Northward Shift in Landfall Locations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during the Last Four Decades

This study analyzes landfall locations of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific during 1979–2018.Results demonstrate that the landfall locations of TCs over this region have shifted northward during the last four decades,primarily due to the shift of landfalling TC tracks,with the decreasing/increasing proportion of westward/northward TC tracks.In particular,the northward shift of the landfalling TCs was not related to their formation locations,which have not markedly changed,whereas"no-landed"TCs have significantly shifted northward.TC movement was significantly and positively correlated to the zonal component of the steering flow,while the correlation between TC movement and the meridional component of the steering flow was relatively unobvious.The westward steering flow in the tropical central Pacific that occurred around the formation and early development of the westward TCs was significantly weakened,which was unfavorable for their westward movement,thereby,causing the higher proportions of northward moving tracks.This weakened westward flow was related to the northward shift of the subtropical high ridge,which was caused by significant weakening of the southern part of the subtropical high.The vertical wind shear,sea surface temperature,and convective available potential energy also showed that the northern region of the western North Pacific became more favorable for TC development,whereas the upper divergence,low-layer relative vorticity,and accumulated water vapor content were not obviously related to the northward shift of TCs.

Influence of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover on interannual variability of Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks

Track density function(TDF)was computed for all Western North Pacific tropical cyclones(WNP TCs)tracks from 1950 to 2018,and the TDFs were further investigated using principal component analysis(PCA)to analyze their inter-annual spatial and temporal variability.Then,the relationships between each empirical orthogonal function(EOF)mode and the typhoon count,typhoon landfall count,track pattern,and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover(QXPSC)were examined,and the possible physical mechanisms implied by the statistical relationship were explored.The results show the QXPSC significantly affected the surface-atmosphere heat exchange through snow cover(SC)level,then changed the East Asian summer monsoon regional circulation pattern,influenced the subtropical high-pressure system strength and location,and ultimately affected the WNP TCs track patterns and thus changed their landfall locations.