social conditions in the country. To optimize production and agricultural productivity in compact areas, a multidisciplinary and holistic approach with four lines of activity (agro-ecological, technological, economic, and social), and ten actions are used. The objective of this work was to obtain the land use/cover and productivity of sixteen compact agricultural areas (AOTs) in the Mexican Republic, using panchromatic and multispectral SPOT 5 imagery, in order to provide information to the agricultural sector of the country, and to support decision making contributing to the optimization of production in areas with high actual and potential productivity. As an example, in this paper the land use/cover and productivity “AOT 20 Hidalgo” were described. Currently, it is important to have updated and accurate information to support actions and programs of federal, state and local government for farmers, particularly in compact areas with high agricultural production potential.

RESEARCH ACTIVITIES ON LAND USE/COVER CHANGE IN THE PAST TEN YEARS IN CHINA USING SPACE TECHNOLOGY

Land use/cover change, which in China is characterized by urbanization resulting in a decrease in arable land in the east along with a large area of grassland being cultivated in the west, has been accelerated by rapid economic development in the last years. All of the above changes will affect sustainable development in the next century. The Chinese Academy of Sciences is conducting a study of land use/cover change over the last ten years based on the integration of remote sensing and GIS technology to establish a multitemporal database covering all of China. Fundamental data for land use/cover for the year 1996 has already been developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In order to reconstruct fundamental land use/cover data for the year 1986, a central data processing and analyzing system and a regional data acquisition, processing and analyzing system have been established and are joined together as a network. After the 1986 database is established, the comparative research on the reduction in arable land, urbanization, desertification, changes in forest and grassland, and lake and wetland land use/cover change will be carried out. In addition, a transect for a key regional comparative study was selected along the Changjiang (Yangtze) River. The driving forces of these changes also will be extracted. The result of this study will be not only make a contribution to global land use/cover change research, but will also support decision making for sustainable national development.

A New Fusion Technique of Remote Sensing Images for Land Use/Cover

In China, accelerating industrialization and urbanization followinghigh-speed economic development and population increases have greatly impacted land use/coverchanges, making it imperative to obtain accurate and up to date iufbimation on changes soas toevaluate their environmental effects. The major purpose of this study was to develop a new method tofuse lower spatial resolution multispectral satellite images with higher spatial resolutionpanchromatic ones to assist in land use/cover mapping.An algorithm of a new fusion method known asedge enhancement intensity modulation (EEIM) was proposed to merge two optical image data sets ofdifferent spectral ranges. The results showed that the EEIM image was quite similar in color tolower resolution multispectral images, and the fused product was better able to preserve spectralinformation. Thus, compared to conventional approaches, the spectral distortion of the fused imageswas markedly reduced. Therefore, the EEIM fusion method could be utilized to fuse remote sensingdata from the same or different sensors, including TM images and SPOT5 panchromatic images,providing high quality land use/cover images.

Land Use/Cover Changes and Environmental Consequences in Songnen Plain,Northeast China

The Songnen Plain in Northeast China,one of the key national bases of agricultural production,went through remarkable land use/cover changes in recent years.This study aimed to explore the long-term land use/cover changes and the effects of these changes on the environment.The Landsat-based analysis showed that,during 1986-2000,cropland,built-up land and barren land had increased,among which cropland had the largest increase of 9,198km2 with an increase rate of 7.5%.Woodland,grassland,water body and swampland had decreased correspondingly,among which grassland had the most dramatic decrease of 6,127km2 with a decrease rate of 25.6%.The transition matrix results revealed that grassland,woodland and swampland were the three main land use types converted to cropland.Climate warming created the potential environment for the conversion of grassland and swampland into cropland.Land resources policy made by central and provincial governments of China affected the pattern and intensity of land use.Land use/cover changes accompanied by climatic variation brought out a series of environmental consequences,such as sand desertification of land,land salinization and alkalinization,grassland degradation,and more frequent floods.Under this circumstance,optimized land use structure and restoration measures are needed.

Soil Organic Carbon Stock as Affected by Land Use/Cover Changes in the Humid Region of Northern Iran

【Title】【Author】This study was conducted to determine the changes in the soil carbon stocks as influenced by land use in a humid zone of Deylaman district （10,876 ha）, a mountainous region of northern Iran. For this, land use maps were produced from TM and ETM＋ images for 1985, 2000 and 2010 years; and this was supplemented by field measurement of soil carbon in 2010. The results showed that the mean soil organic carbon （SOC） density was 6.7±1.8 kg C m-2, 5.2±3.4 kg C m-2 and 3.2±1.8 kg C m-2 for 0-20 cm soil layer and 4.8±1.9 kg C m-2, 3.1±2 kg C m-2 and 2.7±1.8 kg C m-2 for 20-40 cm soil layer in forest, rangeland and cultivated land, respectively. During the past 25 years, 14.4% of the forest area had been converted to rangeland; and 28.4% of rangelands had been converted to cultivated land. According to the historical land use changes in the study area, the highest loss of SOC stocks resulted from the conversion of the forest to rangeland （0.45×104 Mg C in 0-40 cm depth layer）; and the conversion of rangeland to cultivated land （0.37×104 Mg C in 0-40 cm）, which typically led to the loss of soil carbon in the area studied. The knowledge on the historical land use changes and its influence on overall SOC stocks could be helpful for making management decision for farmers and policy managers in the future, for enhancing the potential of C sequestration in northern Iran.

Study on Land Use/Cover Changes and the Driving Forces in Xuzhou City

Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat 5,landscape indexes were used to analyze the land use/cover changes of Xuzhou City during 1994 and 2005,in order to discover the inside driving system.Fourteen social driving forces were chosen according to the PCA theory,and the social driving forces of land use/cover change were analyzed with the help of SPSS software.The result indicated that population,economy,adjustment of agriculture structure were main impact factors of land use/cover changes.

Land Use/Cover Change and Its Policy Implications in Typical Agriculture-forest Ecotone of Central Jilin Province,China

During the 21st century,policies toward agriculture,forestry,and urbanization have emerged to ensure food security,ecological restoration,and human well-being by managing land in Northeast China.However,the integrated effects and relationships of various policies are still not well understood.This study observed the land use land cover changes in Central Jilin from 2000 to 2019 and,by considering policy involvement,aimed to understand the effects and trade-offs of policies.Results showed that the cropland,including dryland and rice paddy,and the forest,including coniferous forest and deciduous forest,are dominant land types in Central Jilin.During 2000–2019,the land changed diversely,of which the main changes were the expanded dryland(+0.43 million ha),the increased deciduous forest(+22 million ha),the decreased coniferous forest(–0.08 million ha),and the expanded urban settlement(+0.04 million ha).With these changes,despite the unit grain yield showing a rising trend,the yield contribution of Central Jilin to the national total decreased.The poor cultivating structure made for the cropland expansion and reduced the implementation space of environmental restoration projects such as the Grain to Green.Thus,in Central Jilin that transits from the agri-food production zone to the eco-regulation zone,environmental projects coexisted in a trade-off manner with agricultural policies that aim to liberate agricultural productivity.In the key urban agglomerations of Central Jilin,the increase in the proportion of green space improved the thermal environment and carbon balance.The gross domestic product of the large city and its local proportion also rose.These improvements benefited from the promotion of development policies and urbanization policies at key time points.In the future,it is necessary to coordinate agricultural policies and environmental projects and promote the progress of small-and medium-sized cities to ensure the equality of regional development.This study has implications for making decisions to revitalize Northeast China and researchers who inform decisions.

Application of Remote Sensing and GIS for Modeling and Assessment of Land Use/Cover Change in Amman/Jordan

Modeling and assessment of land use/cover and its impacts play a crucial role in land use planning and formulation of sustainable land use policies. In this study, remote sensing data were used within geographic information system (GIS) to map and predict land use/cover changes near Amman, where half of Jordan’s population is living. Images of Landsat TM, ETM+ and OLI were processed and visually interpreted to derive land use/cover for the years 1983, 1989, 1994, 1998, 2003 and 2013. The output maps were analyzed by using GIS and cross-tabulated to quantify land use/cover changes for the different periods. The main changes that altered the character of land use/cover in the area were the expansion of urban areas and the recession of forests, agricultural areas (after 1998) and rangelands. The Markov chain was used to predict future land use/cover, based on the historical changes during 1983-2013. Results showed that prediction of land use/cover would depend on the time interval of the multi-temporal satellite imagery from which the probability of change was derived. The error of prediction was in the range of 2%-5%, with more accurate prediction for urbanization and less accurate prediction for agricultural areas. The trends of land use/cover change showed that urban areas would expand at the expense of agricultural land and would form 33% of the study area (50 km×60 km) by year 2043. The impact of these land use/cover changes would be the increased water demand and wastewater generation in the future.